Stock Market Today: March 6th - 10th

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by Stockaholic, Mar 3, 2017.

  1. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of March 6th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
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    Major Indices End of Week:
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    Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday:
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    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
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    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
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    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    CERAWeek conference begins

    Earnings: Korn Ferry, Thor Industries, Ascena Retail, Analogic, IDT

    IEA Energy outlook

    5:00 a.m. OECD outlook

    10:00 a.m. Factory orders

    3:00 p.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: Brown-Forman, H&R Block, Michaels Cos, Dick's Sporting Goods, Urban Outfitters, Navistar

    8:30 a.m. Trade deficit

    3:00 p.m. Consumer credit

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Adidas, Bob Evans, Ciena, Express, Hovnanian, Children's Place, Camping World, Sunrun, United Natural Foods

    8:15 a.m. ADP payrolls

    8:30 a.m. Productivity and costs

    10:00 a.m. Wholesale trade

    • Thursday

    Earnings: Staples, Ulta Beauty, El Pollo Loco, Verifone, Zumiez, International Game Technology, Party City, Signet Jewelers, Embraer

    7:45 a.m. European Central Bank rate decision

    8:30 a.m. ECB President Mario Draghi briefing

    8:30 a.m. Jobless claims

    8:30 a.m. Import prices

    • Friday

    Earnings: The Buckle, Vail Resorts

    8:30 a.m. Employment report

    2:00 p.m. Federal budget
     
    #1 Stockaholic, Mar 3, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2017
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  2. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Stocks Shrug Off Dismal Data, Hawkish Fed; 'Animal Spirits' Soar To Record High
    Reflecting on the week - a week that saw 7 Fed speakers go full hawktard and drive rate hike odds at a pace never seen before, a week in which hard data tumbled to pre-election lows as 'soft' surveys all hit record highs, a week in which Small Cap stocks tumbled red (but but but they're domestic focused) as bank stocks soared, a week in which The Dow spiked to 21,100 on the back of the biggest retail ETF inflows in 3 years, and a week that saw a virtual currency's price top gold's for the firs time ever - we thought this was appropriate... (NSFW!!)


    Animal Spirits (the gap between hope for the future and the current reality) has never been higher...

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    Year-to-Date, Gold still leads the major asset classes (bonds unchanged) but bank stocks are beating precious metals...

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    Dow up for the 5th week of the last 6 - perfectly glued to 21,000; Small Caps managed to scramble to unchanged for the week...

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    VIX was crushed to a 10 handle in order to keep the Dow 21,000 Dream Alive...

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    Financials were best on the week (with Staples and Utes lower)...

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    But Deutsche Bank was damaged...

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    A big short squeeze after Trump's address to congress and that was it...

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    The Dollar's best week of 2017 - but som every odd price action, especially after the hawkish spech by Yellen...

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    Euro was the week's best performer, Loonie worst among the majors...

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    Gold's worst week of 2017 and Silver's worst week of 2017, even with modest bounce back this afternoon... Crude's biggest weekly drop since mid-Jan

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    Notably the other fear index improved this week as the global USD-XXX basis swap shifted higher bythe most since Dec 2015 (rate hike)...

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    Yields rose across the entire complex this week... (but the curve notably flattened) - long bond outperformed...

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    30Y Yield's biggest weekly spike since the election (twice tagging 3.10% today before fading back lower after Yellen (not what one would have expected on the hawkish tone)..

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    2Y Yield's biggest weekly spike since Nov 2015 (before the telegraphed Dec rate hike)

    Fed Funds Futures biggest weekly drop since June 2015...

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    As rate hike hopes soared to 96%...

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    The Mexican peso rallied for the 4th of the last 6 weeks, erasing most of its weakness post-Trump (helped today by Wilbur Ross' comments).

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    Bitcoin soared to a new record high at $1292 (up 6 of the last 7 weeks and up 17 of the last 22 weeks) surpassing the price of an ounce of gold for the first time...

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    Finally if Yellen was so hawkish, then explain this...

    [​IMG]
     
  3. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Via Lance Roberts of RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

    I have a simple question…

    If the rally in the market that began following the election was pricing in the expectations for tax reforms, repatriation, building the wall, and infrastructure spending, then what did the rally on Wednesday following Trump’s speech to Congress price in?

