Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of June 13th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Bird's Eye view of the Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Tuesday FOMC meeting begins 6 a.m. NFIB survey 8:30 a.m. Retail sales 8:30 a.m. Import prices 10 a.m. Business inventories Wednesday 8:30 a.m. PPI May 8:30 a.m. Empire State survey 9:15 a.m. Industrial production 2 p.m. FOMC statement and projections 2:30 p.m. Fed Chair Janet Yellen press briefing 4 p.m. TIC data Thursday 8:30 a.m. Initial claims 8:30 a.m. CPI 8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed survey 8:30 a.m. Current account 10 a.m. NAHB survey Friday 8:30 a.m. Housing starts 8:30 a.m. Building permits
Spoiler: Post-Payrolls Panic-Buying Evaporates As "Bad News Is Bad News" After All Well that escalated quickly...All-time highs within reach... everything is awesome...wait what... Quite a week: Gold +5.25% in last 2 weeks - best run in 4 months Silver +5.65% this week - best week since May 2015 Copper -4% this week to lowest weekly close since January Sterling -2.5% in last 2 weeks - worst drop in 3 months US Dollar Index +0.6% - up 7 of last 9 weeks 30Y Yields -21bps in last 8 days - best rally in 4 months 2Y Yields -17bps in last 7 days - biggest plunge since Jan 2015 Nasdaq -1.51% today - worst day since Feb 8th VIX +3vols in last 2 days - biggest spike since Feb 9th - highest close in 3 months... Bonds were the big news this week - as equities tried to ignore the message from the massive institutionalized buying of fixed income to record low yields...The yield on the Bloomberg Global Developed Sovereign Bond Index dropped to a record 0.601 percent Thursday. In April 2015, with 10Y German bond yields at 5bps, Bill Gross and Jeff Gundlach called Bunds the "short of a lifetime." Just over a year later - having spiked to over 100bps - 10Y bund yields have crashed since The Fed hiked rates in December and The ECB escalated its bond-buying. Today marked a dramatic moment as Germany almost joined Switzerland (-50bps) and Japan (-17bps) with a 10Y bond yield below zero... as Bunds traded to 0.9bps. And Treasury yields tumbled...and the curve flattened It appears renewed turmoil in Chinese currency markets started rippling through markets...as Yuan hits 4month lows... But Gold and bonds are leading the way post-payrolls, with S&P and WTI lagging... On the week, Nasdaq was the biggest loser... They did try to ramp it in the last 30 - managing to get close to VWAP (but missing out on 2,100 and unch on the week)... And stocks finally caught on to the weak growth, event risk concerns priced into bonds...gold.. and FX carry... Who could have seen this coming? Financials appear to be waking up to the reality of a collapsing yield curve... Today's weakness started when Europe opened, as it seems "sell the news.. AND EVERY BANK" was the meme, but really accelerated when the Brexit poll hit this afternoon... We've been warning about VIX decoupling and it snapped above 17 today...as S&P lost 2100... VIX decoupled... View image on Twitter Follow Stalingrad & Poorski @Stalingrad_Poor 2:21 PM - 10 Jun 2016 7171 Retweets 133133 likes FX markets went turbo today following the Brexit poll with USDJPY snapping lower (Yen strength) and Cable plunging (sterling weakness)... Copper crumbled on the week (inventory spike) and crude slid back to almost unchanged as production rose again. Gold and Silver surged... WTI Crude ended the week below the payrolls level with a $48 handle.. and gold broke above $1280... Charts: Bloomberg Bonus Chart: What Could Go Wrong? Spoiler: Weekend Reading: Intelligent Asininity Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, This past week, the bulls pushed the markets above the downtrend resistance that has held in place since the highs of last year. Of course, while prices have been lofted higher, the deterioration of the fundamental and economic underpinnings have accelerated as reflected by the rush into bonds driving yields below 1.7% on Friday. Talk about an oxymoron. While the bulls are reveling in the recent price advances, and the bullish biased media is touting a quick turn in the earnings picture to support elevated prices, there is a willful blindness being paid to the risk of a correction. As I quoted on Thursday: “There have been an abnormally large number of disagreements among the indicators and studies we look at.That has reduced any kind of edge in our niche, usually a good sign to reduce exposure and wait for a better setup. It’s hard to ignore some of the bullish factors outlined in reports over the past several months but when many of our indicators have been at an optimistic extreme and there is a wide spread between Smart and Dumb Confidence, it’s risky to add exposure. Bottom line, I’m sitting on my hands and risking a runaway breakout.” That is sage advice. While it is noteworthy the market managed to officially breakout above the downtrend from last year, there is still substantial resistance just overhead at all-time highs. I certainly expect traders to make a run for the highs, and potentially even break out to new highs, but that will likely be about all that happens. Of course, as discussed previously, a breakout of the market to all-time highs is not uncommon during a protracted market topping process which most likely defines our current situation. In fact, if you look at the chart above, the current market process certainly seems far more similar to the 60-70’s than I believe most people would like to admit. For now though, the bulls certainly have the bears dancing. The only question is how long will it take for the “intelligent asininity” of the bullish proletariat to finally wear thin. “Told my subs the top is in. But I’m not doing anything about it.” – Heard On Twitter
Ominous Coven Gathers Week After June Triple Witching The second Triple Witching Week of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. On Monday of Triple-Witching Week the DJIA has been down eleven of the last nineteen years. Triple-Witching Friday is better, up nine of the last thirteen years, but weaker over the past 23 years, up thirteen, down ten with an average loss of 0.2%. Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 23 of the last 26 years with average losses of 1.1%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared slightly better during the week after over the same 25 year span, declining 0.7% and 0.2% respectively on average. June’s Typical Trading Pattern Last 21-Years As of today’s close, the fourth trading day, DJIA is up 0.75%, S&P 500 0.59%, NASDAQ 0.42% and Russell 2000 1.91% so far this June. Russell 2000’s outperformance is in line with June’s typical trading pattern over the last 21 years. NASDAQ’s lagging performance however, is not. On average at this point in June NASDAQ (purple line) and Russell 2000 (blueish line) would both be leading DJIA and S&P 500. This outperformance generally lasts until the close of the fifth trading day of June on average. Afterwards the market tends to drift lower until the ninth or tenth trading days before bouncing mid-month. Mid-month gains are then usually surrendered before a late-month rally. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 generally finish June in the green; DJIA and S&P 500 suffer modest average declines.
This going to be an interesting week IMO. Do we pull back and consolidate these gains? I think so, and I also think this market has more upside coming. Thanks @Cy McCaffrey for starting the thread!
ER for the week beginning 6/13 $KR $SWHC $CTRP $SAIC $ORCL $RAD $LITB $JBL $QUNR $BOBE $YGE $KFY $CLC
probably not a market moving event given the frequency of these things nowadays ... but i guess we can add another negative to the list of negatives in this upcoming week ahead with the orlando terrorist attacks overnight ...........
This weeks live Ticker Tv Stocks to watch http://ticker.tv/vegastrader66/575d84aff72261f1275576ae BIIB SQNM AMZN CVA LGF and more
