The investment seeks to reflect the performance, less expenses, of the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light, sweet crude oil. The fund will invest in futures contracts forlight, sweet crude oil, other types of crude oil, diesel-heating oil, gasoline, natural gas, and other petroleum-based fuels that are traded on the NYMEX, ICE Futures Exchange or other U.S. and foreign exchanges. Oil ETFs USO USL DNO DTO BNO DBO OIL OLO SZO OLEM OIH IOIL UHN UCO SCO UOY DOY FRAK FOL SNDS CRUD DIG DUG DDG UWTI DWTI Oil, oil ETF and oil futures discussion
crude seeing a nice pop today on the back of a hella massive draw down in oil inventories report today ... just how large was today's draw you ask? the largest weekly draw down in 30+ years!
After yesterday's first cut in output in over eight years, there seems to be wind in the back (in the price) of oil now. Yesterday's daily volume is the largest volume day since a low was fetched back in February 2016 (USO). The 4-week rolling average is also trending above the mean. A trade above the 50 DMA on the USO at $10.89, a point that has served as resistance all along this downtrend could finally change the course of the trade, even if temporary. I would stick with the derivative itself.
To many retail traders caught the oil pop. Expect shenanigans. Expect mkt maker BS. Should recover after the fakeout imo
Of course it did - I moved out of my SLB and OIH positions on the initial 3% pop, then watched it continue to climb. Ugh, leaving money on the table is annoying.
Crude rallies 81.8% of the time from Mid-February to Mid-May Crude oil has a tendency to bottom in mid-February and then rally through July with the bulk of the seasonal move ending in late April or early May. It is that early February low that can give traders an edge by buying ahead of a seasonally strong period. Going long crude oil’s July contract on or about February 14 and holding for approximately 60 days has been a profitable trade 27 times in 33 years, including the last three years straight, for an 81.8% win ratio with a cumulative profit of $108,660 (based upon trading a single crude oil futures contract excluding commissions and taxes). Crude oil’s seasonal tendency to move higher in this time period is partly due to continuing demand for heating oil and diesel fuel in the northern states and partly due to the shutdown of refinery operations in order to switch production facilities from producing heating oil to reformulated unleaded gasoline in anticipation of heavy demand for the upcoming summer driving season. This has refiners buying crude oil in order to ramp up production for gasoline. Last year, crude bottomed in mid-February and that bottom was the end of crude’s multi-year bear market that began in earnest in 2014. The result was the second best performance in this trade’s history going back to 1984. Only 2008 was better.
Crude Oil Inventories Surge Feb 8, 2017 Crude oil inventories saw a much larger than expected increase in the latest week, surging by 13.83 million barrels compared to the consensus forecast of a 2.5 million barrel build in stockpiles. This week’s increase represents the second largest weekly build in stockpiles going all the way back to 1983. The only week in the last 34 years that saw a larger weekly increase in inventories was last October when stockpiles increased by 14.42 million barrels. The key difference between last October and this week’s build in stockpiles is that back in October, the weekly build followed several drawdowns in the prior week, including the second-largest single week decline on record whereas this week’s build followed four prior weeks where inventories also increased. The chart below compares weekly crude oil inventories in 2017 to weekly levels in 2016, as well as the ten-year average and the average going back to 1983. Needless to say, inventory levels are way above average. In fact, this week’s level of just under 540 million barrels is the fifth highest weekly reading since at least 1983, and that puts total stockpiles 206 million (57%) above their historical average for this time of year. While crude oil inventories spiked this week, gasoline stockpiles saw an unexpected decline after five straight weeks of large builds. While traders were expecting a build in inventories of 1.5 million barrels, stockpiles actually declined by 839K. Like crude oil, as shown in the chart below, gasoline stockpiles are well above their historical average, but not to nearly the same degree. Additionally, at this point inventory trends seem to be following last year’s trends pretty closely.
Do I believe that oil will be back above 60 in the long run. Yes. Do I believe it is ANYTIME soon. No. With Record Long Specs...you realize how crowded that is haha. Oil may get killed on ANyTHING
Global Markets might affected due to slight decreasing of a crude Oil Crude Oil is slightly declining, though maintained above 64. Strong support is given at 60.93 (05/01/2018 low). Expected to keep increasing as demand remains strong. In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness is very likely. For the time being the pair lies in an upside trend since June 2017. Support lies at 42.20 (16/11/2016) while resistance point is located at 77.83 (20/11/2014). Crude oil is trading largely above its 200 DMA.
