Welcome Stockaholics!

We are a new and fast growing financial forum! Sign up for free and let's talk stocks!

  1. Do you want to help develop this community? We are looking for contributions from investors and traders like you! What stocks do you follow? What is hot right now? Sign up and get in on the ground floor of the newest, fastest growing financial forum!
    Dismiss Notice
  2. You will notice a live chat widget on the right. Click in to join us and lets hear about how you nailed that last UWTI trade!
    Dismiss Notice

Stock Market Today: February 12th - 16th

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Feb 9, 2018.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    8,504
    Likes Received:
    2,258
    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of February 12th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]


    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]


    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]


    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Earnings: CNA Financial, Loews, Diamond Offshore, Brighthouse Financial, Vornado Realty, Dun and Bradstreet, Boardwalk Pipeline, Molina Healthcare

    2:00 p.m. Federal budget

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: PepsiCo, Under Armour, Generac, Baidu, Blue Apron, Martin Marietta Materials, MetLife, Occidental Petroleum, AllianceBernstein, Tanger Factory Outlet, Twilio, Fossil, Dana Holding

    6:00 a.m. NFIB Survey

    8:00 a.m. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Cisco Systems, Applied Materials, Credit Suisse, Dr. Pepper Snapple, Groupon, TripAdvisor, Marriott, Cedar Fair, Wyndham Worldwide, Agilent, NetApp, Kinross Gold, SunPower, Williams Cos, Waste Connections

    8:30 a.m. CPI

    8:30 a.m. Retail sales

    10:00 a.m. Business inventories

    • Thursday

    Earnings: CBS, Zoetis, Con Ed, Andeavor, Shake Shack, TrueCar, Nestle, Encana, Waste Management, TransCanada, TreeHouse, Yamana Gold, Allscripts Healthcare, Cognex, Avon Products, Brookfield Asset Management

    8:30 a.m. Initial claims

    8:30 a.m. PPI

    8:30 a.m. Empire state manufacturing

    8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing

    9:15 a.m. Industrial production

    10:00 a.m. NAHB

    4:00 p.m. TIC data

    • Friday

    Earnings: Coca-Cola, Kraft Heinz, Campbell Soup, Deere, Och-Ziff Capital Management, Ryder System, Vulcan Materials, VF Corp, JM Smuckers

    8:30 a.m. Housing starts

    8:30 a.m. Import prices

    8:30 a.m. Business leaders survey

    10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment

    10:00 a.m. QSS
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    8,504
    Likes Received:
    2,258
    'Goldilocks' Is Dead - Stocks Plunge Most Since Lehman Before Sudden Buying-Panic
    Remember January's "Goldilocks" market?

    [​IMG]

    Well it's gone...


    The Short-Vol trade implosion has now spread to the rest of the world and all other asset classes.

    China had one of its ugliest weeks ever...

    [​IMG]



    Europe was ugly...

    [​IMG]


    But US equities were a bloodbath...even wuith the sudden mysterious buyer of last resort who panic-bid stocks up (after the S&P broke below its 200DMA)...

    [​IMG]

    We've seen this pattern before.

    Dow futures were lifted 1000 points off the lows today...

    [​IMG]



    Also of note is that this panic-bid lifted the major equities out of correction...

    [​IMG]



    Stocks were on target for their worst week for US equities since Lehman in Oct 2008... (worst 2-week drop since Feb 2009)

    [​IMG]



    But after the S&P hit its 200DMA, everything bounced miraculously...

    [​IMG]



    All major indices remain red in 2018...

    [​IMG]



    The Dow saw well over 12,000 points worth of intraday swings this week...

    [​IMG]



    This the worst swing in momentum... ever...

    [​IMG]



    And the biggest swing in equity flows ever...record inflow 2 weeks ago to record outflow from equity funds this week

    [​IMG]

    VIX was notably higher on the week...

    [​IMG]



    Tagging 40 today before dumping...

    [​IMG]



    Risk started to spread to other asset classes too...

