Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of August 13th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday Earnings: Sysco, Axa Equitable Tuesday Earnings: Home Depot, Tapestry, Advance Auto Parts, Agilent, Cree, Canadian Solar, Myriad Genetics 6:00 a.m. NFIB survey 8:30 a.m. Import prices Wednesday Earnings: Macy's, Pershing Square Holdings, Cisco Systems, NetApp, Tencent 8:30 a.m. Retail sales 8:30 a.m. Productivity and costs 8:30 a.m. Empire state manufacturing survey 9:15 a.m. Industrial production 10:00 a.m. Business inventories 10:00 a.m. NAHB survey 4:00 p.m. TIC data Thursday Earnings: Walmart, Nvidia, JC Penney, Nordstrom, Applied Materials, Madison Square Garden 8:30 a.m. Initial claims 8:30 a.m. Housing starts 8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed 8:30 a.m. Business leaders survey Friday Earnings: Deere 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment 10:00 a.m. QSS
Istanbulldozed! Overheard in Ankara tonight... Let's start with FX markets, because that's where the bloodbathery really escalated... On the day, the Lira was obliterated... And on the week, along with the Lira, Argentina's Peso, Russian Ruble, the Rand and Real all collapsed... And Emerging Market FX crashed... (the worst week for EM FX since Sept 2011) The offshore Yuan fell for the 9th week in a row... But that drop was nothing... The Argentine Peso crashed to a new record low... The Turkish Lira went full meltdown to a new record low (note the late day bounce on headlines that some progress had been made)... The Ruble plunged to 27 month lows... And The Rand was routed... And Brazil's Real was battered... Crytpocurrencies were clubbed like a baby seal...thanks to a big midweek dump... Finally, with all the destruction, the dollar surged on the week... Testing 2018 highs... Treasury yields plunged on the week as safe haven flows rushed out of EM... 10Y Yield tumbled on the week - not fun for those record shorts... The yield curve flattened on the week... The surge in the dollar did nothing to help commodities (but gold was only fractionally lower) And so finally we get to stocks... Chinese stocks managed solid gains on the week...(thanks to a big midweek National Team liftathon) European stocks all tumbled (with UK's FTSe managing to close the week unch)...Italy was worst... And in the US, Small Caps and Nasdaq ended the week green, S&P and Dow red and Trannies unch... 5 opening short squeezes in a row helped... VIX surge back above 13 (terrifying...) and back above its 50DMA but vol of vol is outpacing it... FANG Stocks managed gains on the week but rolled over today... Tesla was making headlines all over the place...but ended up giving back all the Saudi/LBO gains and back below the criticial $300 Convert level... Bank stocks ended the week red... Finally we note the correlation between stocks and bonds has tumbled back to its most negative (normal) since Nov 2017...
Spoiler: Weekend Reading: Why We Don't Talk Anymore Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, I have been doing a daily radio talk show for 18-years. I started out, totally by accident, doing a financial talk show on a business radio station in early 2000 as the “dot.com” crash was underway. It was the genesis of what would eventually become Real Investment Advice.com Then, in 2007, I got picked up by a larger radio station in Houston, Texas to do my own radio program and was eventually asked to expand the show to cover conservative politics. As a “fiscal conservative,” discussing the intersection of political and fiscal policies as it relates to the economy, financial markets, and our families was an easy transition. As the “financial crisis” ensued our commentary regarding capital preservation and risk management brought on a larger audience. During the next 8-years under the Obama Administration, I openly disagreed with policies like the Affordable Care Act, IRS suppression of conservative groups, and unbridled spending and debt expansion in Government. I didn’t disagree with these policies because they were from an opposing party, but because they weren’t good for the country, the economy, or our families. Importantly, my show allowed for open and honest discussions by those on both sides of the argument. While we certainly had our share of “heated” debates, they were always civil, respectful and honest. We discussed facts, exposed fallacies, and shared beliefs in an educational format. However, over the last two years, having those open and honest discussions are no longer viable. The “heated”exchanges are now simply vitriolic. There is no ability to “simply disagree” with those on the “right” or the “left” as debates are have