Stock Market Today: April 2nd - 6th, 2018

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by Stockaholic, Mar 29, 2018.

  1. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of April 2nd!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]


    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]


    Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]


    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]


    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
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    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Earnings: Cal-Maine Foods, Switch

    9:45 a.m. Manufacturing

    10:00 a.m. ISM manufacturing

    10:00 a.m. Construction spending

    6:00 p.m. Fed President Neel Kashkari

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: Cloudera, Dave and Buster's

    Monthly vehicle sales

    9:30 a.m. Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Lennar, Acuity Brands

    8:15 a.m. ADP Payrolls

    9:45 a.m. Services PMI

    9:45 a.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard

    10:00 a.m. ISM nonmanufacturing

    10:00 a.m. Factory orders

    • Thursday

    Earnings: RPM International, Schnitzer Steel, PriceSmart

    8:30 a.m. Jobless claims

    8:30 a.m. International trade

    • Friday

    8:30 a.m. Nonfarm payrolls

    3:00 p.m. Consumer credit

    4:00 p.m. San Francisco Fed President John Williams
     
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  2. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Gold Gains In Q1 As Stocks, Bonds, Cryptos, Dollar Tumble Amid Trade Tantrums, Techlash
    Well that was an hour, day, week, month, quarter...


    Despite recent weakness, gold wins Q1...

    [​IMG]



    In equity land, The MSCI All-World Index of global stocks snapped a seven-quarter winning streak - its longest such stretch of gains since 1997 - while global bonds are set for their first decline in currency neutral terms since 2016.

    [​IMG]

    This is the first quarterly drop for the S&P since Q3 2015 (China devaluation, flash crash) and this is the first back-to-back monthly losses for S&P since Oct 2016, and the biggest 2-month drop since Sept 2015.

    [​IMG]

    The S&P broke its 9-quarter winning streak (biggest 2-month drop since Q1 2016), Dow also broke its 9-wtr win streak, with the biggest 2-month drop since Q3 2015 but Nasdaq managed to close green for a 7-quarter winning streak (but March was the worst month since Q1 2016).

    [​IMG]

    Small Caps scrambled back into the green briefly for the quarter today (that would be the 9th quarterly gain in a row) - BUT THEN FAILED!


    Despite the total bloodbath in FANG-style stocks in the last few weeks (down 8.2% in March, the biggest drop since Jan 2016), NYSE FANG+ managed to gain 8% in Q1 - its 7th quarterly advance in a row.

    [​IMG]



    Financials had an ugly Q1 in Europe (2nd quarterly drop in a row, March worst month since Brexit in June 2016) and US (first quarterly drop since Q1 2016 and March was the worst month for US financials since Jan 2016)

    [​IMG]



    BTFD disappeared in Q1 as the SMART money is fleeing the market...

    [​IMG]



    VIX had its biggest quarterly spike since September 2011 (and is up two quarters in a row for the first time since 2015). While February was the biggest monthly spike since Aug 2015, March also rose (up 5 of the last six months) - interesting that VIX started to snap on a monthly basis when The Fed started normalizing its balance sheet...

    [​IMG]



    On a normalized basis, the S&P 'VIX' rose the most in Q1 (even as Nasdaq 'VIX' spiked most this week)...

    [​IMG]



    European HY credit spreads widened for the second quarter in a row (Q1 was worst since Q3 2015) and European IG credit spreads exploded wider for the first time since Q3 2015 with March the biggest IG spread spike since the crisis). HY spreads were stable in the US but IG crashed wider in Feb and March (March worst month for US IG since Jan 2016)

    [​IMG]



    And perhaps most ominously, LIBOR-OIS spreads exploded for the second straight quarter, by the most since Q3 2011 (to its widest since Q1 2009).

    [​IMG]



    The broad US bond market's total return fell in Q1 - the first drop since Q4 2016 - but March was the best month for bonds since August 2017... but all yields were higher across the term structure in Q1...

    [​IMG]



    March saw the biggest yield curve flattening since September 2011 (the 7th flatter month in the last 8) and closed flatter for the 15th quarter of the last 17... 2s30s plunge to a 60 handle today!! - the lowest since Oct 2007

    [​IMG]



    After winning in every quarter last year, Risk Parity funds tumbled in Q1 and while March was unchanged, February was the worst month for RP funds since Nov 2016...

    [​IMG]



    The Dollar Index fell for the 5th straight quarter (the longest streak since March 2008) to its weakest level since Dec 2014. The Loonie was the worst performing major against the dollar and JPY the best performer

    [​IMG]

    This was the worst quarter for cryptocurrencies ever with Bitcoin down almost 50% and breaking below its 200DMA...

    [​IMG]



    Crude surged almost 10% on the quarter - the 3rd quarter of gains in a row (and WTI is up for the 6th month of the last 7) and gold gained over 2% but, despite the dollar weakness, silver and copper ended Q1 notably lower..

