Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of January 2nd! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Bird's Eye view of the Major Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday New Year's holiday Tuesday 9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM manufacturing 10:00 a.m. Construction spending Wednesday Earnings: Sonic Monthly vehicle sales 2 p.m. FOMC minutes Thursday Earnings: Monsanto, Walgreen Boots Alliance, Constellation Brands, Ruby Tuesday, PriceSmart 8:15 a.m. ADP employment 8:30 a.m. Initial claims 9:45 a.m. Services PMI 10 a.m. ISM nonmanufacturing Friday Earnings: Azz 8:30 a.m. Employment 8:30 a.m. International trade 10 a.m. Factory orders 11:15 a.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans 1:00 p.m. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker 3:30 p.m. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan Saturday 11:15 a.m. Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell at AEA annual meeting 11:15 a.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari at AEA
2016 Ends With A Whimper: Stocks Slide On Last Minute Pension Fund Selling When we first warned 8 days ago that in the last week of trading a "Red Flag For Markets Has Emerged: Pension Funds To Sell "Near Record Amount Of Stocks In The Next Few Days", and may have to "rebalance", i.e. sell as much as $58 billion of equity to debt ahead of year end, many scoffed wondering who would be stupid enough to leave such a material capital reallocation for the last possible moment in a market that is already dangerously thin as is, and in which such a size order would be sure to move markets lower, and not just one day. Today we got the answer, and yes - pension funds indeed left the reallocation until the last possible moment, because three days after the biggest drop in the S&P in over two months, the equity selling persisted as the reallocation trade continued, leading to the S&P closing off the year with a whimper, not a bang, as Treasurys rose, reaching session highs minutes before the 1pm ET futures close when month-end index rebalancing took effect. 10Y yields were lower by 2bp-3bp after the 2pm cash market close, with the 10Y below closing levels since Dec. 8. Confirming it was indeed a substantial rebalancing trade, volumes surged into the futures close, which included a 5Y block trade with ~$435k/DV01 according to Bloomberg while ~80k 10Y contracts traded over a 3- minute period. The long-end led the late rally, briefly flattening 5s30s back to little changed at 112.5bps. Month-end flows started to pick up around noon amid reports of domestic real money demand; +0.07yr duration extension was estimated for Bloomberg Barclays Treasury Index. Earlier, TSYs were underpinned by declines for U.S. equities that accelerated after Dec. Chicago PMI fell more than expected. Looking further back, the Treasury picture is one of "sell in December 2015 and go away" because as shown in the chart below, the 10Y closed 2016 just shy of where it was one year ago while the 30Y is a "whopping" 4 bps wider on the year, and considering the recent drop in yields as doubts about Trumpflation start to swirl, we would not be surprised to see a sharp drop in yields in the first weeks of 2017. Already in Europe, German Bunds are back to where they were on the day Trump was elected. So with a last minute scramble for safety in Treasurys, it was only logical that stocks would slide, closing the year off on a weak note. Sure enough, the S&P500 pared its fourth annual gain in the last five years, as it slipped to a three-week low in light holiday trading, catalyzed by the abovementioned pension fund selling. The day started off, appropriately enough, with a Dollar flash crash, which capped any potential gains in the USD early on, and while a spike in the euro trimmed the dollar’s fourth straight yearly advance, the greenback still closed just shy of 13 year highs, up just shy of 3% for the year. Meanwhile, the year's best surprising performing asset, crude, trimmed its gain in 2016 to 52%. The S&P 500 Index cut its advance this year to 9.7 percent as it headed for the first three-days slide since the election. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was poised to finish the year 200 points below 20,000 after climbing within 30 points earlier in the week. It appears the relentless cheerleading by CNBC's Bob Pisani finally jinxed the Dow's chances at surpassing 20,000 in 2016. Trading volume was at least 34 percent below the 30-day average at this time of day. A rapid surge in the euro disturbed the calm during the Asian morning, as a rush of computer-generated orders caught traders off guard. That sent a measure of the dollar lower for a second day, trimming its rally this year below 3 percent. Actually, did we say crude was the best performing asset of the year? We meant Bitcoin, the same digital currency which we said in September 2015 (when it was trading at $250) is set to soar as Chinese residents start using it more actively to circumvent capital controls, soared, and in 2016 exploded higher by over 120%. For those nostalgic about 2016, the chart below breaks down the performance of major US indices in 