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Stock Market Today: January 21st - 25th, 2019

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Jan 19, 2019.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of January 21st!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]


    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]


    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]


    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Markets closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: Johnson and Johnson, Travelers, IBM, Capital One, Stanley Black and Decker, UBS, Fifth Third, Halliburton, TD Ameritrade, Steel Dynamics

    8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed survey

    10:00 a.m. Existing home sales

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Abbott Labs, Comcast, Procter and Gamble, United Technologies, Northern Trust, Kimberly-Clark, Ford, Las Vegas Sands, F5 Networks, Raymond James, Texas Instruments, Varian Medical, Citrix, BancorpSouth

    • Thursday

    Earnings: Intel, Starbucks, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Union Pacific, Freeport-McMoRan, Intuitive Surgical, JetBlue, Southwest Air, Textron, ETrade, Discover Financial, Alaska Air, Western Digital, Norfolk Southern

    8:30 a.m. Jobless claims

    9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI

    9:45 a.m. Services PMI

    • Friday

    Earnings: Colgate-Palmolive, Synchrony Financial, NextEra Energy, Air Products, Vodafone, DR Horton, Lear, LM Ericsson, Iberiabank
     
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Small Caps Soar To Best Start Since 1987 As China Adds Record Liquidity
    Wondering why stocks are soaring?

    Simple really - Global Central Bank balance sheets are soaring again...

    [​IMG]

    And China just injected a record 1.16 trillion yuan into the financial system... (yea trillion with a 't')

    [​IMG]


    Sigh...





    Which lifted Chinese stocks handily...

    [​IMG]

    And European stocks soared...

    [​IMG]


    It seems the algos did not get the message the first time as Trade headlines pumped and dumped... and then they ripped...

    [​IMG]



    Trannies are best this week...

    [​IMG]



    Trannies are also the best performer of the US majors YTD, but the Russell 2000 is off to its best start to a year since 1987...

    [​IMG]



    But Canada is better - up 7% YTD - the best start since 1980...

    [​IMG]



    The S&P is up 4 weeks in a row - just like it was to start 2018...

    [​IMG]





    "Most Shorted" stocks continue to squeeze higher (up 14% YTD!)

    [​IMG]

    "Most Shorted" Stocks are up (squeezed) 13 of the last 14 days

    [​IMG]

    But, as Bloomberg noted, bearishness remains stubbornly high, judging by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF. At 5.4% as of a couple of days ago, short interest is roughly double the two-year average (with most of that span of time covering a steady grind higher).

    [​IMG]

    "Bird Box Buying"

    [​IMG]

    Fannie and Freddie exploded higher on headlines that Treasury is considering how to exit conservatorship...

    [​IMG]



    Tesla tumbled - catching down tot its bonds reality once again...

    [​IMG]

    This was one of its biggest drops in history...

    [​IMG]



    Credit Spreads collapsed again after decoupling initially from VIX...

    [​IMG]



    Treasury yields surged across the curve this week with the belly underperforming (7Y +10bps)...

    [​IMG]



    with 10Y yield at 2019 highs...





    And investors should perhaps be careful what they wish for from stocks as the markets' implied expectations for 2019 rate hikes has shifted back into hawk territory - now expecting 3.5bps of tightening...

    [​IMG]



    The dollar surged this week - its first weekly gain in 5 weeks - bouncing off significant support at around 1180...

    [​IMG]



    Yuan tumbled on the week - biggest weekly drop in 3 months (accelerating as the dollar surged this afternoon on trade talks headlines)

    [​IMG]



    Cryptos were down across the board in a very choppy week...

    [​IMG]



    Despite dollar strength crude and copper surged on the week with PMs weak...

    [​IMG]



    WTI neared $45 but faces serious resistance...

    [​IMG]



    Silver's demise at the same time as Oil's surging seems to have found historical support working again...

    [​IMG]





    Finally, US equity markets are right back where they were at the end of the year... the year 2017!

    [​IMG]

    And with a big h/t top Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg, we note that "More How fascinating to have seen on the same day a ripping production report on the back of the auto sector coinciding with consumer auto buying intentions falling to a five-year low."

    [​IMG]

    So if you bought the market today on the heels of great industrial production data - don't hold your breath.

    Spot The Odd One Out...

