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Stock Market Today: April 16th - 20th, 2018

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Apr 13, 2018.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of April 16th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]


    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]


    Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]


    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]


    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Earnings: Bank of America, Netflix, Charles Schwab, M&T Bank, Celanese, Pinnacle Financial

    8:30 a.m. Empire state manufacturing

    8:30 a.m. Retail sales

    10:00 a.m. Business inventories

    10:00 a.m NAHB survey

    10:00 a.m. New York Fed President William Dudley speaks to CNBC

    1:15 p.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

    4:00 p.m. TIC data

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: Goldman Sachs, IBM, Johnson and Johnson, UnitedHealth, United Continental, CSX, Comerica, Northern Trust, Interactive Brokers, Prologis, Omnicom

    8:30 a.m. Housing starts

    8:30 a.m. Business leaders survey

    9:15 a.m. Industrial production

    9:15 a.m. San Francisco Fed President John Williams in Madrid at NABE Bank of Spain symposium

    10:00 a.m. Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles on regulatory reform at House Finance Committee

    11:00 a.m. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker

    1:40 p.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans at Chicago Rotary Club

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Abbott Labs, American Express, Morgan Stanley, US Bancorp, Textron, Alcoa, Steel Dynamics, BancorpSouth, Umpqua Holdings, United Rentals, Universal Forest Products, Pier 1 Imports

    2:00 p.m. Beige book

    3:00 p.m. New York Fed's Dudley on economy and policy

    4:15 p.m. Fed's Quarles at IMF

    • Thursday

    Earnings: Novartis, Blackstone, Bank of NY Mellon, Danaher, Luxottica Group, Taiwan Semiconductor, KeyCorp, ETrade, Genuine Parts, Sonoco Products, BB&T, Philip Morris, Nucor, Pentair, Snap-On, Quest Diagnostics, Sky

    8:00 a.m. Fed Governor Lael Brainard on regulatory reform

    8:30 a.m. Jobless claims

    8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing

    9:30 a.m. Fed's Quarles testifies before Senate Banking Committee for semiannual testimony of Fed supervision and regulation of financial system

    • Friday

    Earnings: Procter and Gamble, Honeywell, General Electric, Baker Hughes, Synchrony Financial, Manpower Group, Steve Madden, SunTrust, Schlumberger, Kansas City Southern, State Street, Stanley Black and Decker, Cleveland-Cliffs, Roper Industries
     
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Zuck, Xi, Mueller, & Missiles Spark Stock Slump, Bitcoin Jump, Bank & Boeing Dump
    Thank fuck that's over...



    Take your pick of the headline chaos today - from China (delaying deals), Comey (book bullshit), Rosenstein (recusal and rumors of being fired), Mueller (no fucking idea), Syria (US moves another ship into Med, Syria threatens response), and Russia (proof UK was responsible for chemical attack); to Fed speakers (worried about the yield curve's flattening) to slumping sentiment (UMIch tumbled most in 18 months) - and stocks slid after a strong week...

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]



    Futures markets show the dramatic swings more completely...NOTE The Dow and S&P closed back below the ledge from last week when Trump demanded $100bn in tariffs...

    [​IMG]



    Stock tumbled late in the day today, but were duly rescued by the standard VIS crush into the close.. because why wouldn't you dump protection ahead of a weekend loaded with the possibility of a Trump Tomahawk Tirade...

    [​IMG]



    The Big Banks were ugly today after everyone proclaimed their earnings were awesome...

    [​IMG]



    And The Small Banks continues to underperform along with the yield curve...

    [​IMG]



    Boeing dumped after headlines on Russian retaliation...

    [​IMG]



    On the bright side, pot stocks jumped...

    [​IMG]



    Bonds and Stocks decoupled on the week...

    [​IMG]



    Treasury yields were higher on the week but the long-end dramatically outperformed...

    [​IMG]



    Which sent 2s30s curve to a new 11 year flat...its down 16bps since The Fed hiked rates...

