Welcome Stockaholics!

We are a new and fast growing financial forum! Sign up for free and let's talk stocks!

  1. Do you want to help develop this community? We are looking for contributions from investors and traders like you! What stocks do you follow? What is hot right now? Sign up and get in on the ground floor of the newest, fastest growing financial forum!
    Dismiss Notice
  2. You will notice a live chat widget on the right. Click in to join us and lets hear about how you nailed that last UWTI trade!
    Dismiss Notice

Stock Market Today: February 18th - 22nd, 2019

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Feb 15, 2019.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    16,391
    Likes Received:
    5,323
    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of February 18th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]


    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]


    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]


    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Market holiday

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: Walmart, American Water Works, Anglogold, Advance Auto Parts, Expeditors International, Genuine Parts, Noble Energy,HSBC, BHP Billiton, FirstEnergy, Host Hotels, Devon Energy, Herbalife Nutrition

    8:30 a.m. Business leaders survey

    8:50 a.m. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester

    10:00 a.m. NAHB survey

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: CVS Health, Bausch Health, HollyFrontier, Gannett,Owens Corning, Wolverine Worldwide, Boston Beer, Cheesecake Factory, Sturm Ruger, Universal Forest Products, Weingarten Realty, WPX Energy, Avis Budget, Energy Transfer, Flowserve, Kaiser Aluminum, Jack in the Box, Avis Budget, Energy Transfer, Entergy, Southern Co

    8:30 a.m. Housing starts

    2:00 p.m. FOMC minutes

    • Thursday

    Earnings: Barclays, Baidu, Kraft Heinz, Hormel Foods, Hewlett Packard Enterprises, Caesars Entertainment, Zillow, First Solar,Intuit, Delphi Automotive, Norwegian Cruise Lines, Sprouts Farmers Market, Allscripts Healthcare, Axa, Eldorado Gold,Visteon, Wendy's, Windstream, Dropbox, Reliance Steel and Aluminum, Norwegian Cruise Line

    7:50 a.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

    8:30 a.m. Jobless claims

    8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing

    9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI

    9:45 a.m. Services PMI

    10:00 a.m. Existing home sales

    • Friday

    Earnings: Royal Bank of Canada, AutoNation, Cabot Oil and Gas,Wayfair, Cinemark, Pinnacle West

    10:15 a.m. New York Fed President John Williams and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly

    12:00 p.m. Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida

    1:30 p.m. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles, Kansas City Fed President James Bullard

    5:30 p.m. New York Fed President John Williams
     
  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    16,391
    Likes Received:
    5,323
    "Goldilocks, My A$$" - Stocks Soar As Economic Data Crashes Most Since 2011
    2019 is off to the best start to a year since 1991 for the S&P 500...

    [​IMG]

    As Earnings expectations have their worst 3-month drop in four years...

    [​IMG]

    And macro data collapses...

    [​IMG]

    That is the biggest weekly collapse in US Macro data since June 2011...

    [​IMG]

    So, Stocks are back near record highs, earnings expectations have collapsed to 6-month lows and US Macroeconomic data is the weakest in 18 months (and crashing)...





    * * *

    Very mixed week for Chinese stocks with tech/small cap-heavy CHINEXT soaring and mega cap SSE50 almost unchanged...

    [​IMG]

    And China's CSI-300 broke back below its 200DMA...

    [​IMG]

    European markets were all higher on the week, led by Italy up 4.5%...

    [​IMG]



    All major US equity indices surged this week - for the 8th straight week...

    [​IMG]



    After 4 days with a drop in the last 30 mins of trading, today saw the late-day buying-panic reappear...

    [​IMG]



    Futures show the craziness better as markets went vertical at the cash open but Dow (up) and Nasdaq (down) diverged notably...

    [​IMG]

    Dow futs closed over 600 points higher than the overnight lows on the shittiest week's macro-economic data in 8 years!! "Goldilocks, my ass" as one veteran trader said.

    S&P managed to break above its 200DMA but Nasdaq could not...

    [​IMG]



    Shorts were squeezed higher for the 7th day in row...

    [​IMG]



    And Buybacks dominated once again...

    [​IMG]



    AAPL traded down on the day after Buffett reduced his exposure...(and so did AMZN amid all the NY chaos)

    [​IMG]



    Toymakers were trounced...

    [​IMG]



    Small Caps are the year's best performer - up over 16% YTD... (Dow, S&P up over 10%)

    [​IMG]



    VIX tumbled to a 14 handle and credit spreads collapsed on the week...

    [​IMG]



    And before we leave equityland, here is the S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF!!!