    [​IMG]


    With the markets now pushing both a 3-standard deviation extension above the 50-dma AND an almost 9% deviation above the 200-dma, there is little argument of the overbought condition that currently exists.


    Strengthen Point-Of-Sale Security From Transaction To Data Center

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    But such rational logic seems to no longer apply.

    At least for now.

    There is just one thing to remember. The markets price in future expectations for the impact of expected events. So, a tax cut here, an infrastructure plan there, all suggests a positive impact to the bottom line of corporate earnings and a valid reason for pushing asset prices higher.

    No argument here. I am currently well positioned in portfolios on the long side of the market for now.

    The question that must be answered is just how much of the benefit from these fiscal proposals have already been priced in perfection? What happens if tax reform is less than anticipated? Or infrastructure spending is cut from $1 Trillion to $500 billion? Or repatriation only brings back a fraction of the dollars anticipated?

    Let’s zoom out for a second and look at the pre- and post-election through the end of last year for clarity.

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    Oh, shoot!….Sorry, that was 1999. Here is last year.

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    Just some things I am thinking about this weekend as I catch up on my reading.

    Trump/Fed/Economy
    Markets
    Research / Interesting Reads


    “If I’d only followed CNBC’s advice, I’d have a million dollars today. Provided I’d started with a hundred million dollars.” – Jon Stewart
     
  4. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Here's how the major indices have fared WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD thus far in 2017-
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    Here are where the major indices stand since the Nov. 8th Presidential Election and Inauguration Day as of market close 3.3.17-
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    S&P sectors for the week-
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  5. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Money It’s A Hit! Slow & Steady Fed Rate Hike Pace Wins the Race
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    Chair Yellen was her magnanimous self today in a speech this afternoon at the Executives’ Club of Chicago. She was especially accommodating (pun intended) in the Q/A after her speech, particularly when asked about the dinner conversation with her Economic-Nobel-Prize-winning husband and PhD Economics Professor Son.

    The Chair reveled in the FOMC’s current successful navigation away from ZIRP (zero interest rate policy). She is also securing her legacy for when her term is up next year. All the governors have been traipsing about the country lately talking up a likely third hike in this tightening cycle on March 15 after their next meeting. The CME Group FedWatch Tool, based on the 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices, is now projecting an 80% chance of another hike at the next meeting.

    The odds are quite high the FOMC will raise rates for the third time this cycle and the second time in three months. So unless something dramatically negative happens on the economic data calendar or geopolitically we will continue on the long slow path to interest rate normalization. To see how this cycle compares we updated and tweaked our performance table to show the DJIA performance after major Fed tightening cycles began.

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    This time around the market loves it. Let’s face it, rates are still incredibly low. Even at 0.75 it’s still extremely accommodative. And another thing, this whole range business is rather interesting. Theoretically, a 25 point increase in range doesn’t necessarily mean a 25 point change in the Fed Funds Rate. In fact, since the December 2016 hike the Effective Fed Funds Rate was at 0.55 for four days at the turn of the year, 0.56 on January 31 and 0.57 on February 28.

    The real issue here is that this expansion and market rally is contrary to many of the detractors’ fears of imminent recession following rate tightening cycles. Perhaps economic growth is just beginning to find its footing, gain traction and gather momentum. The three steps and a stumble crowd may be sorely mistaken this cycle as it has been in several prior cycles. Every time the Fed raises rates does not necessarily cause a recession immediately. Ultimately it probably will, but not anytime soon.

    It is clear in the next chart of the Effective Fed Fund Rate from the St. Louis Fed’s FRED database that there have been several long stretches of time when the Fed had a tightening bias and there was no recession for years! Some of the longer instances for example, roughly, are: 1961-1969, 1977-1979, 1987-1990 and 2004-2007. Sure there were some bears in there, but it’s clear it can take years for rate hikes to lead to recession.

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    The good news is we are just a year and three months into this cycle and economic readings are improving. I suspect the Fed has learned a few things since the stagflation days of the 1970s. Stocks and the economy appear to be on solid ground for the near future and barring the usual summer/fall correction we don’t expect anything sinister to transpire in the market at this juncture.

