Stock Market Today: February 26th - March 2nd, 2018

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by Stockaholic, Feb 23, 2018.

  1. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of February 26th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]


    Major Indices End of Week:
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    Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday:
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    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
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    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
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    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Earnings: Dean Foods, Luxottica, Fitbit, Oneok, Palo Alto Networks, Tenet Healthcare, Scripps Network Interactive

    8:00 a.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard

    10:00 a.m. New home sales

    3:15 p.m. Fed Governor Randal Quarles

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: Macy's, Toll Brothers, Discovery communications, AutoZone,SeaWorld, Steve Madden, Sempra Energy, Booking Holdings, Workday, Axon, Square, EOG, Range Resources, Hertz Global, Etsy, Weight Watchers, Tesaro

    8:30 a.m. Durable goods

    8:30 a.m. Advanced economic indicators

    9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller HPI

    9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices

    10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence

    10:00 a.m. Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies before House Financial Services Committee on economy

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Mylan, Salesforce.com, L Brands, Ambac Financial, Hostess Brands, Monster Beverage

    8:30 a.m. Q4 GDP (2nd reading)

    9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI

    10:00 a.m. Pending home sales

    • Thursday

    Monthly vehicle sales

    Earnings: A-B InBev, Nordstrom, American Outdoor Brands, Kohl's,Sotheyby's, VMWare, Gap, WPP Group, Barnes and Noble, Pinnacle Foods, Best Buy, AMC Networks

    8:30 a.m. Jobless claims

    8:30 a.m. Personal income and spending

    8:30 a.m. Core PCE prices

    9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI

    10:00 a.m. ISM manufacturing

    10:00 a.m. Construction spending

    10:00 a.m. Fed Chair Powell testifies before Senate Banking Committee

    11:00 a.m. New York Fed President William Dudley in Brazil

    • Friday

    Earnings: JC Penney, Foot Locker, JD.com

    10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment
     
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  2. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Bonds Break 7-Week Losing Streak As Fed Balance Sheet Tumbles Most In 6 Years
    A week of turmoiling up and down in rates and stocks... for not very much...


    On the day we saw the same old pattern of gap up open, then weakness... but this time the latter half of the day saw buying, not selling...

    [​IMG]


    The Dow and Small Caps managed to creep back into the green for the week as Nasdaq melted up to Wednesday's highs this afternoon (as bond yields tumbled)...

    [​IMG]



    The Dow bounced back to its 61.8% retracement zone.

    [​IMG]


    S&P managed to get back above (and close above) its 50DMA...

    [​IMG]



    Credit markets had a notably weak week, diverging dramatically from equity risk...

    [​IMG]



    Treasury yields were mixed on the week with the belly outperforming (and lower) while 2Y and 30Y were both higher...

    [​IMG]



    With the 2s10s curve flatter for the 2nd week in a row...

    [​IMG]



    Very oddly, we note that 10Y Breakevens spiked dramatically as stocks ramped this afternoon... but 10Y TSY yields slipped lower...

    [​IMG]



    10Y Yields were up 7 weeks in a row ahead of this week but the 10Y closed below last Friday's close of 2.8749% breaking the losing streak...

    [​IMG]

    As Bloomberg notes, That's quite an unusual situation. The last time it happened was in May 2008, and before that it was May 2004. An eight-week streak of higher yields would have been the longest since a nine-week surge ending on April 1, 1994. Here's the S&P 500 during those nine weeks:

    [​IMG]

    But we note that US stocks are now their 'most expensive' relative to bonds since 2008...

    [​IMG]



    The Dollar Index limped lower for the second day (coincidentally since China has returned from its new year festivities, banned VIX, and bailed out Anbang)...but ended higher on the week (3rd weekly gain of the last 4 weeks)

    [​IMG]

    NOTE how tight the range has been in the last 36 hours.



    WTI bounced for the 2nd week in a row but dollar strength hit cooper and PMs...

    [​IMG]



    NOTE that WTI/RBOB are back at somewhat key technical levels right before the XIV-driven collapse...