2016 - what began as the worst start to a year on record, ended up as a solid year performance wise, with the S&P closing up just shy of 10%, with more than half of the gains coming courtesy of an event which everyone was convinced would lead to a market crash and/or recession, namely Trump's election, showing once again that when dealing with artificial, centrally-planned market nobody has any idea what will happen, or frankly, what is happening. Looking at the breakdown between the main asset classes, while 30Y TSYs are closing the year effectively unchanged, the biggest equity winners were financials which after hugging the flatline, soared after the Trump election on hopes of deregulation, reduced taxes and a Trump cabinet comprised of former Wall Streeters, all of which would boost financial stocks, such as Goldman Sachs, which singlehandedly contributed nearly a quarter of the Dow Jones "Industrial" Average's upside since the election. The FX world was anything but boring this year: while the dollar soared on expectations of reflation and recovery, the biggest moves relative to the USD belonged to sterling, with cable plunging after Brexit and never really recovering, while the Yen unexpectedly soared for most of the year, only to cut most of its gains late in the year, when the Trump election proved to be more powerful for Yen devaluation that the BOJ's QE and NIRP. The largely unspoken story of the year is that while stocks, if only in the US - both Europe and Japan closed down on the year - jumped on the back of the Trump rally, bonds tumbled. The problem is that with many investors and retirees' funds have been tucked away firmly in the rate-sensitive space, read bonds, so it is debatable if equity gains offset losses suffered by global bondholders. And speaking of the divergence between US equities and, well, everything else, no other chart shows the Trump "hope" trade of 2016 better than this one: spot thee odd "market" out. So as we close out 2016 and head into 2017, all we can add is that the Trump "hope" better convert into something tangible fast, or there will be a lot of very disappointed equity investors next year. And with that brief walk down the 2016 memory lane, we wish all readers fewer centrally-planned, artificial "markets" and more true price discovery and, of course, profits. See you all on the other side.
Closer Look At First Year Of Presidential Cycle Posted by lplresearch In our recently released Outlook 2017: Gauging Market Milestones, we showed why a pickup in earnings growth, stable valuations, and mid-to-late cycle growth should lead to a continuation of the soon to be eight-year-old bull market and likely lead to mid-single-digit equity returns in 2017. As we presented in the below image, stock market gains tend to happen when the economy is mid-cycle (mid-cycle years are highlighted). This increases the odds of higher equity prices next year, but it is worth noting 2017 is also the first year of the presidential cycle. You can see below those are marked with an asterisk next to the year, and recently, there have been some nice gains during these years. Taking a closer look at this, since 1950,* the first year of the presidential cycle returned only 6.0%—the worst out of the four years. The third year has been historically the strongest, at up 16.1% on average. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “The first-year of the presidential cycle might have been weak historically, but interestingly, if you start with more recent action, since 1997 (the first year of Clinton’s second term), the first year of the presidential cycle has been up 14.8% on average and has been the best year out of the four-year cycle, topping the 9.7% return during the typically bullish third year.” Considering the potentially bullish combo of the first year of the presidential cycle and likely mid-cycle growth, the odds of continued equity gains are strong next year. S&P 500 Seasonal Patterns Suggest Healthcare and Information Technology to Potentially Outperform in January Posted by lplresearch As we approach the New Year, let’s take a look at equity returns in January. Over the last 20 years, January has on average been a flat month for the S&P 500. Even though this suggests an approximately 50% likelihood that equities will be positive this January, some sectors have exhibited a seasonal tendency to outperform the S&P 500 in January, notably healthcare and information technology. Since 1997, the S&P 500’s average price change for January has been -0.1%, with a best return of 6.1% and a worst return of -8.6%. One way to try to outperform this relatively flat seasonal performance early in the year may be to invest in sectors or industry groups within the S&P 500 that have historically outperformed the index in January. Comparing the price performance of an underlying sector or industry group to the broad-based index over a specific period can help identify the strongest seasonal performers compared with the overall market. However, performance is often driven by factors other than seasonality. The sectors and industry groups that on average have outperformed the S&P 500 in January since 1997 are highlighted in green