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Stock Market Today: January 28th - February 1st, 2019

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Jan 25, 2019.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of January 28th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]


    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]


    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]


    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Earnings: Caterpillar, Whirlpool, AK Steel, Crane, Ethan Allen, Graco, Brown and Brown, Reinsurance Group of America, Celanese

    • Tuesday

    FOMC meeting begins

    Earnings: Apple, Verizon, 3M, Harley-Davidson, Amgen, Pfizer, Lockheed Martin, PulteGroup, LVMH, United Micro, Danaher, Corning, SAP, Stryker, eBay, Stryker, Advanced Micro Devices,KLA-Tencor, Xerox

    9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices

    10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence 10:00 a.m. Housing vacancies

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Microsoft, Facebook, AT&T, Boeing, McDonald's, Anthem, Novartis, Qualcomm, Alibaba, PayPal, Wynn Resorts, Ameriprise, U.S. Steel, Cirrus Logic, Gentex, General Dynamics, Hess, Nasdaq OMX, T. Rowe Price, Invesco, Siemens, Avery Dennison, Check Point Software

    8:15 a.m. ADP payrolls

    10:00 a.m. Pending home sales 2:00 p.m. Federal Reserve statement

    2:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell briefs media

    • Thursday

    Earnings: Amazon, Blackstone, Mastercard, Raytheon, General Electric, Baker Hughes, Diageo, Altria, Unilever, Marsh and McLennan, Hershey, International Paper, Eaton, Sprint, AmerisourceBergen, Fortune Brands, Conoco Phillips, DowDupont,Celgene, Aflac, Northrop Grumman, Valero Energy, Xcel Energy, Sherwin-Williams, Tractor Supply, Symantec, Cypress Semiconductor

    8:30 a.m. Jobless claims

    8:30 a.m. Employment cost index Q4

    9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI

    • Friday

    Vehicle sales

    Earnings: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Merck, Cigna, Aon, Deutsche Bank, Sony, Honda Motor, Illinois Tool Works, Johnson Controls, Weyerhaueser, KKR, Booz Allen Hamilton, Madison Square Garden, LyondellBasell, Roper Industries

    8:30 a.m. Employment report

    9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM manufacturing 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment

    *Advance economic indicators, Q4 GDP, Personal income/spending, construction spending are among the reports delayed by government shutdown

    * This list reflects just some of the companies reporting earnings in the week ahead.
     
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Gold Jumps, Dollar Dumps As Trump Folds, Fed Holds
    China Manufacturing, European Economy, and US Hope all plunging further... so buy stocks right? Bad global news is great stocks news?

    [​IMG]

    And then there's this...

    [​IMG]


    So what is lifting stocks? Well that's easy...

    [​IMG]

    How to trade it? Simple, don't...



    China let slip quasi QE but the early gains were erased into the close...


    [​IMG]



    German business sentiment tumbled but EU stocks managed strong gains...except UK's FTSE...

    [​IMG]



    Led by European banks soaring today after dumping on ECB comments (and no, nothing changed)...

    [​IMG]



    US equity futures surged overnight after Quasi QE from China and a WSJ headline on the end of QT. However, having tagged the week's highs, stocks dipped on headlines of a shutdown deal (remember, End of Shutdown is negative for stocks as it means the economy won’t crash in Q1, meaning a lower probability that The Fed stops QT), but ended higher on the day and week...

    The S&P ended red on the week (breaking its 4-week win streak) but Nasdaq and The Dow managed to hold tiny gains on the week...

    [​IMG]



    Another major short-squeeze dragged markets higher after Tuesday's tumble...

    [​IMG]



    Credit and equity protection compressed notably on the day and week...

    [​IMG]



    Treasuries were sold today, erasing yesterday's gains but ending the week lower in yield still...

    [​IMG]



    Bond yields still have room to fall if equity cyclicals are right...

    [​IMG]



    The dollar puked today after WSJ reports a QT slowdown - this is the biggest drop since early November...

    [​IMG]



    Yuan surged on the week... (today was biggest spike since Dec 1st)

    [​IMG]



    EUR dumped on ECB yesterday and jumped today on WSJ's Fed QT story, breaking up to the 1.14 technical support/resistance...

    [​IMG]



    Despite the dollar weakness, bitcoin and Ether both fell on the week...

    [​IMG]



    Commodities spiked on the day as the dollar dumped...Silver was best on the week...

    [​IMG]



    WTI chopped around between various whole numbers...

    [​IMG]



    Spot gold spiked above $1300 intraday to its highest since June...

    [​IMG]



    Silver surged on the day amid heavy volume...

    [​IMG]

    Breaking above the 200DMA...

    [​IMG]

    Gold is nearing a "golden cross" formation...

    [​IMG]



    Gold surged in dollars and yuan (the biggest jump in the latter in over a month)...

