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Americas Silver Corporation (USAS)

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Dan Thunderbolt, Apr 2, 2019.

  1. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Interesting reporting. At Cosala, the high grade 100M ozees will stay in the ground until a $25/oz floor is established. So, I wonder what the remaining reserve is and at what silver price they need to profitably mine it ? I'm assuming since it is lower grade it will stay in the ground much longer. So they expect annual production of 2.5M ozees, but we don't know when that will begin. But of course so much hinges on the silver price and that's what gives the mining stocks so much leverage over the PMs, like a derivative of the PMs. Luv it.
     
    #41 Onepoint272, Sep 28, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2019
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  2. Dan Thunderbolt

    Dan Thunderbolt Active Member

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    On Eric Sprott's Weekly Wrap Up Podcast Mr. Sprott takes the time each week towards the end of the segment to comment/highlight Precious Metals companies that he really likes. He spoke to his significant stake in USAS.

    The link is posted below. Mr. Sprott emphazised that the startup of the Relief Canyon mine will be a game changer for USAS and generate significant cash flow that will draw greater attention to the company.

    https://soundcloud.com/sprottmoney/sprott-money-news-weekly-wrap-up-92719
     
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  3. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

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  4. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    @Bodacious , curious how you get those S & Rs? I keep it simple and use the most obvious ones: the highs in an uptrend and lows in a downtrend. Sorry about scribbling on your chart.:oops:

    upload_2019-9-28_21-25-48.png
     
    #44 Onepoint272, Sep 28, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2019
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  5. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

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    #45 Bodacious, Sep 28, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2019
  6. Dan Thunderbolt

    Dan Thunderbolt Active Member

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    Onepoint272 likes this.
  7. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

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    Down again today, I'm looking to buy this at around 1.50.
     
  8. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    That would be a gift. The best I can figure with a 30-minute P&F is a target of 2.30. An ABCD gives 2.20 as a 1:1 extension and since it went thru the B-point with volume, the rule of thumb is that it will do a 1:1. To get down to $1.50 the CD leg would have to be extended to a 1.618 extension and that would be an extremely bullish entry. Of course I'm partial to a onepoint272 extension, but I think we need to pay close attention if the $2.20-2.30 area gets hit.

    The other complication that enters in, is that I think the silver contract has been undergoing rollover noise.

    upload_2019-9-30_22-34-35.png
     
    #48 Onepoint272, Sep 30, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2019
    T0rm3nted and bigbear0083 like this.
  9. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

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    A lot of turmoil in the markets with all the politics makes me think that norms don't have to be norms anymore. Precious metal prices go up and down like a yo-yo, and the street says buy now, which sounds to me like they are saying that anything can happen at any moment, w/o notice. This market is quite the conundrum, and, as you say, we should watch closely.:D
     
  10. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Great podcast. Thanks @Dan Thunderbolt, how timely. The CEO explains the rationale of the very point I was questioning earlier...re not going after high grade until silver prices get to $30. At Galena they can mine it at 15 to $20 silver but the board made a tough decision to wait for $30 silver. While EXE and AG continue to mine away, USAS has a different and longer term strategy that will pay off in a big way in the long term.
     
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  11. Dan Thunderbolt

    Dan Thunderbolt Active Member

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    Interesting take on the potential of Silver (and Gold)

    The Big Silver Shock: Is $150 a 'No Brainer'?
    02.10.2019
     
    #51 Dan Thunderbolt, Oct 3, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2019
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  12. Dan Thunderbolt

    Dan Thunderbolt Active Member

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    Silver Price Update - October 9, 2019 + Best Silver Setup in 3 Years
    October 9, 2019
    iGold Advisor
     
  13. Dan Thunderbolt

    Dan Thunderbolt Active Member

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    According to the Relief Canyon Technical Report and Feasibility Study the operations will generate the following Net after operating costs (Page 18 https://www.americas-gold.com/site/assets/files/5091/relief_tech_report_2018.pdf)

    Net after Operating Costs
    • Year 1: $24,064.5 (Total Gold Produced: 68,660 ounces)
    • Year 2: $37,815.7 (Total Gold Produced: 83,270 ounces)
    • Year 3: $38,741.9 (Total Gold Produced: 86,390 ounces)
    • Year 4: $25,607.8 (Total Gold Produced: 83,850 ounces)
    • Year 5: $38,089.2 (Total Gold Produced: 93,520 ounces)
    • Year 6: $81,392.8 (Total Gold Produced: 93,170 ounces)
    • Year 7: $998.1 (Total Gold Produced: 650 ounces)
    • Total: $246,710.1 (Total Gold Produced: 509.51 ounces)
    I did not include the amounts of Silver produced in the above overview. The model is based on $1,290 per ounce gold price and $16.75 per ounce silver price. As a result the net after operating costs is 40 % higher with today price of Gold $1,500 (AISC at Relief Canyon is $801).

    Current market cap of USAS is $230 million. I expect that a rerating will occur soon once they pour first Gold in December.
     
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  14. Dan Thunderbolt

    Dan Thunderbolt Active Member

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  15. Dan Thunderbolt

    Dan Thunderbolt Active Member

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  16. Dan Thunderbolt

    Dan Thunderbolt Active Member

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    Americas Gold and Silver Provides a Relief Canyon Construction Update and Reports Third Quarter Production Results
    November 01, 2019 07:00 AM
    https://www.businesswire.com/news/h...Gold-Silver-Relief-Canyon-Construction-Update

    "The third quarter was a busy and successful period for the Company. The Cosalá Operations continued its strong operational performance generating free cash flow, Relief Canyon construction significantly advanced toward first gold production this year and the Company increased its precious metal reserves by approximately 250% year over year,” said Americas President and CEO Darren Blasutti. “Furthermore, our creative transaction to joint venture the Galena Complex with Eric Sprott allowed us to couple Galena’s significant silver leverage with the necessary capital to grow silver reserves, increase silver production and reduce operating costs into a rising silver market over the next two years for the benefit of our shareholders."
     
  17. Dan Thunderbolt

    Dan Thunderbolt Active Member

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    The current market cap of USAS equals the Net Present value of the Relief Canyon project. USAS still has lots of upside imo.

     
  18. Dan Thunderbolt

    Dan Thunderbolt Active Member

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    The economics of Relief Canyon are very attractive even with a lower Gold price. With the current price of Gold of $1,460 the below numbers are around 35% higher. Lots of money to be made and about a month until first Gold pour...

     
  19. Dan Thunderbolt

    Dan Thunderbolt Active Member

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    Presentation: Americas Gold and Silver Corporation - 121 Mining Investment New York Autumn 2019
     
  20. Dan Thunderbolt

    Dan Thunderbolt Active Member

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