in the table below; those that underperformed the index are highlighted in red. Since 1997, one of the S&P 500 sectors that has outperformed the S&P 500 Index consistently in January has been healthcare, outperforming by an average of 1.7%, with a high return of 11.5% and a low return of -11.3% over this 20-year time frame. Digging a little deeper, we note three industry groups within the healthcare sector that have displayed relative strength in January. The S&P 500 Healthcare Technology Industry Index has outperformed the S&P 500 Index, on average, by 3.7% in January, with a high of 10.5% and a low of -4.7%. The S&P 500 Life Sciences Industry Index has outperformed the S&P 500, on average, by 3.7% in January, with a high of 14.8% and a low of -6.5%. The S&P 500 Biotechnology Industry Index has outperformed the S&P 500 Index, on average, by 2.9% in January, with a high of 17.4% and a low of -9.1%. In addition to healthcare potentially having a seasonal tailwind in January, the information technology sector also tends to outperform broad-based stocks during this time frame. Since 1997, the S&P 500 information technology sector has outperformed by an average of 1.9%, with a high of 14% and a low of -6.8%. We note the S&P 500 semiconductor and equipment industry group’s relative strength in January, which outperformed the equity benchmark, on average, by 3.7%, with a high of 19.8% and a low of -9.3%. As we approach the New Year, seasonal patterns and data over the past 20 years suggest that equity performance in January may potentially be flat, but we can look to both the healthcare and information technology sectors as potential strong seasonal candidates for relative strength performance compared with broad-based stocks. Expect Muted Bond Returns in 2017 Posted by lplresearch The last few months of 2016 were volatile for the bond market, as the election of Donald Trump led markets to price in higher growth and inflation expectations. A largely expected Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in December and continued foreign sales of Treasuries (mainly from China, as it sells assets in order to avoid a further devaluation of its currency) also put further upward pressure on rates. These factors caused the 10-year Treasury yield to move to 2.50% as of December 28, approximately 0.7% higher than its pre-election levels, and more than 1.1% above its all-time low of 1.36% reached in July 2016. Moving into 2017, we believe the bond market has priced in much of the potential good news from a Trump administration, including tax reform, fiscal stimulus, and decreased regulation, which should lead to a moderation in the pace of rate moves. Importantly, while the focus in recent months has been on rising rates, factors exist that could push rates lower, including low overseas rates pushing foreign buyers toward now-higher Treasury yields, or the possibility that Trump may not be able to push through all the reforms that markets expect in a timely manner. These factors, combined with the potential for two to three Fed rate hikes in 2017, lead us to expect the 10-year Treasury yield may end 2017 in its current range of 2.25% to 2.75%, with the potential for as high as 3% if meaningful fiscal stimulus is enacted. Scenario analysis based on this potential interest rate range and the duration of the index indicate low- to mid-single-digit returns for the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index for 2017. Given our bias toward rising rates, we are targeting below-benchmark duration, with a focus on a core of high-quality intermediate-term bonds, such as investment-grade corporate bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). With low odds of a recession in 2017, we also believe a small allocation to economically sensitive areas of the bond market, such as bank loans and high-yield bonds, may make sense for appropriate investors. For more details surrounding our sector views and fixed income outlook, please see our recently published Outlook 2017: Gauging Market Milestones. 2016 S&P 500 Price Chart Dec 30, 2016 The S&P 500 couldn’t quite break the double-digit percentage mark for the full year, finishing up 9.54%. Below is one of the many graphics included in our 2017 annual outlook report. The top chart shows the S&P 500’s daily price movement throughout the year. Months that finished positive have green highlighting, while down months have red highlighting. After a brutal January, the S&P gained nicely from March through July before trending slightly lower from August through October. The post-Trump rally then took hold in November and December. In the second chart, we highlight the daily change of the index for the entire year, with up days highlighted in green and down days highlighted in red. January was definitely the most volatile month of the year. The big dips in late June were due to the UK’s Brexit vote. The final chart shows the average change of the S&P by weekday for the year. Monday through Thursday all ended up averaging gains in 2016, while Fridays averaged a very slight decline. Rough Year for Analysts’ Most Loved Stocks Dec 30, 2016 The chart below is pulled from the Intro section of our 2017 