    March and Beyond Largely Bullish after Positive January and February
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    Although the market took a breather today giving back a portion of yesterday’s surge, it is not all that likely to manifest into anything more than a brief bout. In addition to our positive January Trifecta signaling further gains are quite likely, the history of S&P 500 gains in January and February offers further support for continued strength.

    In 87 years going back to 1930, S&P 500 has been positive in January and February 33 times. Strength continued into March in 22 of those years and the full year was up 29 times. The record further improves when examining the data since 1950. This is the earliest year we consider to represent the beginning of the modern era. Since 1950, S&P 500 has advanced 19 out of 26 times in March following gains in January and February and was positive for the full year 25 out of 26. Average March gains in all 26 years were 1.4% while the full-year averaged 19.5%.

    March: Lamb or Lion?
    Posted by lplresearch


    “March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb.”

    The age-old saying refers to the weather, which can start off cold and snowy sometimes, but usually ends with warm spring days. March is known for many things, from spring training, to the NCAA tournament, to spring flowers, to consistent equity gains? That’s right, over the past 10 years, there hasn’t been a month for the S&P 500 with a higher average monthly return than March.

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    Here’s a chart we shared about March in our recent Weekly Economic Commentary:

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    Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “March has been strong for the S&P 500, ranking as the fourth-best month of the year since 1950.* Adding the fact it has been the best-performing month for the past 10 years, seasonality sides with the bulls in the near term. Importantly, we don’t blindly follow seasonality, nor does it always work. Still, be aware the next two months are historically two of the strongest months for equities.”

    A few other stats:

    • When the first two months of the year have been higher, March has closed higher 19 of 26 times (73.1%) and has been up an average of 1.4%.
    • The S&P 500 is set to close up four consecutive months once February is in the books. When the S&P 500 has been up four or more months heading into March, then March actually has become stronger, as since 1950, it has closed higher 11 of 13 times (84.6%) with an average return of 2.3%.
    • Looking at post-election years, March falls right near the middle as the sixth-best month, up 0.6% on average and higher 50% of the time.

    Why Stocks Up In January And February Have Bulls Smiling
    Posted by lplresearch


    It has been a great start to 2017, with the S&P 500 up nearly 6% year to date and both January and February higher. As we detailed last month, when January has been higher the rest of the year (so the next 11 months) has been higher 88% of the time. Now with February officially in the books, we’ll take a look at what it means when a new year starts off with both months higher.

    For starters, since 1950,* the S&P 500 was higher the first two months of the year 26 other times. The rest of the year (so next 10 months) was higher 24 of those times, and the entire year was up 25 times. In fact, the only full year that was “down” was 2011, but just by 0.0025%. On a total return basis though it was higher, so one could argue that since 1950, the full year has never been lower on a total return basis when the first two months have been higher. In fact, the average year has been up 19.5% for the full year when the first two months have been higher. Bodes well for 2017 to not spiral out of control and turn into a bear markets, doesn’t it?

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    Here’s the catch: Momentum works both ways, as when the first two months have been lower, the rest of the year (so the final 10 months) has been up only 2.3% on average (with a median drop of 3.8%) and higher only 43.8% of the time.

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    Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “It is clear that a good start to the year tends to set the tone for the rest of the year. Of course, this won’t always work, but what does appear to happen most of the time is when the S&P 500 has been higher in both January and February, market strength for the rest of the year has been perfectly normal. Even more important though is that a major bear market taking place later in 2017 (after the early year strength) would be very rare.”

    Last, here’s a nice chart of all 26 times when the S&P 500 was higher in January and February. The bottom line is it would be rare for the S&P 500 to see a significant pullback or even trade negative year to date from here on out. We aren’t saying it can’t happen, but history would suggest that would be rare.

    [​IMG]
     
  6. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    The Bespoke Report — “Sell The…”
    Mar 3, 2017

    The screen below is one of many graphics included in our just-published Bespoke Report newsletter (included weekly with all of our membership packages). It shows the recent performance of various asset classes using our key ETF matrix. Note that every one of the major US index ETFs shown in the first section of the left column is now up 10%+ since the election last November. The Financial sector (XLF) is now up 24.91%, which is the best ETF in the entire matrix.

    Have a great weekend!

