Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of April 10th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: N/A. Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday 4:10 p.m. Fed Chair Janet Yellen delivers remarks at the University of Michigan Ford School of Public Policy Tuesday 6:00 a.m. NFIB survey 10:00 a.m. JOLTS 1:45 p.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari Wednesday Earnings: Fastenal, Shaw Communications, Pier 1 Imports 8:30 a.m. Import prices 2:00 p.m. Federal budget Thursday Earnings: Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, PNC Financial, Taiwan Semiconductor, First Republic Bank, Commerce Bancshares, Apogee, Infosys 8:30 a.m. Jobless claims 8:30 a.m. PPI Friday U.S. markets closed 8:30 a.m. Retail sales 8:30 a.m. CPI 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment 10:00 a.m. Business inventories
Boring Equity Action Masks "Devastating Eurodollar Unwinds" After Dudley Speech On the surface, and in equities, it was a painfully boring day. Stocks tumbled overnight after yesterday's Syrian airstrikes, then as it emerged that the conflict will likely be contained, futures ground higher and not even the worst jobs report in nearly a year managed to put a damper on today's rebound, as the narrative shifted to the drop in the unemployment rate, which dropped to 4.5% on the back of a 400K+ increase in employment according to the BLS' Household Survey. A sharp bounce in the dollar/USDJPY/treasury yield complex during Bill Dudley's speech around noon tried - and failed - to inspire a levitation in the S&P ... ... which ended up closing the day small in the red, despite so much earlier drama. And yet, while on the surface things appeared calm, below the surface, and especially in the Eurodollar complex there was a surge in activity, courtesy of the abovementioned Bill Dudley remarks. What happened? Recall the previously discussed Eurodollar 2018 (EDZ7/EDZ8) spread, which as we showed yesterday, had finally broken below a key support level... ... and was threatening to pull the technical support for the 10Y. In fact, with the 10Y dropping as low as 3.28% in early trading during the overnight, risk-aversion phase, the reflation trade appeared all but dead. That's when Bill Dudley took the podium. This is what he said: “Some people misconstrued what I said last week. I said a little pause. A pause is pretty short already, and I think a little pause is even shorter than that. Presumably at the time that you make the decision on the balance sheet you might want to forgo the decision on short-term rates just to make sure that the balance-sheet decision doesn’t turn out to be a bigger decision than you thought you were making. So, I would emphasize the words ’little pause.’” While those words were largely ignored by equity traders, momo chasers and various algos, they meant all the difference to Eurodollar traders, and anyone who had assumed that following Bill Dudley's comments last week, that the Fed would "pause" its rate hikes during the balance sheet runoff phase. We'll start with the result, and show just how big the move in the EDZ7/EDZ8 trade was: what the chart below shows is that as a result of Dudley's hawkish comments, the Eurodollar spread spiked to the highest level since the FOMC Minutes, where as a reminder the Fed's balance sheet unwind was a primary topic. So what happened? As RBC's Charlie McElligott expains, Dudley delivered the “clarification heard ‘round the (global macro trading) world,” as Dudley, in a mid-Friday afternoon interview, sought to alter the market’s initial interpretation of his massively impactful comments made last week, in turn disrupting thematic trades across the macro landscape. Those comments about the likelihood of a “little pause” in the Fed’s hiking trajectory as-and-when the FOMC begins the process of balance-sheet normalization sent shockwaves through the front-end of the US rates complex, forcing devastating stop-outs / unwinds in MEGA popular macro “reflation” trades like Eurodollar redpack shorts / EDZ7EDZ8 steepeners and the EDZ7-8-9 butterfly and a LOT pain at various and unconstrained funds over the course of the past week. As McElligott adds, the pain seemingly-culminated in this morning’s Syria strike / NFP headline clunker / Stockholm terror attack trifecta, which sent markets into their initial ‘risk off’ spiral, driving a major UST bid. Even as stocks recovered over the course