Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of January 1st! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday Markets closed for New Year's Day Tuesday 9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI Wednesday Monthly vehicle sales Earnings: Commercial Metals, UniFirst, Rite Aid 10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing 10:00 a.m. Construction spending 2:00 p.m. FOMC minutes Thursday Earnings: Walgreens Boots Alliance, Monsanto, RPM, PriceSmart 8:15 a.m. ADP employment 8:30 a.m. Jobless claims 9:45 a.m. Services PMI 1:30 p.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard Friday Earnings: Constellation Brands, Cal-Maine Foods 8:30 a.m. Employment report 8:30 a.m. International trade 10:00 a.m. ISM nonmanufacturing 10:00 a.m. Factory orders 10:15 a.m. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker 12:30 p.m. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester 12:30 p.m. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren
Record-Smashing 2017 Ends With Stock Slamfest - Bitcoin, Bonds, Bullion Best Ugly end... * * * But on the year, the dollar tanked (worst since 2003), stocks and bonds (the long-end) soared higher, commodities rebounded dramatically, cryptocurrencies exploded, and gold had its best year since 2010 as VIX saw its lowest average in history... and all that driven by the biggest increase in central bank balance sheets since 2011... anyone else feel like this... (our estimate is we are at around the 30 second mark currently) 2017... Now that was a year for stocks... The Dow is up 25% over 2017, putting it on track for its second straight annual increase, as well as its best year since 2013. The S&P is up 20% year-to-date. Like the Dow, it is set for its second straight annual increase and its best year since 2013. The Nasdaq is up 29% in 2017, its best year since 2013. 2017 is set to be the Nasdaq’s sixth straight annual gain. According to the WSJ Market Data Group, this is the longest streak for the Nasdaq since a six-year streak lasting from 1975 to 1980. The Russell has gained 13.6% in 2017. The index is set for its second straight annual gain. Additionally, The Nasdaq also has posted a record number of all-time high closes this year. Vols across every asset class collapsed to multi-year (if not record) lows... Treasuries were extremely mixed on the year with 2Y Yields soaring 67bps and the long-bond yields collapsing 34bps... The collapse in the yield curve (2s30s) is the biggest flattening since 2007... This is the flattest yield curve since Oct 2007... The Dollar was a bloodbath this year - the biggest loss for the greenback since 2003... All the major commodities ended higher on the year with copper's recent crazy rampage leading the way.. While all the headlines have proclaimed Bitcoin the big winner, its 1400% return in 2017 is dwarfed by the explosion in Ripple... In December... The Dow is up 2% in December. This will mark its ninth straight monthly rise, its longest such streak since 1959. The S&P is up 1% thus far this month. This will also be the S&P’s ninth positive month in a row, representing its best streak since 1983. On a total-return basis, however, the S&P is set for its 14th straight monthly gain, which will lengthen a record... and is the first "perfect year" of 12 straight months in one calendar year gains. The Nasdaq is up 0.5% in December, which will represent its sixth straight monthly increase. The tech-heavy index has risen in 13 of the past 14 months. The Russell is down 0.5% in December. breaking its longest winning streak since Feb Ugly close to the month... 30Y Yields were also lower in December overall as the rest of the curve was higher (10Y Unch)... The dollar dropped for the second straight month led by Aussie, Yuan, and Euro strength... As the dollar weakened following The Fed rate hike so commodities all started ramping higher in December... On the week... Santa failed to deliver this year (so far) with stocks ending a huuge year with whimper... tumbling into year-end with all major indices red on the week Nasdaq was smashed lower for the 5th day in a row... Bonds were very aggressively bid, and the yield curve flattened dramatically... Bond yields and the dollar tracked each other all week... The dollar fell for the 3rd straight week - the biggest weekly drop in almost 4 months... And cryptos surged with only Litecoin lower, despite the Korean headlines, as Ripple roared... Gold surged to $1310, near 3 month highs, this week but silver and crude led the way... * * * Finally, if there is one chart that sums up 2017, it is this... * * * Happy New Year to all... and remember, on Tuesday... It's...