    [​IMG]



    Bitcoin bounced back above $10,000 today - back to unchanged for February - but is marginally lower on the week (as the rest of the crypto space got hammered)...

    [​IMG]



    Nasdaq and Bitcoin recoupled earlier today but this afternoon saw stocks higher and crypto slipped lower...

    [​IMG]

    Is Bitcoin the leading indicator for The Dow?

    [​IMG]



    Finally, You Are (Still) Here...

    [​IMG]



    Bonus Chart: The Fed Balance Sheet dropped $23.2bn this week (to 2/21) - that's the most since March 2012. The Fed balance sheet is now at its lowest since August 2014...

    [​IMG]
     
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  3. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

    Shortly after the Tax Cut/Reform bill was passed by Congress, I did some analysis discussing the various myths of how those “tax cuts,”since they were primarily focused on corporations, would actually turn out.

    Well, just two months into 2018, we already have some answers.

    Myth 1: Tax cuts will lead to a huge ramp up in earnings.

    The problem with the idea that tax cuts will result in a huge increase in bottom-line earnings, is that estimates got way ahead of reality.

    For example, in October of 2017, the estimates for REPORTED earnings for Q4, 2017 and Q1, 2018 were $116.50 and $119.76 respectively. As of February 15th, the numbers are $106.84 and $112.61 or a difference of -$9.66 and -7.15 respectively.

    First, while asset prices have surged to record highs, reported earnings estimates through Q3-2018 have already been ratcheted back to a level only slightly above where 2017 was expected to end in 2016. As shown by the red horizontal bars – estimates through Q3 are at the same level they were in January, 2017. (Of course, “hope springs eternal that Q4 of this year will see one of the sharpest ramps in earnings in S&P history.)

    [​IMG]

    Wall Street ALWAYS over-estimates earnings and by about 33% on average. That overestimation provides a significant amount of headroom for Wall Street to be disappointed by year end, particularly once you factor in the “effective” tax rate that most companies actually pay.

    But even if we give Wall Street the benefit of the doubt and assume their predictions will be correct for the first time in human history, stock prices have already priced in twice the rate of EPS growth.

    [​IMG]

    It is quite likely that once again Wall Street is extrapolating the last few quarters of earnings growth ad infinitum and providing even more fodder for the market rally. It is also quite likely Wall Street will be proven wrong on earnings as so often has occurred in the past.

    Myth 2: Corporations will use those tax cuts to hire employees and boost wages

    As I discussed previously:

    “The same is true for the myth that tax cuts lead to higher wages. Again, as with economic growth, there is no evidence that cutting taxes increases wage growth for average Americans. This is particularly the case currently as companies are sourcing every accounting gimmick, share repurchase or productivity increasing enhancement possible to increase profit growth.

    Not surprisingly, our guess that corporations would utilize the benefits of “tax cuts” to boost bottom line earnings rather than increase wages has turned out to be true. As noted by Axios, in just the first two months of this year companies have already announced over $173 BILLION in stock buybacks. This is “financial engineering gone mad” and something RIA analyst, Jesse Colombo, noted yesterday:

    “How have U.S. corporations been deploying their new influx of capital? Unlike in prior cycles – when corporations favored long-term business investments and expansions – corporations have largely focused on juicing their stock prices via share buybacks, dividends, and mergers & acquisitions. While this pleases shareholders and boosts executive compensation, this short-term approach is detrimental to the long-term success of American corporations. The chart below shows the surge in share buybacks and dividends paid, which is a direct byproduct of the current artificially low interest rate environment. Even more alarming is the fact that share buybacks are expected to exceed $1 trillion this year, which would blow all prior records out of the water. The passing of President Donald Trump’s tax reform plan was the primary catalyst that encouraged corporations to dramatically ramp up their share buyback plans.”


    [​IMG]

    “What is even more unwise about the current share buyback mania is the fact that it is occurring at extremely high valuations, which is tantamount to ‘throwing good money after bad.'”

    Furthermore, there is scant evidence that wages are improving for the masses versus those in the executive “C-suite.”