    [​IMG]

    * * *

    "I Love The Smell of Window-Dressing In The Morning"




    Having got the month and quarter out of the way, this week was total chaos - a combination of horrific headlines, weak liquidity, and concentrated positions into quarter-end spark massive realized vol in many asset classes, but nowhere more than in stocks, tech stocks...

    [​IMG]



    A crazy day...

    [​IMG]



    Futures show the real chaos since Jay Powell hiked rates... (NOTE - did traders already forget what happened on Tuesday's panic-bid meltup?)

    [​IMG]



    And investors have AMZN to thank for today's mega-ramp...

    [​IMG]



    AMZN was desperately trying to get back to its 100DMA...

    [​IMG]



    FANG Stocks closed lower on the week even with today's meltup...

    [​IMG]



    Tesla was the worst-performing stock on the Nasdaq but many of the so-called FANGMAN stocks were ugly...TSLA, AMZN, NFLX, TSLA, and NVDA ended the week red (noted FB - upper orange - tumbled into the close on some new headlines)

    [​IMG]



    Bank stocks bounced today but faded into the close...

    [​IMG]



    The Dow bounced back above its Fib 38.2% retrace line today...

    [​IMG]



    The S&P 500 held above its 200DMA once again but ios making lower highs...

    [​IMG]



    Seriously though, if today's spike in stocks wasn't OPEX/Window-Dressing then we don't know what is...

    [​IMG]



    Treasury yields tumbled on the day with only the 2Y yield higher on the week...

    [​IMG]



    The yield curve plunged on the week... with 2s30s hitting a 69 handle for the first time since Oct 2007

    [​IMG]



    The Dollar Index was up on the week (lower today)...

    [​IMG]





    Copper surged in the last 36 hours to end the week green but PMs and crude are lower...

    [​IMG]



    Cryptos Carnaged this week... again...

    [​IMG]



    We conclude with Mark Cudmore's comments from before the open today:

    The S&P 500 has yet to really break down -- the longer it holds above the 200-day moving average, the bigger the crash will likely be when it happens.

    WTI has again failed to hold above $65, forming a very ominous double top that must make the near- record net longs for WTI nervous. With U.S. output surging, and sliding commodities signaling a slowdown in demand for raw materials, the stars are aligning for a big, disinflationary step down by crude.

    Treasury 10-year yields have had to be dragged down kicking-and-screaming because the Fed is sticking to its dots, but the latest capitulation of the term premium forewarns of a larger collapse in rates.

    When they do, that will cast doubt on the Fed’s guidance and spread a fresh wave of disruption across assets that will start out in bonds, currently less volatile than FX and stocks relative to historical norms

    So, rest up and enjoy those chocolates.

    But, we'll give the last word to Rudy...

    [​IMG]
    Rudolf E. Havenstein@RudyHavenstein

    7h
    Is there ever a general stock decline that isn't "healthy"? @cnbc pic.twitter.com/rBGe6juWdE

    [​IMG]
    Rudolf E. Havenstein@RudyHavenstein


    "Sobering" http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=13429897 … pic.twitter.com/lAsNjTjGeZ

    12:24 PM - Mar 29, 2018
    [​IMG]

    Bonus Chart: The Analogs remain...

    [​IMG]
     
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  3. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2018-
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
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  4. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    First Trading Day of Q2 DJIA and S&P 500 Advance 75.0% of the Time
    [​IMG]
    According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2018, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s second best first trading day of months based upon total points gained. Only May’s first trading day is stronger. Looking back at the last 24 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA and S&P 500 have both advanced 75.0% of the time (up 18 of last 24) with average gains right around 0.5%. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have slightly weaker track records and smaller average gains, but are both still up more frequently then down with modest average gains.
    [​IMG]
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    April Seasonality for Commodities ETF
    Mar 29, 2018

    Our amazing new Stock Seasonality Tool lets users track seasonality trends for any stock, ETF, index, or asset class over any time period throughout the year. With the month of April starting up next week, we wanted to show how the various commodities ETFs have historically performed during the month.

    The chart below is a direct snapshot from a search we ran in our Stock Seasonality Tool. It shows the five best and worst performing commodities ETF during the month of April on a media basis over the last 12 years. Natural gas has been in a downtrend for years now, but interestingly, UNG has been the best performing commodity ETF in April with a median gain of 3.57%. Behind UNG is DBC, DJP, MOO, and DBE. DBC and DJP are two broad commodity ETFs, while MOO tracks agribusiness.

    On the downside, there are three commodity ETFs that have posted median declines in April over the last 12 years — Silver (SLV), Coffee (JO), and precious metals (DBP). Silver (SLV) has been the worst performing commodity ETF in April over the last 12 years with a median decline of 3.05%.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Gauging the Fed’s Progress on Inflation
    Posted by lplresearch

    Inflation, and its impact on future Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, has been a persistent theme in markets in recent months. The latest chapter of the story unfolded this morning, with the release of personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation data for February. Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch explains, “Today’s core PCE reading, at 1.6%, was in line with expectations but remains below the Fed’s 2% target. Looking beyond the headlines, this reading isn’t likely to have an impact on Fed policy, and we continue to expect a total of three rate hikes in 2018.”