    [​IMG]

    But Palladium remains the winner among the PMs for 2019...

    [​IMG]



    And finally, since The Fed hiked rates in December, gold remains the leading asset class, just ahead of The Dow...

    [​IMG]

    And we leave you with this from a decade ago - has anything really changed?... "wankingbankers"...


    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    Sven Henrich

    ✔@NorthmanTrader


    Still the greatest financial crisis explanation rant ever.
    See if you note anything different 10 years later.#wankingbankers
     
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2019-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Why Tom Terrific Might Not Be So Terrific For Stocks
    Posted by lplresearch

    The Super Bowl indicator suggests that stocks rise for the full year when the Super Bowl winner comes from the original National Football League (now the NFC), but when an original American Football League (now the AFC) team wins, stocks fall. We would be the first to admit that this indicator has no connection to the stock market, but the data don’t lie—the S&P 500 Index has performed better, and posted positive gains with greater frequency, over the past 52 Super Bowl games when NFC teams have won. Of course, it’s worth noting that this didn’t work last year when the Eagles won the Super Bowl, and the S&P 500 lost 6.2% in 2018.

    A simpler way to look at the Super Bowl indicator is to look at the average gain for the S&P 500 when the NFC has won versus the AFC—and ignore the history of the franchises. This similar set of criteria has produced an average price return of 10.2% when an NFC team has won, compared with a return of 5.8% with an AFC winner. An NFC winner has produced a positive year 79% of the time, while the S&P 500 has been up only 63% of the time when the winner came from the AFC.

    [​IMG]

    Would you believe the numbers actually get worse when the Patriots are involved? That’s right—the S&P 500 has gained only 2.2% on average in years when the Patriots play in the big game. What about since Tom Brady has been the quarterback? The S&P 500 is down 3.0% on average! “Pats fans might be ecstatic that Tom Brady is starting in a record-breaking ninth Super Bowl, but market bulls don’t want to see the Pats win, as stocks are up only 1.5% for the year on average after a victory versus up 2.9% if they lose,” saidLPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Tom might be terrific, but maybe not in all markets.”

    [​IMG]

    We would like to reiterate that we realize these calculations are in no way relevant to investors—but it sure is more fun to talk about the Super Bowl and stock market returns ahead of the biggest NFL game of the year than snowfalls and freezing temperatures. We hope everyone has a great Super Bowl Sunday and we wish both the Rams and Pats luck!

    FULL DISCLOSURE – LPL Research has an office in Boston and we have many Patriots fans, but the author of this piece sure isn’t one.

    Stocks Bounced, Now What?
    Posted by lplresearch

    The big bounce off the December 24 lows continued last week, as the S&P 500 Index added 2.9% for the week. In fact, it has gained 2.9%, 1.9%, 2.5%, and 2.9% over the past four weeks for a total gain of 10.5%. Of course, the S&P 500 did have its worst December in 87 years and worst fourth quarter since the 2008-09 financial crisis, so stocks were historically oversold coming into 2019. Still, this bounce is quite impressive.

    Just what could this extreme strength be telling us? “Here’s the catch: Stocks have been up huge the past four weeks, but history also tells us that being up more than 1.5% for four consecutive weeks actually tends to see continued outperformance going out the next three months. Don’t fight the trend is another way to put it,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick.

    As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, the S&P 500 tends to continue to outperform after similarly strong four-week stretches. Since 1950, after being up 1.5% or more for four consecutive weeks, the index’s average return going out 8 and 12 weeks has been more than double its overall average.

    [​IMG]

    Main Street’s Uncertainty Climbs
    Posted by lplresearch

    Recent U.S. economic data have been sending a lot of conflicting signals, and Wall Street’s economic outlook is more clouded than at any point of the cycle. Because of this, we thought we’d provide some direction from Main Street via the latest Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Beige Book survey, which was published January 16 and compiled in the weeks before January 7.

    As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, Main Street is finding it more difficult to characterize current economic conditions and set expectations. While sentiment is still healthy, mentions of uncertainty in the Beige Book climbed to the highest in at least four years, while strong and weak words both declined.

    [​IMG]

    Respondents cited uncertainty around trade, politics, financial markets, and global economic conditions. Recently, this uncertainty has bled into economic data. Gauges of manufacturing activity, which are leading indicators for the U.S. economy, have slowed sharply as businesses delay expansion plans and capital investment while they wait for resolutions to the headwinds. To us, though, all the fundamental pieces are still in place for a continued expansion.

    “The growing uncertainty has been tough to ignore, but Main Street’s view of the economy remains relatively upbeat,” said LPL Research Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “We still see a compelling argument for moderate economic growth due to strong consumer demand, modestly accelerating wages, and a robust labor market.”