    [​IMG]

    While well-designed tax reforms can certainly provide for better economic growth, those tax cuts must also be combined with responsible spending in Washington. That has yet to be the case as policy-makers continue to opt for “continuing resolutions” that grow expenditures by 8% per year and tack on another $2 Trillion in spending rather than doing the hard work of passing a budget.

    Policymakers had the opportunity to pass true, pro-growth, tax reform and show they were serious about our nations fiscal future, they instead opted to continue enriching the top 1% at the expense of empowering the middle class.

    In the end, it is all working out exactly like we expected.

    Here is your weekend reading list.

    Economy & Fed
    Markets

    Research / Interesting Reads
    “Based on my own personal experience – both as an investor in recent years and an expert witness in years past – rarely do more than three or four variables really count. Everything else is noise.” ― Martin Whitman
     
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  4. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2018-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
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  5. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    March Performance Above Average in Midterm Years
    [​IMG]
    Tempestuous March markets tend to drive prices up early in the month and batter stocks at month end. Julius Caesar failed to heed the famous warning to “beware the Ides of March” but investors have been served well when they have. Stock prices have a propensity to decline, sometimes rather precipitously, during the latter days of the month.

    March packs a rather busy docket. It is the end of the first quarter, which brings with it Triple Witching and an abundance of portfolio maneuvers from The Street. March Triple-Witching Weeks have been quite bullish in recent years. But the week after is the exact opposite, DJIA down 20 of the last 30 years—and frequently down sharply for an average drop of 0.54%. Notable gains during the week after for DJIA of 4.9% in 2000, 3.1% in 2007, 6.8% in 2009, and 3.1% in 2011 are the rare exceptions to this historically poor performing timeframe.

    Normally a solid performing market month, March improves modestly in midterm-election years (see Vital Statistics table below). In midterm years March ranks: 4th best for DJIA and S&P 500 and 3rd best for NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have been up for five straight midterm Marchs.
    [​IMG]
    Watch Out for End of February Weakness
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    Over the most recent 22-year time span the end of February has been prone to weakness. The bulk of the weakness appears to land on the last trading day of the month or the penultimate trading day, but it can begin as early as the fourth to last trading day. This weakness has been evident in Februarys with a gain or a loss. Perhaps it is the winding down of earnings season that triggers weakness in some years. This weakness can be seen graphically on page 20 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2018 or in our post last month “February’s performance generally improves in midterm years,” and in the table below.
    [​IMG]
    Turning on a Dime
    Feb 23, 2018

    When you look back on the last three weeks, it really is quite amazing how quickly sentiment towards the market has shifted. In January, absolutely nothing could go wrong as all stocks could do was go up. Now, three weeks removed from the January peak, there’s been a definite shift in tone. While we are far (really far) from panic or bearishness, a fog of unease has definitely set in as investors fret over the Fed, rising interest rates, and inflation.

    A look at intraday market performance also shows the shift in tone pretty clearly. The first chart below is an intraday composite of the S&P 500 from the start of the year through 1/26. The chart simply shows the S&P 500’s average performance relative to the prior day’s close at every point in the trading day. It’s basically what the “average” trading day has looked like this year. For the first three weeks and change of the year, investors couldn’t get enough of the stock market. The typical pattern in those first eighteen trading days of the year was a higher open with steady gains throughout the trading day. Barring a slight lull from 10:30 to 11:30 and then from 2:00 to 3:00 (ET), stocks just drifted higher.

    [​IMG]

    The picture of the S&P 500 in the 19 trading days since the peak couldn’t be more different. Rather than gapping up in the morning, the market has typically opened flat to lower and then trended lower all day. Volatility has definitely picked up as well. Whereas the chart above is nice and steady, the chart since the 1/26 peak below could just as well be the output of a cardiac device monitoring someone watching the intraday swings. Where the volatility has really picked up is late in the day when there have been sharp declines to the downside.

    From time to time, we discuss the Smart Money Indicator which basically says that while the emotional ‘dumb’ money trades at the open, the more restrained and less emotional ‘smart’ money trades towards the end of the day. If that is the case, the shift in market tone is something bulls really need to focus on. While both the smart and dumb money were buying equities with both fists to kick off the year, since the 1/26 peak, the smart money has been selling. It has only been less than a month, but if the trend of the last few weeks and especially the last few days keeps up, it will be a big red flag from the Smart Money Indicator.