devolved into yelling matches. The hypocrisy of both sides has become acidic. During the Obama Administration, the “right” consistently droned on about the flaws in the U-3 unemployment rate. Now, they use it as proof that Trump’s policies are working. The “left”is just as bad in switching arguments to support their narrative as well. Who would have ever believed that #FakeNews would actually be “a thing.” Just as in any marriage, when two people are no longer “talking,” the end is near. The same is true in this country. A recent PEW study shows the political divide that engulfed our country. Don’t dismiss this divide lightly. As Ben Hunt recently noted: “Has all this happened before? Sure. Time to dust off your copy of Gibbon’s Decline and Fall. Time to reread Will and Ariel Durant. Just be forewarned, the widening gyre can go on for a loooong time, particularly in the case of a major empire like Rome or America. It took the Romans about four centuries to officially exhaust themselves, at least in the West, with a few headfakes of resurgence along the way. Four centuries of mostly ridiculousness. Four centuries of profitable revenge and costly gratitude. Four centuries of a competitive equilibrium in a competitive game. Has this happened before in American history? Hard to say for sure (how dare the Pew Research Center not be active in the 1850s!), but I think yes, first in the decade-plus lead-up to the Civil War over the bimodally distributed issue of slavery, and again in the decade-plus lead-up to World War II over the bimodally distributed issue of the Great Depression. I really don’t think it was an accident that both of these widening gyres in American politics ended in a big war.” Even the Bible notes the importance of unity: “And if a house be divided against itself, that house cannot stand.” – Mark 3:25 We are currently on a path that can not end well. We are no longer talking. Yesterday, was the end of my “political” talk show. I am returning to my roots beginning September 4th to help prepare you for the coming crash. It is not a bearish view. It’s not a “doom and gloom” forecast. It is just the simple the reality we are on a collision course in this country which won’t be stopped. I hope you will tune in and listen. Just something to think about as you catch up on your weekend reading list. Economy & Fed Housing Headwinds Getting Stiffer by Danielle DiMartino-Booth via Bloomberg Trump: Good Marks For Jobs, Others Not So Much by Caroline Baum via MarketWatch US Could Be The Biggest Loser Of The Trade War by Allan Golombek via RCM Trumps Economic Claims Are Overblown by Steven Rattner via NYT CBO’s Long-Term View Is Dire by Maya McGuinness via CNN Jobs Report Validates Trump’s Policies by Louis Woodhill via RCM 2008: The Year The American Dream Died by Frank Rich via NY Magazine No, Tariffs Won’t Pay Down The National Debt by Jim Tankersley via NYT As Stocks Hit Highs, Fed Narrative Crashes by John Tamny via Forbes Tariffs Crush Small Businesses by Mike “Mish” Shedlock via TheMaven $100 Billion Tax Cut For The Wealthy by Tyler Durden via Zerohedge Who Will Blink First by Johnny Kampis via American Spectator GDP Report Proves Tump’s Policies Are Working by Jonathon Trugman via NY Post Clouds Darken Sunny Economic View by NYT Editorial Board What Are Capitalists Thinking by Michael Tomasky via NYT It Is More Important To BE American, Than BUY American by Lawrence Reed via FEE Markets Nomura: There Is A Widespread Breakdown In Macro by Tyler Durden via Zerohedge The Stock Market Is Shrinking…And That’s A Problem by Jeff Sommer via NYT Gates: Tariffs & The Economy by Shawn Langlois via MarketWatch It’s Finally Time To Buy Value Stocks by Howard Gold via MarketWatch Tracking The Hottest Market Trends by Dana Lyons via The Lyons Share 7-Reasons To Lighten Up On Stocks by Michael Brush via MarketWatch What Is In My Mutual Fund’s Active Share by Simon Constable via WSJ If This Chart Doesn’t Scare You, Nothing Will by Sue Chang via MarketWatch Morgan Stanley: Market Has Two Broken Legs by Ryan Vlastelica via MarketWatch Why The S&P 500 Could Go 10% Higher From Here by Mark Hulbert via MarketWatch Bond King Dies A Slow Death by Mark Decambre via MarketWatch A Bearish Warning Is Back by Patti Domm via CNBC How To Trade Stocks: Don’t Forecast by Alan Elliott via IBD Should Crypto Be Regulated? by Diego Zuluaga via CATO Most Read On RIA Risk Knows No Age by L. Roberts, M. Lebowitz & J. Coumarianos Whatever It Takes by Michael Lebowitz TSLA: For Whom The Bell Tolls by Doug Kass Are Bonds Sending A Signal by Lance Roberts Attention Savers: Yields Are Up by John Coumarianos Have Tariffs Worked As Planned? by Peter Cook, CFA 8-Measures