Here were the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2017- S&P sectors for the past week-
Midterm January Performance Tepid January has quite a legendary reputation on Wall Street as an influx of cash from yearend bonuses and annual allocations typically propels stocks higher. January ranks #1 for NASDAQ (since 1971), but sixth on the S&P 500 and DJIA since 1950. It is the end of the best three-month span and possesses a full docket of indicators and seasonalities. In midterm years, January ranks near the bottom since 1950. Large-caps have been the worst with S&P 500 and Russell 1000 ranking #11 (second worst) and DJIA #10. Technology and small-cap shares fare slightly better in the rankings, but average performance is still negative. DJIA and S&P January rankings had slipped precipitously as the month has suffered some significant losses over the last 18 years. From 2000 to 2016 both indices declined 10 times; three in a row from 2008 to 2010 and again 2014 to 2016. January 2009 has the dubious honor of being the worst January on record for DJIA (-8.8%) and S&P 500 (-8.6%) since 1901 and 1931 respectively. The first indicator to register a reading in January is the Santa Claus Rally. The seven-trading day period begins on the open on December 22 and ends with the close of trading on January 3. Normally, the S&P 500 posts an average gain of 1.3%. The failure of stocks to rally during this time tends to precede bear markets or times when stocks could be purchased at lower prices later in the year. On January 8, our First Five Days “Early Warning” System will be in. In post-presidential election years this indicator has a solid record. In the last 17 midterm election years, just 8 full years followed the direction of the First Five Days. The full-month January Barometer has a midterm-election-year record of 10 of the last 17 full years following January’s direction. Our flagship indicator, the January Barometer created by Yale Hirsch in 1972, simply states that as the S&P goes in January so goes the year. It came into effect in 1934 after the Twentieth Amendment moved the date that new Congresses convene to the first week of January and Presidential inaugurations to January 20. January’s Volatile Swings January has a long-standing reputation as a source of solid, consistent market gains going back to 1950. However, since 2000 January has developed a dark, unpredictable side that has resulted in some rather nasty market declines in 10 of the last 18 years. It began in 2000 with a 5.1% S&P 500 loss as the tech bubble neared its demise. There was a see-saw battle of wins and losses until January was down three straight years from 2008 to 2010. S&P 500’s 8.6% January 2009 loss was the worst on record going back to 1930. Then from 2011 to 2013, the good January returned with three straight robust gains only to suffer three straight losses from 2014 to 2016. Recent January volatility has taken a toll on its long-term record. The slump in performance, across DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 can be easily seen when comparing the Recent 21-Year January Market Performance Chart to January Market Performance from 1950-2017. Over the long-term, all five major indexes average solid, positive returns in January, but over the recent 21-years, only NASDAQ retains a positive average. NASDAQ’s positive average is largely due to massive gains of 14.3% in January 1999 and 12.2% in 2001. Prior to this recent streak of volatile January trading, midterm-election years since 1950 were the main blemish on January’s otherwise stellar record. Best and Worst Performing S&P 500 Stocks in 2017 Dec 29, 2017 While the cap-weighted S&P 500 gained 19.42% on the year, the average stock in the index was up less than that at just over 18%. There were exactly 50 stocks in the S&P that gained more than 50% on the year, and there were only 3 that gained more than 100%. We were a bit surprised that only 3 stocks posted triple-digit returns given the year that markets had. We were even more surprised to see a Utilities stock at the top of the best performers list! That’s right — NRG Energy (NRG) was the top performing stock in the S&P 500 in 2017 with a gain of 132.3%. The other two triple-digit gainers were Align Tech (ALGN), and Vertex Pharma (VRTX). Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and Boeing (BA) rounded out the top five with gains of 94.88% and 89.43%, respectively. Other notables on the list of S&P 500 winners include NVIDIA (NVDA), Activision Blizzard (ATVI), Adobe (ADBE), Caterpillar (CAT), Best Buy (BBY), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), and Facebook (FB). All of these names gained more than 50% in 2017. It’s tough in any year to be on the loser’s list, but it’s even tougher in a year when the S&P gains as much as it did this year. Below is a list of the S&P 500 stocks that fell more than 20% in 2017. Range Resources (RRC) and Under Armour (UAA) top the list with declines of 50%+. General Electric (GE) is by far the most high-profile name on the list of losers with a huge drop of 44.78%. Other notable losers include Mattel (MAT), Macy’s (M), Baker Hughes (BHGE), Foot Locker (FL), TripAdvisor (TRIP), Chipotle (CMG), and Campbell Soup (CPB). 