Macro perspective - peak population

Discussion in 'Investing' started by TomB16, Jul 4, 2024 at 8:35 PM.

  1. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2018
    Messages:
    4,431
    Likes Received:
    2,710
    We are on the cusp of peak global population. UN predicts peak population of roughly 10B in 2083.

    Some clever folks have sifted through UN population models to discover it is complete bullshit, built in misdirection. Forget 10B and 2083.

    It seems more likely, Earth will peak in the late 2030s. That's 12~15 years from now.

    North America has a growing population due exclusively to immigration. North American birthrates are WAY below 2 children per couple.

    It seems more likely birth rates will arrive at about 1.2 per couple and do so within the next 15 years. To make matters worse, death rates are up sharply, starting in 2021.

    If this research turns out to be well founded, it might affect me. It will definitely affect younger people.
     
  2. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2018
    Messages:
    4,431
    Likes Received:
    2,710
    What does this mean....

    If North America should lose it's wealth advantage over the world, it could become difficult to attract immigration. It will probably look like an economic downturn that causes a cessation of immigration which causes an economic armageddon.

    The sky is not falling. We are not at peak global population and we have India to thank for that. They are breeding like rabbits. Every other nation is shrinking, including China.

    I believe this casts suspicion on the theory the stock market will grow forever.
     

Share This Page