of the morning (as per my note this morning), rates remained pinning near the high-profile psychological 2.30 level nearly all day. Seemingly, the mix of new longs (after the momentum in the ‘short rates’ trade reversed 3 weeks ago) and capitulation from legacy shorts was behind the strength. And then, Dudley “dropped the bomb” in his above-quoted “clarification.” Essentially, Dudley said that the Fed will NOT be substituting B/S policy tweaks for Fed hikes, which as noted had quickly become the new market narrative in short-order. He was clearly taken aback by the market reaction to his comments and viewing them as a statement on the Fed looking to reduce the scale of the overall 2018 hiking landscape. In turn, the price-action via the stop-outs and unwinds in the front-end trades over the past week were violently reversed this afternoon. Indeed, as the chart below shows, the vollume in the Eurodollar spread was the highest since election night! Some other aftereffects: nominal yields turned sharply higher. Breakevens turned off their worst levels too. UST curves flattened. The US Dollar screamed higher against everything from G10 to EM (everybody’s recent ‘fave’ high-yielding longs as it seemed the Dollar was ‘stuck’). In equities, the higher rates dynamic reinvigorate “cyclicals” and “value” factor, while “defensives” / “low volatility” / “anti-beta” factor market-neutral rolled over. And as I’ve been pointing-out, “growth” logically settled-back too, as it had become a hyper-crowded “hiding-place” over the course of the year as investors sought stocks which could perform without fiscal policy and interest rate exposure. Thus, FAANG and PANE (FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL and PCLN, AMZN, NFLX, EXPE story stocks in tech / consumer discretionary) lagged broad index on the day. Thus ‘momentum’ market-neutral reversing lower on the day too. McElligott's conclusion: As such, I’m getting sudden jolts of confidence from the last of the ‘reflation hold-out’ clients, now feeling really emboldened. And for the folks who didn’t cover their rates shorts or unwind their ED$ curve trades, there are now STATUES being built for Dudley in various fund offices around midtown. The one RISK that I see right now for ‘risk’ is this: that we are seeing the largest move TIGHTER in ‘real rates’ since the day post-March Fed hike. This idea of “tightening faster than we are growing” / “inflating faster than we’re growing” continues to be a concern to monitor. Bloomberg opined also, noting that Dudley comments benefited a fresh wave of hawkish Eurodollar Bets. Re-established downside options positioning across eurodollars unexpectedly benefited from Dudley comments Friday as focus shifts to clarity from Yellen on Monday. Signs are emerging that traders are looking to re-establish eurodollar put positions across 2018 maturities, potentially a sign that the rally in reds -- triggered by Dudley’s comments a week ago -- may have been overdone. Friday’s CME open interest changes rose in June 2018 eurodollar puts by 106k contracts; largest gains across 9762 (+25k), 9800 (+30k) and 9812 (+48k) strikes consistent with downside trades initiated Thursday. While open interest is starting to build again across June-18 eurodollar puts, there has been a sharp drop in Jun-17 open interest, reflecting position liquidation. Latest CFTC positioning data, covering week ending April 4, shows speculators adding $1.8M/DV01, to record eurodollar shorts. Earlier this week, a purge of eurodollar positions saw heavy losses, one of which included a trade liquidated Wednesday for a $15m hit, across Jun/Sept./Dec mid-curve eurodollar spreads from March 1. The purge came as a result of a collapse in eurodollar spreads, along with the Fed probability term structure which inverted as the rate-hike probability edged higher for June 2017 but then fell further out after Dudley’s comments last week. If all of this sounds overly technical for regular equity traders, don't worry it is, however the implications for the yield curve, and thus the reflation trade, or what's left of it, are substantial. It also means that as we pointed out yesterday, suddenly focus has intensified on Janet Yellen, who’s scheduled to speak at 4pm Monday at University of Michigan, taking questions from the audience and Twitter. What she says may roil if not the equity market, then certainly lead to a new set of big headaches for eurodollar traders.