Say A Crash Is Coming? by Lance Roberts Research / Interesting Reads The State Of American Debt Slaves by Wolf Richter via Wolf Street GS: Where Are We In Trade Wars by Tyler Durden via Zerohedge Apple’s Stock Market Scam by Alex Shephard via The New Republic Fed Chart Book by Axel Merk via Merk Investments The Real Problem With Paid Family Leave by Veronique de Rugy via AIER The 8-Best Long-Term Market Predictors by Mark Hulbert via WSJ Twitter: Always Nasty by Michelle Celarier via Institutional Investor Baby Boomers File For Bankruptcy At Record Pace by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge Extrapolating Growth by John Hussman via Hussman Funds “The contrary investor is every human when he resigns momentarily from the herd and thinks for himself” – Archibald MacLeish
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2018- S&P sectors for the past week-
Top and Bottom Line Beat Rates Strong But Down a Bit From Prior Quarters Aug 10, 2018 More than 2,000 companies have now reported their Q2 earnings results, and as we show below, 65.6% of companies have beaten bottom-line consensus analyst EPS estimates. The 65.6% EPS beat rate this season is above the average of just over 60% that we’ve seen going back to 1999, but it’s definitely down from the stronger readings seen over the prior two quarters. The top-line revenue beat rate is also down versus the prior two quarters. As shown below, this season we’ve seen 67.5% of companies beat top-line consensus revenue estimates. Even though the top and bottom line beat rates are above their long-term averages, we have seen a slowdown from the extremely high readings seen over the prior two quarters. Guidance Readings Down But Still Positive Aug 10, 2018 Just as earnings and revenue beat rates have dipped a bit this quarter, our guidance spread has also dipped. Below is a chart showing the spread between the percentage of companies raising guidance minus lowering guidance each quarter going back to 2001. This season, the guidance spread stands at +2 percentage points, so more companies are raising guidance than lowering guidance. As you can see in the chart, though, the spread is lower this season than it has been in the prior four quarters, indicating that companies aren’t quite as optimistic now as they’ve been at prior points over the last year. Stocks Reacting Positively to Earnings Aug 10, 2018 The second quarter earnings reporting period has actually been the most bearish for stock price reactions throughout history. It’s the only quarter of the year where stocks have historically averaged a decline (-0.09%) on their earnings reaction days going back to 2001. As shown below, though, this Q2 is shaping up very positively. The average stock that has reported this season has gained 0.52% on its earnings reaction day. (For a stock that reports after the close, its earnings reaction day is the next trading day. For a stock that reports before the open, its earnings reaction day is that trading day.) Notably, investors have bid up stocks in after-hours and pre-market trading after they’ve reported, and they’ve bid them up more during regular trading hours. Also shown in the chart below, the average stock that has reported this season has opened higher at the start of the trading day by +0.26%, and then it has averaged a further gain of 0.25% from the open of trading to the close. (The combination of the opening gap of 0.26% and the open to close move of 0.25% results in a full day change of +0.52%). During prior Q2 reporting periods, the average stock that has reported has fallen 0.09% on its earnings reaction day. In addition, the average stock that has beaten EPS estimates has gained 1.79% on its Q2 earnings reaction day, while the average stock that has missed EPS estimates has fallen 3.89% on its Q2 earnings reaction day. This season, earnings beats are performing slightly better than they normally do, while earnings misses are falling less. As shown in the chart below, the average EPS beat this season has risen 1.87% on its earnings reaction day, while the average EPS miss has only fallen 2.77%. Compared to prior Q2s, smaller declines for EPS misses this season is the big story. Best Sector This Earnings Season — Consumer Staples? Aug 10, 2018 As noted in our prior post, the average stock that has reported earnings this season has gained 0.52% on its earnings reaction day. Below we break down the average earnings reaction day change by sector this season. As shown, Consumer Staples stocks that have reported have averaged a huge gain of 2.09% on their earnings reaction days this season. Coming into this quarter, Consumer Staples was one of the most beaten down