    [​IMG]



    While stocks soared, bonds were nto playing along (again)...

    [​IMG]



    Treasury yields rose modestly on the week (with the long-end outperforming)...heavy calendar early in the week drove rates higher

    [​IMG]



    Sending the yield curve notably flatter once again...

    [​IMG]



    And 30Y Yield closed back below 3.00%...

    [​IMG]



    The dollar dipped for the second day in a row but ended higher on the week...

    [​IMG]



    China came back from its weeklong new year holiday, but the Yuan went nowhere...

    [​IMG]



    Ether and Litecoin managed gains on the week with small losses for Bitcoin...

    [​IMG]



    Despite dollar gains on the week, crude and gold both made gains...

    [​IMG]



    It's been quite ride for oil prices...

    [​IMG]



    Gold was modestly higher against the dollar on the week, but notably stringer against the Yuan - strongest since 2016

    [​IMG]


    Finally, as Bloomberg's Ye Xie notes, by one measure, the S&P 500 is on track for the second best quarter in history.

    [​IMG]

    The S&P has gained 22 days this year as of yesterday, or 71% of the trading sessions. If this pattern holds, it'll be the best three-month period since second quarter of 1955, when the SPX jumped 12% and closed up 26% on the year.

    Probably nothing to worry about...

    [​IMG]

    But if there's nothing to worry about, why did The Fed signal its extreme dovishness and why did the world's central banks suddenly restart the printing press?

    [​IMG]

    Bonus Chart: Cheap, it ain't!!

    [​IMG]
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    16,391
    Likes Received:
    5,323
    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2019-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    16,391
    Likes Received:
    5,323
    Day After Presidents’ Day: Improving, But Record Still Bearish
    [​IMG]
    Yesterday we pointed out the day before Presidents’ Day was amongst the poorest performing holiday over the long run. The day after is even weaker over the long run. However since 2012, the market’s performance after the long holiday weekend has improved, most notably during the last seven years with S&P 500 positive in six of these years.
    [​IMG]
    Should Investors Love A Great Start to 2019?
    Posted by lplresearch

    Happy Valentine’s Day everyone! With the S&P 500 Index up 9.8% for the year as of yesterday, this is its best start up to this point since 1991. So should investors love to see this much green this early in the year, or should they be leery they might be heartbroken down the road?

    An old adage on Wall Street suggests, “As goes January, so goes the year.” With stocks having posted their best January in more than 30 years, it’s time to take a closer look at the January barometer, first discussed in 1972 by Yale Hirsh of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. Simply put, if the first month of the year is green, it bodes well for the rest of the year (and vice versa).

    Let’s get one thing straight—this didn’t work last year. The S&P 500 was up more than 5% in January of 2018, and it closed the year in the red. Nonetheless, the January barometer has a strong track record, and one we shouldn’t ignore.

    As shown below in the LPL Chart of the Day, the numbers confirm that when the S&P 500 has been green in January, the rest of the year (final 11 months) has been up 11.7% on average, well above the overall average return of 7.6% for the final 11 months of the year. However, when that first month was red, the final 11 months were up only 1.2% on average. According to LPL Research Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick, “The January barometer isn’t perfect, but it does have a pretty solid track record. Now where things really get interesting is when that first month was up more than 7% (like in 2019), the return over the final 11 months actually became stronger.”

    [​IMG]

    Of course, we don’t suggest investing based simply on what the first month does, but with a more accommodative Federal Reserve, fiscal policy still flowing, and likely continued better-than-expected corporate earnings growth, this is yet another sign that 2019 may see a continuation of the bull market, as we outlined previously in our Outlook 2019.

    In all the instances when the S&P 500 was up more than 7% at the end of January, the rest of the year gained five out of six times, with only 1987 negative. Still, a 10.3% return over the final 11 months implies we’d see new highs before 2019 is over. Last, be open to a pullback, as a median correction of 8.1% has happened in the past after super strong starts to the year.

    [​IMG]

    Best and Worst Performing Stocks on Earnings
    Feb 13, 2019

    The Q4 2018 earnings reporting period is quickly approaching its end point with Wal-Mart’s (WMT) report scheduled for next Tuesday. So far this season, the average stock that has reported has gained 0.61% on its earnings reaction day (the first trading day following its after-hours or pre-market release).

    Below is a look at the stocks that have posted the strongest upside one-day returns in reaction to their earnings reports this season. At the top of the list is cloud customer service software company eGain (EGAN), which nearly doubled (+47.7%) back on February 8th after it beat both EPS and revenue estimates. EGAN shareholders certainly went home happy that night since you don’t see one-day gains of 50% very often!