Spoiler: Weekend Reading: Markets May Be Getting Expensive Authored by Lance Roberts via Real Investment Advice, Let me suggest a warning. Two week’s ago, I discussed the failure of Congress to get the Affordable Care Act (ACA) repealed, much less replaced. The problem, of course, is the failure to repeal the ACA leaves in question the ability to pass other agenda based items such as tax reform, border wall construction, repatriation or immigration reform. “Reaching an agreement on the FY budget resolution will not be easy; in the past, conservatives have demanded a balanced budget within ten years but this would require endorsing spending cuts (in non-binding form) that some centrist Republicans might oppose along with the BAT. Of course, while Wall Street believes ‘tax reform’ will be a much easier process than repealing health care, the reality is it could be just as tough as government entitlement programs, funding for Planned Parenthood, and other programs central to the Democrats, and some left-leaning Republicans, come under attack.” This past week, while Congress still hasn’t made any advance towards solving the current health care debate, Paul Ryan, House Majority Leader, confirmed my discussion on the rising risk of tax reform failure. To wit: “U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Paul Ryan said on Wednesday that tax reform will take longer to accomplish than repealing and replacing Obamacare would, saying Congress and the White House were initially closer to agreement on healthcare legislation than on tax policy. ‘The House has a (tax reform) plan but the Senate doesn’t quite have one yet. They’re working on one. The White House hasn’t nailed it down. So even the three entities aren’t on the same page yet on tax reform.’“ Just to remind you, the entire catalyst behind the post-election rally has been the “hope” that tax cuts will boost earnings enough to support current market valuations. However, interestingly, while the markets continue to hope for “fiscal policy” reforms, according to the release of the FOMC minutes there is little consideration being given to Trump’s agenda. From the minutes: “Participants continued to underscore the considerable uncertainty about the timing and nature of potential changes to fiscal policies as well as the size of the effects of such changes on economic activity. However, several participants now anticipated that meaningful fiscal stimulus would likely not begin until 2018. In view of the substantial uncertainty, about half of the participants did not incorporate explicit assumptions about fiscal policy in their projections.” Furthermore, the FOMC also raised concerns over the level of valuations in the markets. “Broad US equity price indexes increased over the intermeeting period, and some measures of valuations, such as price-to-earnings ratios, rose further above historical norms. A standard measure of the equity risk premium edged lower, declining into the lower quartile of its historical distribution of the previous three decades. Stock prices rose across most industries, and equity prices for financial firms outperformed broader indexes.“ Of course, valuations have been a topic of great debate in recent months particularly as they pushed into levels only witnessed prior to the 1929 and 2000 crashes. This leaves markets with the “hope” trade in peril as Congress continues to trip itself up in moving its legislative agenda forward while, at the same time, the Fed has accelerated the pace of monetary tightening and sending clear warnings to the markets. This has “bad” written all over it. Just some things I am thinking about this weekend as I catch up on my reading. * * * Trump/Fed/Economy Fed’s Balance Sheet Headed For The Crapper? by Danielle DiMartino-Booth via Money Strong 3-Precursors Of ’08 Crisis Repeating Now by Nomi Prins via Daily Reckoning The Economy Is Ruined For Many Americans by Wolf Richter via Wolf Street Fed Minutes Show Move To Shrink Balance Sheet by Edward Harrison via Credit Writedowns Cohn: Supportive Of Glass-Steagal Return by Bob Bryan via BI Bond Market Says “Show Me!” by Caroline Baum via MarketWatch Fed Is Worried About The Market by Frank Chaparro via BI Dimon Warns Something Is Wrong by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge Fed Making A Historical Mistake by Pedro Da Costa via BI Trump Ignores Monetary Policy by Brendan Brown via Mises Institute Fed Touched On Soft/Hard Data Debate by Elena Holodny via BI “Super Mario” Comes To The Rescue by Phillip Davis via Seeking Alpha Of Course Trump’s Tax Cuts Are In Trouble by Brett Arends via MarketWatch The Message Of Falling Real Yields by Ben Emons via Bloomberg GOP Is Blowing Tax Reform by Jake Novak via CNBC * * * Markets Is The Trump Trade Fading by James Picerno via Capital Spectator Expensive Stocks & End Of Trump Trade by Akin Oyedele via BI What Happens To The Market When Fed Warns Of Valuation by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge Death Of The Reflation Trade by Eric Parnell via Gerring Capital Stock Bond Ratio Back To 2007 Peak by Bryce Coward via Gavekal Markets