Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of March 4th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday 10:00 a.m. Construction spending Tuesday 7:30 a.m. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren 9:45 a.m. Markit services PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM nonmanufacturing 10:00 a.m. New home sales 11:30 a.m. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin Wednesday 8:15 a.m. ADP employment 8:30 a.m. International trade 12:00 p.m. New York Fed President John Williams and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester 2 p.m. Fed's beige book Thursday 7:45 a.m. ECB rate decision 8:30 a.m. ECB President Mario Draghi press briefing 8:30 a.m. Unit labor costs 8:30 a.m. Jobless claims 8:30 a.m. Productivity and costs 12:15 p.m. Fed Gov Lael Brainard 3:00 p.m. Consumer credit Friday 8:30 a.m. Employment report 8:30 a.m. Building permits 8:30 a.m. Housing starts 10:00 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Economic Summit, speaks on normalizing monetary policy
Nasdaq Extends Longest Win Streak Since 1999 As Macro Data, Earnings Crash Another week of global bond yields, earnings expectations, and macro-economic data signaling shit is hitting the fan as stocks push higher and higher on surging central bank balance sheets and global money supply... At what point does Jay Powell look himself in the mirror and realize what a farce his entire life's work has become. Chinese stocks saw the best week since 2015 (mainly thanks to Monday's utter farce)... Mixed picture in Europe with FTSE 100 the big laggard on endless Brexit headlines and Italy up most just because nothing terrible happened this week... Mixed bag in US markets this week no matter how many dead cat bounces hit. Nasdaq outperformed dramatically, Trannies worst, Dow clung to unchanged and S&P was all about 2800... The Dow desperately tried to close above 26032 (but failed), ending its weekly win streak at 9. Nasdaq is up 10 weeks in a row... the longest win streak since 1999 (when it rose 11 weeks in a row to Dec 1999)... Buyback-related stocks ended the week lower but "most shorted" are up 8 of the last 10 weeks (with only very marginally lower weeks in the odd 2)... S&P tried again to break above and hodl 2800... Tesla tumbled as Musk's mysterious announcement disappointed... Grocers also got hit as AMZN announced plans to roll out its own foodseller... Ugly day for mall operators as retailers in the last 48 hours announce plans to cull over 300 stores Treasury yields soared this week...the worst week for 10Y Yields (up over 10bps) in 4 months (midterms) With 10Y Yields well and truly breaking out of their descending triangle...extending the yields rise today despite terrible macro data. With inflation breakevens soaring alongside WTI (until today)... And all the while, markets remain priced for rate-cuts in 2019!! It appears bond yields are playing catch up with equity Cyclicals relative to Defensives (but we saw how that ended last time)... The Dollar had a solid week (continuing its week on, week off pattern this year)...soaring higher this afternoon despite terrible macro data today The surging dollar spoiled the party in EM also Cryptos were all lower on the week with Ether leading the drop... The soaring dollar took the shine off commodities today with PMs suffering most... Gold tumbled (worst day since June 2018) back below its 50DMA for the first time since Thanksgiving... Silver plummeted to its key technical support... (worst week for silver since June 2017) And gold relative to silver hit its highest since the start of the year back above the important 85x ratio... Notably, Gold in yuan terms dropped to its weakest since before Xmas... Finally, which one of these four charts makes you laugh the most? Stocks decoupled from Earnings expectations... Stocks decoupled from Macro data... Global Stocks decoupled from global bonds... Global Stocks perfectly coupled with Global Money Supply (and Global Central Bank balance sheets)... At what point does Jay Powell look himself in the mirror and realize what a farce his entire life's work has become.
