Stock Market Today: July 30th - August 3rd, 2018

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by Stockaholic, Jul 27, 2018.

  1. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    13,767
    Likes Received:
    7,050
    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of July 30th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]


    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]


    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]


    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Earnings: Caterpillar, CNA Financial, Diamond Offshore, Seagate Technology, Bloomin' Brands, Booz Allen Hamilton, Simon Property Group, AK Steel, KLA Tencor

    10:00 a.m. Pending home sales

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: Apple, Procter and Gamble, Pfizer, Archer Daniels Midland, Arconic, Credit Suisse, Baidu, Cheesecake Factory, Pandora, Ralph Lauren, Nintendo, Cummins, Sanofi, Charter Communications, Samsung Electronics, Shire, Masco, Sony, BP, Honda Motor, Anadarko Petroleum,Devon Energy, Tanger Factory Outlet

    FOMC begins two-day meeting

    8:30 a.m. Personal income

    8:30 a.m. Employment cost index

    9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices

    9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Humana, Autonation, Tesla, TripAdvisor, Yum China, Wynn Resorts, U.S. Steel, Sturm Roger, FireEye, Square, Encana, Spring, Genreac, Cedar Fair, Chesapeake Energy, Fitbit, Prudential Financial, MetLife, Arcelor Mittal, Bunge, Dominion Energy, Entergy, Allstate, American Water Works, Molson Coors Brewing, Automatic Data, Volkswagen, BNP Paribas, Public Service

    Monthly vehicle sales

    8:15 a.m. ADP employment

    9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI

    10:00 a.m. ISM manufacturing

    10:00 a.m. Vehicle sales

    2:00 p.m. Fed rate decision, statement

    • Thursday

    Earnings: Barclays, DowDuPont, Siemens, Aetna, AmerisourceBergen, Becton Dickinson, Cigna, Duke Energy, CBS, AIG, Kellogg, Clorox, Activision Blizzard, Tableau Software, Wingstop, El Pollo Loco, Shake Shack, GoPro, AMC Networks, TreeHouse, Wayfair, Regeneron, Teva Pharma, TransCanada, Yum Brands, Blue Apron, Allscripts Healthcare

    8:30 a.m. Jobless claims

    10:00 a.m. Factory orders

    • Friday

    Earnings: Kraft Heinz, Petrobras, Allianz, Ameren, Buckeye Partners, Pinnacle West, LyondellBasell, CBOE Holdings, Toyota Motors

    8:30 a.m. Employment report

    9:45 a.m. Services PMI

    10:00 a.m. ISM nonmanufacturing
     
    OldFart and T0rm3nted like this.
  2. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    13,767
    Likes Received:
    7,050
    Carnage Everywhere
    Well that happened...


    As a reminder, Despite all the hoopla, GDP missed...leaving US Macro data at its weakest relative to expectations since...

    [​IMG]



    China stocks rolled over...

    [​IMG]



    And Yuan collapsed...

    [​IMG]



    European stocks rallied on the week after the EU-US trade "deal"...

    [​IMG]



    In the US Nasdaq and Small Caps were clubbed like a baby seal... Trannies and the Dow outperformed...

    [​IMG]



    But futures show the chaotic moves around earnings from the FANGs...

    [​IMG]



    Tech stocks were wrecked this week...

    [​IMG]



    FANGs collapsed to 2-month lows...

    [​IMG]



    All those no-brainers bloodbath'd...

    [​IMG]



    Growth was puked as value soared back on the month...

    [​IMG]



    Today was the worst day for tech stocks relative to banks since Dec 2017

    [​IMG]



    A major factor shift...

    [​IMG]



    JGB yields exploded to their highest since Feb 2017...

    [​IMG]



    This was the worst week for absolute Treasury yield rise in over 2 months and extends last Friday's BoJ-based bond battering...

    [​IMG]



    The Treasury yield curve flattened very modestly on the week but remains notably steeper from pre-BOJ...

    [​IMG]



    The Dollar ended lower for the second week in a row...

    [​IMG]



    Yuan collapsed to fresh lows...

    [​IMG]



    Cryptos had a good week, bouncing back today from last night's SEC disappointment...

    [​IMG]



    Copper and Crude fell today as PMs rallied but the story is flipped for the week...