    [​IMG]

    Economic Surprises Turn South in Europe
    Feb 23, 2018

    It was a disappointing week on the data front over in Europe. With almost across the board weakness in PMI indices, the Citi Economic Surprise Index for the region plummeted from over 20 earlier in the week to below zero on Wednesday. While the Citi Surprise indices tend to oscillate between positive and negative levels as expectations tend to get too positive when the data is good and too negative when the data is weak, the most recent dip into negative territory is notable due to the fact that it ended a streak of 358 straight days of positive readings. That’s right, the last time this indicator had a negative reading was in September 2016!

    The chart below shows the historical readings of the Citi Economic Surprise Index for the European region with periods where the index was in positive territory shaded in gray. While streaks longer than 100 trading days going back to 2003 aren’t necessarily uncommon, the length of the most recent streak was by far the longest on record, exceeding the next longest streak (ending in July 2006) by nearly 100 trading days. So while it shouldn’t necessarily come as a surprise that the recent data was disappointing, the fact that it has been so long makes it feel all the more uncommon.

    [​IMG]

    While economic data is starting to disappoint to the downside, data in the US continues to trend ahead of expectations. In fact, just this week, the Citi Economic Surprise Index for the US was positive for its 100th straight trading day. Going back to 2003, the current streak is just the sixth time that the US Surprise index has been positive for 100 or more trading days compared to eight for Europe. Another difference between the trends in the European and US surprise indices is that streaks of positive readings have been more prolonged in Europe than the US. Whereas there have been five positive streaks that lasted more than 150 trading days in Europe, just one in the US has lasted that long.

    [​IMG]
    Strongest Earnings Beat Rate Since Q3 2006
    Feb 22, 2018

    Yesterday we sent Bespoke members a full rundown of results from the just-completed earnings season. One stat we can highlight here is the earnings beat rate from this season. As shown below, the percentage of companies that reported EPS that were stronger than consensus analyst estimates came in at 69%. For those keeping score, that’s the strongest beat rate since Q3 2006, and the sixth strongest beat rate over the last 20 years.

    You might remember that analysts were hiking their EPS estimates at a record pace heading into the most recent earnings season, which makes the extremely strong beat rate (relative to recent earnings seasons) even more impressive.

    [​IMG]

    One for the Bears
    Posted by lplresearch

    The S&P 500 Index officially closed beneath the low close from December 2017 earlier this month. Why does that matter? Historically, this has been a warning sign of potential equity weakness so it may be worth considering more. Developed by Lucien Hooper, a Forbes columnist and analyst in the 1970s, the December Low Indicator suggests that if the S&P 500 closes beneath the previous December’s low close during the subsequent first quarter, trouble could be brewing.

    “There is definitely something to the December Low Indicator. When the lows are violated, like they were this year, the S&P 500 has gained just 3.3% on average, versus a 22.1% average return when the lows aren’t violated,” said Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist.

    [​IMG]

    Don’t start panicking though. History suggests stocks may still end the year in positive territory, and the indicator hasn’t been nearly the warning sign as it once was. In fact, the previous eight times the lows were violated, the full year was higher seven of those times with some solid gains.

    [​IMG]

    “This concerns us, but in the end, over the past 15 years these warnings haven’t panned out. We instead advise investors to take note of this warning, but don’t forget that global economic growth is accelerating, as are corporate earnings; and the benefits from tax reform and fiscal policy may continue to improve the U.S. economic backdrop as well,” said Detrick.

    Can Stocks Beat Bonds Again?
    Posted by lplresearch

    We all know this is one of the longest and largest bull markets ever, with the bull set to turn nine years old next month. Under the surface, another incredible streak is also taking place. Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, points out that “Few realize stocks have beaten bonds for six consecutive years now. Should stocks once again top bonds, it would be stocks’ longest winning streak over bonds in history.”

