First of all, anyone who gets angry at me for this prediction is an indicator that you're a damn moron. I have not written who I want to win, only who I believe will win. I think there is an extremely reasonable chance the election could go: Harris, House - Democrat, Senate - Democrat I give this outcome a 70% chance. While I don't consider this a nightmare scenario, it will undoubtedly bring some problems. Democrats seem to generally be in favor of drugs, decriminalized theft, and wholesale spending. That has absolutely ruined every city which has tried it but there is zero chance those cautionary tales will slow anyone's (MJ) roll. For reference, I cite: Portland, San Francisco, New York It will undoubtedly be short lived, perhaps one election cycle, once bad stuff starts happening. If Democrats could stay reasonably close to the center, I would be cool with them. For the record, my view on Republicans is identical. This is not a situation in which I will go heavily into the market. I will continue exactly as I have, heavily in fixed income. DRIPS off. Selling nothing. Any other points of view, preferably in contrast to mine?
Portland, SF, and New York are extremely wealthy, highly productive cities that are innovation hubs. We can only hope that the cities of Alabama, Missouri, and Tennessee were so ruined. In any case, the influence of who controls the government vs. the stock market is largely exaggerated. Both parties are highly incentivized to keep the market up. Minor changes in tax policy, regulatory policy, and even spending policy have minor effects, and there are often 2nd and 3rd-order effects that neutralize the primary one. I do think there is a bigger worry if DJT becomes President because he is so erratic and has such dictatorial tendencies; I don't know if our systems would hold this time. Markets get very scared when law and order are threatened, and putting a convicted felon and rapist in power is a good way to do that.
There are different strategies that I have to deal with different economic situations. Any given economic situation can definitely be influenced - sometimes drastically so - by a President, the Congress and the government - separately or in concert. I don't know what the future will bring, but I will act accordingly as it unfolds, and more information becomes available. I have no confidence in either party, or any government that I know much about, especially not any governments of countries that are big enough to make a real difference in geopolitical economics and power. Enjoy whatever freedom you have left. A government near you is coming for it, and once it's gone, it's gone!
To me, this is a good sound bite that is too often untrue. During WWII, the US government fractured private society with takeover, seizures, rations, etc. After the war ended...it went away. During Covid, we had lockdowns, mandates, curfews...and now those are gone.