    Coty (COTY) — which was mentioned positively by Bill Miller at the start of the month — ranks second on the list with a one-day gain of 32.15% after it reported before the open on February 8th. And toy-maker Mattel (MAT) has posted the 3rd strongest gain on earnings at +23.22%.

    Other notables on the list of big winners this earnings season include semiconductor company Advanced Micro (AMD), flower-delivery company 1-800-FLOWERS (FLWS), shoe-maker Skechers (SKX), and Mueller Industries (MLI) — not to be confused with THAT Mueller.
    [​IMG]

    Looking at S&P 500 stocks specifically, Coty (COTY), Mattel (MAT), Hanesbrands (HBI), Advanced Micro (AMD) and Xilinx (XLNX) ranks as the top five, while other companies on the list you’re certainly familiar with include General Electric (GE), Estee Lauder (EL), Chipotle (CMG), Facebook (FB), Goldman Sachs (GS), IBM, and Bank of America (BAC).

    [​IMG]

    While there’s a long list of earnings season winners, there have also been plenty of big losers. Below we show the 40 worst performing stocks in reaction to their earnings reports this season. Whereas eGain (EGAN) gained nearly 50% in reaction to earnings, wireless security camera maker Arlo Technologies (ARLO) fell nearly 50% following its report on February 5th. Other notables on the list of losers include Tupperware (TUP), The Container Store (TCS), QuinStreet (QNST), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), Take Two Interactive (TTWO), and Electronic Arts (EA). Ironically, EA fell 13% following earnings back on February 5th, but it has exploded higher to recover all of its earnings losses and then some after its new Fortnite competitor — Apex — registered 10 million users in its first 72 hours.

    [​IMG]

    Update: Guidance Spread Can’t Find a Bottom
    Feb 13, 2019

    The first snapshot below is an updated look at the rolling 3-month beat rate for both EPS and revenues. These readings show the percentage of companies that have beaten consensus EPS or revenue estimates over a rolling 3-month basis. As shown, the earnings beat rate has been drifting lower recently after peaking in mid-2018. Even after the declines, though, the current reading is still more than 4 points above the historical average. The revenue beat rate peaked at the same time as the earnings beat rate in mid-2018, but it has fallen a lot more since then and is now just above its long-term average. Top-line revenue numbers are much harder for companies to “manufacture” than bottom-line EPS, so we put more stock in the revenue beat rate than the EPS beat rate.
    [​IMG]

    Our guidance spread measures the difference between the percentage of companies raising guidance and lowering guidance on a rolling 3-month basis. As shown in the chart below, the guidance spread reading currently stands at -6.59, which means a lot more companies have lowered guidance than raised guidance over the last three months. Similar to EPS and revenue beat rates, our guidance spread reading peaked in mid-2018 at a very high level of 10+. At its peak, companies were as bullish on the future as they had been in nearly a decade going back to the early days of the post-Financial Crisis bull market. Now the picture looks much different as companies can’t seem to lower guidance quickly enough. We’ll be watching closely to see when this reading is ready to stop falling and begin to turn higher again. As you can see in the chart, there is definitely an ebb and flow to it as companies collectively get either too optimistic or pessimistic.

    [​IMG]

    As beat rates and guidance readings weakened in the 2nd half of 2018, we didn’t see a corresponding drop in the price reactions of stocks reporting earnings. The chart below measures the median one-day price change that stocks reporting earnings are experiencing on a rolling 3-month basis. This reading tells you how positively or negatively stocks are reacting to earnings reports.

    As shown, earlier this earnings season, stock price reactions hit their highest level of the last five years. We’ve seen a drop, over the last few weeks, however, which is something to keep an eye on as the broad market continues to chug along in 2019.

    [​IMG]

    The Year of the Pig Could Have Bulls Smiling
    Posted by lplresearch

    “Bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered.” Old Wall Street saying.

    The Chinese New Year (often called the Lunar New Year) kicked off Tuesday, February 5, and with it came the Year of the Pig. Although we would never suggest investing based on the zodiac signs—it is important to note that the Year of the Pig has historically been quite strong for equities.

    Since the Chinese New Year typically starts between late-January and mid-February, we looked at the 12-month return of the S&P 500 Index starting in late January dating all the way back to 1928.* And wouldn’t you know it? The Year of the Pig is up nearly 15% on average. Oink oink indeed!

    [​IMG]

    “The year of the pig is the twelfth of the 12 animal signs of the Chinese zodiac, and the pig is considered a symbol of wealth in Chinese culture, which is quite interesting given some strong equity returns have taken place during this year. In fact, out of the 12 zodiac signs, no year sports a better average return,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick.

