Stock Market Today: March 19th - 23rd, 2018

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by Stockaholic, Mar 16, 2018.

  1. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of March 19th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]


    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]


    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
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    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
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    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Earnings: Oracle, Canadian Solar

    9:40 a.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic in armchair chat, National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference

    10:00 a.m. ET QFR

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: FedEx, Steelcase

    Fed begins two-day meeting

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Tencent, General Mills, Winnebago, Five Below, Herman Miller, Eldorado Gold

    8:30 a.m. Current account

    10:00 a.m. Existing home sales

    2:00 p.m. FOMC statement and projections

    2:30 p.m. Fed Chair Jerome Powell press briefing

    • Thursday

    Earnings: Nike, Micron, Darden Restaurants, Accenture, Michaels Cos, ConAgra

    8:30 a.m. Initial claims

    9:00 a.m. FHFA HPI

    9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI

    9:45 a.m. Services PMI

    • Friday

    8:10 a.m. Atlanta Fed's Bostic at Knoxville Economics Forum

    8:30 a.m. Durable goods

    10:00 a.m. New home sales

    10:30 a.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari
     
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  2. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Dow Dumps Into Red For March As Yield Curve Crashes To 11-Year Lows
    Stocks went into reverse this week...


    All major US equity indices were lower this week (despite a late-day, OPEX-week, panic bid ramp)...

    [​IMG]


    Chinese stocks were also broadly lower on the week...

    [​IMG]


    Most of European majors were higher on the week, except UK's FTSE...

    [​IMG]


    * * *

    Nasdaq underperformed notably on the day...Futures show the overnight dip when McMaster headlines hit...

    [​IMG]

    (NOTE - look at the idiotic panic bid, then puke into the close!!)

    [​IMG]



    The Dow is back in the red for March...

    [​IMG]



    The Dow managed to scramble back above its 50% retracement level today, but the jaws of the trendlines are closing in one way or the other...

    [​IMG]



    Bank Stocks were all down on the week (led by a 3% drop in Citi) but of most note is the roundtrip from Friday's payrolls spike...

    [​IMG]



    VIX ended the week higher (but drifted lower the last couple of days into OPEX)...

    [​IMG]



    Investors sold the short-end of the Treasury curve this week (2y Yield up 3bps) but the rest of the curve was bid (with some selling on Friday after IP beat)...

    [​IMG]



    Breakevens fell notably on the week also...

    [​IMG]



    While the yield curve steepened a little today, on the week it flattened dramatically to a fresh cycle (Oct 2007) low...the 12bps flattening in s2s30s is the 2nds biggest in 4 months...

    [​IMG]



    The Dollar Index managed to scratch out its 4th weekly gain in a row (reversing as China's new year holiday ended)...

    [​IMG]



    The Russian Ruble fell notably - 2nd biggest weekly drop since July 2017...

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    The gains in the dollar weighed on gold, silver, and copper but crude snapped higher today (for no good reason), jumping into the green for the week...

    [​IMG]



    Quite a stop-run in the energy complex...

    [​IMG]



    Another ugly week for cryptos, though today saw brief buying-panic...

    [​IMG]



    Finally, we note that Gold remains the only asset-class to have normalized post-Feb-Fiasco...

    [​IMG]
     
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  3. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2018-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
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  4. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Worst of Midterm Year 2018 Could Already Be Over
    [​IMG]
    Anyone familiar with the annual Stock Trader’s Almanac and this blog is most likely familiar with the above chart depicting the seasonal pattern of S&P 500 in midterm election years since 1950. Midterm years, like 2018, have a poor reputation largely due to their weak performance. However, we like to refer to midterm as the “Bottom Pickers Paradise” (page 30 of STA 2018) due to the buying opportunities this weakness offers.

    Over the last 17 midterm years, S&P 500 has declined an average 16.90% sometime during the year. The biggest decline was 37.6% in 1974 and the smallest was 4.36% in 1958. Once the decline ended, S&P 500 was higher 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-months later 100% of the time. The average gain from the end of the midterm year decline to one year later was 32.29%.

