Stock Market Today: January 22nd - 26th, 2018

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by Stockaholic, Jan 19, 2018.

  1. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of January 22nd!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]


    Major Indices End of Week:
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    Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday:
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    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
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    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
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    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Earnings: Netflix, TD Ameritrade, UBS, Halliburton, Zions Bancorp, Wintrust Financial, Steel Dynamics

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, Travelers, Fifth Third, Kimberly-Clark, State Street, United Continental, Capital One, Canadian National Railway, Huntington Bancshares, Total Systems

    8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing

    1:00 p.m. 2-year note auction

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Ford, Abbott Labs, Comcast, General Electric, Novartis, General Dynamics, Illinois Tool Works, Baker Hughes, United Technologies, Ameriprise, Raymond James, F5 Networks, Northern Trust, Stanley Black & Decker, Discover Financial, Ethan Allen, Legg Mason

    9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices

    9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI

    9:45 a.m. Services PMI

    10:00 a.m. Existing home sales

    1:00 p.m. 5-year note

    • Thursday

    Earnings: 3M, Caterpillar, Celgene, LVMH, Biogen, Union Pacific,Starbucks, Intel, Northrop Grumman, American Airlines, Freeport-McMoRan, Alaska Air, Fiat Chrysler, Raytheon, Southwest Air, Sherwin-Williams, JetBlue, Celanese, Intuitive Surgical, Diageo, Western Digital,KLA-Tencor

    8:30 a.m. Initial claims

    8:30 a.m. Advance economic indicators

    10:00 a.m. New home sales

    1:00 p.m. 7-year note auction

    • Friday

    Earnings: Honeywell, Colgate-Palmolive, AbbVie, NextEra Energy, Air Products, Lear, Rockwell Collins, Gentex, PolyOne

    8:30 a.m. Durable goods

    8:30 a.m. Real GDP Q4
     
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  2. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Shutdown, Schmutdown: Stocks Soar To Record Highs As Bonds Bloodbath, Crypto Crashes

    Markets had a brief moment of reflection on Tuesday...

    [​IMG]

    But that was rapidly shrugged off as a fleshwound...



    This was a historic week for the S&P 500 - This most recent rally has now surpassed the 1959 highs and is the most overbought the index has ever been... ever...

    [​IMG]

    For context that is a 133% annualized return for SPX thus far in Jan implies 6220 year-end index level.



    Small Caps were today's big winner...

    [​IMG]



    Small Caps were helped by yet another big short squeeze...

    [​IMG]

    Banks had a big week (MS notably outperforming GS)...

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    Perhaps most notably, for the second week in a row, S&P and VIX were higher together... the first time since Nov 2013.

    [​IMG]

    The notable decoupling between VIX and S&P has been ongoing all year...

    [​IMG]

    And we suspect is more aggressive call-buying bidding up vol than protection.

    High yield bonds broke below their key moving averages again this week, notably underperforming equities...

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    Treasuries were mullered - with the belly underperforming...

    [​IMG]

    as 10Y spiked above it recent highs to the highest yield since Sept 2014...

    [​IMG]



    The Dollar Index fell for the 6th straight week...

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    Despite the considerable comeback, Crypto ended the week down hard...approximately 20% lower from Friday's close for each of Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum, and Ripple...

    [​IMG]

    This was Bitcoin's 2nd worst week in 3 years and worst 2-week drop since 2011...

    [​IMG]



    Gold has been notably outperforming Bitcoin in the last two weeks...

    [​IMG]



    But all major commodities ended the week lower (despite a weak dollar)...

    [​IMG]
     
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  3. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2018-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
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  4. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Earnings Season Off to an Okay Start
    Jan 19, 2018

    Even though we’re now a couple weeks into earnings season, just 78 companies have released their quarterly numbers since January 8th. Using our Earnings Screener (available to Bespoke Institutional members), we’re able to quickly see how stocks are performing in reaction to their earnings reports over any time period. Since January 8th, the 78 stocks that have reported have averaged a one-day change of 0.19% on their earnings reaction days. That’s pretty solid. Going back to 2001, the average stock that has reported has gained 0.09% on its earnings reaction day, so this season has been better than average so far.