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    Bullish Sentiment Lower: What Else is New?
    Mar 2, 2017

    Even though the DJIA just saw its longest streak of daily gains in three decades and US equities had their best day of the year on Wednesday, individual investors still want little to do with the stock market. According to AAII, bullish sentiment for the latest week declined from 38.46% down to 37.91%. This is the seventh straight week that bullish sentiment was below 40%, and a record 113 weeks that bulls have failed to take a majority.

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    While bullish sentiment declined, bearish sentiment rose up to 35.62%, which is just two percentage points lower than bullish sentiment. Also, as shown in the chart below, bearish sentiment has been steadily trending higher after hitting a seven-month low in late November.

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    Sixth Best Start to March on Record
    Mar 2, 2017

    The S&P 500’s 1.37% gain yesterday was the sixth best start to March (1st trading day of the month) in the index’s history. Below is a quick table highlighting all 1%+ gains on the first trading day of March for the S&P 500 since 1928.

    You might not remember, but stocks started off last March with a bang as well. The S&P was up 2.39% to start March 2016, and the index went on to gain another 4.11% for the remainder of the month. Prior to last year, 2010 was the last time the S&P gained more than 1% to start March, and just like 2016, the S&P gained another 4%+ for the remainder of the month. Including this year, the S&P has seen gains of 1%+ on the first trading day of March thirteen times (out of 90 years total). In the prior 12 years, the S&P averaged a decline of 0.15% for the remainder of the month. But that average decline is significantly impacted by the 25.8% decline seen for the remainder of March 1938. If you take the median instead of the average, the rest-of-month change is +1.38%. In the 77 other years where the S&P didn’t start March with a 1%+ gain, the index has seen a median rest-of-month gain of 1%.

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  7. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3.5.17 - How to Understand the Market
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek


    Stock Market Analysis for Week Ending 3.3.17
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon
     
  8. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Stockaholics come join us in our weekly market poll and vote where you think the markets will end this upcoming week ahead!-
    In addition we have our weekly stock picking challenge now up and running as well!-
    We also now have a daily stock picking & market direction guessing challenge running here!-
    We also have an SPX price target poll up. Where do you think the SPX goes from here? 2450 or 2300 first?
    And finally we have a Fed poll now up and running as well. Will the FOMC raise rates at their next meeting in March?-
    It would be pretty awesome to see some of you join us and participate on these.

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  9. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the earnings chart posted in here as well once it's ready)

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 3.6.17 Before Market Open:
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    Monday 3.6.17 After Market Close:
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    Tuesday 3.7.17 Before Market Open:
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    Tuesday 3.7.17 After Market Close:
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    Wednesday 3.8.17 Before Market Open:
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    Wednesday 3.8.17 After Market Close:
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    Thursday 3.9.17 Before Market Open:
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    Thursday 3.9.17 After Market Close:
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    Friday 3.10.17 Before Market Open:
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    Friday 3.10.17 After Market Close:
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  10. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Here is the updated pullback levels for the major indices as of this week for *IF* this market actually decides to pullback greater than 1% :rolleyes:

    [​IMG]
     
  11. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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  12. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    This Monday March 6th will mark the 8-year anniversary of the bull market (on an intraday basis).

    Here's a video that I had captured and uploaded to YouTube some years ago that takes you back to that very day-



    Happy 8-years bull market. :p
     
  13. Baggi

    Baggi Active Member

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    The Fed will keep raising rates.

    The fake news will keep trying to bring down this Presidency.

    The rioters and the protesters will turn it all up to an 11.

    And working all together, they'll manage to bring down this bull market.
     
  14. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Strong Seasonal History for Select Cyclical Sectors in March
    Posted by lplresearch

    Searching for seasonal patterns in history can be a useful additional tool when analyzing sector performance and looking for a new idea. Here in March, we are encouraged by four sectors’ seasonal tendency to outperform the S&P 500 Index: energy, financials, consumer discretionary, and industrials. This relative outperformance stands out in our review of the last 20 years of S&P 500 returns in March, a month in which the index has on average generated positive returns 65% of the time.

    The S&P 500’s average price change for March has been 1.8%, with a best return of 9.7% and a worst return of -6.4% since 1997. Comparing the price performance of an underlying sector or industry group with the broad-based index over a specific period can help identify potentially strong seasonal performers. However, performance is often driven by factors other than seasonality. There is no guarantee that historically strong performing sectors will continue to be strong, and even those sectors that are seasonally strong on average will have underperforming years.