    [​IMG]



    The biggest drawdowns so far:

    • XIV (Inverse VIX ETF) -96.5%
    • Bitcoin -65% (from Jan highs)
    • China 'Big Caps' SSE50 -15%
    • Shanghai Composite -14.6%
    • EM Stocks -13.5%
    • WTI Crude -12.9%
    • Nikkei 225 -12.6%
    • Dow -12.2%
    • S&P -11.8%
    • Nasdaq -11.7%
    • DAX -11.6%
    • FANG Stocks -11.1%
    • EM Debt -9.9%
    • EU Stocks (BE500) -8.7%
    • Mexico Stocks -8.1%
    • 30Y UST Futures -7.7%
    • Brazilian Real -6.3%
    • Risk Parity Fund proxy -6.2%
    • HY Bonds (HYG) -4.5%
    • Gold -4.2%
    • Euro -2.5%
    • Offshore Yuan -1.9%
    This is the worst 10-day drop for aggregate bond and stocks returns since Feb 2009...

    [​IMG]



    Credit markets started to scream today as spreads spiked...

    [​IMG]



    Flashing another big red flag that this is far from over...

    [​IMG]



    Lots of chatter about how "bonds are blowing out" and driving equities lower... well no! only the 30Y is wider on the week! and the short-end is well lower in yield on the week...

    [​IMG]



    The key that is crushing stocks is the 2.85% region...

    [​IMG]



    The Dollar Index was up most in 2 months this week, hovering at pre-Mnuchin Massacre levels...

    [​IMG]



    Some crazy moves this week in Offshore Yuan...

    [​IMG]



    Dollar strength sent commodities lower on the week with crude and copper the biggest laggards...

    [​IMG]

    (NOTE WTI futures were hit every day this week around the US cash open)

    WTI dropped below $60 and broke below its 50DMA...

    [​IMG]



    Cryptos actually rebounded notably in the second half of the week after the US regulatory hearings went better than expected, with Litecoin leading...

    [​IMG]



    Interestingly Bitcoin and VIX decoupled as the stress remained in equity markets...

    [​IMG]



    CNBC's Bob Pisani is "very encouraged" by today's action.
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    8,504
    Likes Received:
    2,258
    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2018-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    8,504
    Likes Received:
    2,258
    S&P 500 Resets Correction Clock with 10.2% Decline
    [​IMG]
    In just 13 calendar days, from its January 26 closing high through yesterday’s close, S&P 500 declined 10.2%—an official correction. Should yesterday’s closing low hold, it will be the quickest correction by S&P 500 going back to 1949. The second quickest correction was 18 calendar days in autumn 1955 when S&P 500 shed 10.6%.

    Using a 20% peak to trough decline to define a bear market, the current bull market is 3259 calendar days old today, nearly twice as long as average since 1949. The current bull is also the second longest, surpassed by only the great bull market that closed out the last millennium. The current correction is the fourth of the current bull market which is comparable to the numbers recorded by previous bull markets of similar duration.
    [​IMG]
    The path to recovery from this correction could be slow, but it is only February 9 and over ten and a half moths remain in 2018. Plenty of time remains for the market to finish the year with a gain. The positive implications of past big Januarys and a positive January Trifecta could still be realized.

    Lastly, the S&P 500 does not have a good record when it comes to forecasting the next recession. Since June 15, 1948 there have been 11 S&P 500 bear markets and 24 corrections including the current one. Since the future is unknown, we will exclude the current correction meaning there have been 34 declines in excess of 10%. However, the National Bureau of Economic Research has only identified 11 recessions over the same time period. This works out to approximately 1 recession out of 3 S&P 500 declines in excess of 10%.

    Historically a Slow Road to Recovery After DJIA and S&P 500 Daily Losses of 4% or More
    [​IMG]
    Monday’s greater than 4% declines by DJIA and S&P 500 was just the 98th such time since 1930. To put this number into context, the market has traded a total of 23,130 days since then as of today. The last time DJIA and S&P 500 both declined more than 4% in a single day was in August 2011 when U.S. government debt was downgraded. Prior to then, there were numerous occurrences throughout the financial crisis of 2008 and into early 2009.