    [​IMG]



    Summing up the week - Techs Wrecked, China Choked, Bonds were Battered, But Bitcoin held a Bid
     
    OldFart and T0rm3nted like this.
  3. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    13,767
    Likes Received:
    7,050
    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2018-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  4. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    13,767
    Likes Received:
    7,050
    GDP Impresses, But 4% Won’t Last
    Jul 27, 2018

    Below is a breakdown of this morning’s Q2 GDP release, which came in at +4.1% — weaker than expected but still strong nonetheless. Consumption was much stronger thanks in part to lower withholding taxes in paychecks, but that one-time growth bump won’t carry forward to later quarters. Expect strong, but much less robust, consumption growth going forward. Trade was also a huge boost to overall GDP, adding 1.1% to growth in Q2. Soybeans especially, but other crops in general, helped push up exports as sellers rushed goods overseas to beat tariff deadlines. That will likely move the other direction in Q3. Government added to growth but not dramatically, a reasonable pace that may fall a bit but doesn’t look out of line. Fixed investment was notably slower in Q2 than Q1. While still contributing a very healthy 0.9% in Q2, the fall is worth keeping an eye on, especially given slowing leading indicators for capital expenditures from business. Finally, inventories plunged, dragging down growth by 1% QoQ SAAR. Inventories look ridiculously low, and can’t continue to subtract from GDP at the pace they have been over the last few years.

    [​IMG]
    FAANG Still Helping
    Jul 27, 2018

    Below is a chart showing the S&P 500’s price return year-to-date and the impact that the five FAANG (FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL) stocks have had. While Facebook’s horrific reaction to earnings and the worst day in the stock’s history had a negative market impact, the overall performance of the market YTD has been supported by the group. While they’re only a 13.6% weight in the S&P 500’s market cap, they’re driving the market up to the tune of almost half of its YTD gains. Impressive stuff for 5 stocks on their own, even in spite of Facebook’s brutal collapse.

    [​IMG]

    US Stock Market Breadth Strengthening
    Jul 27, 2018

    As shown below, 73% of S&P 500 companies begin the day above their 50-day moving averages, and six of eleven sectors have readings stronger than 73%. This is a sign of healthy underlying breadth for the market.

    [​IMG]

    As shown in the snapshot of our Trend Analyzer tool below (available to Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members), every sector is now back above its 50-day moving average. This is a sign that the market is back to getting broad participation — something that wasn’t the case a few weeks ago when it was only Tech and Consumer Discretionary driving the gains.

    [​IMG]

    High Valuation = High Returns?
    Jul 24, 2018

    The average stock in the S&P 500 is up just under 7% since the index made its double bottom closing low on April 2nd. As shown in the chart for SPY (the S&P 500 tracking ETF) below, price has been steadily trending higher since 4/2 — making a series of higher highs and higher lows. Until the index is able to break above its late January all-time closing high, however, the market’s long-term uptrend cannot be re-confirmed.

    [​IMG]

    So what has been driving performance since April 2nd? We regularly run a report called our “Decile Analysis” where we look at a number of different stock characteristics to see which ones are driving outperformance or underperformance. Examples of some of the stock characteristics we look at include market cap, dividend yield, valuations, institutional ownership, analyst ratings, etc.

    Since April 2nd, one of the performance metrics from our Decile Analysis that stands out the most is valuation.

    Below is a chart showing the average performance of S&P 500 stocks by decile based on trailing 12-month P/E ratios. Decile 1 contains the 50 S&P 500 stocks with the lowest (cheapest) valuations, while decile 10 contains the 50 stocks with the highest (or most expensive) valuations.

    As shown in the chart, the lower the P/E ratio, the weaker performance has been as the market has rallied since the April 2nd low. The 50 stocks with the lowest P/E ratios as of 4/2 are up an average of 2.25% since then (the weakest of any decile), while the 50 stocks with the highest P/E ratios are up 12.69% (the highest of any decile).

    Seeing “growth” outperform “value” during a significant market rally is to be expected, but the degree of outperformance this time around has been especially stark.