    The sectors and industry groups that have outperformed the S&P 500 in March on average since 1997 are highlighted in green in the table below; those that underperformed the index are highlighted in red.

    [​IMG]

    Let’s take a closer look at three areas of historical S&P 500 sector relative strength over the past 20 years.

    Energy Sector Has Outperformed S&P 500 by Average of 1.3% Since 1997

    The energy sector has outperformed the S&P 500 in March by an average of 1.3%, with a high return of 10.3% and a low return of -6.3%. Digging deeper, the S&P 500 oil and gas industry index has outperformed the S&P 500 by 1.4% in March on average, with a high of 9.5% and a low of -5.3%.

    Financial Sector Has Outperformed Broad-Based Stocks by Average of 0.9% Since 1997

    The financials sector has also tended to outperform broad-based stocks during this period. The S&P 500 financial sector has outperformed by an average of 0.9%, with a high of 8.4% and a low of -3.1% since 1997. The S&P 500 consumer finance industry group outperformed the equity benchmark by 2.1% on average, with a high of 10.8% and a low of -7%.

    Consumer Discretionary Sector Has Outperformed Broad-Based Stocks by Average of 0.7% Since 1997

    Consumer discretionary has outperformed the S&P 500 by 0.7% on average, with a high of 3.2% and a low of -3.6% since 1997. Notably, the S&P 500 retailing industry group outperformed the equity benchmark by 1.9% on average, with a high of 8.3% and a low of -5.7%.

    Industrial Sector Has Outperformed Broad-Based Stocks by Average of 0.7% Since 1997

    Last, but certainly not least, the industrial sector has outperformed the S&P 500 by 0.7% on average, with a high of 3.8% and a low of -2.1% since 1997. We note that the S&P 500 building products industry group outperformed the equity benchmark by 3.9% on average, with a high of 24.9% and a low of -5.5%. In addition, the S&P 500 airlines industry group on average outperformed the equity benchmark by 2.6%, with a high of 15% and a low of -11%.

    As always, please stay tuned to the LPL Research blog for continued reviews of S&P 500 seasonal patterns and data in the months ahead.
     
  15. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    The SPX could reach 100 consecutive trading days w/o a -1% close this week. Friday marked the 98th day. This would be the first time we've hit triple digits on this particular streak in at least 22 years.
     
  16. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Good morning Stockaholics! Happy Monday. Hope you all had a nice relaxing weekend in here and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)

    Here are your pre-market stock movers & news on this Monday morning-
    Hope you all have an awesome trading day & week ahead! Happy 8yr bull market anniversary today. :p
     
  17. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Good morning Cy!

    Ready for a new week!
     
  18. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Its been 8yrs?

    Wow, feels like longer!
     
  19. Baggi

    Baggi Active Member

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    Feels like 8 years straight up.
     
  20. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Have we had a bearish call from Dr Doom this month yet?

    If not, here it is! :D

    When selling starts in markets, it'll trigger an 'avalanche'
    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/26/when...tll-trigger-an-avalanche-marc-faber-says.html


    [​IMG]
    Stock market rally is overextended: Marc Faber Friday, 24 Feb 2017 | 12:16 PM ET | 01:53


    The man often hailed as the original 'Dr. Doom' is warning investors that the U.S. stock market is vulnerable to a seismic sell-off—one that could start any time in a very unassuming way.

    Marc Faber, the editor of "The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report," predicted the rally's disruption won't be caused by any single catalyst. His argument: Stocks are very overbought and sentiment is way too bullish for the so-called Trump rally to continue.

    "Very simply, the market starts to go down. As it goes down, it will start triggering selling, and then it will be like an avalanche," said Faber recently on "Futures Now." "I would underweight U.S. stocks."

    Faber, a supporter of President Donald Trump, isn't blaming the new administration for his bearish forecast.

    "One man alone, he cannot make 'America great again.' That you have to realize," he said. "Trump, unlike Mr. Reagan, is facing huge, huge headwinds — including a debt to GDP that is gigantic, as it is in other countries."
     

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