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Market Poll: What is the next major move from here?

Cy's official Stockaholics thread archives group.

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What do you think will be the next major move in this market from here?

  1. Higher.

    50.0%
  2. Lower.

    50.0%
  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    OK, so I have been meaning to set up a poll on here for a quite some time now.

    I thought it would be very interesting to gauge market sentiment here as we head into year end, and into 2020.

    Unless you have been living under a rock for the past few years, you'll know that this market, while volatile at times, has been trading at the same levels as it has for the past 2 years now!

    We seem to get these marginally new highs, but no real meaningful breakout higher. Same with the downside.

    So it just begs the question, what do you think will be the "catalyst" that'll break us out of this 2-year trading range either significantly and meaningfully higher or lower from here?

    We know this market can be quite sensitive to headlines, particularly relating to trade.

    Anytime we get a little whiff of "good news" and progress on the trade front, the market takes it very well, just cue today as an example, as we once again (for what seems like an umpteenth amount of times over the past year now :p).

    I guess what I'm also also wondering is when/if we will ever see "headline fatigue".

    It doesn't seem so, as markets still seem to react to Trump's every tweets. :p

    Anyway, please feel free to throw in your input in here along with your vote at the top of this thread for what you think will be the next major market move from here.

    Would be cool to exchange some thoughts and input in here and not just solely a "vote".

    Apologies for this wall of text here.

    Let's hear what you all have to say. ;)

    Thanks.
     
  2. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Went with lower. I'd give my reason, but I know we try to avoid politics on this board. To keep it simple and avoid controversy, I'll just say I believe the market will see a big pullback due to the impeachment inquiry. I'll avoid my thoughts on how the inquiry plays out.
     
    bigbear0083 likes this.
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    BTW, I know I wasn't very specific with the poll at the top.

    But, I thought you guys can probably figure it out.

    Higher = a move above the upper end of the trading range that we've been in for the past 2 years in a meaningful way. Basically a move over the ATHs that doesn't pullback down into the range again.

    or...

    Lower = testing the lows, and lower, maybe even dipping into an official bear territory (-20% or lower).

    This is kind of a longer term sentiment poll rather than the shorter term ones I used to make here.
     
  4. Three Eyes

    Three Eyes 2018 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Voting LOWER.

    Impeachment, trade, elections, cooling economy, and the resulting tweets ....all these things suggest at minimum a range-bound market. Could be some new ATHs along the way, but like the highs of past 2 years they won't spring equity prices higher to the next tier with no looking back. Could be a good time to harness the volatility and selectively build positions for beyond 2020! :D

    The upcoming earnings season should be interesting, not so much for the Q-2-Q or Y-O-Y comparisons, but for upcoming quarters and 2020 guidance.
     
    bigbear0083 likes this.
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    back to the top in case anyone missed this thread yesterday
     
  6. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    LOL I've been wondering what the heck is going to happen too recently. And I was wondering if you'd do a poll or if I was the only one. The big thing I'm wondering about is a recession. I think only a recession would take us lower.

    I'm just not seeing a recession right now, but I know the prerequisites are there (eg yield curve inversion). The only things that settle the bull inside me are 1) sometimes you get the signals but the recession doesn't come (they are necessary but not sufficient), and 2) there's "supposed" to be a market peak before the fall.

    The Baltic Dry Index is not signalling any problems (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND); 52-week range 595 - 2518 currently 1873.

    I'm not sure we get a recession in 2020, but I've got to be prepared.
     
  7. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

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