    [​IMG]
    Thin Rally? Thin Argument
    Jul 24, 2018

    It continues to amaze us at how often we hear arguments that the market’s rally this year has been thin. A rally that is thin is one where just a handful of stocks are participating in the market’s gains, while the rest of the market languishes. An extreme example of this was in the late 1990s and early 2000 when tech stocks surged, while most other areas of the market declined. Today’s market is nothing even close to resembling that. Take, for example, the S&P 500’s cumulative A/D line. Since the S&P 500 last made a closing high in late January, the cumulative A/D line has seen close to 20 new all-time highs. That’s the opposite of a thin rally!

    Another way to look at this is to compare the performance of the S&P 500 on both a market cap and equal-weighted basis. Looking at performance on an equal-weighted basis tells you how the ‘average’ stock is doing, while the normal market cap weighted approach puts a larger emphasis on the bigger names. So far this year, the market cap weighted S&P 500 is up 5% YTD, while the equal-weighted index is up 3.1%. These performance numbers definitely imply that larger mega-cap stocks in the index are doing the best so far YTD, but all 500 stocks in the index are also up an average of 3.1%, so they’re not exactly slumping.

    [​IMG]

    Performing the same analysis on a sector by sector basis, proponents of the thin rally argument may be surprised to learn that in six of the S&P 500’s eleven sectors, the YTD performance of the weighted index is actually underperforming the performance of the equal-weighted index. Looking at the chart, the only sector where the market cap weighted sector performance is materially greater than the equal-weighted performance is in the Consumer Discretionary sector where Amazon’s 56% return and Netflix’s 87% gain have really skewed things. Outside of Consumer Discretionary, though, there is not a single sector where the market cap weighted sector performance exceeds the equal-weighted performance by more than two percentage points. Given the fact that there is plenty of strength in the market outside of the large mega-caps, a good place to look for new ideas is in our Bespoke 50 list of attractive growth stocks.

    [​IMG]

    Longest Streaks Without a New Bull Market High Since 2009
    Jul 23, 2018

    Mark August 10th on your calendar. That is the day when the current streak of trading days without a new bull market closing high will move into third place overall going back to March 2009. The chart below shows the longest streaks that the S&P 500 has gone without closing at a new bull market high. While the current drought is just about six months long, there have been four streaks since March 2009 that were longer. The longest of these streaks lasted more than a year when the S&P 500 went 285 trading days ending in early July 2016 without a new high. The reason that streak lasted so long was largely due to China’s yuan devaluation in August 2015, and it ended surprisingly enough when US equities actually surged in the days that followed the surprise Brexit vote.

    After the 2015/2016 streak, the only other streak of 200+ trading days without a new closing high ended in February 2012. The catalyst for that dry spell of new highs was when the US was stripped of its AAA rating in early August 2011 amid the debt ceiling debate. Then, in the fall of 2011, FOMC chair Ben Bernanke announced “Operation Twist” which helped to get financial markets back on a firmer footing.

    With the S&P 500 down just 2.56% from its prior bull market high in January, all the bulls need is a few good days strung together in order for this streak to end. Then again, it is the middle of earnings season, so a run of a few bad days would easily extend this streak to third place overall.

    On the subject of earnings season, our most recent Bespoke Report newsletter provided a detailed look at this quarter’s trends so far and what to expect for the remainder of the reporting period. To check out the report and also gain access to tools like our interactive Earnings Calendar, start atwo-week free trial to Bespoke Premium.

    [​IMG]

    Hot Julys & Late-Summer/Autumn Buys
    [​IMG]
    Geopolitical concerns over the past few months from snafus and issues at the U.S. southern border over immigration disputes to tough tariff talk and trade war concerns have been shrugged off by the market since the end of June. Positive Q2 earnings, rising GDP growth, sustained unemployment and low rates continue to please the market, sending the market higher in July. This put DJIA up 4.71%, S&P 500 up 4.70% and NASDAQ up 5.62% for the month of July at yesterday’s close, qualifying this as a “Hot July Market”.