annual outlook report. We’ve broken the S&P 500 into deciles (10 groups of 50 stocks each) based on analyst buy and sell ratings at the start of 2016. The 50 stocks in decile 1 were the most loved stocks by analysts at the start of the year, while the 50 stocks in decile 10 were the most hated. We then calculated the average percentage change in 2016 for the 50 stocks in each decile. This allows us to see how well the most loved and hated stocks did this year. As shown, analysts didn’t have a great year. The 50 stocks with the highest percentage of “Buy” ratings were up an average of just 2.88% this year, while the 50 stocks with the least amount of “Buy” ratings were up an average of 15.29%. Deciles 7, 8, and 9 all posted huge average gains as well. Let’s see if 2017 is a better year for the analyst community than 2016 was. A Bearish Signal From The 2017 Bespoke Report Dec 30, 2016 Our 2017 Bespoke Report market outlook contains a comprehensive view of where things stand today and what we expect for markets in 2017. We like to think it paints a full picture, taking into account all the positives and negatives facing investors. In 178 pages of charts, analysis and commentary there is obviously no shortage of important data points, some of which are bullish and some bearish. Below we’re including one of the more bearish tables from the outlook report. In an admittedly small sample set of only four historical examples, each time in history that a Republican president has followed a Democrat, stocks have fallen in the first year of the Republican administration. Returns were anywhere from -6.6% (Eisenhower) to -13.0% (Bush II). Lest we end 2016 on an overly pessimistic note, perhaps we’ll post a more bullish chart from the outlook report before the ball drops. 104 Weeks And Counting Dec 29, 2016 Another week, another reading where bulls failed to take the majority in the latest poll of individual investor sentiment from AAII. Bullish sentiment increased from 44.6% up to 45.6% this week, representing the fourth straight week where bullish sentiment moved less than two percentage points. To put that in perspective, the average weekly change in bullish sentiment during the current bull market has been +/-5 percentage points. With bullish sentiment coming in under 50% once again, it has now been below this level for two full years! Bulls may have only seen a slight increase in their ranks, but bearish sentiment declined more than 3 percentage points for the second straight week, falling from 29.15% down to 25.74%, as the neutral camp increased to 28.7%. Wall Street Strategists Bearish on 2017? Dec 26, 2016 We’re currently working on our annual outlook report, and one of the things we look at each year is Wall Street strategists’ year-end price targets. Our view on this is that predicting where the S&P 500 is going to be one month from now is hard enough, so trying to predict where prices will be a full year from now is a fool’s errand. Nevertheless, strategists do it, and we analyze it. While one strategist’s prediction doesn’t hold much weight, looking at the average of all the strategist’s predictions has a “wisdom of crowds” aspect to it. In that regards, below is a look at the average S&P 500 year-end price target of Wall Street strategists going back to the year 2000. For each year, we show the average year-end price target and what that would have translated into in terms of year-to-date percentage change. We also show where the S&P 500 actually ended the year in terms of price level and year-to-date change, and then we show the difference between the expected YTD change from strategists and the actual YTD change. A couple of things stand out right away when looking at the table. First off, there hasn’t been one year in the last 17 where strategists were collectively expecting the S&P 500 to decline. The most bearish they’ve been was in 2005 when the average year-end price target was looking for a gain of just 2.8%. Second, the average expected change over all 17 years has been +9.6%. That’s 5.4 percentage points higher than the actual average annual gain of 4.2% that the S&P has experienced over the same time period. At the start of 2016, the average year-end price target was predicting a gain of 8.4%, and if the year were to end today, they would have underestimated the market’s actual change by 2.2 percentage points. That’s actually a very good prediction compared to most years. The only year where strategists as a group called it closer was in 2005 when they missed the actual YTD change by just 0.2 percentage points. The biggest misses for strategists came in years when the S&P entered bear markets. In 2001 and 2002, strategists were looking for double-digit percentage gains, but the S&P ended up posting double-digit percentage declines. In 2008, strategists were looking for a gain of 11.1%, and the S&P went on to fall 38.5% that year. The biggest under-estimation came in 2013 when the consensus call was for a gain of 7.6%. In that year the S&P rallied 29.6%, resulting in a miss of -22 percentage points. This all brings us to 2017. As of now, the average Wall Street strategist has a year-end price target of 2,356. Based on the S&P’s