    As mentioned in our Outlook 2019: FUNDAMENTAL: How to Focus on What Really Matters in the Markets, we expect U.S. gross domestic product growth of 2.5%–2.75% in 2019. Capital spending growth is an important part of our economic outlook (as it leads to increased productivity and contained labor costs), and we still expect business investment to increase this year. We see trade tensions as the primary roadblock to sentiment, and we expect the United States and China to reach a deal soon, eliminating a great deal of current uncertainty and allowing companies to resume their expansion plans.

    February Almanac: Small-Caps Tend to Outperform
    [​IMG]
    Even though February is right in the middle of the Best Six Months, its long-term track record, since 1950, is not all that stellar. February ranks no better than seventh and has posted paltry average gains except for the Russell 2000. Small cap stocks, benefiting from “January Effect” carry over; tend to outpace large cap stocks in February. The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks turns in an average gain of 1.1% in February since 1979—just the seventh best month for that benchmark.

    In pre-election years, February’s performance generally improves with average returns all positive. NASDAQ performs best, gaining an average 2.8% in pre-election-year Februarys since 1971. Russell 2000 is second best, averaging gains of 2.5% since 1979. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000, the large-cap indices, tend to lag with average advances of around 1.0%.
    [​IMG]
    Pre-Election Years: Best Year of Four-Year Cycle
    [​IMG]
    Presidential elections every four years have a profound impact on the economy and the stock market. Wars, recessions and bear markets have tended to start or occur in the first half of the term while prosperous times and bull markets, in the latter half. This pattern has contributed to solid average gains in many pre-presidential-election years. Compared to the average performance of All Years, Pre-Election Years have enjoyed approximately twice the returns.

    In the following charts, Pre-Election Years, All Years and 2019 year-to-date are presented. After a bumpy start to this year, the market has shot higher off of December’s lows. As of yesterday’s close, DJIA was up 4.62%, S&P 500 5.03% and NASDAQ 5.8%. At this early stage of pre-election year 2019, this performance is comfortably above average. If economic growth can remain firm, the partial government shutdown comes to an end, the Fed isn’t overly hawkish with monetary policy and some reasonable resolution to the trade war can be reached, 2019 could live up to expectations.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for January 25th, 2019
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 1.27.19
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
    (VIDEO NOT YET UP!)
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 1.25.19-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the weekly earnings calendar posted in here as well once it's out)

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 1.28.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 1.28.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 1.29.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 1.29.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 1.30.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 1.30.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 1.31.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 1.31.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 2.1.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 2.1.19 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-

    [​IMG]
     
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    And as promised here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($AMZN $AAPL $AMD $FB $MSFT $BABA $TSLA $CAT $GE $BA $T $PYPL $VZ $UPS $V $MCD $LMT $MA $MMM $PFE $XOM $MO $AKS $SALT $ALGN $NUE $BIIB $NOK $WYNN $EBAY $RTN $ARLP $QCOM $HOG $BOH $GLW $BX $X $BMRC $SAP $AGN $WHR $SIRI $CVX $CADE)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 1.27.19 - The Most Important Week of the Year
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
  13. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  14. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Morning Lineup – CAT Bites
    Jan 28, 2019

    Equities aren’t kicking off the week on a positive note, and if this morning’s earnings report from Caterpillar (CAT) is any indication, the busiest week of earnings season could be a long one. CAT had its biggest earnings miss in ten years this morning. It was also the first time that the company missed EPS and revenue forecasts as well as lowered guidance in the same report for the first time since October 2013.

    While equities are poised to open the week on a negative note, this year it all comes down to the actual trading day. As shown in our updated chart comparing the S&P 500’s intraday pattern in the period from 9/20 through 12/24 to the days since then, the last 21 trading days have been characterized by steady buying throughout the trading day, especially during the last hour of trading. Can the last hour bail out the bulls again today?

    [​IMG]
     
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  15. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Poor earnings by CAT and NVDA pulling the market down today :eek: Big earnings week this week and AAPL will be especially interesting since it had so many bad news lately
     
    #15 stock1234, Jan 28, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2019
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  16. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Looks like defensive/high dividend sectors like real estates and staples outperforming today, real estate up close to 1% as a sector
     
  17. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    They are, but the funny thing is SOX is holding up pretty damn well, in spite of NVDA/AMD and INTC's poor earnings.
    Also Dow Transports nowhere near down as much, it's pretty flat.
     
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  18. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Yeah, it is kinda interesting since the chip names usually move up or down together :eek:
     
  19. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Just took a deeper look and it surely will be a very busy week. Not only we get a lot of earnings, we will get the FED on Wednesday, trade talk with China, and the jobs report on Friday. All of these things happening on the same week :eek: :p
     
  20. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Looks like pot stocks are on fire today :eek: CRON, TLRY, and CGC, etc all up pretty nicely
     

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