    [​IMG]

    While volatility measures have picked up slightly over the last couple of weeks, stocks that have reported earnings have actually been less volatile than normal. The 78 stocks that have reported since January 8th have averaged a one-day move of +/-3.57% on their earnings reaction days. Since 2001, the average stock that has reported has moved +/-5.63%.

    While the numbers so far have been stable, we’ll really see how things shake out beginning next week when a few hundred more companies release earnings.

    [​IMG]
    B.I.G. Tips – One Way Markets
    Jan 17, 2018

    Looking back on the last six months of the S&P 500’s performance, it’s hard to overstate just how remarkable of a run it has been. There have definitely been periods where the S&P 500 rallied more (and many cases a lot more), but the nearly complete lack of downside pressure has been extraordinary. Just look at the chart below. There have only been two periods where the S&P 500 saw more than a 1% drawdown on a closing basis from a closing high, and the largest drawdown was just 2.2%!

    [​IMG]

    There’s hardly been any downside pressure at all. In the chart below we calculated the cumulative amount of downside pressure in the S&P 500 on a rolling six-month basis going back to 1928. To do this, we simply added up the magnitude of the daily declines (measured in basis points where every 100 bps equals 1 percentage point) in the S&P 500 over a six-month rolling window. Heading into today, the cumulative impact of all the S&P 500’s down days over the last six months was a total of 1,230 bps.

    How does that stack up relative to other periods? Let’s put it this way; since 1928, there have only been three other periods, which all spanned from 1964 through 1966, where the cumulative impact of down days over a six month period was less than the last six months. The most extreme of these periods was in May 1964, when the cumulative six-month downside impact was less than 1,000 bps. We often hear from people who are amazed at how sanguine the market can be in the midst of all the headlines surrounding Washington and the state of geopolitical affairs, but in the 1960s, the US saw more than a little bit of geopolitical and political turmoil as well! And just like today, in the 60s we saw long periods where the market did nothing but go up. This is a reason we always note that politics and investing don’t mix!

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    DJIA Surpasses Average Midterm Full-Year Performance on Ninth Trading Day of 2018
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    As of today’s close, the tenth trading day of January, DJIA is up 4.34% year-to-date and S&P 500 is up 3.85%. Since 1902, DJIA’s average full-year performance in midterm years is 4.1%. S&P 500 is slightly stronger since 1930, gaining 4.8%. Midterm years that were also the second years of newly elected presidents averaged DJIA +1.1% and S&P 500 –0.4%. New Republican presidents were fractionally better with DJIA gaining 2.2% in newly elected Republican president second years while S&P 500 climbed just 0.3%.
    [​IMG]
    VIX “Spiking” to 12-13 is not a reason to dump stocks
    [​IMG]
    Recent market gains have been accompanied by a “spike” in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). In percentage terms, the increase in VIX would appear to be quite significant, but in absolute terms and within the context of history (even recent six month history), there likely is little cause for concern. For starters, VIX was near all-time lows on January 4 with an intra-day low of 8.92. VIX’s all-time intra-day low was 8.56 on November 24, 2017. So based upon VIX the market was rather dull. This dull assessment can be confirmed by the narrow daily trading range observed on numerous occasions throughout 2017. Now that the market has awoken and daily moves have approached 1%, VIX has picked up.

    Then there is the VIX’s nickname, the “fear” index. It gets its nickname from the fact that it tends to rise when the market is in decline. However, the VIX is actually quoted in percentage terms and represents the expected range of the S&P 500 over the next year at a 68% confidence level. VIX is directionless. A reading of 12 today means a range of plus/minus 12%. Because panic selling is far more common than panic buying, elevated levels of VIX are far more common during declines hence the nickname “fear” index. Let’s not overlook the possibility that 12% over the next 12 months is also in play now.