    [​IMG]
     
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2019-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    The Bespoke Report — Call It A Comeback
    Jan 18, 2019

    2019 continues to track the complete opposite of what we saw in Q4 2018, with the hardest hit areas during Q4 bouncing the most off of their lows this year. Smallcaps are leading the way with gains of nearly 10% on the year, while Energy (XLE) leads all sectors at +11.32% on the back of oil’s (USO) 17% surge. Brazil (EWZ) leads all countries in our ETF matrix with a YTD gain of 13%, which is a rare continuation of what we saw for Brazil to end 2018. Canada (EWC) is also posting a solid showing in 2019 with a double-digit percentage gain already. The only areas of weakness are India (PIN), precious metals, and Treasuries.

    [​IMG]

    High Yield Spreads: When Crashing is a Good Thing
    Jan 18, 2019

    After screaming higher towards the end of 2018 right up through the first couple of days of 2019, high yield spreads have come crashing back down to earth in the last two weeks, falling from a high of 544 basis points (bps) on 1/3 to 440 bps through Thursday. At their highs two weeks ago, spreads were the widest they have been since the Summer of 2016 and the highest while moving higher since the middle of 2015 when oil prices were crashing.

    In the lower chart, we show the 10-day rate of change of high yield spreads over time. At their peak back on 1/3, spreads had seen the largest 10-day move wider since early 2018 (98 bps). Ten trading days later, we are now looking at the largest narrowing move in spreads since July 2016. Unlike the current period, the narrowing of spreads in July 2016 did not immediately follow a 10-day move where spreads widened significantly. To find a period where this large of a move immediately followed a ten-day period where investors couldn’t exit high yield fast enough (wider spreads), you have to go back to that period in February 2016 that was marked by the ‘Dimon Bottom.” Now, if only the market follows a similar path moving forward!

    [​IMG]

    S&P 500 Industry Group Breadth Still Weak
    Jan 16, 2019

    Even with the S&P 500 up over 11% from its Christmas Eve lows just three weeks ago, it’s hard to believe that we’re still below the 50-DMA. That just goes to show you how steep the magnitude of the decline was leading up to this rally.

    [​IMG]

    Not only is the S&P 500 still below its 50-DMA, but the majority of Industry Groups are still below their 50-DMAs as well. In fact, barely a third of them (9) finished the day yesterday above that level. While that’s significantly better than the 0% level it was at recently, this low reading confirms the fact that most sectors of the market still haven’t even recovered December’s losses, let alone the losses from the September highs.

    [​IMG]

    Looking on the positive side, while overall Industry Group breadth remains weak, many of them are right on the cusp of peeking above their 50-DMAs. As shown in the table below, five of them are currently within half of one percent of their 50-DMAs, which means just one more day like yesterday would likely put them over the top. Even the Banks group, which is more than 1% below its 50-DMA, could move above that level today following strong reports from Goldman Sachs (GS) and Bank of America (BAC). Way down the list, the four Industry Groups that are unlikely to trade above their 50-DMAs anytime soon are Tech Hardware (-8.2%), Food, Beverage & Tobacco (-5.1%), Transportation (-3.1%), and Utilities (-2.6%).

    While most Industry Groups have yet to take out their 50-DMAs, the vast majority of them are trading in the black YTD. The only two that are in the red for the year are Tech Hardware (-0.9%) and Utilities (-0.4%). Leading the way higher so far this year (it’s still early) are Autos (+12.4%), Energy (8.2%), Consumer Durables (7.2%), and Banks (7.0%), which are all up over 7% on the year.


    [​IMG]

    The Best and Worst Performing S&P 500 Stocks So Far in 2019
    Jan 15, 2019

    Below we take a look at the best and worst performing S&P 500 stocks since we turned the corner into the new year. The top stock in the S&P 500 so far YTD is the healthcare play Celgene (CELG). At today’s close, the company finished up an astounding 37.67% year to date. Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) and Netflix (NFLX) are not far behind up 35.44% and 32.5%, respectively.

    While Health Care and Communication Services stocks make up the top three, the Energy sector is actually the most represented on the list with 11 out of 30 names. Whereas Tech was the poster child for gains for most of last year, there is only a single Technology stock in the top 30, and it’s probably the last one you’d guess — Xerox (XRX).

    [​IMG]

    Taking a look at the other end of the spectrum, with bankruptcy talks dominating the focus of the stock, PG&E (PCG) has fallen 70.91% in just 15 days. Macy’s ranks 2nd with a decline of 16.12%, while Newmont Mining (NEM) ranks 3rd at -10.48%. These are the only three stocks in the index down more than 10% on the year.

    The worst performers have a much larger variation on a sector basis. Health Care, which was another outperformer of 2018, is the only standout with 8 companies represented in the worst 30. The only sectors without a stock making this list are Real Estate, Communication Services, and Energy.