    Gains of this magnitude for July, however, have frequently been followed by a late-summer or autumn selloffs and better buying opportunities than now. In the past, full-month July gains in excess of 3.5% for DJIA have been followed historically by declines of 6.8% on average in the Dow with a low at some point in the last 5 months of the year.
    [​IMG]
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  5. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    13,767
    Likes Received:
    7,050
    Stock Market Analysis Video for July 27th, 2018
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 7.29.18 -
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
    (VIDEO NOT YET UP!)
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  6. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    13,767
    Likes Received:
    7,050
    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 7.27.18-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  7. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    13,767
    Likes Received:
    7,050
    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this upcoming trading week-

    [​IMG]
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  8. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    13,767
    Likes Received:
    7,050
    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  9. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    13,767
    Likes Received:
    7,050
    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar:

    [​IMG]
     
    OldFart and T0rm3nted like this.
  10. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    13,767
    Likes Received:
    7,050
    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the weekly earnings calendar posted in here as well once it's out)

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 7.30.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 7.30.18 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 7.31.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 7.31.18 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 8.1.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 8.1.18 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 8.2.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 8.2.18 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Friday 8.3.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 8.3.18 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  11. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    13,767
    Likes Received:
    7,050
    And as promised here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($AAPL $TSLA $CAT $SQ $CHK $SHOP $BIDU $STX $IQ $SOGO $AKS $X $BP $PG $ON $ATVI $PFE $WYNN $FIT $TEVA $FDC $TNDM $MRO $WLL $ANET $L $LL $FTR $SLCA $CMI $ILMN $REGN $SNE $W $IOTS $P $APRN $SEDG $BAH $RIG $EXEL $GPRO $NVRO $TTWO)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-

    Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning July 30th, 2018 <-- click there to view!
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  12. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    13,767
    Likes Received:
    7,050
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  13. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    13,767
    Likes Received:
    7,050
    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 7.29.18 - Is there a catalyst for higher now?
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
  14. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    4,319
    Likes Received:
    3,375
    http://time.com/5346330/what-the-ne...ut-the-dangers-of-medical-devices-in-america/

    The film, called The Bleeding Edge, claims that the way medical devices make it to the U.S. market is lax and potentially dangerous. The filmmakers interview doctors and patients who say they’ve been personally harmed by an array of devices—including cobalt-based hip replacements, vaginal mesh and robotic surgery devices—and who feel that the guardian group of the medical device industry, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), is not doing enough to protect them.

    <snip>

    Their main concern is a loophole which allows many devices to reach the market without much clinical testing. ... To address that, a provision called the 510(k) pathway was created, whereby a manufacturer can also obtain approval if they can prove that their device is “substantially equivalent” to another device already on the market. The problem, the film argues, is that while that pathway was supposed to be an exception, it’s become a common way devices are approved for sale, and sometimes, it creates an approval chain of devices that are on the market without recent testing.


    Good news for an MZOR short this week, on the other hand I should be more careful about jumping in on ISRG.
    No wonder the ROBO and BOTZ ETFs have not recovered at all since January's selloff.
     
    #14 anotherdevilsadvocate, Jul 29, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 29, 2018
    OldFart and stock1234 like this.
  15. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    5,584
    Likes Received:
    4,619
    Should be a fun week, a lot of earnings plus the Bank of Japan and FED meetings :D Also a jobs report end of the week
     
    OldFart likes this.
  16. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    5,584
    Likes Received:
    4,619
    I did play BOTZ a couple of times in January actually, luckily I didn’t get too greedy :p
     
    OldFart likes this.
  17. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    4,319
    Likes Received:
    3,375
    MGM reporting this week

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44997129
    The UK owner of the Ladbrokes, Coral and Sportingbet brands is in advanced talks about a joint venture with US hotel and casino operator MGM Resorts.
    GVC [The owner] had been considering opportunities in the US after the Supreme Court paved the way to legalise sport betting. GVC confirmed in a statement that discussions were "at an advanced stage regarding such a joint venture".
    Sky News said the two companies would initially invest about $100m (£76m) each in a venture focussed on sports betting. But the alliance could pave the way for a full merger.
    UK betting firms have been looking closely at the US market...In May, gambling firm Paddy Power Betfair bought the US fantasy sports betting site Fan Duel.
     
    OldFart likes this.
  18. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    13,767
    Likes Received:
    7,050
  19. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    13,767
    Likes Received:
    7,050
    good monday morning stockaholics!

    here is the pre-market thread for those wanting to get a quick read in before today's open-
    [​IMG] <-- click there to open!

    hope everyone has a great trading day & week ahead! :)
     
    stock1234 and OldFart like this.
  20. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    4,319
    Likes Received:
    3,375
    WB dropping on a price downgrade.
     
    stock1234 and OldFart like this.

Share This Page