Are Set Up To Fail by James Rickards via Daily Reckoning Trump Trade Is Over, Now What? by Myles Udland via Yahoo Finance Not 2000, Not 2007 – A Nasty Bit Of Both by James Mackintosh via WSJ Here’s What Determines What Stocks Do Next by Anthony Mirhaydari via Fiscal Times This Will Send Stocks Soaring by Michael Foster via Forbes Odds Still Favor New Market Highs by Chris Ciovacco via Ciovacco Capital Dividend Cuts Surge In March by Ironman via Political Calculations Smart Money Vs. Dumb Money. Who’s Right? by Simon Maierhofer via MarketWatch Market Has A Wall Of Worry To Climb by Michael Farr via CNBC * * * Research / Interesting Reads World’s Largest Investor Warns Of Overvaluation by Frank Chaparro via BI What Could Possibly Go Wrong by Axel Merk via Merk Investments 50% Of Americans Live Paycheck-To-Paycheck by Quentin Fottrell via MarketWatch Student Debt Lender To Borrowers: “You’re On Your Own” by Shahien Nasiripour via Bloomberg Robots: Summers vs. Mnuchin by Brad DeLong via Project Syndicate What’s Hyperconvergence? by Therese Poletti via MarketWatch Age: It Makes You Both Richer & Poorer by Timarr via Psy-Fi Blog Millennials Are Killing Marriage by Ben Steverman via Bloomberg 5-Alarming Facts About Student Loan Debt by Eric Pianin via Fiscal Times Phil Fisher’s Investment Checklist via Market Folly Peak Auto? by Vince Golle via Bloomberg Very Slow Growth Already Baked In by John Hussman via Hussman Funds Is Mexico The Unlikely Winner Of Trump? by Dana Lyons via Tumblr Fed’s Market Warnings Should Be Heeded by Jesse Felder via The Felder Report “There is no training that prepares for trading the last third of a move, whether it’s the end of a bull market, or the end of a bear market.” – Paul Tudor Jones
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD thus far in 2017- S&P sectors for the week-
Sweet Moves for the Market on Passover To all – Jews and gentiles alike – and anybody who likes a nice hot bowl of matzo ball soup, Zissen Pesach! That’s Yiddish for have a Sweet Passover. Over the years we have found that on the first full day of Passover (or the day after if it’s a weekend) have exhibited the sweetest market gains or the days surrounding this ancient celebration of the Jews’ Exodus from Egypt. Although Passover is not an observed official market holiday, it is a holiday that is observed. This year Passover begins on next Monday evening (4/10) and lasts until the evening on Tuesday, April 18. In the table below, DJIA’s performance the three trading days before and three trading days after Passover appears. When the first full day of Passover falls in a weekend the day after is used, otherwise DJIA’s performance on the first full day of Passover is used. Since 1971, the second and third days before have a bullish bias average gains on both days. The day before however, has an average loss of 0.02% even though there have been more advancing days than declining days. On or after the first full day of Passover, DJIA is generally positive with average gains on the day, two and three days after. Since 1997 the first day of Passover (or the first trading day after) has been up 16 of the 20 years. Since 2012, the three days before Passover have been notably weaker and could represent a new or developing trend. With Passover landing in either late March or April right around the time the market is at or near its highs, it would not be out of the question for those that observe the holiday to take profits and square positions prior to taking any time off. 30-year Treasury bond gains 75% of the time from late April to late August The 30-yr Treasury bond tends to bottom sometime during Q2, typically around the time the stock market reaches its highs, and then enjoys a solid run of strength into Q3 and beyond in some years. Note seasonal strength shaded in yellow in chart above. Bonds are also a relatively safe place to park capital during the “Worst Six Months” of the year, May through October. By going long, the September 30-year Treasury bond on or about April 27, and exiting the position on or about August 21, we discovered in the last 39 years a respectable 69.2% success rate. This trade’s track record over the last 28 years (shaded in grey in table below) is even better with 21 gains and a success rate of 75.0%. Are Small Caps Burning Out or Fading Away? Small cap stocks as measured by the Russell 2000 have seasonal “Best 8 Months” that begins in November and ends in June, much like the NASDAQ’s Best 8 Months, both are longer than DJIA’s and S&P 500’s Best Six Months. As you can see in the chart below from page 110 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2017, the “Small Cap Effect,” née January Effect, shows small cap stocks begin to outperform large cap stocks in earnest in mid-December. Though they hold the lead through the beginning of June when their bullish season ends, though the bulk of the move is complete by early March. This has once again been the case here in 2017. In the final chart below of the Russell 2000 compared to the S&P 500, it is clear that since late-February R2K has underperformed S&P. Today was no