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Stock Market Today: November 19th - 23rd, 2018

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Nov 16, 2018.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of November 19th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]


    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]


    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]


    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Earnings: Intuit, L Brands, Urban Outfitters, Agilent, JD.com, Xiaomi

    9:40 a.m. New York Fed President John Williams

    10:00 a.m. NAHB survey

    10:45 a.m. New York Fed's Williams

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: Lowe's, Medtronic, TJX, Campbell Soup, Best Buy, Target,Kohl's, Analog Devices, Autodesk, Barnes and Noble, Foot Locker, Hormel, BJ's Wholesale

    8:30 a.m. Housing starts

    8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Deere, Cheetah Mobile, Qudian

    8:30 a.m. Jobless claims

    8:30 a.m. Durable goods

    10:00 a.m. Existing home sales

    10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment

    • Thursday

    Thanksgiving holiday

    • Friday

    9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI

    9:45 a.m. Services PMI
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Crude & Credit Crash, Stocks Slide As Bonds See Best Week In 19 Months
    Well that another week... "are you not entertained?"



    China had an exuberant week (as the rest of the world limped lower) led by Shenzhen and CHINEXT (the small cap/tech indices)...

    [​IMG]



    European Stocks were lower on the week, led by Italy...

    [​IMG]



    Early dovish comments from The Fed's Clarida sent the USD and TSY yields lower and stocks higher, then Trump comments on China were thoroughly embraced by equity algos but not FX or bond markets...

    [​IMG]




    US Futures show the Clarida jump and the Trump jump and the late-Friday jump...

    [​IMG]



    Late-day weakness spoiled the fun for the day...Nasdaq dropped into red along with Trannies...

    [​IMG]



    On the week, only Trannies managed to close green...

    [​IMG]



    Materials and Real Estate managed gains and Utes scrambled to unchanged on the week...

    [​IMG]



    Nvidia made the headlines as the crypto-collapse hit demand and sent the stock from being up 50% YTD to down 15% YTD in a few weeks...

    [​IMG]



    Credit markets crashed notably this week (impacted by GE's collapse)... with IG spreads blowing out 10bps - the biggest weekly spread widening since Feb 2016...

    [​IMG]



    Signaling more pain to come for stocks...

    [​IMG]



    Treasuries were well bid all week - especially in the belly...

    [​IMG]



    Notably the longer-end of the curve steepened notably this week...

    [​IMG]



    10Y Yields broke through the 50DMA...

    [​IMG]



    5Y yields plunge 15bps on the week - the biggest drop since April 2017 (after worst week since September 2017) - blowing back below 3.00% to close at 2-month low yields...

    [​IMG]

    NOTE - 7Y yield also closed below 3.00% for the first time since September 17th.

    And before we leave the rates markets, it is notable that the market is rapidly losing faith in The Fed - 2019 rate-hike expectations (red) have collapsed, and 2020 and 2021 are now expected flat or a modest rate cut...

    [​IMG]



    The Dollar Index broke below a key level this week - 97...

    [​IMG]



    While Yuan strengthened against the USD... (note today's spike after Trump's trade comments)

    [​IMG]



    Yuan weakened notably in the last few days against gold...(seemingly drawn back to its latest peg around 8500 Yuan per ounce)

    [​IMG]



    Cryptos had an ugly week as, among other things, Bitcoin Cash fork uncertainty sparked derisking...

    [​IMG]



    Copper bounced today after Trump trade comments, PMs managed to hold the week's gains but WTI plunged...

    [​IMG]



    Of course, all the big headlines were taken by crude, which is down for the 6th week in a row, crashing to a $54 handle and its lowest level since Nov 2017...

    [​IMG]



    And as WTI plunged, NatGas super-spiked...

    [​IMG]



    While all eyes were on WTI, Canadian Western Select Crude crashed to a record low...

    [​IMG]



    It seems that 5 ounces of silver is just too rich in this new regime for a barrel of oil...

    [​IMG]



    Gold spiked above its 50- and 100-DMA this week...

    [​IMG]



    Just as credit is flashing red, so are commodity markets - most notably, Lumber...

    [​IMG]



    Finally, we note that monetary policy divergence is at a major turning point that has not worked out well in the past...

    [​IMG]

    And, just in case you were banking on buybacks bringing your bullish portfolio back to life, consider this...

    [​IMG]
     
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

    After two significant corrections during 2018, this has to be the beginning of a “bear market,” right?