    [​IMG]



    And 2s10s is now holding well below 50bps...

    [​IMG]





    The Dollar Index fell after two weeks of gains to its lowest weekly close in two months...

    [​IMG]



    Of course it was a big week for the Ruble...

    [​IMG]



    The Turkish Lira also crashed early in the week only to be rescued...

    [​IMG]



    Cryptos had their best week in 4 months as it appears the tax overhang is lifting...Ripple was up 50% on the week!! (best since Dec 2017)

    [​IMG]



    Most commodities managed to eke out gains on the week but WTI Crude soared to its highest since Dec 2014...

    [​IMG]



    Finally, we note that it appears all the hype and hope in the survey data is starting to collapse back to reality...

    [​IMG]
     
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  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2018-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
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  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    40 Largest Companies Reporting Earnings Next Week
    Apr 13, 2018

    Below is a snapshot of the 40 largest companies set to report earnings next week. For each stock, we show its current consensus EPS and revenue estimate, and we also show each stock’s historical EPS and revenue beat rate.

    On Monday morning, Bank of America (BAC), Charles Schwab (SCHW), and M&T Bank (MTB) kick things off, while Netflix (NFLX) will be on everyone’s radar after the close. On Tuesday morning, we hear from big Dow 30 stocks like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), UnitedHealth (UNH), and Goldman Sachs (GS). IBM is the biggest stock reporting on Tuesday after the close.

    Morgan Stanley (MS) is one of the last big brokers to report on Wednesday morning, and then American Express (AXP) reports its Q1 numbers on Wednesday after the close. Thursday we’ll hear from Philip Morris Intl (PM), Taiwan Semi (TSM), Danaher (DHR), and PPG Industries (PPG), while on Friday morning we get numbers from a number of blue chips like Procter & Gamble (PG), General Electric (GE), Honeywell (HON), and Schlumberger (SLB).

    Of the stocks listed below, JNJ, UNH, GS, ISRG, and LRCX have historically beaten EPS estimates the most often.

    [​IMG]

    Lots of Noise, Little Headway
    Apr 12, 2018

    Despite massive volatility on a day to day basis, it may sound hard to believe, but the S&P 500 is currently trading right where it was nearly two months ago on February 13th. You read that right, in what has been the most volatile market environment in at least a couple of years, the S&P 500 has nothing to show for it – up or down! In terms of individual sectors, we’ve seen some rotation. While Technology continues to be a market leader, it has been joined by former laggards like the Energy (+5.1%) and Utilities (0.5%) sectors to the upside. On the downside, Telecom Services, Consumer Staples, and Materials are all down over 2%, while Industrials, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary are down a percent.

    [​IMG]

    As far as individual stocks are concerned, 250 stocks are up and 250 stocks are down, so it couldn’t be more balanced. While a total of 43 stocks in the S&P 500 are up over 10% over the last 2 months, in the interest of space, the table below lists the twenty top performers. As you might expect given the sector’s leadership, a number of stocks from the Energy sector make up the list with Hess (HES), Noble Energy (NBL), Baker Hughes/GE (BHGE), and National Oilwell (NOV) all up over 20%. The top-performing stocks, however, have been Nektar (NKTR), XL Group (XL), and Chipotle (CMG), with each gaining close to or more than 30%. FAANG stocks had a good start to the year, but the only one that has been able to keep the momentum going is Netflix (NFLX), which is up nearly 20%.

    [​IMG]

    While 43 stocks in the S&P 500 are up over 10% since 2/13, 37 stocks are down 10%+, and in the table below, we list the worst 20. As shown, just two of the worst performing stocks are down over 20% since February 13th, which is actually pretty surprising to us given the volatility. Those two stocks are L Brands (LB) and Incyte (INCY). Looking through the list of losers, though, there are a number of blue-chip stocks such as General Mills (GIS), QUALCOMM (QCOM), Comcast (CMCSA), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Biogen (BIIB), and Walmart (WMT).