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2019- S&P sectors for the past week-
Typical March Trading: Mid-Month Surge and Flat Over the recent 21 years March has been a solid performing month for the market. Average gains over the period range from a low of 1.29% by NASDAQ to a respectable 2.0% by Russell 2000. March has also been the #1 performing month by average performance for S&P 500 and Russell 2000 over the last 21 years. First trading day of March gains typically kick of the month, followed by choppy to slightly higher trading until around the tenth or eleventh trading day when the market tends to surge higher until around the fifteenth trading day. At this point the market tends to cool and can succumb to some end-of-quarter selling pressure. Bad Q4 Not A Bad Sign Now that the 4th quarter market debacle is behind us and solid gains have been logged in 2019 year-to-date we have taken a deeper dive into market action following Q4 losses for the three main U.S. market indices. DJIA and S&P 500 have been solid over the next for the next four quarters and the next year when Q1 is positive, but also good following all but three subsequent Q1 losses. On average up about 80% of the time for the full year with average gains around 8%. NASDAQ’s record is choppier. Investment-Grade Debt Shines as Fixed Income Sweet Spot Posted by lplresearch Over the past three months, investment-grade (IG) corporate debt has posted its strongest rally in more than two years as investors look for the sweet spot between quality and risk in fixed income. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, IG debt has delivered the best performance since the end of November 2018 among major fixed income classes we track. Higher-quality fixed income benefited from a risk-off environment in late 2018 as the S&P 500 Index slid into an intraday bear market. In January 2019, IG corporate debt posted its biggest monthly gain since March 2016 as investors’ risk appetites resurfaced. Interest rates have also dropped significantly amid the Federal Reserve’s patient approach to tightening, providing extra fuel to the rate-sensitive sector. IG’s relative outperformance over the past three months has been especially encouraging, as solid IG gains this cycle have mostly been a side effect of even stronger rallies in lower-quality high-yield (HY) corporate debt. IG corporate bonds have rallied 4.2% over the past three months (through February 22), compared to HY corporate bonds’ 3.5% gain over the same period. IG bonds haven’t rallied at least 4% over three months and outperformed HY bonds since 2012. “We are increasing our focus on Investment Grade corporate debt over High Yield bonds as the business cycle matures,” said LPL Research Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “HY has historically provided extra return for higher risk, but we believe IG corporates may provide some potential benefits of added credit exposure while avoiding higher risk.” About half of the IG sector carries a rating of BBB—one notch above a HY rating. Still, we aren’t concerned about declining credit quality in corporate bonds, as spreads have been historically low and U.S. companies’ balance sheets remain strong. Equity Inflows Peter Out Even As Bond Buyers Bid Boldly Feb 28, 2019 Today the Investment Company Institute (ICI) updated its weekly recap of money flows into and out of US mutual funds. While fund flows continue to run at a strong pace in aggregate ($3.83bn of inflows in the past week, part of $26.19bn of inflows in the past 4 weeks), there’s been a complete halt to equity inflows. As shown in the table below, every category of domestic equity fund has seen outflows over the past four weeks and all but two small categories of domestic equity funds saw outflows over the past week. At the same time, bond markets have seen massive inflows, with more than $8bn of inflows in the past week and $33.5bn in the past four weeks. The only category of bonds that have not seen inflows is higher risk high yield bonds, which have seen outflows over the past week and four weeks. Municipal bonds have also seen very large inflows; over the past four weeks, that asset class has seen the largest rush of new cash on record dating back to 2007, more than $10bn. For more on mutual fund flows, make sure to check out The Closer tonight.
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 3.1.19- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!- ======================================================================================================== Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (3/4) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote and stock pick! Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (3/4-3/8) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote and stock picks! Stockaholics Weekly T/A Charting Challenge (3/4-3/8) <-- click there to participate! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these! I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
Stock Market Analysis Video for March 1st, 2019 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3.3.19 - A Hanging Man at the Top of the Box Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead. ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 3.4.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 3.4.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 3.5.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 3.5.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 3.6.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 3.6.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 3.7.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 3.7.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 3.8.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 3.8.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
And as promised here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($CRM $NIO $TGT $WB $PLUG $KSS $MGIC $YY $CIEN $IPAR $KR $BZUN $OKTA $BCRX $COST $SINA $SESN $DLTR $LUNA $CTRP $ANF $MEET $ACRX $GDP $SPKE $ADMS $URBN $GNC $GMS $BURL $LJPC $BJ $ADUS $THO $VNET $MRVL $GSKY $GAIA $ROST $AEO $TPB) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning March 4th, 2019 <-- click there to view!
hey fellas, apologies here but i won't be able to get a pre-market news thread up this morning. have a dentist appt. in about an hour from now so will need to head off soon. will try to get one up tomorrow morning. hope you guys all have a great trading day and week ahead this week!
Ha ha, we'll survive but really appreciate the heads-up --- just saved me looking under some rocks for where I might have missed it! Good luck at dentist!
good lord i did not think i was going to miss all that much today ... i thought we'd be in for a lot of chop this week. what a crazy reversal off the open this morning. damn you dentist! curious to see if we roll back over towards the lows by the close ... that would be a pretty epic outside reversal. gotta be honest, i was actually encouraged seeing a close over 2800 on friday to end the week, but failure to get confirmation with closes over it on consecutive days is a little suspect. what's the catalyst today? admittedly i haven't checked or read anything all day today...literally just logging in here first to see what's up. any particular news items to account for this drop, or is it just some technical stuff? markets have been quite extended for a sometime now and due for a some retrace.
Well looked like we could have a pretty big red day at one point, but the market has bounced back pretty decently off the lows