current level, that translates into a 2017 gain of 4.2%, which coincidentally is the same as the average actual annual move that the S&P has experienced going back to 2000. Compared to the average expected gain of 9.6% that strategists have predicted over the last 17 years, their outlook for 2017 is relatively bearish. It would be the smallest expected gain of the entire bull market, and the smallest reading seen since 2005. While we’ve seen wildly positive sentiment in many of the investor and consumer surveys released recently, it appears that Wall Street strategists don’t have high expectations for the stock market in the year ahead. Europe Fades Dec 29, 2016 The chart below is one we included in the International section of our 2017 annual outlook report. It’s a historical chart showing trends in the share of global equity market capitalization for the US, Europe, Asia, and the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China). For the euro area, we used the UK, France, Germany, Switzerland, Sweden, Spain and Italy. For Asia, we used China, Hong Kong, Japan and Taiwan. The main thing that stands out in this chart is the decline in share for Europe over the last 12 years. Back in 2004, the euro area held the second largest share of world market cap behind the US. Back then, its share was around 23%, while Asia made up just over 15%, and the BRICs made up less than 5%. Over time, share has eroded for Europe while Asia and the BRICs have seen big gains. While the US still makes up 38%+ of world market cap, Asia now makes up roughly 25%, while Europe only makes up 15%. The BRICs are nearly inline with Europe with a combined share of 14%. Jobless Claims Right on the Mark Dec 29, 2016 After an unexpected jump last week, jobless claims pulled back slightly this week, falling to 265K which was right inline with expectations. In a streak in length rivaling the one where bullish sentiment has been below 50% for 104 straight weeks, jobless claims have now printed sub-300K for the 95th straight week. That’s the longest streak since 1970! With this week’s drop, the four-week moving average saw a slight decline falling from 263.75K down to 263K. That’s 13.5K above the cycle low of 249.5K back in early October. On a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis, jobless claims increased from 315.1K up to 340K. For the current week of the year, that’s more than 130K below the average since 2000 and the lowest reading for the current week of the year since 1970. Finally, A Post-Trump All Or Nothing Day Dec 28, 2016 The S&P 500’s decline today wasn’t even 1%, but breadth came in very weak. Within the S&P 500, the net advance/decline (A/D) reading was -455, which is the weakest daily breadth seen since 10/11/16 and the first “all or nothing day” for the S&P 500 since the election. As long-time readers are aware, we consider an “all or nothing day” to be a day where the S&P 500’s daily net A/D reading is either above +400 or below -400. All or nothing days have recently become increasingly uncommon; entering today there was just one occurrence in the last 50 trading days which was near the lowest levels of the entire bull market. At the current level of 2, there haven’t been many periods during this bull market where the rolling 50-day total was this low. Even with the recent drought of all or nothing days, thanks to some volatility early this year, this year’s total of 28 isn’t low by longer term historical standards, although it is on the low side relative to recent history. Since 1990, 2016 ranks as number eight in terms of most all or nothing days, but over the course of the last ten years, there have only been two other years (2013 and 2014) where there were fewer. What really stands out about today’s occurrence is that it is only the sixth downside all or nothing day since 1990 (out of 262 occurrences) where the S&P 500 was down less than 1%. What is also notable about the prior five occurrences is that they all occurred since 2011. We have long argued that the increased popularity of ETFs and passive investment strategies has led to increased correlation between individual stocks where a rising tide lifts all boats and vice versa. The fact that all of these downside all or nothing days with less than a 1% decline have occurred in the last few years only reinforces that argument. World of Pain for NVIDIA (NVDA) Shorts Dec 28, 2016 With the stock entering today on a ten-day winning streak following what has already been a remarkable year for shares, you have no doubt heard of the NVIDIA (NVDA) story in 2016. The stock is up over 200% this year, making it far and away the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 and one of only two stocks in the index that have doubled in 2016. What you probably haven’t heard, though, is just how many traders have been betting against the stock along the way. You see, short interest as a percentage of float for NVDA currently stands at 14%, which is an extremely high reading for a large cap stock. Of the stocks in the S&P 500 with market caps of $50 billion or more, NVDA’s short interest is the highest of any, and the short interest levels of the next closest stock (DOW – 7.9%) isn’t