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Elliott Wave Analysis by EWF

Discussion in 'FOREX Forums' started by Elliottwave-Forecast.com, Mar 7, 2017.

  1. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

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    The Clorox Company (NYSE: CLX) is an American global manufacturer and marketer of consumer and professional products. Its's brands include its namesake bleach and cleaning products.
    During a pandemic, the demand for sanitizing products rises significantly which helped Clorox to avoid steep declines in the recent weeks as rest of the stock market was plunging down.

    The stock is currently up 30% year-to-date while SPX is -26% which made CLX as one of the few stocks which provided an edge for investors during this rough period of time. Can the stock really remain supported for long term ?

    Looking at the daily cycle from 2018 which the majority of stock ended triggering the larger correction, CLX has also traded higher into a target area which is presented with a blue box in the following chart between $197 - $231. Based on Elliott Wave Theory, after an impulsive 5 waves advance, the market reverse lower to correct the previous cycle within a 3 waves structure before resuming the rally within the main trend.

    In this case, CLX cycle from 2018 remain in progress as it's still didn't finish the 5 waves advance despite reaching the blue box in our chart which is a the High-frequency area where the Market is likely to end cycle and make a turn. However, investors needs to be careful at this stage as the stock is entering take profit territory and even further gains can still be seen in short term but it won't be the best time to try to chase the longside as the risk reward at this stage is becoming lower.

    CLX Daily Chart
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  2. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

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    Teladoc Health (NYSE: TDOC) is a multinational telemedicine and virtual healthcare company based in the United States. It offers an app-based medical consultations which present a safer solution for patient during the current pandemic conditions.

    The stock is obviously offering better options for investors compared to regular times as online services are getting a higher demand since last month. TDOC is still up 64% this year despite the majority of stock market being down an average of 25%.

    Taking a look at the Elliott Wave structure for the stock, we can notice that TDOC is currently still trading within an impulsive cycle since IPO and it's in the process of ending a 5 waves advance from 2016 low within wave (III) which already reached the target area at 100% Fibonacci extension level 121.52 and still can see 161,8% Fib Ext area at $170.8 before a larger 3 waves pullback takes place in wave (IV). The blue box presented in our chart is a High-frequency area where the instrument is likely to end cycle and make a turn as traders tend to take profits within that area.

    Consequently, Investors should be still looking for buying opportunity during the next daily correction because of the impulsive bullish nature of the the cycle which will present investment opportunity in the future when the stock corrects in 3 or 7 swings after ending the current 5 waves advance.

    TDOC Weekly Chart
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  3. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

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    U.S Dollar demand is so high as a result of the corona virus pandemic that now there's a squeeze in the credit market. The dollar soared this week as investors liquidated positions across a broad range of assets, including stocks, gold, and bonds, to meet margin calls and raise cash. . Big corporations around the world start to draw down billions from their credit lines. Foreign firms who borrowed in dollars scramble to secure the currency amid fears dollar revenues will dry up.

    To ease the squeeze in dollar's borrowing, the Fed introduced a series of steps. It lowers the rate on existing dollar swap lines with major central banks and increase the frequency of swap operations. The actions by the Fed helped to ease the funding crunch, but it's too early to say the dollar crunch is over.

    In the asset management world, the dollar is still the primary currency. The South Korean Won for example sank to a 10-year low even though Seoul has done a lot of right things. It has accumulated foreign currency reserves and reduce reliance on short-term external debt. It has also managed the pandemic much better than the West. With the uncertainty of the economic outlook, disruptions in U.S. funding markets can persist, and US Dollar can continue to strengthen.

    DXY (Dollar Index) Daily Elliott Wave Chart
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    US Dollar Index Elliott Wave chart above suggests that cycle from February 2018 remains incomplete. The rally is unfolding as a zigzag structure where wave a ended at 99.67 and wave b ended at 94.65. Potential minimum target for the move is 100% - 123.6% extension from February 2018 low which comes at 106.2 - 108.95. Near term, while pullback stays above 94.76, expect the Index to extend higher.
     
