Dana Holding Corporation 3939 Technology Drive Maumee, OH 43537 United States 419-887-3000 http://www.dana.com Sector: Consumer Goods Industry: Auto Parts Full Time Employees: 23,800 Description Dana Holding Corporation manufactures and sells driveline, sealing, and thermal-management products for vehicle manufacturers in North America, Europe, South America, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates in four segments: Light Vehicle Driveline Technologies, Commercial Vehicle Driveline Technologies, Off-Highway Driveline Technologies, and Power Technologies. The Light Vehicle Driveline Technologies segment offers front axles, rear axles, driveshafts, differentials, torque couplings, and modular assemblies for use in light trucks, sport utility vehicles, crossover utility vehicles, vans, and passenger cars. The Commercial Vehicle Driveline Technologies segment provides Steer and drive axles, driveshafts, and tire inflation systems for medium and heavy duty trucks, buses, and specialty vehicles. The Off-Highway Driveline Technologies segment manufactures front and rear axles, driveshafts, transmissions, torque converters, tire inflation systems, and electronic controls for use in construction, earth moving, agricultural, mining, forestry, rail, and material handling applications. The Power Technologies segment offers gaskets, cover modules, heat shields, engine sealing systems, cooling products, and heat transfer products for light vehicle, medium/heavy vehicle, and off-highway markets. The company was founded in 1904 and is headquartered in Maumee, Ohio. Corporate Governance Dana Holding Corporation’s ISS Governance QuickScore as of July 1, 2016 is 3.The pillar scores are Audit: 1; Board: 3; Shareholder Rights: 4; Compensation: 4.
It would seem that my brand of analysis and Q2's earnings report seem to be very confluent right now. I mean hell, they are expecting a near 30% increase in EPS for the rest of 2016. Dana Reaffirms Above Estimates Dana Holding (DAN) reported 2nd Quarter June 2016 earnings of $0.53 per share on revenue of $1.5 billion. The consensus earnings estimate was $0.47 per share on revenue of $1.5 billion. Revenue fell 3.9% compared to the same quarter a year ago. The company said it continues to expect 2016 earnings of $1.65 to $1.75 per share on revenue of $5.80 billion to $6.00 billion. The current consensus earnings estimate is $1.63 per share on revenue of $5.75 billion for the year ending December 31, 2016. Dana Holding Corp provides technology driveline, sealing and thermal-management products for vehicle manufacturers in the light vehicle, medium/heavy vehicle and off-highway markets. https://www.earningswhispers.com/epsdetails/dan Weekly Chart with clear-cut positive divergence Demand Volume has increased after the double bottom Wyckoff Creek at $14.02 (confirmation if it breaks and holds), which is also an LVN (low volume node) First scale out target $17.21, but the 3 year POC (point of control) otherwise known as the "auction" is back at the 21 level. Based on the volume profile ("P" shaped) the move all the way down to 10 was short-term panic. When the POC doesn't "shift" downward, it lends to the idea that the move was false and a reversion back towards the mean will take place Approximate time frame for completion = 6 Months
A little update. Barclay's recently upgraded DAN to "overweight" and the price target increased from $12 to $20. Based on that existing long term POC, it comes as no surprise to me. https://www.thestreet.com/story/13743099/1/dana-dan-stock-closed-higher-after-barclays-upgrade.html The recent back-test of the open/close of the final week of 2015 at the $14.00 level was extremely important. Barely any selling turned up, which is a huge green signal to longs. Please note that it is also trading above the low of the absorption candle from October's sell climax, which saw a huge rush of buying/covering from $15 to $17. Again, the thesis here as that anyone who's still short will begin realizing they're on the wrong side of this trade and should have covered below $14.00. The unwinding of their short positions will contribute to the uptrend back to the POC. Q3 Earnings are on 10/20.
This stock is driving me fucking crazy. Been trying to snap that 15.80 level for 8-9 weeks now. Today we hit 16.05 and then some bull shit downgrade news from FBR Capital (to market perform) was released. Total manipulation going on ..... I don't care what FBR thinks. Price moved back within the volume profile bell curve from 2015 i.e. is jumped back inside the VAL (value area low). Because of this - reversion to the mean (21.50 point of control) should be inevitable. I need to just look away and forget about it. Let it work itself out.