much more than half NVDA’s. So while there have surely been a lot of investors that have ridden NVDA higher, there are more than a few losers as well. Two Impressive Streaks Involving Eight Dec 27, 2016 Welcome back from the Holiday break! With just four trading days left in 2016, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) hasn’t had a down week since the election and enters today riding a seven-week winning streak where it has rallied over 12%. If the Dow finishes in the green this week, it will be the longest weekly winning streak for the index (on a total return basis) since November 2013 (also eight weeks). Naturally, with stocks up every week since the election, Donald Trump has been taking a lot of credit for the rally, and why shouldn’t he? It’s hard to justify any other catalyst for the market’s strength. On the subject of winning streaks, the Dow is also on the verge of completing an even more impressive streak involving the number eight. With a total return of 17.7% already YTD, the Dow will finish up 2016 with its eighth straight year of gains (barring a cataclysmic crash), and over that span, it has rallied more than 180%. So while Trump can boast about an eight-week winning streak, you can bet that in the last remaining weeks of President Obama’s time in office, he and his surrogates will be boasting about an eight-year winning streak for stocks under his (and the FOMC’s) watch.
Stockaholics come join us in our weekly market poll and vote where you think the markets will end this upcoming week ahead!- Weekly SPX Poll - Sentiment (1/2-1/6) <-- click there! In addition we have our weekly stock picking contest now up and running as well!- Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest for the Week of (1/2-1/6) <-- click there! We also now have a daily stock picking & market direction guessing challenge running here!- Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Tuesday (1/3) <-- click there! ======================================================================================================== In addition as we're ringing in the New Year 2017 we've got a handful of new market polls for you folks to vote on- /GC Gold Futures - $1000 or $1400 next? Vote! <-- click there! /CL Crude Oil Futures - $40 or $60 next? Vote! <-- click there! /DX US Dollar Index Futures - $105 or $95 next? Vote! <-- click there! 10-Year Treasury Note Yields - 3% or 1.75% next? Vote! <-- click there! Will the Euro hit parity against the USD in 2017? Yes or No? Vote! <-- click there! U/J - 130 or 100 next? Vote! <-- click there! SPX Poll - 2350 or 2150 first? Vote! <-- click there! Fed Poll: How many times do you think the FOMC will hike rates in 2017? <-- click there! SPX Poll - What do you think will be the HOY in 2017? <-- click there! SPX Poll - What do you think will be the LOY in 2017? <-- click there! ======================================================================================================== And lastly here are our upcoming monthly, quarterly, and yearly stock market polls & stock picking challenges to kick off 2017! First the polls- Monthly SPX Poll - January 2017 Sentiment <-- click there! Quarterly SPX Poll - Q1 Sentiment (January - March) 2017 <-- click there! Yearly SPX Poll - 2017 Sentiment (Jan. - Dec.) 2017 <-- click there! And here are our stock picking challenge threads- Stockaholics January 2017 Stock Picking Contest <-- click there! Stockaholics Q1 2017 Quarterly Stock Picking Contest <-- click there! Stockaholics 2017 Yearly Stock Picking Contest <-- click there! ======================================================================================================== And finally we have a 2017 predictions and stock market calls thread also open ... do you have a prediction for 2017 (whether that be a stock market prediction or a sports prediction, etc?) post 'em up in the thread link below! 2017 Predictions & Stock Market Calls <-- click there! It would be pretty awesome to see some of you join us and participate on these sentiment polls & challenges as we open 2017! Have a fantastic New Year's weekend everyone!!!
BTW, just a quick reminder in here (as I'm sure it will get asked at some point or another over this weekend lol) but yes the markets are indeed closed all day this upcoming Monday in observance of New Year's Day. The Globex (futures) session is also closed all day but will re-open at 6pm eastern time on that Monday evening-
I almost forgot to post these here too! Here is just a quick update on the state of the SCR (Santa Claus Rally) as of this week's close. Remember we still have 2 full trading days left to go in the SCR. It officially concludes at the close on Wednesday, January 4th! And here is where the major indices stand since the Nov. 8th Presidential Election-
i took a chance here, xbi hit the 200 dma, so i went all in on labu, lets see if i get shaken out next week or if the xbi bounces off the 200 again. also bought some more OPK, its mind boggling how this got hit harder off HGH than the CRL for rayaldee back in march, when rayaldee market potential is worth way more than hgh...lol. so to recap im starting 2017 with LABU, AMD, and BAC. and of course i still got opk and T.