exception in the Fed-minutes-fueled, late-day selloff. While the overall market is still expected to make another move higher before any Trump Tumble transpires, small caps are likely to just keep pace with large caps at best. First 100 Days: March Weakness Sets Up 4% April Rally? At the start of March we updated the S&P 500 Performance during the First 100 Days of new administrations since 1953 in a post titled “February Weakness Avoided, March’s Thunder Stolen?” Looking at the same chart updated through today’s close, March was indeed a dud. Instead of a respectable rally, S&P 500 fell 0.04% in March. As of today’s close it has been 75 calendar days since President Trump took office and S&P 500 has gained 3.9% which is still above historical average. Historically, March was a flat month for new Republican administrations (solid red line in chart above), but that weakness ended on average in early April and the S&P 500 rallied nearly 4% by the end of the month (black arrow). A similar result this year would put S&P 500 off this chart by the end of the month.
Margin Debt: Worry or Overblown Anxiety? Posted by lplresearch New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) margin debt is back in the news, as levels reached yet another new all-time high in February 2017 of $528 billion. Margin debt is viewed as a potential contrarian indicator; when margin debt is high, this suggests investors are potentially over-leveraged and therefore too bullish. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “Many have speculated for several years now that high margin debt would lead to lower equity prices, but it hasn’t yet proved to be a useful market signal. In fact, margin debt first broke out to new highs in April 2013, and we’ve been hearing since then that this is a potential warning sign. For those scoring at home, the S&P 500 Index has been up nearly 70% since then.” The figure below shows margin debt as it relates to the S&P 500 Index. As you can see, the two are highly correlated and margin debt looks more coincident than leading. In other words, the two tend to move in the same direction at the same time, so margin debt levels have not been a good predictor of future movements in the index. Viewing margin debt by itself isn’t telling the full picture, however. Yes, the total value of margin debt may be higher now than at the 2000 and 2007 peaks, but the entire stock market’s value is also much higher. To get a more apples-to-apples take on this, we use margin debt as a percentage of the Wilshire 5000 (market capitalization of the total U.S. stock market). This ratio currently sits at 2.2% versus the 2007 peak of nearly 2.5%. In fact, margin debt as a percentage of the overall stock market value has trended in a range over the last 10 years and currently sits near the midpoint of that range, which is not particularly worrisome at this point, in our view. Last, we’ve seen many analyze margin debt as a percentage of the U.S. economy (gross domestic product [GDP]), but we don’t think this is relevant. The reality is that the U.S. has become much more productive and profitable for a given level of economic activity, and thus, using historical GDP data won’t tell an accurate story. What Happens After A Big First Quarter For Equities? Posted by lplresearch Although the S&P 500 Index just missed out on a five-month winning streak in March with a 0.04% loss, the good news is it still gained 5.5% in the first quarter. This came out to the best quarter overall since the fourth quarter of 2015, and it was the best first quarter gain since 2013. Given that the S&P 500 went on to gain another 17.8% in the final three quarters of 2013, the big question is: What does a big first quarter mean? Going back to 1950*, this was the 25th time the S&P 500 gained 5% or more during the first quarter. The good news for the bulls is the returns after a big first quarter have been broadly stronger across the board. Here are some stats to consider after the S&P 500 gains 5% or more in the first quarter: April has been up 2.0% on average versus the average April gain of 1.5%. The second quarter has gained 3.2% on average versus a 1.7% average return. The rest of the year, the S&P 500 has been up 9.6% on average versus the average return in the final three quarters of 6.4%. Last, incredibly, the full year has been higher 23 out of 24 times, with only 2011 lower. On a total return basis (including dividends), all 24 years have been higher. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “Although you’d think a big first quarter could lead to some near-term weakness, it sure doesn’t look like that. In fact, continued strength and a good deal of outperformance are perfectly normal after a big first quarter. Of course, all years are different and there are many other factors to consider; however, this does help to suggest that any pullbacks could be used as buying opportunities and that the bull market is still alive and well.”
