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Nail the #! Predict the November 2018 NFP Jobs Report

Cy's official Stockaholics thread archives group.

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How many new jobs added in November 2018? CONSENSUS = 200K.

Poll closed Dec 7, 2018.
  1. -50K to +50K

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. +51K to +100K

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. +101K to +125K

    33.3%
  4. +126K to +150K

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  5. +151K to +175K

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. +176K to +200K

    33.3%
  7. +201K to +225K

    33.3%
  8. +226K to +250K

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  9. +251K to +275K

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  10. +276K or higher

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

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    Tomorrow morning on 12/7/18 @ 8:30am eastern time we'll get the November read of the NFP's (Non-Farm Payrolls) jobs report. So, just for fun here let's see who can nail the closes range on predicting Friday's headline #! :D

    The consensus estimate as of this very moment is for +200K.

    What say you Stockaholics?

    PLEASE CLICK IN YOUR VOTE ON THE POLL AT THE TOP OF THIS THREAD AND ALSO POST YOUR VOTE TO THIS THREAD.

    This poll will close right up to the release of the report @ 8:30am eastern time Friday morning.
     
  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    November Employment Report Preview
    Dec 6, 2018

    Heading into Friday’s Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for November, economists are expecting an increase in payrolls of 198K, which would be a decline from October’s report which came in above expectations at 250K. In the private sector, economists are expecting an increase of 200K, which would imply a similar decline versus October as the headline reading. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.7%. Average hourly earnings are expected to grow at a rate of 0.3% versus the 0.2% reading last month. Higher wage growth is probably not something this market wants to see, but with expectations already anticipating some increase, it would have to be a big jump to really have a negative impact on the market. Finally, average weekly hours are expected to be unchanged at 34.5.

    [​IMG]

    Ahead of the report, we just published our eleven-page preview of the November jobs report. This report contains a ton of analysis related to how the equity market has historically reacted to the monthly jobs report, as well as how secondary employment-related indicators we track looked in November. We also include a breakdown of how the initial reading for November typically comes in relative to expectations and how that ranks versus other months.

    One topic we cover in each month’s report is the S&P 500 stocks that do best and worst from the open to close on the day of the employment report based on whether or not the report comes in stronger or weaker than expected. In other words, which stocks should you buy, and which should you avoid? The table below highlights the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 from the open to close on days when the Non-Farm Payrolls report has been better than expected over the last two years.

    Of the top performing stocks on days when NFP beats expectations, ten sectors are represented, but Consumer Discretionary leads the way with nine. Vornado (VNO) has been the best performing stock with an average open to close gain of 2.11%, but six of the next seven stocks are from the Consumer Discretionary sector. In terms of consistency, just three stocks (Ulta Beauty, Cognizant, and WestRock) have been in the black more than three-quarters of the time.

    [​IMG]
     
  3. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    Gonna go 201-225
     
  4. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

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    +176K to +200K :D ADP this morning looks a little softer than they were in the past few months, so I am guessing we will see solid but not great headline numbers :p
     
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    i'm going for a fairly big miss for tomorrow's #

    +101K to +125K

    adp missed (albeit not large) coupled with a few other mixed data in november has me leaning toward a miss here.

    i think markets may actually take it in stride so long wage growth isn't too terribly hot though :p
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

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    Russell 2000 Up 10 Straight on December Jobs Day
    [​IMG]
    Tomorrow morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its Employment Situation report for November. Depending upon your preferred source, the consensus estimate is for a gain of approximately 200,000 net new nonfarm jobs. This would be even stronger than the 179,000 that ADP reported earlier today. Historically, the market has responded favorably to the jobs report released in December. S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 have all advanced fourteen times in the last seventeen years. DJIA’s record has one more loss. Average gains range from a low of 0.46% by DJIA to 0.81% by Russell 2000.
    [​IMG]
    Tomorrow’s jobs report will be the last one the Fed will see before they meet later this month. Currently, there is right around a 75% chance the Fed will hike rates again at it December meeting according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. A weaker jobs report could lessen the probability of another hike, but it does appear the Fed will likely hike regardless in December and instead shift focus onto 2019. Unemployment is low, and inflation appears to be under control, but economic growth is not exactly running away. The flattening (slightly inverted) Treasury yield curve also seems to be signaling that it may be time for the Fed to pause, but probably not until next year.
     

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