    Lastly, VIX has a historical tendency to move higher in January. In the following chart weekly open, high, low, close values of VIX are plotted in the upper portion and VIX’s seasonal trend (using data since 1990) is plotted in the lower section. Beginning in January, VIX does tend to climb higher and peak around mid-February. From there VIX then resumes course lower until mid-July and the start of the frequently low-volume summer doldrums. At which time VIX begins moves steadily higher into mid-October around the same time that the stock market posts a seasonally low and the typical yearend stock rally begins pushing VIX lower once again.
    [​IMG]
    Absent confirmation from other technical and fundamental data sources, the recent rise in VIX from near historic lows to the 12-13 range is not as significant as some headlines may suggest. Economic data is firm and trending in a positive direction and daily Advance/Decline lines are also bullish further lending support to continued stock market gains in the near-term.
    [​IMG]
     
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  5. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Stock Market Analysis for Week Ending 1.19.18
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 1.21.18 - And that's the way it is...

    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
  6. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Here are the current indices pullback/correction levels (for if, IF this market ever decides to pullback...) as of this week ending-
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    ...and here are the rally levels for if this market continues to rocket up to new highs as of this week ending-
    [​IMG]
     
  7. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the earnings chart posted in here as well once it's ready)

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 1.22.18 Before Market Open:
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    Monday 1.22.18 After Market Close:
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    Tuesday 1.23.18 Before Market Open:
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    Tuesday 1.23.18 After Market Close:
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    Wednesday 1.24.18 Before Market Open:
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    Wednesday 1.24.18 After Market Close:
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    Thursday 1.25.18 Before Market Open:
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    Thursday 1.25.18 After Market Close:
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    Friday 1.26.18 Before Market Open:
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    Friday 1.26.18 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
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  8. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market challenge threads for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
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    And finally we have a couple of price polls up and running for you guys to vote on as well!-

    These will all be expiring very soon so please try to cast those votes ASAP!
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  9. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    [​IMG]

    Looks like a shutdown may be imminent here, but history says it is largely a non-event for the markets.

    [​IMG]
     