2017 Asset Class Total Return Performance Dec 29, 2017 Below are the final total return numbers in 2017 for various asset classes using our key ETF matrix. Use our Trend Analyzer tool to monitor our proprietary Trend and Timing ratings for each of the ETFs shown (plus every stock in the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq 100). While the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) was the worst performing asset class in the final week of the year, it finished 2017 with a total return of 32.66%. That’s the biggest gainer of the US index ETFs we track. The S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW) easily outperformed all other growth and value ETFs across large caps, mid caps, and small caps. From a sector perspective, Tech (XLK) gained the most in 2017 followed by Materials (XLB) and Industrials (XLI). Energy (XLE) and Telecom (IYZ) both finished the year in the red. Outside of the US, India (PIN), Hong Kong (EWH), and China (ASHR) were up the most in 2017, while Russia (RSX) was up the least. Emerging markets (EEM) had an excellent year with a gain of 37.28%. Natural gas (UNG), on the other hand, had a brutal year with a decline of 37.58%. Finally, fixed income ETFs all posted single-digit positive returns, with TLT gaining the most at +9.18%. Happy New Year and best of luck in 2018! Another Record for 2017 Posted by lplresearch As the year winds down, the S&P 500 Index is on pace to set a record we’ve never seen. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “Incredibly, 2017 could be the first year in history that the S&P 500 has gained every single month of the year on a total return basis.” Not to be outdone, this could be a record 14thconsecutive month of gains (on a total return basis), and an incredible 21 of the previous 22 months have been higher. There isn’t much more we can say about 2017 that we haven’t already said. It was a great year for equity bulls, but it also came with historically low volatility. Turning to 2018, we are looking for a continuation of the bull market led by a strong resurgence in global earnings, but we expect a big pickup in volatility as well.
Stock Market Analysis for Week Ending 12.29.17 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon ShadowTrader Video Weekly 12.31.17 Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the earnings chart posted in here as well once it's ready) ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 1.1.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. (MARKETS CLOSED FOR NEW YEAR'S DAY!) Monday 1.1.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. (MARKETS CLOSED FOR NEW YEAR'S DAY!) Tuesday 1.2.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Tuesday 1.2.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Wednesday 1.3.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 1.3.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 1.4.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 1.4.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 1.5.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 1.5.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
Stockaholics come join us on our stock market challenge threads as we kick off the brand speaking new year 2018!- ======================================================================================================== Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Tuesday (1/2) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote and stock pick! Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (1/2-1/5) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote and stock picks! Stockaholics January 2018 Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll <-- click there to cast your monthly market vote and stock picks! Stockaholics Q1 2018 Quarterly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll <-- click there to cast your quarterly market vote and stock picks! Stockaholics 2018 Yearly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll <-- click there to cast your yearly market vote and stock picks! SPX Poll: How Bullish or Bearish are you on the markets in 2018? <-- click there to cast your vote! Fed Poll: How many times do you think the FOMC will hike rates in 2018? <-- click there to cast your vote! 2018 Predictions & Stock Market Calls <-- click there to post your 2018 predictions and market calls! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate! I hope you all have a fantastic New Year's!
The SCR (Santa Claus Rally) has just concluded its 5th day, with just 2 trading days left to go! To track the SCR in real-time simply click on the button link below- Remember the SCR officially concludes at market close on Wednesday, January 3rd, 2018. Here is where we stand after Day #5 today:
And finally for those of you who need to know, the CME Globex futures will be closed all day on Monday for New Year's. Happy New Year to everyone on Stockaholics! I hope you all have a very safe, fun, and prosperous 2018!