sectors of the year, so it looks as if investors got a little too bearish. Industrials and Consumer Discretionary stocks are also averaging big gains on their earnings reaction days, while Technology stocks are outperforming as well. Not all sectors are seeing gains in reaction to earnings reports. Five of eleven sectors have seen their stocks average declines on their earnings reaction days this season. Real Estate, Health Care, and Materials stocks have been the weakest, but with average declines of just -0.20% or less, the declines haven’t been that painful. What Happened to Sell in May? Posted by lplresearch The S&P 500 Index is up approximately 8% since May when we were bombarded with warnings to “Sell in May and Go Away.” Remember, the worst six months of the year historically have taken place from May through October, while the other six months are the best. As we noted at the time though (in our Weekly Market Commentary) there were many clues that suggested selling stocks in May and waiting until October to move back into equities may not work in 2018. There is still plenty of time for some usual pre-midterm election year volatility, but the reality is the bull market has surprised many by gaining each of the past four months during this seasonally weak period. “Sell in May has many bears pulling their hair out in frustration. Here’s the catch: history says when ‘Sell in May’ doesn’t work right away, the rest of the year can be quite strong. In fact, when April, May, June, and July are all higher for the S&P 500 (like in 2018), the final five months of the year have gained each of the past 10 times,” explained Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, the S&P 500 added nearly 10% on average over the final five months of the year when each month from April until July were higher. August still tends to see some seasonal weakness, but the bottom line is that this suggests higher prices may be likely before 2018 is all said and done.
Stock Market Analysis Video for August 10th, 2018 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon ShadowTrader Video Weekly 8.12.18 Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek (VIDEO NOT YET UP!)
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 8.10.18- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!- ======================================================================================================== Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (8/13) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote and stock pick! Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (8/13-8/17) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote and stock picks! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these! I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the weekly earnings calendar posted in here as well once it's out) ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 8.13.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 8.13.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 8.14.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 8.14.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 8.15.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 8.15.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 8.16.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 8.16.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 8.17.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 8.17.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
And as promised here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($NVDA $JD $HD $AMAT $WMT $CSCO $JCP $M $YY $SYY $BZUN $DE $TSG $CGC $GWGH $SPCB $CRON $AAP $VIPS $JKS $NTAP$NINE$SWCH $CSIQ $HQCL $AG $BLRX $TPR $JWN $A $CREE $EAT $CNNE $ESES $ARRY $TGEN $CAE $GDS $ROSE $SNES $SORL $EAST$AVGR) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning August 13th, 2018 <-- click there to view!
haha, yeah it'll be interesting to see if this actually flares up into anything significant for the markets, or if it'll just be blown off as most every other event this year. i thought this month would be a total snooze fest
market hitting lows going into the afternoon session here i'm not really keeping up with the market much, what's driving things today? just the same turkey news from last week? commodities taking a hit here, gold diving to some fresh lows dollar catching a bid (turkey related?) what else are you guys seeing out there
Yeah gold is really getting hit I guess the dollar index up over 1% today really hitting gold today Seeing homebuilder stocks getting smashed today. Not sure if there was any news or housing data this morning, but homebuilder stocks have been weak lately