  4. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

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    Hello fellow traders. USDX is another instrument that we have been trading lately . In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of USDX, published in members area of the website. As our members know, USDX is showing bullish impulsive sequences in the cycle from the February 2018 low calling for further rally. Consequently, we advised members to avoid selling USDX and keep on buying the dips in the sequences of 3,7,or 11 swings whenever get chance. In further text we’re going to explain Elliott Wave Forecast and Trading strategy.

    USDX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 3.20.2020
    Currently we’re doing wave (4) blue pull back against the 97.48 low. Pull back can be unfolding as Elliott Wave Zig Zag Pattern, when we could have ended first leg A red of (4) blue. After B red bounce completes, we expect another leg down to complete proposed pull back.We don't recommend selling and favor the long side. However we need to wait for clear 3 waves down from the peak before we could measure equal legs-buy zone.

    You can learn more about Elliott Wave Zig Zag Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.

    [​IMG]

    USDX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 3.20.2020
    B red ended as a shallow recovery and we got another leg down C red as expected. USDX has already reached potential reversal area- buying zone. At the marked Blue Box area : 101.212-100.57 area we expect buyers to appear for proposed rally or 3 waves bounce at least. We don’t recommend selling it and favor the long side. As the main trend is bullish, we expected to get a 3 waves bounce from the Blue Box at least. As soon as the price reaches 50 Fibs against the B red high, we should make Long Positions risk free.



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    USDX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 3.21.2020
    USDX found buyers at 101.212-100.57 , the Blue Box area. We got nice reaction from there so far. At this stage we are calling wave (4) blue pull back completed at 101.06low. However we would like to see further extension higher and break above 03/20 high to confirm next leg up is in progress. Otherwise break below current short term low :101.065 would open possibility for a deeper correction. Anyway, all longs from the blue box should be risk free at this stage.

    Keep in mind that market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site.

    [​IMG]

    Elliott Wave Forecast
     
  5. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

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    In this blog, we are going to take a look at the Elliottwave chart of USDNOK. The chart from March 13 London update shows that the cycle from March 9, 2020 low unfolded as 5 waves impulsive structure. The rally in wave ((iii)) ended at 10.2785 high. Based on Elliottwave theory, a 3 waves pullback should happen before the rally to the upside resume. While above 9.4185 low, the pullback in 3,7, or 11 swings is expected to find support. Wave ((iv)) pullback unfolded as a zig-zag. The 100% extension of wave (a)-(b) where wave (c) can end is at 9.8413 -9.9948 area. We showed this area with a blue box. The blue box is the area where we expect buyers to appear for an extension higher or 3 waves bounce at least.

    USDNOK 3.13.2020 1 Hour London Elliott Wave Update
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    We adjusted the count on the chart below from March 17 NY update. Instead of wave ((iv)), the pullback is within wave 4. However, the chart shows that the pair found buyers within the blue box and ended the pullback at 9.8799 low. From there, the pair extended higher and broke above previous wave 3 high, confirming that the next rally higher has started. As long as the pivot at 9.8799 low stays intact, the pair can continue to extend higher.

    USDNOK 3.17.2020 1 Hour New York Elliott Wave Update
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    The chart from March 20 London update shows that USDNOK extended higher and ended wave (3) at 12.1283 high. The pair then did a bigger pullback in wave (4). This pullback unfolded as another zig-zag. The 100% extension of wave A-B is showed with a blue box between 10.3538-10.8245 area. As long as the 1.618 extension level stays intact, the pair is expected to find support in the blue box area.

    USDNOK 3.20.2020 1 Hour London Elliott Wave Update
    [​IMG]

    Chart update from March 22 weekend update shows that buyers continue to respect the blue box area. Wave (4) pullback ended within the blue box at 10.7929 low and bounced higher from there. While above 10.7929 low, the pair can continue to extend higher in wave (5) and make new highs. However, USDNOK needs to break above previous wave (3) high at 12.1283 high to confirm that the next leg higher is in progress and to avoid doing a double correction in wave (4).