    [​IMG]

    Was February 8 the end of this midterm year’s decline? Based solely upon historical data, it could be. S&P 500 declined 10.16% in 13 calendar days this year already. Although below historical averages it is not that far from magnitude and/or duration of declines in 1954, 1958, 1986, 2006 and 2014. For this scenario to become reality, S&P 500 would need to close at a new all-time high and not decline greater than 10.16% for the remainder of the year.

    NASDAQ’s new highs earlier this week and last have proven fleeting. Another (and increasingly more likely) scenario for S&P 500 in 2018 would be to rally up to and stall just below its January closing highs before retreating to test and possible violate its February lows sometime during the Worst Six Months (May to October) which would then create the perennial midterm buying opportunity.

    Advance/Decline Lines Near Highs, Rest of Market to Follow?
    [​IMG]
    NASDAQ was the first index to fully recover and close at new all-time highs last Friday and again yesterday. Russell 2000 nearly closed at a new all-time high, but came up about 10 points shy on Monday. DJIA and S&P 500 have been lagging in the recovery.

    In the chart below, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 all appear in the top pane while their corresponding advance/decline (a/d) line charts appear in the lower four panes (NYSE for DJIA). All four a/d lines have been advancing since the start of March when NASDAQ’s bottomed and are now nearing their respective highs from January. This uniform strength, combined with the fact that NASDAQ has already closed at new all-time highs, suggests there is sufficient underlying strength for the market to shake off today’s losses, at least partially triggered by the latest developments in DC, and resume its march higher.

    Weakening Internals
    Mar 16, 2018

    The S&P 500 is starting the trading day just barely above its 50-day moving average, but the percentage of stocks in the index trading above their 50-DMAs is only at 43%. Also, as shown in the second chart below, there are now more stocks oversold (22.6%) than overbought (21%). Both of these readings on breadth are a sign of weakening internals. This is a key trend to keep an eye on.

    [​IMG]

    What Do Strong Earnings Really Mean for Your Investments?
    Posted by lplresearch

    After a large number of companies beat earnings growth expectations and upped guidance in the fourth quarter, many project earnings strength to continue this year. In fact, we recently upgraded our S&P 500 Index earnings expectations to $152.50 from $147.50 as a result of accelerating U.S. and global economic growth prospects that we expect to boost companies’ bottom lines.

    At an earnings per share of $152.50, this comes out to a mid-teen growth rate in 2018, similar to what we saw last year. “The bottom line is that strong earnings are a great sign for equity returns. In fact, the past 12 times the S&P 500 grew earnings by 10% or more, the index finished the full year higher every time. Considering that we are looking for growth in the mid-teens this year, 2018 could once again have equity bulls smiling when all is said and done,” Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist explained.

    [​IMG]

    However, it is important to note that although there has historically been a strong correlation between solid earnings and equity returns,there are always outliers. For instance, in 1991, earnings were down 14% and the S&P 500 gained more than 30%. Then in 2011 earnings were up nearly 16% but the S&P 500 only managed a 2% gain. Still, strong earnings combined with fiscal policy, deregulation, improving confidence, and a steady global economy all suggest that this bull market may make it to the 10-year mark next year.

    The Nasdaq Has Finally Budged After 18 Years
    Posted by lplresearch

    On March 10, 2000, at the peak of the internet bubble, the Nasdaq closed at 5048.62. It took more than 15 years, posting 113 new highs along the way, for the index to break back above that record-high level. Though, from another perspective, it may only just be getting into unchartered territory.

    With inflation all over the news, we decided to look at the Nasdaq (in inflation-adjusted terms). Incredibly, the index crossed above the peak set in 2000 in late February. In other words, it has gone virtually nowhere for 18 full years. “Think about it like this, adjusted for inflation, the Nasdaq is only 2.0% above the peak in 2000. That comes out to a whopping annualized return of 0.10% over the past 18 years. When someone says tech is in a bubble this chart screams that it is anything but,” suggested Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist.