    Historically, both DJIA and S&P 500 were already in downtrends a vast majority of the time when the 4% or greater single-day losses took place. This is visible in the chart of DJIA and S&P 500 performance 30 trading days before and 60 trading days after above and in the 3-Month performance before the decline in the tables below.

    Comparing the historical record from 1930 to present (monster tables available here) or 1950 to present, performance 1-month after the decline is mixed. Average performance is slightly positive and DJIA and S&P 500 are higher only slightly better than half of the time. After 3-months, frequency and magnitude of gains improves, but remain tepid. Further modest improvement is seen at 6-months. However, a full year after there is a significant jump in frequency and average performance especially since 1950.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    S&P 500 Corrections
    Feb 9, 2018

    After nearly two years without one, the S&P 500 officially entered correction territory yesterday, falling 10.2% from its 1/26/18 all-time closing high. The current correction represents the 96th decline of 10%+ from a closing high that followed a gain of at least 10%. The chart below shows the magnitude of every prior correction for the S&P 500 since 1928. Not including the current period, the median decline for the S&P 500 in the 95 prior corrections was a decline of 16.4% over the course of 64 days. Keep in mind, though, that these are median levels. There have been a number of corrections (13) that saw declines of less than 11%, while several saw deeper declines of more than 20%. In terms of length, prior corrections have also been all over the map. Some have lasted as little as three days, while others have stretched on for well over a year.

    Unfortunately, there is no hard and fast rule when it comes to corrections, and that’s what can make them so terrifying when you go through one. You never know when it will end. Throughout history, market corrections have ‘typically’ occurred a little more than once per year. As mentioned above, there have been 96 corrections since 1928, but if you look at their distribution over time, a good deal of them were clustered around the Great Depression. If we look just at the post-WWII period, there have been 55 corrections in the span of 73 years, reducing their frequency to once about every 16-17 months. In any event, the market was still overdue for a correction heading into the current one, but maybe not by as much as it seemed on the surface.

    [​IMG]

    How Much Are Individual Stocks Down From Their 52-Week Highs?
    Feb 8, 2018

    The S&P 500 is currently down about 8.5% from its 52-week high less than two weeks ago, but the average stock in the S&P 500 is now down 14.3% from its respective 52-week high. That may seem like a pretty wide discrepancy, but it’s actually pretty common for the individual stock reading to be much lower than the index itself due to the fact that not all stocks hit 52-week highs at the same time as the index. In fact, you rarely even see a third of stocks hit an all-time high on the same day.

    While the ‘average’ stock is down 14.3%, the vast majority of stocks are down less than the average – 328 to be exact. Of those 328 names, 170 are still down less than 10% from their respective highs. So who is currently the biggest loser in the S&P 500? That title belongs to Range Resources (RRC). At a current price of $13.16, RRC is down over 60% from its 52-week high. Behind RRC, there are three other stocks down over 50%. They are Chesapeake (CHK), General Electric (GE), and Envision Healthcare (EVHC). The demise of GE has certainly been a major fall from grace. While the stock didn’t perform well under the leadership of Jeff Immelt, it hasn’t been any better since he left. In fact, since Immelt officially retired on October 2nd, 2017, GE shares are down more than 40%!

    On the upside, shares of Scripps Networks (SNI) have been holding up better than any S&P 500 stock as they are down less than 2% from their 52-week highs.

    [​IMG]

    El Capitan!
    Feb 8, 2018

    In our latest update to the 10-day advance/decline (A/D) lines in our Sector Snapshot report for clients, we couldn’t help but think of the rock formation El Capitan in Yosemite National Park. The chart below shows the S&P 500’s 10-day A/D line over the last year. If you are unfamiliar with the term 10-day A/D line, it is simply a rolling 10-day total of the net number of stocks in the S&P 500 rising and falling on a daily basis. When the line is positive it means more stocks are rising than falling, while a falling line means the opposite. Over the course of the last two weeks since the S&P 500’s closing high on 1/26, the 10-Day A/D line has seen an outright collapse, falling to levels not seen at any point in the last year.