    [​IMG]
    The Curse Of The Presidential Cycle
    Posted by lplresearch

    As we noted back in January, midterm election years tend to be relatively volatile periods—with stocks historically seeing the largest intra-year pullbacks.

    [​IMG]

    But why is that? Of course, there are many likely reasons, but one potential reason is that in the past the political party that has won the presidency has lost seats in the House and Senate during the midterm election, generating some uncertainty during these years.

    Looking at the full four-year presidential cycle also shows that the second and third quarters of the president’s second year in office (so right now) can indeed have bulls frustrated. “Going all the way back to the Dow’s inception in 1896 displays that this quarter and next quarter are quite weak historically. But the good news is we’ve seen big rallies after this weakness. However, this is something to be aware of as we move forward in this midterm year,” said Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist.

    [​IMG]

    Although we expected more volatility this year, we are seeing some signs of better times ahead for equites. Be sure to be on the lookout for our latest Weekly Market Commentarydue out Monday, where we look at some positive technical developments on equities.

    April’s Option Expiration Week Historically Bullish
    [​IMG]
    April option expiration is generally bullish across the board with solid gains on the last day of the week, the entire week and the week after. Since 1982, DJIA and S&P 500 have both advanced 23 times in 36 years on expiration day with an average gain of just under 0.2%. Expiration week as a whole has a slightly more bullish track record over the past 36 years to expiration day. Average weekly gains are 1% or better for S&P 500, DJIA and NASDAQ. The bullish bias of April expiration also persists during the week after. DJIA has posted a full-week gain in twelve of the last fourteen weeks following expiration.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    It’s Beginning to Look A Lot Like 1994
    [​IMG]
    It’s beginning to look a lot like Ninety-Four
    Everywhere you go
    Take a look at the Dow and Tech
    Trading sideways once again
    With volatility and earnings all aglow
    It’s beginning to look a lot like Ninety-Four
    Stocks in every home
    But the prettiest sight to see, is the Rates that will be
    Back to normal soon
    An inflation rate the works and an economy that shoots
    Is the wish of Powell and Trump …


    Hat tip: Johnny Mathis & Meredith Wilson

    Like 2018, 1994 was a midterm election year, the second year of a first term president after a solid market performance in the first year of the term – after a party switch in the White House. We also had a Fed in a relatively new tightening phase as we have now. The current tightening cycle has been going on longer, but in 1994 it started from a higher point and was increased at a much more accelerated pace.

    But nevertheless, in the chart above comparing year-to-date 2018 action in the dotted lines to the 1994 market pattern in the solid lines with the Dow in black, S&P 500 in red and NASDAQ in blue you can see a striking similarity.

    Key Inflection Point in Midterm Seasonal Pattern Approaching
    [​IMG]
    Compared to the typical April pattern over the last 21 years, midterm year Aprils exhibit a noticeably different pattern. In all years, April tends to get off to a sluggish start, but finishes well. In midterm Aprils (visible in the charts below), the month is strong until just after mid-month at which point it rolls over and closes weakly.

    Mid-April is also a clear inflection point in the full-year seasonal patterns. In midterm years and the second years of a newly elected president, DJIA and S&P 500 make a clear move lower after mid-April. However, in past years ending in “8” DJIA and S&P 500 continued higher through yearend. For the market to take a path similar to past years ending in “8”, trade wars fears would need to abate, earnings season will need to be a homerun and the Fed will need to take a slightly more dovish tone on future rate hikes.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Down February/Down March: Historically a Rather Bearish Outcome
    [​IMG]
    Over the past 69 years the combination of a down February and a down March has occurred 11 times for S&P 500 and 10 times for DJIA prior to this year’s occurrence. Historically, the market’s performance after back-to-back losses in February and March was well below average and rather bearish in nature. Recent occurrences in 2008 and 2001 were both bear market years. After a bounce in April, Q2 was down more than 70% of the time. The April through yearend period (Apr-Dec) was mixed and full-year performance was negative on average.
    [​IMG]
     
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  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for April 13th 2018
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon
    (VIDEO NOT YET UP!)

