I'm Back... Questions about the When to Buy?

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by ddebrazza, Mar 13, 2022.

  1. ddebrazza

    ddebrazza Active Member

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    Hello Friends, after being broke there for quite some time, I have finally gotten myself back into a position to start investing again. I have been following the Russia-Ukraine conflict almost obsessively, as been paying attention to the stock market in turn.

    Many stocks have already hit 52-week lows or are very close and to me, this poses a good potential buy opportunity, no? what are you guys' thoughts on the current market and the future?

    I was thinking of making the following move Monday- Tuesday while keeping a close ear on any possible agreement between Russia and Ukraine for a ceasefire, which could come as early as Monday.

    Here are the buys I was thinking:
    FB- Meta @ 187.00
    MCHP- Microchip Technologies @ 69.10
    PTON- Peloton @21.15 *my gamble stock, just 1-2 shares)
    ALLY- Ally Financial @41.38
    RUN- SunRun @29.22
    PYPL- PayPal @95.82
    KKR- KKR @52.07

    What do ya'll think

    I should be back to spending a decent amount of time. Hoping to start work next week and start saving a bit each week.

    Crypto has not been kind to me over the last 12-13 months, I am down about 20% there but still positive on the longterm outlook.
     
  2. ddebrazza

    ddebrazza Active Member

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    What are your views on how the conflict ends and when do you think the markets will start trending back up again??
     
  3. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    My method of picking stocks, successful for the most part, is different from most. I looked at both ally and fb and I think they are plausible.

    • Both are below what analyst see as the 12 month low and you would do well should it reach the median
    • Fb seems to have dropped mostly since the invasion. Depending on how long this goes for, you may have to wait a while before seeing it move
    • Remember that stocks in general were weak in jan and feb, before the invasion. I think there are plenty of good stocks that are cheap right now. Hd for example is more than 20% down right now ytd.
    • I don't have time to look at fundamentals right now. You should before you buy. I know ally but I don't even know what fb makes or does.

     
    #3 gtrudeau88, Mar 14, 2022
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2022
  4. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    I think the conflict will last at bare minimum something like 6 months. I think the market will start adjusting soon, but that's just a guess. I'm a believer that it doesn't really impact us here in the west for the most part, in fact it should overall be profitable in the long-term. I'm pumping as much in to my 401k right now as I can.
     
  5. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    I'm looking for stuff too, watching what happens today.
    Looks like last week March 8 may have been the worst of things.
     
  6. Value543

    Value543 Well-Known Member

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    Welcome back!

    Some of those names -- specifically FB & PYPL based purely on the fact I'm also tracking them -- are so beaten down compared to their sector peers. To me, this suggests that while I firmly believe the market has a lot more room to go down, those names in particular have already been hammered to death. Therefore, those names should see comparatively less downside. AAPL is tettering & has not seen 50% destruction like FB has...when it falls, you'll see big % drops there, but lesser % loses in FB since it's already down 50%. I hope that makes sense...

    I'd personally add ZM to your list. But of note, I am approaching all of these from a technical perspective vs. an investment perspective. In other words, I have zero thoughts or even opinion on FB, PYPL, or ZM's fundamentals & whether or not those fundamentals signal they'll go to $0. They will bounce if / before they do...and when they do, I believe the bounce will be epic (as is often the case when a stock goes to $0, frankly).
     
  7. ddebrazza

    ddebrazza Active Member

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    Wow, this forum has slowed down quite a bit since I last was here....

    Thank you for the feedback. Based on my own research and massive amount of time studying various data, I cant see this conflict going more than another month. I dont think Russia can stand another month of sanctions, domestic turmoil, and losses on the battlefield. I think they will look to end this conflict relatively quickly. But, I could be wrong....

    I went ahead and pulled the trigger on Monday on FB, PYPL, ALLY, KKR, AMZN, TSLA, and CRWD (CrowdStrike)

    So far, all are in the green. Anywhere from (+0.5% ALLY) to (+4.65% TSLA), up +2.4% overall

    I just saw too much opportunity to not try to put some skin in the game.... Hopefully it pays off.

    Any other stocks to like?

    @Value543 ; really with ZM? I see that as another Peloton, a business drastically supported by the Pandemic. Im staying away from ZM for now.
     
  8. Value543

    Value543 Well-Known Member

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    Yes indeed, it certainly has...but in a way, I think it feels more connected because the core group is smaller & interacts more.



    If you got a stomach for risk, you cannot beat some of the Chinese stocks right now. They've been :horse: to unbelievable levels. I'd take a look at KWEB since it is 1) an ETF; and 2) converting it's shares to Hong Kong. But again...only if you can stomach risk!



    Yup, really with ZM -- as I said, I'm not investing in it...I'm positioning for a technical bounce.
     
  9. andyvds

    andyvds Active Member

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    Might be a good time to step into TQQQ.
     
  10. ddebrazza

    ddebrazza Active Member

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    Well, so far my moves made Monday have paid off and I am up 11% on the week so far. Not bad to make 71$ off of just 650$.

    I have another 150$ to put into play possibly tomorrow depending on what things look like, those sweet deals are quickly starting to disappear. Even though some are down as much as 50%, I dont anticipate a full recovery to those levels, maybe level out around the 20-25% mark.

    Crypto has absolutely killed me over the last 12 months, hopefully this next year shows at least SOME recovery on the crypto markets.

    Tomorrows moves are leaning towards:
    DKNG- DraftKings (20$)
    MFST- Microsoft (70$)
    CRM- Salesforce (50$)
     

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