    [​IMG]

    While the big drop in the 10-day A/D line is a big outlier relative to levels from the last year, from a longer-term vantage point, there have been several other periods where the 10-day A/D line was as low or lower. The most recent occurrences came back in early 2016 when the S&P 500 was getting off to its worst start to a year on record. Before that, we saw another extreme reading back in August 2015. Besides these two instances, other periods during the current bull market where the 10-Day A/D line was more negative than it now came in May 2010 (Europe Debt Crisis), August 2011 (US Debt Downgrade), and May 2012 (Greek Debt Crisis).

    [​IMG]
    Stocks Enter Correction Territory, But Should Investors Worry?
    Posted by lplresearch

    After a turbulent week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index officially slipped into correction territory at yesterday’s close—marking the fastest move from record levels to correction in history. For reference, a correction is defined as a decline of -10.0% from the most recent high, which in this case occurred just nine days ago on January 26.

    The Dow has experienced two 1,000-point declines this week, which are larger numbers than investors are used to seeing on a single day; however, it is also important to note that the Dow (which closed at 23,860.46 yesterday) is much higher now than it was the last time we experienced a significant pullback. The last time the Dow saw a larger percentage pullback in a single day was on August 8, 2011, when it fell 634.76 points to close at 10,809.85—a -5.5% move for the index. To put things in perspective, neither that move, nor the latest two drops (-4.6% and -4.1% on February 2 and February 8, respectively) managed to crack the top 100 declines in history.

    Corrections are never fun, but they also aren’t new territory for investors. Prior to the most recent example, we have experienced 36 corrections since 1980, and the S&P 500 fell by an average of 15.6% from peak to trough during these periods. Twelve months later, the index made up some ground, rising an average of 16.0% from the low, and after 24 months, the S&P 500 had climbed by an average of 28.0%, reinforcing the need for long-term investors to maintain their diversified strategies.

    [​IMG]

    John Lynch, Chief Investment Strategist stated, “Considering positive economic data and rising corporate profits, we remain favorable on the longer-term investing environment despite the near-term volatility as leveraged trades continue to unwind in a messy and choppy fashion.” We maintain our projections for gross domestic product growth of up to 3.0% in 2018, along with a trading range of 2.75% to 3.25% for the 10-year Treasury, and a fair value estimate of 2,850–2,900 for the S&P 500. Additionally, we continue to favor areas of the market which may benefit from the return of the business cycle (see our Outlook 2018 for more information), including moves toward value, small cap stocks, financials, industrials, and technology.

    LPL Research projects real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of around 3.0% in 2018. This is in line with historical mid-cycle growth of the last 50 years. Economic growth is affected by changes to inputs such as business and consumer spending, housing, net exports, capital investments, and government spending.

    LPL Research also expects the 10-year Treasury yield to end 2018 in the 2.75–3.25% range, based on its expectations for a modest pickup in growth and inflation.
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    8,504
    Likes Received:
    2,258
    Stock Market, Bitcoin & Gold Analysis for February 9th 2018
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 2.11.18
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
    (VIDEO NOT YET UP!)
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    8,504
    Likes Received:
    2,258
    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 2.9.18-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    8,504
    Likes Received:
    2,258
    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the weekly earnings calendar posted in here as well once it's out)

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 2.12.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 2.12.18 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 2.13.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 2.13.18 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 2.14.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 2.14.18 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 2.15.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 2.15.18 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Friday 2.16.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 2.16.18 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    8,504
    Likes Received:
    2,258
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    8,504
    Likes Received:
    2,258
    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market challenge threads for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    And finally, we have a brand spanking new mystery chart challenge now up!
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    8,504
    Likes Received:
    2,258
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    8,504
    Likes Received:
    2,258
    Just wanted to re-post @Rock Sexton's post into this new weekly thread here for anyone who maybe missed it on last week's thread-

    You can find the link to his post (here).