    USDNOK 3.22.2020 1 Hour Weekend Elliott Wave Update
    [​IMG]
     
  6. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

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    European Union Carbon prices occupy the brains of public in Europe since many years. Under EU guidelines, participating organizations have to purchase the emission allowances from others or they can sell their leftovers. This has to occur, therefore, in function of the efficiency of reducing greenhouse gases by every participant. Ideally, the future prices on carbon emissions $EUA should depend on fundamentals: politics, real economy etc. A quick view on the chart below, however, shows that that is not the case. Indeed, the prices demonstrate clearly recognizable Elliott Wave patterns representing the mass psychology of the traders. Therefore, it is a further example of a price chart where a technical analysis may give an answer on what may happen next.

    [​IMG]

    Carbon Prices Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis 03.24.2020
    Weekly Chart of $EUA Futures above shows a cycle up in red wave 1 of a cycle degree from April 2013 lows which has printed a top on July 2019 at 30 € / t CO2. One can recognize the cycle internals as 5-3-5-3-5 impulsive Elliott Wave structure with an extension in the black wave ((3)). Even though rare within the same cycle, both the waves ((1)) and ((5)) apear to unfold as diagonal structures.

    From the July 2019 highs, the carbon prices have pulled back in an impulsive wave ((A)). Thereafter, sideways action in form of a converging triangle ((B)) has resolved in a thrust lower as wave ((C)) below 16 €. 5 waves up from 2013 lows and 3 waves lower from 2019 highs call for another swing higher. This is required to complete the bullish sequence. Alternatively, it may extend as a red wave 3 of an impulse to the upside. Such an acceleration would ultimatively call for a wave 4 and a wave 5 within a larger cycle.

    Carbon Prices Outlook
    As for now, the extension in black wave ((C)) has already reached the equal legs area with the black wave ((A)) at 16.6 - 12.0. From the blue box area (s. chart), where the buyers are expected to enter the market, the price is expected to bounce to resume the rally to the new highs above 30 € towards 40-45 € area. If the bounce would, however, fail in 3 waves, another low in a double three pattern may happen. Since the correction lower has already retraced more than 50% of the cycle up, a double three is less probable.
     
  7. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

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    Elliott Wave view in Ten Year Notes (ZN_F) suggests that it has a bullish sequence from October 2018 low, favoring more upside. Near term, rally to 140.24 ended wave I and pullback to 133.2 ended wave II. Internal of wave II unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 140.24, wave ((W)) ended at 135.25 and bounce in wave ((X)) ended at 138.3. The next leg lower in wave ((Y)) ended at 133.22 which also completed wave II.

    The Notes has turned higher in wave III. However, it needs to break above wave I at 140.24 to avoid a double correction. Up from 133.2, wave (1) ended at 135.3 and pullback in wave (2) ended at 134.18. The Notes then extended higher in wave (3) towards 138, and wave (4) pullback ended at 137.06. Finally, wave (5) of ((1)) is proposed complete at 138.18.

    The Notes is now within wave ((2)) to correct cycle from March 19 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing and while the pullback stays above there, expect the Notes to extend higher. We don't like selling the Notes. Potential target higher is 100% - 123.5% Fibonacci extension from October 2018 low which comes at 142.28 - 146.1 area.

    Ten Year Notes (ZN_F) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
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  8. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

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    In this article, we will look at the American Airlines (AAL) to make sense of the recent huge volatility in the stock market. The world faces a tremendous crisis due to the pandemic created by the Corona virus. The financial markets consequently have entered a tremendous selling pressure. As it always happens, some sectors always get hit the hardest when compared to others. The transportation sector got hit pretty hard and companies like Royal Carribean, General Motors, Boeing, Carnival Cruise Line are all taking a dive lower.

    We at EWF have been tracking all those companies and they are all in Grand Super cycle correction. However, we have found out one stock correcting a lower cycle degree which is American Airlines (AAL). Back in 2008 , the stock formed a grand super cycle low at $1.45 per share. Since then it shows a very nice 5 waves advance and then a clear three waves pullback. Below is the structure of 5 waves advance and 3 waves correction:

    [​IMG]

    The basic pattern of the Elliott Wave Theory is that market trends in five waves and pullback in three waves. The theory provides three simple rules :
    1. Wave 2 can not pass the beginning of wave 1.
    2. Wave 3 can not be the shortest of the three impulses.
    3. Wave 4 can not overlap with the top of wave 1.