  10. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    And as promised here are the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead:
    ($NFLX $GE $HAL $INTC $CAT $LRCX $JNJ $CELG $VZ $F $CLF $PG $STM $ISRG $ABT $PETS $FCX $WDC $AAL $MMM $TXN $UAL $RTN $BIIB $LUV $CMCSA $KMB $ALK $UTX $CBU $SBUX $BOH $AMTD $JBL $WYNN $URI $BMRC $HON $SWK $ITW $PGR $OPB $STT $TRV)
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Netflix, Inc. $220.46
    [​IMG]Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, January 22, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.41 per share on revenue of $3.28 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.43 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $0.41 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 173.33% with revenue increasing by 32.39%. Short interest has decreased by 17.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.5% above its 200 day moving average of $175.65. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, January 18, 2018 there was some notable buying of 6,942 contracts of the $225.00 call and 6,703 contracts of the $225.00 put expiring on Friday, March 16, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 7.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.0% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    General Electric Co. $16.26
    [​IMG]General Electric Co. (GE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, January 24, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.28 per share on revenue of $32.69 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.28 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 31% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 39.13% with revenue decreasing by 1.20%. Short interest has decreased by 10.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 26.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 32.7% below its 200 day moving average of $24.15. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, January 19, 2018 there was some notable buying of 42,032 contracts of the $18.00 call expiring on Friday, June 15, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 5.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.8% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Halliburton Co $53.01
    [​IMG]Halliburton Co (HAL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Monday, January 22, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.46 per share on revenue of $5.57 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.48 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 1,050.00% with revenue increasing by 38.52%. Short interest has decreased by 18.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 24.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.2% above its 200 day moving average of $46.42. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, January 8, 2018 there was some notable buying of 10,621 contracts of the $55.00 call expiring on Friday, March 16, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 3.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.7% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Intel Corp. $44.82
    [​IMG]Intel Corp. (INTC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Thursday, January 25, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.86 per share on revenue of $16.30 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.89 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.81 to $0.91 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.86% with revenue decreasing by 0.45%. Short interest has increased by 0.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.8% above its 200 day moving average of $38.70. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, January 12, 2018 there was some notable buying of 61,707 contracts of the $40.00 put expiring on Friday, April 20, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.8% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Caterpillar, Inc. $170.41
    [​IMG]Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Thursday, January 25, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.77 per share on revenue of $11.97 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.88 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 79% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 113.25% with revenue increasing by 25.03%. Short interest has decreased by 22.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 21.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 40.0% above its 200 day moving average of $121.73. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, January 16, 2018 there was some notable buying of 4,083 contracts of the $170.00 put expiring on Friday, February 16, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 4.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.4% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Lam Research Corp. $207.53
    [​IMG]Lam Research Corp. (LRCX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, January 24, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.67 per share on revenue of $2.56 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.73 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $3.53 to $3.77 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 63.84% with revenue increasing by 36.00%. Short interest has increased by 7.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.2% above its 200 day moving average of $169.79. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, January 18, 2018 there was some notable buying of 3,761 contracts of the $210.00 call and 3,527 contracts of the $210.00 put expiring on Friday, March 16, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 5.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.0% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Johnson & Johnson $147.36
    [​IMG]Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:40 AM ET on Tuesday, January 23, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.72 per share on revenue of $20.22 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.76 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.86% with revenue increasing by 11.68%. Short interest has increased by 16.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.5% above its 200 day moving average of $133.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, January 18, 2018 there was some notable buying of 8,105 contracts of the $150.00 call and 7,036 contracts of the $150.00 put expiring on Friday, February 16, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 2.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.4% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Celgene Corp. $102.65
    [​IMG]Celgene Corp. (CELG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Thursday, January 25, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.92 per share on revenue of $3.51 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.02 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 22.29% with revenue increasing by 17.77%. Short interest has increased by 33.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.9% below its 200 day moving average of $122.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, January 5, 2018 there was some notable buying of 3,783 contracts of the $120.00 call expiring on Friday, February 16, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 5.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.2% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Verizon Communications $51.91
    [​IMG]Verizon Communications (VZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Tuesday, January 23, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.88 per share on revenue of $33.21 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.88 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 2.33% with revenue increasing by 2.69%. Short interest has decreased by 14.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.2% above its 200 day moving average of $47.96. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, January 4, 2018 there was some notable buying of 14,611 contracts of the $52.50 call expiring on Friday, April 20, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 3.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Ford Motor Company $12.00
    [​IMG]Ford Motor Company (F) is confirmed to report earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, January 24, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.44 per share on revenue of $37.15 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.41 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 54% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 46.67% with revenue increasing by 3.19%. Short interest has increased by 2.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.5% above its 200 day moving average of $11.82. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, January 9, 2018 there was some notable buying of 18,322 contracts of the $13.50 call expiring on Friday, February 2, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 4.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.9% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]
     
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  11. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Here is this week's global economic & policy calendar:
    [​IMG]
     
  12. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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  13. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Good Monday morning to all.

    The pre-market thread has been posted-

    [​IMG] <-- click there to read!

    Hope everyone has a great trading week in here!
     
  14. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Shutdown, Schmutdown. New ATHs for the market this AM. :p
     
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  15. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    yeah wtf?...lol...I thought I was making decent money at 25% profit on SPX options this morning...sold way too early....double now
     
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  16. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    and....HOD again...
     
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  17. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    [​IMG]

     
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  18. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    This market just continue to go higher :eek: At this point I guess a rapid rise in interest rates would be the most likely thing to stop this bull run :p
     
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  19. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Energy having a great day, XLE up 1.8%
     
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  20. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    It's really amazing when ya think about. I mean we've been one time framing (meaning we haven't violated the prior months low) on the monthly SPX chart for 15 months in a row now! Never seen anything like that myself.

    The current monthly bar is really starting to get a bit stretch on the upside to say the least, and we're way over the channel resistance at this point. However, there is still no excess on the highs here which typically does not mark the end of the move.

    I keep thinking we need to rest/pause until the next move, but yet it keeps ripping higher. :p

    It's still very much a BTFD BTFATH market. :D
     
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