    [​IMG]
     
    stock1234 and Jrich like this.
  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    8,504
    Likes Received:
    2,258
    good morning!

    [​IMG]
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  13. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    8,504
    Likes Received:
    2,258
    Good Monday morning to everyone!

    The pre-market thread has been posted-
    [​IMG] <-- click there to read!

    Here's to a great trading week ahead to everyone in here this week!
     
    OldFart and T0rm3nted like this.
  14. Frankenstein

    Frankenstein Member

    Joined:
    May 18, 2016
    Messages:
    58
    Likes Received:
    38
    I'm thinking of exiting my long around 2,700
     
    stock1234 likes this.
  15. Frankenstein

    Frankenstein Member

    Joined:
    May 18, 2016
    Messages:
    58
    Likes Received:
    38
    The TRIN is at .55, which is suggestive of institutional buying
     
    stock1234 likes this.
  16. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    1,885
    Likes Received:
    784
    Nice day for the bulls :D We will get the CPI data this Wednesday, if we get a hot data and push the 10 year yields closer to 3%, it could be a good test for the equity markets
     
    Jrich and bigbear0083 like this.
  17. Frankenstein

    Frankenstein Member

    Joined:
    May 18, 2016
    Messages:
    58
    Likes Received:
    38
    Ok. I entered long last Thursday 2598 and I've decided to exit today 2670--profit taking. I had stated then the following: "It will go up above this level sometime in the future, according to my theory." Around 70 handles. Trading is about knowing when to enter for profit and when to exit for profit taking according to your explicit or implicit theory of the market and trading.
     
    #17 Frankenstein, Feb 12, 2018
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2018
    bigbear0083 likes this.
  18. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    8,504
    Likes Received:
    2,258
    How Normal Is This Correction?
    Posted by lplresearch

    The S&P 500 Index officially pulled back into correction territory last week for the first time since early 2016. The widely accepted definition of a correction is a 10% decline from the most recent high. What made this correction so unique is that it was the first time the S&P 500 has ever gone from a new all-time high to a correction in nine days or less.

    Nonetheless, after one of the most tranquil equity markets in history last year, seeing a pickup in volatility in 2018 shouldn’t be a surprise. In fact, a continuation of the bull markets amid higher volatility was one of the main themes in Outlook 2018: A Return of the Business Cycle.

    We looked at all 36 S&P 500 corrections since 1980 last week, but we also think the max intra-year pullback, along with the total return for the S&P 500 for each calendar year starting in 1980, provides a few more helpful takeaways:
    • The average max intra-year pullback is 13.7%; compare that to 2017’s 2.8%.
    • Half of all years (19 out of 38) saw at least a 10% correction during the year.
    • 13 of the 19 years with a correction finished higher on the year.
    • The average total return for the S&P 500 during a year that had a correction was 7.2%.
    [​IMG]

    “The reality is a 10% correction is quite normal. In fact, years that have a correction but don’t fall into a recession tend to bounce back and usually finish green for the year. With our analysis suggesting a small chance of a recession over the next 12 months, recent weakness could prove to be a buying opportunity for long-term investors,” according to Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist.

    For more on the recent pullback, what happened, where we could be going from here, and what investors could do; be sure to read what John Lynch, Chief Investment Strategist, wrote in our latest Weekly Market Commentary coming out later today.
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  19. Frankenstein

    Frankenstein Member

    Joined:
    May 18, 2016
    Messages:
    58
    Likes Received:
    38
    Yea, hopefully, the market will behave normally from this point forward. Lots of opportunities for swing trading, if that were the case
     
  20. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    8,504
    Likes Received:
    2,258
    good morning!

    [​IMG]
     

Share This Page