NFLX - Netflix

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Stockaholic, Mar 31, 2016.

  1. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Looks like not ready for that move above $575 yet.
     
  2. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Looks like it found the support at $500 on that dip

    upload_2021-3-23_9-52-20.png
     
  3. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Watching for a break above May highs
     
  4. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Strong move today with volume. ER in 6 days.
     
  5. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    It feels like a sell-the-news event is coming up.
     
  6. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) shares experienced unusual options activity on Wednesday. The stock price moved up to $552.98 following the option alert.

    • Sentiment: BULLISH
    • Option Type: TRADE
    • Trade Type: PUT
    • Expiration Date: 2021-07-30
    • Strike Price: $552.50
    • Volume: 246
    • Open Interest: 1
    Three Ways Options Activity Is ‘Unusual'
     
  7. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Looks like they're selling before the news too. The day after my post, there was a bearish engulfing candle with even more volume.

    Looks like it was just filling the gap from last ER before selling into the next one.

    Bullish trade with Puts, so they sold the $552.50 puts? Yikes...but the buyer of those puts is smiling.
     
  8. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    This is the big news, and of course the general population is missing the point. They don't need to try to make AAA Call of Duty-type games. More along the lines of Farmville; free to play with option of paying for amenities.

    Along the lines of Disney+ having "premium access" movies, Netflix is looking to add extra income on top of their base. Games that allow "in-app" purchases coming to Netflix is a possibility. Also not a bad idea, Netflix has always said they are competing with other companies for individuals' time.

    They are beyond the streaming wars, they are in the time/attention wars and this involves the whole interwebs.
     
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  9. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    "Netflix shares crater 20% after company reports it lost subscribers for the first time in more than 10 years" - CNBC

    Well no shit... how about you drop your prices instead of increasing them every few months.
     
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  10. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    This has been a brutal beatdown. But I think NFLX will rebound to fill this gap, up to $320+. That's +40% from $225 currently.
     
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  11. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Yeah, this is oversold panic here.
     
  12. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Took a year, and in fact went down to $160-170. But one of the big gaps from 2022 has been filled.

    Through it all, NFLX has held this trend line in logarithmic scale.
    [​IMG]

    Looking forward, sounds like Reed Hastings is gone. Haven't heard much from the new CEO.
     
    #392 anotherdevilsadvocate, Mar 31, 2023
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2023
  13. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Massive 10% move to new highs for the year

    upload_2023-5-18_10-18-57.png
     
  14. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Netflix announced a new viewership metric, # of views.
    It's real simple, they take the old metric (# of hours) and divide by the length of the series.

    Which is better? Well that's the wrong question here...

    Imo the old metric was great, you want to get people spending a lot of hours on your service (reminder that Netflix is in competition with TikTok and video games, not just Disney+). Especially if you are going to be showing ads (more hours = more ads).

    Now the new metric, falls short in terms of figuring out how many ad views are being contributed by a show. More views != more ads.

    HOWEVER, what the new metric does, imo, is reveal that Netflix is going in a new direction. That is why it is not a question of which metric is better. I think we will see Netflix going away from every damn show getting 10 hours to tell a story, and every damn show stretching a 30-minute story into 10 hours. Now that Netflix has a new metric, I think they will start going with shorter series. No more, every mediocre show getting 10 1-hour shows for a season.

    I think we will start seeing new shows only getting 2 hours to tell a story, and show that they can bring in an audience.

    So I'm glad they've come up with this new metric, that doesn't give a damn about ads. Because too many mediocre shows were getting 10 hours to draw out boring stories.
     
  15. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    NFLX about to test an important trend line around $400, I think we see a bit lower on this leg.
     
  16. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    It is on the 20-week moving average, just like the major indexes (SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM).

    I think we see a bit lower too, just to get back to test the area (SPX~4328) when the VIX broke down in June.
     
  17. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    NFLX has had trouble in this $450 range before
     
  18. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Seeing articles saying NFLX is going to jack up rates again?
     
  19. Money123

    Money123 Active Member

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    Netflix up 15 percent today.
     
  20. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    I thought we would get some back filling that gap at this point, but its holding strong!
     

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