    [​IMG]

    Typical Pre-Election Year January Trading: Up, Up & Away
    [​IMG]
    In pre-election years, Januarys have been downright stellar ranking #1 for S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 and #2 for DJIA since 1950. Thus far, this January has been adhering to this historical tendency rather well. As of yesterday’s close, Russell 2000 was leading the charge, up nearly 7.2%. NASDAQ was in second place with a gain of 5.9% while DJIA was at the back of the pack at 3.2%.

    Looking at the chart below, comparing past historical average pre-election year January performance with 2019 as of the close on the eleventh trading day (January 15), you can see all five indexes are have produced above average gains throughout most of the month already. You can also see that, on average, the trend from now until the end of the month has been quite positive which suggests further gains are possible.
    [​IMG]
    The TED Spread’s Economic Signal
    Posted by lplresearch

    Credit stress among banks has remained relatively calm recently, signaling an economic recession may not be as imminent as some investors fear.


    As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the TED spread, or the difference between the 3-month London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) and the 3-month Treasury yield, climbed above 1% in the 12 months before each of the last three recessions, a level that hasn’t been breached in the current cycle.

    [​IMG]

    The TED spread has climbed as high as 0.61% during this cycle, a level it reached in March 2018, and closed at 0.38% on January 11, 2019.

    Libor is often used to gauge interbank lending fears since it represents rates that banks charge each other for short-term loans. If Libor climbs at a faster pace than U.S. government yields, it shows that banks are requiring more yield for these loans, implying more risk in the global financial system. The TED spread gained notoriety during the 2008 financial crisis when it rose as high as 1.99% in the fourth quarter of 2007, the quarter before the U.S. economy started contracting.

    To us, the relative quiet in banking credit is a testament to moderating, but solid global demand supported by strong U.S. economic trends. Investors have endured several headwinds recently, including a prolonged U.S.-China trade dispute, geopolitical issues, and signs of slowing international demand. Still, we feel encouraged by U.S. economic data, and we attribute most of the weakness in global data to ongoing trade tensions.

    “Even though the global environment has become more tenuous, companies’ balance sheets remain strong,” said LPL Research Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “We do not anticipate a recession in 2019, thanks to solid economic momentum and significant fiscal tailwinds.”

    As mentioned in our Outlook 2019: FUNDAMENTAL: How to Focus on What Really Matters in the Markets, we forecast global gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.7% and U.S. GDP growth of 2.5–2.75% in 2019. Although we are late in the cycle, this period can last for a long time, and we have yet to see the excesses or “red flags” (like a blowout in the TED spread) that have historically signaled economic peaks.
     
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for January 18th, 2019
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 1.20.19
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
    (VIDEO NOT YET UP!)
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 1.18.19-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the weekly earnings calendar posted in here as well once it's out)

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 1.21.19 Before Market Open:
    NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF MARTIN LUTHER KING JR. DAY)

    Monday 1.21.19 After Market Close:
    NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF MARTIN LUTHER KING JR. DAY)

    Tuesday 1.22.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 1.22.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 1.23.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 1.23.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 1.24.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 1.24.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 1.25.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 1.25.19 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-

    [​IMG]
     
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    And as promised here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($JNJ $IBM $HAL $INTC $F $AAL $PG $STLD $ATI $SWK $SBUX $ABT $TRV $PGR $PLD $UTX $FITB $LUV $BMY $CMCSA $UBSH $ABBV$LRCX $ISRG $KMB $MBWM $URI $EDU $AMTD $JBLU $FCX $WDC $GATX $FBC $ONB $PEBO $XLNX $FNB $OFG $UBS $MKC $ASML $UNP)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here is the CME Globex futures holiday schedule for the upcoming MLK Day holiday on Monday-

    [​IMG]
     
  13. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 1.20.19 - Melt up!
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
  14. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  15. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Good Tuesday to all.

    Here is this morning's pre-market thread for those of you wanting to get a quick market read before today's open-
    [​IMG] <-- click there to read!

    Hope everyone a great trading day and week ahead!
     
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  16. Steven_Burt

    Steven_Burt Well-Known Member

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    That was a quick flush when we broke that 12/26 trend line.
    tl.png
     
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  17. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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  18. Steven_Burt

    Steven_Burt Well-Known Member

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    Below 2622 I have 2585 next real support.
     
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  19. Steven_Burt

    Steven_Burt Well-Known Member

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    Kudlow saying China talks not cancelled on CNBC - 13 pt spike in one 5m candle lol
     
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  20. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Now it is back down :eek: Nowadays really don't know if we can trust the news reported by the media lol
     
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