The Closer 4/7/17 – End of Week Charts Apr 7, 2017 Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke clients, we recap weekly price action in major asset classes, update economic surprise index data for major economies, chart the weekly Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC, and provide our normal nightly update on ETF performance, volume and price movers, and the Bespoke Market Timing Model.
Banks to kick off earnings season on April 13th. Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the earnings chart posted in here as well once it's ready) ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 4.10.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Monday 4.10.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 4.11.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 4.11.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Wednesday 4.12.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 4.12.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 4.13.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 4.13.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Friday 4.14.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! MARKETS CLOSED. Friday 4.14.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! MARKETS CLOSED.
Just a quick heads up in here but the markets will be closed here in the states in observance of the Good Friday holiday on April 14th. Globex will be closed all day as well.
Stockaholics come join us in our weekly market poll and vote where you think the markets will end this upcoming week ahead!- Weekly SPX Poll - Sentiment (4/10-4/14) <-- click there to cast your weekly vote for this upcoming week! In addition we have our weekly stock picking challenge now up and running as well!- Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest for the Week of (4/10-4/10) <-- click there to post your weekly picks for this week! We also now have a daily stock picking & market direction guessing challenge running here!- Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (4/10) <-- click there to cast your daily vote & stock pick for Monday! It would be pretty awesome to see some of you regulars join us and participate on these. I hope you all have a fantastic weekend!
And as promised here are some of EW's most anticipated ERs due out for this upcoming holiday-shortened week ahead: ($JPM $C $WFC $TSM $DAL $FAST $PIR $PNC $OZRK $INFY $SEAC $FRC $SJR $APOG $CBSH $SLP $FHN $STRM $MTSC $LAYN) JP Morgan Chase & Co $86.18 JP Morgan Chase & Co (JPM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Thursday, April 13, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.51 per share on revenue of $24.57 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.59 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.85% with revenue decreasing by 3.31%. Short interest has decreased by 11.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.2% above its 200 day moving average of $76.16. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, April 3, 2017 there was some notable buying of 22,900 contracts of the $45.00 call expiring on Friday, January 19, 2018. The stock has averaged a 1.8% move on earnings in recent quarters. Citigroup, Inc. $59.43 Citigroup, Inc. (C) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Thursday, April 13, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.24 per share on revenue of $18.07 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.30 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.71% with revenue decreasing by 11.83%. Short interest has decreased by 26.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.4% above its 200 day moving average of $52.42. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, March 22, 2017 there was some notable buying of 17,242 contracts of the $59.50 call expiring on Friday, April 21, 2017. The stock has averaged a 2.2% move on earnings in recent quarters. Wells Fargo & Co. $54.84 Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Thursday, April 13, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.97 per share on revenue of $22.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.98 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 63% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 2.02% with revenue decreasing by 5.66%. Short interest has increased by 13.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.9% above its 200 day moving average of $51.78. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, March 27, 2017 there was some notable buying of 2,729 contracts of the $57.50 call expiring on Friday, May 19, 2017. The stock has averaged a 1.5% move on earnings in recent quarters. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited $32.87 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Thursday, April 13, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.53 per share on revenue of $7.42 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 39.47% with revenue increasing by 20.83%. Short interest has increased by 10.