    [​IMG]

    Be aware that a small sample size and the pure randomness of this makes us want to stress not to ever invest purely based on the zodiac signs. Still, here’s to the year of the pig playing out for the bulls once again!
     
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    16,391
    Likes Received:
    5,323
    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 2.15.19-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    16,391
    Likes Received:
    5,323
    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    16,391
    Likes Received:
    5,323
    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    16,391
    Likes Received:
    5,323
    Stock Market Analysis Video for February 15th, 2019
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 2.17.19
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
    (VIDEO NOT YET UP!)
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    16,391
    Likes Received:
    5,323
    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-

    [​IMG]
     
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    16,391
    Likes Received:
    5,323
    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 2.18.19 Before Market Open:
    NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF PRESIDENT'S DAY!)

    Monday 2.18.19 After Market Close:
    NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF PRESIDENT'S DAY!)

    Tuesday 2.19.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 2.19.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 2.20.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 2.20.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 2.21.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 2.21.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Friday 2.22.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 2.22.19 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    16,391
    Likes Received:
    5,323
    And as promised here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($IQ $ORKU $WMT $CVS $BIDU $AAP $TTD $MDT $DPZ $DBX $GPC $HBC $SLCA $WIX $TSEM $CTB $KHC $HIMX $CSV $W $VIPS $TTS $BEAT$CTG $USAC $SAGE $RIG $OLED $EXAS $EXPD $AAWW $HFC $FTI $NBL $ET $WBT $NEO $ALLE $NBLX $ECL $GRMN $FELE $WLK)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    16,391
    Likes Received:
    5,323
    Just a quick reminder to all in here that this coming Monday, Feb. 18th the NYSE is closed in observance of President's Day.

    Here is the CME Globex futures holiday schedule for the upcoming President's Day holiday-

    [​IMG]
     
  13. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    16,391
    Likes Received:
    5,323
    not sure if I'll get a chance to post up the shadowtrader video weekly as i'll be out for much of this weekend, so i'll just throw in the link to their latest videos page on youtube.

    once the newest video is out you'll see it on the very first videos on this link here:

    https://www.youtube.com/user/shadowtrader01/videos

    enjoy the long weekend everyone!
     
  14. Stoch

    Stoch Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2019
    Messages:
    152
    Likes Received:
    89
    Amazed at the disconnect between the market and the data you post here. I always liked this site from the Atlanta Fed. Big drop this past week.
    upload_2019-2-18_20-35-18.png
     
    stock1234, bigbear0083 and T0rm3nted like this.
  15. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    16,391
    Likes Received:
    5,323
  16. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    16,391
    Likes Received:
    5,323
    Good Tuesday morning to all.

    Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
    [​IMG] <-- click there to read!

    Hope everyone has a good trading day and week ahead.
     
  17. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    16,391
    Likes Received:
    5,323
    Morning Lineup – Walmart Ends Earnings Season on a Positive Note
    Feb 19, 2019

    We’ve always considered Walmart’s (WMT) earnings report to mark to unofficial end to earnings season. While there are still plenty of other reports left to get through, the vast majority of companies have already reported their performance metrics for the prior quarter. This morning WMT reported and ended earnings season on a positive note. The company handily exceeded EPS forecasts, revenues were inline with forecasts, and the company reaffirmed guidance. In reaction to the news, shares rallied over 3.5%, and after closing at $99.99 on Friday jumped back above the triple-digit mark this morning.

    Today’s rally in WMT will mark the fourth straight quarter that the company has had a positive reaction to earnings, but one thing to keep in mind is that following each of those three prior reports it didn’t pay to chase the strength. As our Earnings Explorer tool illustrates, following each of those three prior positive opens, the stock gave up at least some of those initial gains during the trading day.

    [​IMG]
     
    stock1234 likes this.
  18. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 24, 2016
    Messages:
    955
    Likes Received:
    473
    JNUG taking off - calls are up over 155% today. I sold half at 100% - letting the rest ride along with my CRC calls
     
    stock1234 and Steven_Burt like this.
  19. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 24, 2016
    Messages:
    955
    Likes Received:
    473
    I have a stop loss at 1.02 on the JNUG calls - they are the 3/1 12$ Calls. Picked them up at .34 yesterday going into the close.
     
    Steven_Burt likes this.
  20. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    3,853
    Likes Received:
    2,606
    Wow gold up huge today :eek: Dollar index is down but not down a lot, so pretty impressive move by gold today
     
    bigbear0083 and Steven_Burt like this.

Share This Page