    There are three widely used measures of inflation, and each one contains a basket of goods that measures price pressures differently.
    1. The PCE Price Index hinges on what businesses sell.
    2. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is developed by a survey of what consumers buy.
    3. The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures inflation in selling prices received by goods and services providers.
    Year-over-year growth in the headline figures for core CPI and PCE are lower than they were a year ago; however, core readings (which exclude food and energy prices) for all three measures have moved higher over the past six months, which suggests the Fed has made at least some recent progress in its efforts to spur a pickup in inflation. Continued job growth in an already tight labor market, combined with the recent addition of fiscal stimulus in the form of tax cuts, may help this trend continue in the near term. However, inflation is so far showing few signs that it will increase enough to warrant a significantly more aggressive Fed in the near term.

    [​IMG]

    Time for April Showers?
    Posted by lplresearch

    As the saying goes, “April showers bring May flowers.” But that begs the question: Will it rain on the bulls this April?

    First things first, the S&P 500 Index found support right on its upward trending 200-day moving average. That’s a step in the right direction for markets looking to form some type of bottom.

    [​IMG]

    But bottoms don’t form overnight, and they can be a frustrating process. In fact, in August 2015 (the last time we saw volatility similar to the recent action), the ultimate low took nearly six months to form.

    However, there may be some good news. April is a month that rarely sees a large dip. In fact, according to Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “April has only showered gains lately, as the S&P 500 has posted positive returns in 9 of the past 10 years”.

    [​IMG]

    As we described in this Weekly Market Commentary, we believe that positive U.S. economic growth and strong earnings should outweigh trade policy and midterm election concerns. In the end, we still expect double-digit S&P 500 returns in 2018 with cyclicals outperforming defensive, value outperforming growth, and small caps outperforming large caps.

    Stocks Bounced, As Expected
    Posted by lplresearch

    This is the fourth time since Brexit that stocks bounced right off of this long-term trendline. Is it possible that this instance will be a buying opportunity for suitable investors like the other three periods were? One thing is for sure: the trade war concerns could prove to be an opportunity when all is said and done.

    [​IMG]

    What would it mean if the 200-day MA was finally breached? “This is now the fourth-longest streak above the 200-day moving average since World War II,” said Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist. “The reality is that historically once long streaks finally end, the bullish momentum may be far from over, and more gains could be in store for stocks.”

    As the figure below shows, a year after the previous four-longest streaks ended, stocks were in the green. In other words, when this bullish streak ends (and it will eventually), the bull could still have some tricks up his sleeve.

    [​IMG]
     
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  5. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Stock Market Analysis Video for March 29th 2018
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon
    (VIDEO NOT YET UP!)

    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4.1.18
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
    (VIDEO NOT YET UP!)
     
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  6. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 3.29.18-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
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  7. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the weekly earnings calendar posted in here as well once it's out)

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 4.2.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 4.2.18 After Market Close:
    NONE.

    Tuesday 4.3.18 Before Market Open:
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    Tuesday 4.3.18 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 4.4.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 4.4.18 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 4.5.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 4.5.18 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 4.6.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 4.6.18 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
  8. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market challenge threads for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    We also have our upcoming monthly market poll and stock picking contest for the month of April!-
    ========================================================================================================

    ...and also our upcoming quarterly poll and stock pick contest for Q2!-

    Stockaholics Q2 2018 Quarterly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll <-- click there to cast your quarterly market vote and stock picks for Q2!

    ========================================================================================================

    And finally, we have our mystery chart challenge now up as well!
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
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  9. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar:

    [​IMG]
     
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  10. zzokk

    zzokk New Member

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    My picks for this week

     
  11. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    And as promised here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($PLAY $SORL $KMX $CLDR $SWCH $CALM $LEN $WLB $HCAP $AYI $CONN $SSKN $MON $OLLI $MNGA $TTNP $YOGA $AFH $RPM$LOW$CGIX $IZEA $ENT $ISCA $SCHN $AEHR $RSLS $SRAX $RECN $WDFC $LNDC $BPTH $FTD $XRF $RRTS $CDTI $GBX $AMRH $ASM)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
  12. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    good morning to all. hope everyone had a nice easter weekend. welcome to a new trading week, month, and quarter!

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    o_O lots of volume but no movement....so far

    spy.png
     
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  14. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    there's some movement.....now waiting on the bounce...
     
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  15. FutureNvrEndz

    FutureNvrEndz Member

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    SPX support at 200ma didn't come through this time!
     
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  16. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    lots of time left in the day... Is there any news out there?
     
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  17. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    You're not kidding, who knows where the bottom is now.

    upload_2018-4-2_11-3-4.png
     
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  18. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    crawling back to 200MA support.
     
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  19. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    all my indicators indicating "watch out...big move coming"
    might be hitting feburary lows here

     
    #19 OldFart, Apr 2, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2018
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  20. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    What a bloody selloff :eek: Have we gone from BTFD to STFR market now :p
     
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