    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4.15.18 - Look Above and Fail
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
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  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 4.13.18-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
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  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the weekly earnings calendar posted in here as well once it's out)

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 4.16.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 4.16.18 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 4.17.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 4.17.18 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 4.18.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 4.18.18 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 4.19.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 4.19.18 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 4.20.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 4.20.18 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
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  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market challenge threads for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    And finally, we have our mystery chart challenge now up as well!
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
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  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar:

    [​IMG]
     
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  10. Ken34

    Ken34 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

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    cramer sure has been talking down micron lately, surprised the stock sold off after hours once he started talking about it on mad money
     
  11. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

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  12. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

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    #12 stock1234, Apr 13, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2018
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  13. Ken34

    Ken34 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

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    i wouldnt be surprised if there is more reaction to earnings than the news honestly. i think oil is going to have a field day though.
     
  14. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

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    True, announcing on Friday night probably minimize the impact to the market and the strike probably is somewhat priced in, we will see ;)
     
  15. Ken34

    Ken34 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

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    i was curious and had a CY moment, i looked back at how the market reacted back in 2003 before the iraq war

    "Markets jump on signs war is inevitable; Bush sets 48-hour deadline; terror alert raised."

    NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Stocks soared Monday on bets that a war with Iraq is imminent and will end quickly, giving blue chips their best gains of the year and pushing the Nasdaq further into positive territory for 2003.

    http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/17/markets/markets_newyork/

    i cant pull up a chart, but looking at a yearly chart of 2003, it seems there was a sell off sometime in march and the market rallied from there. @bigbear0083 would do it better justice than i in pulling up a chart of march 2003.
     
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  16. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    ^^ ask and ye shall receive :p

    2003 is an interesting chart because it's a bit similar (albeit not perfect) to the 2016 daily chart. there was an early selloff to start the first few months of that year followed by a bounce that did not take out the lows.

    that year ended up very strong +26.38% but you have to take into account that we were just coming out of a bear market the previous year.

    the correction in early 2003 was -15.63% from intraday high to low.

    2016's early year correction was -12.23% and still ended the year strong almost +10% (+9.56% to be exact)

    interestingly our current 2018 early year correction thus far has gotten to -11.84% from the ATH to the correction low.

    so although in both instances we saw a correction of greater than -10% both years still ended strong.

    it will be interesting to see if this same scenario were to play out here in 2018 as well. i think it might as i had drew up a scenario chart on last week's thread here - https://www.stockaholics.net/threads/stock-market-today-april-9th-13th-2018.5561/page-6#post-76207

    let's see what happens! thx for bringing up that 2003 @Ken34 very interesting indeed.

    [​IMG]
     
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  17. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    And as promised here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($NFLX $BAC $GE $LRCX $GS $UNH $IBM $JNJ $CLF $MTB $ABT $MS $ISRG $PGR $CMA $PG $AA $BX $AXP $ASML $MLNX $HON $UAL$FRED $NUE $SLB $PIR $DGX $URI $GSM $CE $CSX $GWW $WM $SEAC $NTRS $PNFP $KEY $WTC $USB $OMC $SKX $TXT $ETFC)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
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  18. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  19. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    good call on the "nonevent" to the syrian strike over the weekend @Ken34

    here is a list of geopolitical events that have happened over the years and the market reaction to those events.

    they have largely been nonevents for the most part.

    [​IMG]
     
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  20. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    ACIA down 20+%, LITE down 7+%.
    "the U.S. banned American companies from selling components to China-based ZTE Corp. ZTE pleaded guilty to conspiring to violate U.S. sanctions by shipping goods to Iran"
    Might scare some people that the US is banning companies from selling to China, but more precisely here the Chinese company pleaded guilty to shipping to Iran.
     
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