    The five waves advance each subdivides into another five waves of lesser degree. All the previous rules need to apply to the 5 waves in lesser degree as well. Wave 2 and Wave 4 needs to subdivide in three waves. The flexible guidelines allow various interpretations / alternate counts which some people believe make it subjective to interpretation. To mitigate this problem, we have created a system which relates the instrument across the market in cycles. With this additional correlation analysis across the market, we can better assign probability of several different scenarios, therefore getting the right Elliott Wave count. Thus, we apply a lot of critical thinking to the theory and consequently the way we trade.

    Getting back to American Airlines (AAL), we can see a five wave advance since 2008. The following chart below shows the move higher:

    American Airlines (AAL) Elliott Wave Monthly Chart
    [​IMG]

    We have divided the chart above into two colors, blue and gray. The blue cycle represents the grand supercycle, which ended in 2006, It then pullback in 3 waves. which ended in 2008. AAL then started to turn higher and rally, but it never took a peak in 2006. This is a very important observation. The idea that 2006 high is still holding means the advance since 2008 is a lesser degree cycle. In terms of Elliott Wave, the advance is in super cycle degree.

    The advance is a clear nine swing advance which can be calculated adding the subdivision of the extended wave III. The stock ended the cycle since 2008 and now pulling back in an ABC which already is at the final stage. Again, a very technical advance and decline. As we said before, we use also a lot of critical thinking at EWF. We look at AAL and understand the way the market moves. Although nothing is impossible, it's hard to see the stock doing a corrective 3 swing from 2006 peak. The reason is if it trades below the 2008 low at $1.45, the 100% extension from 2006 peak will bring the stock to below zero. Using the logic or critical thinking, AAL is too big to fail at this time, same with Royal Carribean, General Motors, Boeing, and Carnival Cruise. As always, nobody knows the future but doing the same over and over makes the difference between a winning trader and the one which does not last.
     
  9. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

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    The Energy Industry has had a some rough waters for the past few years with Chevron also participating in the rout. However, the current technicals on the chart suggest a major low is possible in 2020. Recently, a lot has happened in the oil industry, OPEC+ (which included Russia) has been all but abandoned. A day after Russia had rejected the idea of new cuts, Saudi Arabia decided to wage a full on war in oil . The aftermath was stunning with CL_F having dropped from the previous close of $41.05 to a $20.52 recent low. With all this said, CL in addition to the energy industry looks to print an important low in 2020.

    Chevron Weekly Elliott Wave View
    [​IMG]

    CVX has a very bullish long term view. It is favoured to have a 5 waves up for wave Black ((I)) set on July 1, 2014. From there, a Double Correction appears to be taking place with an equal legs target from 68.55 to 28.05. Price is within the blue box, where buyers may come into the market for a 3 waves bounce at least.



    Chevron Elliott Wave Daily
    [​IMG]

    In daily, the current expectation is for a wave ((4)) to materialize soon. From there, a wave ((5)) down to complete the wave red c of blue (Y) of Black ((II)) is expected to take place.
     
  10. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

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    Short Term Elliott Wave view in S&P 500 (SPX) suggests that cycle from February 20, 2020 high has ended at 2199.5 low as wave a. Internal of wave a unfolded as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from February 20 high, wave ((1)) ended at 2855.84 and wave ((2)) bounce ended at 3136.72. The Index then resumed lower in wave ((3)) towards 2280.52 with internal also unfolding as 5 waves in lesser degree.

    Down from wave ((2)) at 3136.72, wave (1) of ((3)) ended at 2976.63 and wave (2) of ((3)) bounce ended at 3130.97. Wave (3) of ((3)) ended at 2734 and correction in wave (4) of ((3)) ended at 2882.59. Final move wave (5) of ((3)) ended at 2280.52. Index then corrected in wave ((4)) which ended at 2466.97. Finally, wave ((5)) of a is proposed complete at 2199.5.