    [​IMG]

    Do Tariffs Really Help Small Caps?
    Posted by lplresearch

    Throughout most of January and February, small caps lagged their large cap counterparts. However, things took quite the turn on March 1, 2018 after President Trump kicked the month off stating that his administration would impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The announcement led to the Russell 2000 Index (a small cap index) seeing its best five-day rally relative to the S&P 500 Index since right after the U.S. election in November 2016.

    To put things in perspective, between March 1 and March 7, the Russell 2000 gained 3.6%, while the S&P 500 added 0.5%. That marks the best outperformance over a five-day [trading] period for small caps since November 10–17, 2016. Besides investors’ concerns surrounding the prospect of seeing the worst trade war since the Great Depression, the head of the National Economic Council stepped down during those five days as well. Once again proving why strong fundamentals can trump many worries. But, why did small caps just soar?

    Well, small cap companies are more domestically focused by virtue of their size and don’t generate nearly as much revenue from overseas operations as larger companies do. In other words, should there be a tit-for-tat, back and forth with tariffs, small caps could be one of the winners, as they are insulated from this.

    “Coming into 2018 we really liked small caps. They tend to do better when the economy is strong and corporate tax reform was a major tailwind for the group as well. However, they lagged earlier in the year but finally started to move on news of the impending tariffs. We think the group still has the potential to do well and may be a place for suitable investors to find some alpha in 2018,” explained Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist.

    Lastly, from a technical perspective, the Russell 2000 recently pulled back to support levels from this upward sloping trendline, before bouncing (see the chart below). Overall, this is a very nice technical picture and one may suggest the bull market in small caps isn’t over just yet.

    [​IMG]
     
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  5. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Stock Market Analysis Video for March 16th 2018
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3.18.18 - Mix 'em and cook 'em in a pot like gumbo!
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
  6. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 3.16.18-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
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  7. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the weekly earnings calendar posted in here as well once it's out)

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 3.19.18 Before Market Open:
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    Monday 3.19.18 After Market Close:
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    Tuesday 3.20.18 Before Market Open:
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    Tuesday 3.20.18 After Market Close:
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    Wednesday 3.21.18 Before Market Open:
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    Wednesday 3.21.18 After Market Close:
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    Thursday 3.22.18 Before Market Open:
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    Thursday 3.22.18 After Market Close:
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    Friday 3.23.18 Before Market Open:
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    Friday 3.23.18 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
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  8. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market challenge threads for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

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    And finally, we have our mystery chart challenge now up as well!
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    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
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  9. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar:

    [​IMG]
     
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  10. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    And as promised here are the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead:
    ($MU $ORCL $FDX $NKE $PLCE $CSIQ $FIVE $HQY $DRI $WGO $DLTH $GIS $ACN $KBH $CHFS $EGO $SGH $SCON $MDWD $FCSC $MIK $JKS $GES $CAG $CCL $HTGM $LEJU $CTAS $HOME $CWCO $NOMD $ATTO $WPM $TGEN $AVGR $FSNN $CMC $OTIV $MLHR $JAG $CDOR)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
  11. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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  12. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Looks like the market will open down today

    upload_2018-3-19_7-30-14.png
     
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  13. Frankenstein

    Frankenstein Well-Known Member

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    Ok. Another SPX 40 handles collapse. I'm back in the game! Lot #1 long in at SPX 2709. At the appropriate time, if more of a collapse happens, I shall enter long Lot#2. The price will go up above 2709 at some point for a profit, according to my theory
     
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  14. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Dow suffers nearly 300-point fall as tech sector slumps on Facebook-led selling
     
  15. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Oh Facebook, is anybody even surprised?
     
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  16. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Apparently the shareholders are
     
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  17. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    So does this lead to lawsuits?
     
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  18. Frankenstein

    Frankenstein Well-Known Member

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    $TICK hitting plus 600. Institutional traders buying at the 2700 level. It's Monday 10:42 a.m. PST
     
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  19. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Wow big selloff today :eek:
     
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  20. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    -3% on the NASDAQ, its a rough day!
     
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