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.1% above its 200 day moving average of $29.85. On Tuesday, March 28, 2017 there was some notable buying of 1,024 contracts of the $33.00 put expiring on Friday, April 21, 2017. The stock has averaged a 3.0% move on earnings in recent quarters. Delta Air Lines, Inc. $45.17 Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, April 12, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.73 per share on revenue of $9.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.74 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 44.70% with revenue decreasing by 0.88%. Short interest has decreased by 32.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 11.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.5% above its 200 day moving average of $43.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 7, 2017 there was some notable buying of 11,158 contracts of the $43.00 put expiring on Friday, May 12, 2017. The stock has averaged a 2.1% move on earnings in recent quarters. Fastenal Co. $50.23 Fastenal Co. (FAST) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Wednesday, April 12, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.46 per share on revenue of $1.03 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.47 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 4.55% with revenue increasing by 4.39%. Short interest has decreased by 11.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.3% above its 200 day moving average of $45.52. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, March 28, 2017 there was some notable buying of 2,464 contracts of the $52.50 call expiring on Friday, April 21, 2017. The stock has averaged a 4.0% move on earnings in recent quarters. Pier 1 Imports, Inc. $7.14 Pier 1 Imports, Inc. (PIR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Wednesday, April 12, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.33 per share on revenue of $530.81 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.28 to $0.32 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 43.48% with revenue decreasing by 2.12%. Short interest has increased by 41.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 10.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.5% above its 200 day moving average of $5.92. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 7, 2017 there was some notable buying of 629 contracts of the $5.00 put expiring on Friday, January 19, 2018. The stock has averaged a 13.5% move on earnings in recent quarters. PNC Bank $119.17 PNC Bank (PNC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Thursday, April 13, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.83 per share on revenue of $3.79 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.87 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 56% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.93% with revenue decreasing by 4.63%. Short interest has decreased by 30.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.6% above its 200 day moving average of $103.08. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, April 4, 2017 there was some notable buying of 992 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, November 17, 2017. The stock has averaged a 1.0% move on earnings in recent quarters. Bank of the Ozarks, Inc. $49.79 Bank of the Ozarks, Inc. (OZRK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, April 11, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.71 per share on revenue of $225.45 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.73 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 63% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 24.56% Short interest has increased by 1.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 6.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.7% above its 200 day moving average of $44.99. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.5% move on earnings in recent quarters. Infosys Technologies Ltd. $15.27 Infosys Technologies Ltd. (INFY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 1:50 AM ET on Thursday, April 13, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.24 per share on revenue of $2.60 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.25 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 4.35% with revenue increasing by 6.30%. Short interest has increased by 37.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.3% below its 200 day moving average of $15.64. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, March 30, 2017 there was some notable buying of 624 contracts of the $17.50 call expiring on Friday, April 21, 2017. The stock has averaged a 7.2% move on earnings in recent quarters.
ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4.9.17 - Coiled up and Ready to Strike! Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
Good morning Stockaholics! Happy Monday. Hope you all had a nice relaxing weekend in here and are ready for the new trading week ahead. Here are your pre-market stock movers & news on this Monday morning- 4/10 Monday Market Movers & News: WFC, SNOW, TSLA, LEN, GOOGL, SKX, AMZN, MS, DAL, NFLX, MKC, EBAY click there to view! I hope everyone has a nice trading day week in here, albeit a short trading week with Friday closed for Good Friday!