    SPX has started to recover and the initial rally looks to be unfolding as a 5 waves which should end wave ((A)). It should then pullback in wave ((B)) before turning higher again 1 more leg in wave ((C)) of b. Near term, while pullback stays above 2199.5, expect the Index to extend higher at least 1 more leg.

    S&P 500 (SPX) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
    [​IMG]
     
  11. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

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    In this technical blog, we are going to take a look at the past chart's performance of Nikkei an index from Japan. But before looking into the Charts, we need to understand the market nature first. The market always fights between the two sides i.e Buying or Selling. We at Elliott Wave Forecast understand the Market Nature and always recommend trading the Elliott wave hedging or no enemy areas. Those areas are reflected as the blue box areas on our charts. They usually give us the reaction in favor of market direction in 3 swings at least. Now, let us take a quick look at the Nikkei 1 Hour Charts and structure below:

    Nikkei 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 3.20.2020
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    Nikkei 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart from 3/20/2020 NY update. In which, the decline from December 2019 peak unfolded in 5 waves impulse structure. While the index ended wave ((3)) in a lesser degree 5 waves impulse sequence at 16060 low. Up from there, the index made a 3 wave bounce in wave ((4)). The internals of that bounce unfolded as a flat structure where wave (A) ended in 3 swings at 17570. Wave (B) ended at 16205 low and wave (C) ended in 5 waves structure at 18215. After seeing sellers at the blue box area i.e 17592-18524 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of (A)-(B). From there, the index was expected to resume the downside or to do a 3 wave reaction lower at least.

    Nikkei 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 3.23.2020
    [​IMG]



    Here's the 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart of Nikkei from 3/23/2020 London update. In which, the index is showing the reaction lower taking place from the blue box area. And end up making new low below the previous low & bounced higher again. However, it's important to note that based on cycles & the distribution. We downgraded the degree & labeled the last decline as a part of ((3)) still.
     
  12. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

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    Everbridge (NASDAQ: EVBG) is a company that sells communications services for notifications of emergencies. It helps businesses and governments respond to crises and threats like network outages, terrorism, active shooters, and severe weather.

    During the current pandemic, Everbridge's service demand rose significantly which supported its stock price to rally to new all timer highs breaking above 2019 peak. The move higher was important for the weekly cycle as it allowed the stock to create a new bullish sequence from IPO low.

    The Initial rally from 2016 unfolded as an impulsive 5 waves advance which reached a peak at $104.2 in August of last year. Down from there, a correction in a 3 waves Zigzag structure took place which managed to find buyers at extreme blue box area $64 - $49 from where it managed to resume the rally within the main bullish cycle.

    EVBG rallied more than 100% from September 2019 low and established a new cycle to the upside with a target at equal legs area $164 - $228. Consequently, the pullbacks at this stage is expected to remain supported and find buyers within corrective structures in 3, 7 or 11 swings against $59.85 low.

    EVBG Daily Chart
    [​IMG]

    EVBG Weekly Chart
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  13. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

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    Short Term Elliott Wave view in Apple (AAPL) suggests that cycle from February 13, 2020 high has ended at 212.6 low as wave w. Internal of wave a unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure Down from February 13 high, wave (W)) ended at 256.37 and wave ((X)) bounce ended at 304.15. The Index then resumed lower in wave ((Y)) towards 212.6 which also ended wave w in larger degree. This move ended the cycle from February 13 high.

    Stock is now correcting cycle from February 13 high within wave x. The correction is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure where wave ((A)) of this zigzag has ended at 259.9. Internal of wave ((A)) unfolded as 5 waves impulse where wave (1) ended at 227.1 and pullback in wave (2) ended at 217.02. Stock then resumes higher in wave (3) towards 243.44 and wave (4) pullback ended at 236.54. Finally, last move higher in wave (5) of ((A)) ended at 259.90.

    Wave ((B)) pullback is now in progress to correct cycle from March 23 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes. While pivot at March 23 low (212.6) stays intact, expect the stock to extend higher.

    Apple (AAPL) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
    [​IMG]
     

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