And as promised here are the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming week ahead: ($RAD $WBA $STZ $MON $CMC $UNF $NEOG $RPM $LW $ANGO $SONC $CALM $GBX $RECN $LNDC $AEHR $PSMT $FC) Rite Aid Corp. $1.97 Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) is confirmed to report earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, January 3, 2018. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.02 per share on revenue of $7.74 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.02) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 200.00% with revenue decreasing by 4.32%. Short interest has increased by 30.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 38.9% below its 200 day moving average of $3.22. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, December 21, 2017 there was some notable buying of 13,906 contracts of the $2.00 call expiring on Friday, February 16, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 19.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.4% move in recent quarters. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc $72.62 Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (WBA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, January 4, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.27 per share on revenue of $30.33 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.30 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 15.45% with revenue increasing by 6.42%. Short interest has increased by 9.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.9% below its 200 day moving average of $77.98. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, December 14, 2017 there was some notable buying of 14,000 contracts of the $90.00 call and 14,000 contracts of the $90.00 put expiring on Friday, April 20, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 4.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters. Constellation Brands, Inc. $228.57 Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Friday, January 5, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.87 per share on revenue of $1.86 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.96 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 72% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 4.59% with revenue decreasing by 6.66%. Short interest has increased by 8.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.4% above its 200 day moving average of $194.70. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, December 29, 2017 there was some notable buying of 8,498 contracts of the $250.00 call expiring on Friday, January 19, 2018. The stock has averaged a 4.7% move on earnings in recent quarters. Monsanto Co. $116.78 Monsanto Co. (MON) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:10 AM ET on Thursday, January 4, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.42 per share on revenue of $2.72 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.49 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 61.54% with revenue increasing by 2.64%. Short interest has increased by 60.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.2% below its 200 day moving average of $116.96. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, December 18, 2017 there was some notable buying of 43,622 contracts of the $110.00 put expiring on Friday, April 20, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 3.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 0.9% move in recent quarters. Commercial Metals Company $21.32 Commercial Metals Company (CMC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Wednesday, January 3, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.19 per share on revenue of $1.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.22 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 90.00% with revenue increasing by 8.83%. Short interest has decreased by 9.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.4% above its 200 day moving average of $19.31. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 4.7% move on earnings in recent quarters. UniFirst Corporation $164.90 UniFirst Corporation (UNF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Wednesday, January 3, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.41 per share on revenue of $406.50 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.45 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 2.17% with revenue increasing by 5.28%. Short interest has decreased by 21.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.4% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Neogen Corp. $82.21 Neogen Corp. (NEOG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:45 AM ET on Wednesday, January 3, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.35 per share on revenue of $101.86 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.35 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 79% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 20.69% with revenue increasing by 12.28%. Short interest has increased by 1.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.7% above its 200 day moving average of $70.45. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.9% move on earnings in recent quarters. RPM International Inc. $52.42 RPM International Inc. (RPM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, January 4, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.60 per share on revenue of $1.25 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.62 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 15.38% with revenue increasing by 4.97%. Short interest has decreased by 1.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 3.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.5% below its 200 day moving average of $52.69. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 4.5% move on earnings in recent quarters. Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. $56.45 Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Thursday, January 4, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.53 per share on revenue of $814.45 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 15.87% with revenue increasing by 3.00%. Short interest has increased by 201.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.9% above its 200 day moving average of $46.68. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 2.1% move on earnings in recent quarters. AngioDynamics $16.63 AngioDynamics (ANGO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Thursday, January 4, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.17 per share on revenue of $87.80 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.17 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 52% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 10.53% with revenue decreasing by 1.38%. Short interest has increased by 32.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.1% below its 200 day moving average of $16.65. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 6.1% move on earnings in recent quarters.
welcome to 2018! it's always nice to be starting out on fresh clean slate. hope everyone has a kick a$$ trading year. anything noteworthy to be watching for this week?
whoo! the very first trading day of the new year is here at last! i'm pretty wired being up at 2:30am eastern
good morning stockaholics! happy first trading day of 2018! it's been a pretty long time since i've done up one of these. here is this morning's pre-market movers & news- <-- click there to read! hope everyone has an amazing first trading day, week, month, and year in 2018!
this should bode well for those thinking that we'll see another double digit % gain in the SPX this year. in the past 20 years, the 1st trading day of a new year on the SPX has been up 10 times and down 10 times. on the days that it was up the avg. full year return was +14.20%. on the days that it was down, the avg. full year return was down -0.60%. yes, sample size is small but still thought that was interesting. in addition, the SCR (santa claus rally) which has 1 more day left (tomorrow) is back in the green again. plus, we have something called an FFD (first five days) which is a popular early indicator, as well as the JB (january barometer) which is the full month for jan. so far looking good.
nice little eod pop here ... new ATHs for all the majors to open the new year not too shabby ... looks like nasdaq will see its first close above 7k