Earnings releases in this holiday-shortened week ahead: ($STZ $WBA $MON $UNF $SONC $RPM $RECN $ANGO $LNDC $SCHN $RT $AZZ $HELE $MG $GBX $FC $PSMT $AEHR)
Last market Wrap and sector watch for 2016 It doesn't appear as though we are not going to get that Santa Claus rally but there are still some sectors that could get a nice bounce next week like the SMH and Tech sectors off of CES. Overall prudent to be cautious with long biased trades. Fed next week FOMC minutes on Wed I would like wish everyone a fantastic, Happy, prosperous, HEALTHY and joyous New Year!
Welcome to 2017 Stockaholics! Here is my quick year in review for the major markets that was in 2016- Recall that we started off 2016 with one of the worst market starts ever in history. But, in the end the markets end 2016 solidly in the green for the year with the small caps index Russell 2000 and Transports leading the way. Where most of the gains came after the U.S. presidential election. As most of the summer was extremely choppy and sideways. Offensive sectors in the S&P like Energy, and Financials led the way higher. The U.S. dollar really took off post-election as well, in fact hitting a 14-year high. After a rough start for Crude Oil, hitting the mid $20s at one point in the year, that saw a pretty nice recovery to end the year. Treasuries really took it on the chin as well after the election. With yields on the 10-year in particular hitting its highest level in over a year. It has been an interesting year to say the least in 2016. Let's see what 2017 has in store for us all! May it be a very prosperous one for everyone! Hope you all had a great New Year!
Darn! Sorry @Baggi. I have never been able to figure that one out. Thanks for the heads up again. Just curious but does it still log you out when you try clicking on the links within the groups sub sections where the threads are located? http://www.stockaholics.net/groups/cys-stockaholics-thread-archives.3/forums <-- click there to open. I went ahead and stickied all of those links to the top of each respective group section so people don't have sift through all of the other threads. Wish I knew what is causing the log out issues...
Hey to all my past HSM Friends!!! It has been awhile and I was hard at work studying and finishing my electrical diploma here. I am finally done and starting work at a new company next week and wanted to get back into trading SO stockaholics eh? ;P Awesome to see us growing this is a very nice platform just went through and setup all my profile. Anyways Happy New Year to everyone here!!! May I boldly say I think this is the year for the short the rips type of plays. Volatility will be ever greater, and I am long PM's! To start off with my first post in a LONG time, I wanted to focus on a short of a high beta play as we get some potential seasonal tax selloff. Eyeing FB for two reasons. Firstly, thanks to FINVIZ: Over one Billion worth in Shares Liquidation since the summer of last year (2016) Mark Zuckerberg and Company have been busy! Look at the perfect increments too, not wanting to crash the price on themselves. 48 mil a pop every time... view full list at finviz.com/ scroll to bottom after searching ticker for anyone not familiar with it. (BTW while you're there take a look at trading happening on AAPL,NVDA, GOOGl, MSFT, supports my bias) Secondly, FB failed to participate in the recent Trump Rally, to me that shows weakness and no interest in buying even with that recent catalyst. Eyeing the 114 level and then a break of that I see us going to 110/the next most definitive volume weighted trade area. Really glad to be back on the scene and to collaborate with some like minded individuals! Lots of love to everyone and hope you all had an awesome Christmas/New Years!!
^^ Holy cow! Now there's a name I remember from the old boards from waaaaaaay back when haha. What's up @Giorgio23! Loooong time. A big time welcome back to you. Nice surprise seeing you back. Been noticing a couple of our old timers returning recently. Great first post back btw! And I agree with much of it. Should be a pretty interesting year with the volatility imo as well. I'm really looking forward to getting back into the full swing of things again soon. New year, fresh start! Happy new year to you as well! May this 2017 be a prosperous one for all of us.
