Week ahead: Apple, US jobs, Bank of England Investors are unlikely to catch a summer break next week when the Bank of England delivers its latest monetary policy decision, Apple reports results and markets get the latest update on the health of the US labour market. Here’s what to watch in the coming days. Apple The world’s largest company by market value reports results after US markets close on Tuesday. Analysts on Wall Street are looking for earnings of $1.57 a share, on revenue of $44.9bn. Investors will be watching to see if iPhone unit sales climbed in the company’s fiscal third quarter as pressure grows on chief executive Tim Cook to deliver new products as iPhone sales growth slows. Indeed, sales of the iPhone fell 1 per cent in the last quarter to 50.8m units. Apple is joined next week in reporting earnings by more than 130 companies listed on the S&P 500, including Pfizer, Time Warner, Chesapeake, Kellogg, Motorola, Kraft Heinz and Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway. Companies listed on the S&P 500 are expected to post year-on-year earnings growth of 9.1 per cent and revenue growth of 5.2 per cent. Of the 57 per cent of the S&P 500 that have posted results already, 73 per cent posted better-than-expected earnings estimates, above the index’s five-year average. Bank of England While the Bank of England struck a more hawkish tone at its June meeting, with three members voting in favour of a hike, economists expect the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged when it delivers its latest monetary policy decision on Thursday. Economists expect the bank rate will remain unchanged at 0.25 per cent. “We look for a 6-2 vote this time as the uber-hawk [Kristin] Forbes departs and most top-tier data has surprised to the downside since [Andy] Haldane’s hawkish speech in June,” said strategists at TD Securities. The central bank also delivers its inflation report and economists don’t expect it to reveal a starkly different path for consumer prices. However, investors will be watching for details on how the BoE could reinvest proceeds from bonds in its quantitative easing portfolio that mature before the September meeting. US jobs The US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday is expected to show labour market conditions tightening further. Economists expect the US economy created 180,000 jobs in July, down from 222,000 the previous month. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to slip to 4.3 per cent, from 4.4 per cent in June. “The early evidence on July has also been fairly encouraging,” noted Andrew Hunter, economist at Capital Economics. “The downward trend in initial jobless claims shows little signs of abating, while the recent strength of temporary help employment, which is often a good leading indicator of overall employment, is also a positive sign.” Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3 per cent in July, from the previous month’s rise of 0.2 per cent. However, on a year-on-year basis, it is expected to cool to 2.4 per cent, from 2.5 per cent previously. With the unemployment rate continuing to tick lower, economists and Fed officials expect that wages will start to pick up soon. https://www.ft.com/content/c61859e5-c0d4-3900-9e6e-2c16dab305a4?mhq5j=e1
Busy Week Ahead, Will Dollar Hit Fresh Multiyear Lows? Friday's U.S. GDP report sealed the dollar's fate with weaker than expected growth sending the currency tumbling. The greenback ended the week lower against every major currency except for the Swiss Franc. The U.S. economy expanded by only 2.6% in the second quarter slightly less than the 2.7% consensus forecast. While this is a significant acceleration from last quarter's levels investors honed in on the downward revision to Q1 growth, the headline miss and the dramatic slowdown in price growth. Even the uptick in personal consumption or the positive revision to the July University of Michigan consumer sentiment index failed to help the greenback. We're looking at another busy week ahead but first: The dollar was set on a downward course this week by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement. Although the Fed did exactly what the market anticipated it was not enough. They left interest rates unchanged, acknowledged that inflation declined and set the stage for reducing asset purchases in September by saying balance sheet normalization will begin "relatively soon." These tweaks were all anticipated but somehow investors wanted more. The problem is that everyone is growing skeptical of another rate hike by the central bank this year as Fed Fund futures show only a 40.8% chance of tightening by December. Consumer demand, inflation and wage growth are weak and if Friday's non-farm payrolls report does not impress, all hope could be lost for the U.S. dollar. Despite mixed data, Federal Reserve officials have been pounding the table about the need for additional policy normalization and while the market wants to believe them, they need one piece of unambiguously positive data. With how much the greenback has been sold, traders won't be looking for much - non-farm payroll growth is expected to rise by only 180K versus 222K in June. As long as job growth exceeds 170K AND wage growth rises 0.3% or more AND the unemployment rate drops from 4.4% to 4.3%, the dollar will soar. However if wage growth grows by 0.2% or less and the unemployment rate holds steady, even another 200K increase in payrolls may not be enough to save the dollar. Aside from NFPs, ADP, pending home sales, manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISM numbers are scheduled for release - all of these numbers will be used to shape the market's expectations for the jobs report. http://www.nasdaq.com/article/busy-week-ahead-will-dollar-hit-fresh-multiyear-lows-cm823656
@T0rm3nted will be out this weekend and he asked for a volunteer to do the thread for the coming trading week. I guess I will do it since I have a little bit of a time now Please forgive me that this thread isn't nearly as informative as what @T0rm3nted and @bigbear0083 have done before. I also added a poll at the top for fun, I thought it would be fun to see how people think the market will do next week in this thread Anyway, pretty sure that I am just filling in for @T0rm3nted for a week, he should be back next weekend Good luck to all of you and let's make some money next week
Thanks for getting this thread up @stock1234! Looks good and good luck to everyone this week! I voted up
Thanks for the thread @stock1234 This market goes up every week, there is only one direction it ever goes. It can never go that other direction which I even forgot how to spell!
DDS with a bearish engulfing setting up today after quite a run. Rumors today of an activist wanting them to lease their real estate.
Seems like the big biotechs would rather negotiate partnerships with small companies that have developed cancer drugs instead of acquiring them wholly. 1) Signals that the price of these small companies is too high, 2) Worry about drug prices that they'll be able to sell at. I keep seeing price tags in $100,000s. Gilead got in deep trouble for selling an $84,000 drug that actually cured disease.
Tech stocks underperform again today Would be intreresting to see if we are going to see a new sector to lead this market heading into the final 5 months of the year
Yeah, US drillers need to be more accountable because they are not getting loans as easily (think Cramer's been saying that). And of course Saudi Arabia wants it higher. Commodities in general (oil, gold) may have put in their low prices. So we may start to see inflation.
wow well done Stock at last I can get in this type of thread (before I couldn't too heavy on news-pictures etc... impossible to get in nothing againsy Cy &Tormented) as there is no thread on CNGX I thought to post it here ... as here many trades trade any price stocks do your own DD https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=CGNX
@T0rm3nted than you but I don't trade those... I posted here because it looks interesting but I haven't done any DD
Doesn't seem like it will happen before the bell. But AAPL reports after. I'm going to take a shot on GRUB reporting on 8/3 (not sure if AM or PM). Food delivery is a great idea. The fear is competition. But they're growing, and 21% of float is short.
The FEYE result has me bullish. A company that is losing money and only growing 6% per year is up almost 7% AH. I may be a little salty but I understand. And if this carries CHKP back up then I'll take it. Hey LOGI had strong earnings too but I didn't see it pop 7%. Why is it so hard to read stock news objectively? Looks like we got 22k Dow and going for SPX 2500. I don't know anyone with targets above 2530 though...well @Timbo had a high one.