In my post from July 29th, I detailed a first scale out target around the mid 17's ..... I of course didn't scale. Quite a bit of supply came free as today it tested a high of 17.95 and the market down over 10 handles compounds the problem. I really didn't anticipate this much supply - as I've always operated under the mindset that the bell curve of the volume profile takes precedent over simple horizontal resistances/lines ..... and in DAN's case full POC reversion. Feeling quite a bit of remorse from not locking in anything, but the intraday 2 hour chart has me wondering if there was some absorption today of the supply. I'll update with a chart at the end of the trading session ...... this sucks though watching it bleed almost 70 ticks off the high. Got that dreadful feeling I'll need to sell EOD or tomorrow.
Welp, here it is ........ As you can see it jammed up right at that horizontal line, which actually stretches back as far as 5 years. The daily chart finish was ugly as hell on elevated volume (buy climax). In hindsight, perhaps I should have given more credence to that horizontal resistance due to the HVN's in the vicinity. High volume nodes (while not as large as the point of control) still represent a lot of volume and built in resistance when trapped buyers there attempt to sell to breakeven. The intraday charts are what I'm not certain of at the moment - was that absorption/buying into the bell on those last and 2hour and 15mins candles? The other lingering question - more often than not a stock will close at its POC. In this case I was taking a trade based off of the 2015 volume profile structure (markets reference prior structures), but we're now less than 20 days until the end of 2016. Will DAN revert and try to close the year at the POC for 2016? Unlikely because it's at $13.17, but there is an HVN (high volume node) back around $15.50 EDIT: I need to re-address my prior comment about "More often than not a stock will close at its POC". This is essentially true IF a stock is in "balance" ...... i.e. is trading between the VAH (Value Area High) and the "Value Area Low" and the POC is somewhat neutrally located (think more towards the middle). For those unfamiliar withe VAH/VAL, think of a stock's movement like a bell curve (VAH at the top of the curve, VAL at the bottom, the POC is the mean). If there are multiple closes above the VAH or below the VAL on increased volume then it's typically assumed price will continue direction of the trend until finding/forming a new auction (POC).
I think it looks good. The volume at end of day was higher than beginning of day, so a good chance it was absorption. Perhaps just back-filled the gap today in a really down market.
I pretty much knew that the gap open to 17.95 would test downward a bit (previous open was 16.92. I just didn't think it would see this much. I mean they gapped it right to resistance - testing to see if there were naturally sellers and judging by the volume there definitely was quite a few of them. You're definitely right though - that volume escalated massively at the EOD. Crossing my fingers here ..... if it opens higher than today's close I'll show a little patience.
Interesting ..... Deutsche Bank upgraded DAN today from HOLD to BUY with a target of $16 - $20. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ud?bypass=true&s=DAN<r=1
At first glance that daily bar looks bearish but like you and ADA pointed out there was more than the usual end-of-day volume on Thursday indicating possible absorption. Looking at the weekly, there doesn't appear to have been a lot of cause built. Also, the $0.5 by 3-box-reversal PnF gives an upside target of 17.50. It reached a high of 17.95 today. But, I can't reliably calibrate the PnF on this one, so not too confident.
After further review of the 2 hour chart my thoughts are that 17.36 is the line in the sand. That is the level where there was a previous stop volume candle after a sell climax where buyers were trying to soak up supply. It ended up getting breached on an even larger sell climax - so if it breaks above, I'm fairly confident in the uptrend staying in tact. You can see it tested it again 3 candles ago.
Thank you DAN! As previously detailed, my ultimate target on this thing was a full reversion back to the 2015 POC (Point of Control) around 21.40 ............. but decided to take my 5,000 shares bought at $14.89 (as well as my parents position in their IRA) off the table @ $19.59. As you can see there is some horizontal resistance there. I just couldn't help myself after the spook it gave me last week. Either way, this is the longest position I've ever held, since transitioning into swing trading back in 2013. It's a huge step and reaffirms how powerful the volume profile is - specifically correctly analyzing the supply/demand in their bell curves. Most important of all is this gives me even more confidence in my own analysis, especially for higher time frames.
Not only did DAN completely revert back to the previous year's POC (as predicted), it went on to build support near those levels and form an inverse head/shoulders pattern. The measured move of the head to neck was approx. 9pts, which is the very same measurement of the breakout from the right shoulder - typical of those setups.
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