    [​IMG]

    Historically, stocks (measured by the S&P 500 Index) have beaten bonds (measured by the 10-year Treasury bond) six years in a row on just two occasions, most recently from 1994 to 1999. With the S&P 500 barely positive and most Treasury bonds down this year as rates continue to move higher, one may wonder if both asset classes will finish lower in 2018. “History says the odds of both stocks and bonds posting negative returns in the same year are unlikely. In fact, over the past 90 years stocks and bonds have both finished lower just three times, with the most recent example in 1969. Our take is that bond returns could be somewhat muted this year, while solid corporate earnings, a positive global backdrop, and benefits from tax reform and fiscal legislation may help equities potentially sport double-digit gains,” said Detrick.

    But while we expect stocks to top bonds this year, to be clear, we continue to believe that high-quality bonds may help mitigate portfolio risk for diversified long-term portfolios, as we recently noted in Why Own Bonds?. For more of our thoughts on equities versus bonds, be sure to read our recent Weekly Market Commentary, Out of the Woods?.
     
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  6. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Stock Market Analysis Video for February 23rd 2018
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 2.25.18 - Can't Truss It!
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
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  7. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 2.23.18-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
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  8. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the weekly earnings calendar posted in here as well once it's out)

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 2.26.18 Before Market Open:
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    Monday 2.26.18 After Market Close:
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    Tuesday 2.27.18 Before Market Open:
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    Tuesday 2.27.18 After Market Close:
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    Wednesday 2.28.18 Before Market Open:
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    Wednesday 2.28.18 After Market Close:
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    Thursday 3.1.18 Before Market Open:
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    Thursday 3.1.18 After Market Close:
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    [​IMG]

    Friday 3.2.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 3.2.18 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
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  9. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market challenge threads for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    Our monthly stock pick contest and market poll for March is also coming up this week!-
    ========================================================================================================

    And finally, we have our mystery chart challenge now up as well!
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
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  10. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    And as promised here are the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead:
    ($SQ $JD $VRX $PCLN $FIT $JCP $M $CRM $LOW $PANW $LL $BBY $NTNX $WTW $ADI $FL $TOL $AMT $SN $SWN $EMES $AZO $IONS $VMW$EXEL $KSS $BCC $CLVS $CPRT $AMC $ALB $ACAD $TJX $DF $AWI $RRC $SPLK $FTR $ENDP $SRPT $CRK $PZZA $DDD $WDAY $BUD)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
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  11. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Here is a look at this week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar:

    [​IMG]
     
  12. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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  13. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Good Monday morning to everyone! Hope you all had a great weekend and are ready for a new week fresh start.

    The pre-market thread has been posted-
    [​IMG] <-- click there to read!

    Here's to a great trading week ahead to everyone in here this week!
     
  14. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Anybody think there could be a negative effect on Chinese stocks due to the government seizing Anbang insurance company, and the removal of term limits on their President?
     
  15. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Maybe in a longer run but right now the market doesn't seem to care about these issues too much, the Chinese stock markets did just fine yesterday
     
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  16. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    A lot of economic data this week and we get Powell tomorrow and Thursday. I don't really expect Powell to say anything too hawkish, but it will be interesting to see whether the market has already priced that in after the rally today and last Friday
     
  17. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    I'm wondering if Trump will say something to contradict Powell. I expect Powell to be dovish like Yellen; but Trump didn't seem to like how dovish Yellen was being. Of course he may have just been against Yellen because she wasn't his choice.
     
  18. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    Watching these rallies lately is like watching a Vegas casino.

    I love how algos are solely responsible for when we can trade in large ranges like this or when we can't. Don't get me wrong, I love me some upside ..... but this shit is ridiculous, as it was to the downside as well.
     
    #18 Rock Sexton, Feb 26, 2018
    Last edited: Feb 26, 2018
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  19. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    I was noticing that every Chinese stock I looked at closed red today, in spite of the market going well up. Seriously, I looked at a lot of Chinese stocks and couldn't find one green.
     
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  20. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Really? Were you looking at the Chinese stocks trading here in the US or the ones trading in China and Hong Kong? I might need to take a deeper look, I just saw that the Shanghai Composite and the Hang Seng Index did pretty well yesterday, but I didn't really look at the individual stocks trading there that much.
     
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