    It certainly is possible given the headwinds that are starting to weigh on corporate outlooks such as ongoing trade wars, weaker revenue growth, a strong dollar, and higher interest rates. However, despite these concerns, there are three things which suggest the necessary psychological change for a more meaningful “mean reverting” event has yet to occur.

    Interest Rates

    During previous market declines, where “fear” was a prevalent factor among investors, money rotated from “risk” to “safety” which pushed Treasury bond prices higher and rates lower. Despite two fairly strong corrections in 2018, bonds have not attracted the “flight to safety” as investors remain complacent about the future prospects of the market.

    [​IMG]


    Sorry, the video player failed to load.(Error Code: 101104)

    VIX

    A look at the Volatility Index (VIX) confirms the same as the bond market. Despite the two corrections, the VIX never spiked to levels consistent with “fear” that a correction was in process. Currently, the VIX remains below the average level of the index going back to 1995 and during the “October massacre” failed to even rise above the level seen in February of this year.

    [​IMG]

    Gold

    Another “fear trade” which has failed to show any fear is that precious yellow metal. Again, despite two major corrections, gold has failed to find buyers in a “safe haven” trade. In fact, despite consistent calls that gold was needed to offset inflation, it has failed to find any support from investors who continue to chase market returns.

    [​IMG]

    Here is the point – the pickup in volatility this year should have dislodged investors out of their “passive investment slumber.” Yet, there is no anecdotal evidence that such has been the case. There are two possible outcomes from this current situation:


    1. The majority of investors are correct in assuming the two recent corrections are just that and the bull market will resume its bullish trajectory, or;

    2. Investors have misread the corrections this year and have simply not yet lost enough capital to spark the flight to safety rotations.
    Historically speaking, the “herd” tends to be right in the middle of the advance at very wrong at the major turning points.

    There is mounting evidence that we may indeed be at the beginning of one of those turning points in the market. If that is the case, investors are likely going to find themselves once again on the wrong side of history.

    The “real” bear market hasn’t started yet. When it does we will likely see traditional “safe haven” investments telling us so. It will be worth watching gold and rates for clues as to when the masses begin to realize that “this time is indeed different.”

    Just something to think about as you catch up on your weekend reading list.

    Economy & Fed
    Markets
    Most Read On RIA
    Watch
    Interview with Mike “Mish” Shedlock





    Research / Interesting Reads
    “Treat their incessant optimism, in the future, with skepticism. Watch what they do not what they say.” – Doug Kass
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2018-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Thanksgiving Market Returns
    Nov 16, 2018

    Thanksgiving week has historically been a positive time for the equity market. Since WWII, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 0.64% during Thanksgiving week with gains three-quarters of the time. Market trends heading into this Thanksgiving aren’t as positive for the bulls, though. As shown in the table below, during years where the S&P 500 was positive but up less than 5% YTD heading into Thanksgiving week, the index’s average change during the week has been 0.00% with gains less than half of the time.

    [​IMG]

    On a day to day basis, for both all years since WWII and in years where the S&P 500 was up less than 5% heading into Thanksgiving week, Monday has been the worst trading day as it is the only day of the week with negative average returns and positive returns less than half of the time. Tuesdays and Friday, however, have been positive days, though, with average gains of 0.10% and 0.29%, respectively. Additionally, for those years where the S&P 500 was up YTD but up less than 5%, Tuesdays and Fridays have been even stronger with average gains of 0.26% and 0.35%, respectively.

    [​IMG]

    As we move past Thanksgiving, though, seasonal trends for the market based on this year’s performance so far improve. In those years where the S&P 500 was up less than 5% YTD heading into Thanksgiving week, the average gains the week after Thanksgiving was 0.41% with positive returns 55% of the time. For the remainder of the year, average returns were even stronger at +2.83%. Not bad for a period of just over five weeks!

    [​IMG]

    Economic Indicators This Week and Next — 11/16/18
    Nov 16, 2018

    This week was mixed for economic data with about half of indicators coming in positive and the other half negative. The major release early in the week was CPI data. The headline number came in line with expectations while Core CPI came in slightly lower YoY. Hourly earnings continued to accelerate; more confirmation of a tight labor market. Thursday was the busiest day of the week. Retail sales came in with a healthy beat. Also on Thursday, the first two of our five Fed manufacturing indices came in with Empire beating and Philly missing, but the internals were stronger. Today, we got one more of the five with Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index beating estimates. Along with higher manufacturing production, we should expect a slight uptick in the ISM PMI for October, as we mentioned in Thursday’s Closer.

    [​IMG]

    Next week will be a quiet one for economic data due to the Thanksgiving holiday. The first half of the week is all housing with the only release on Monday being the NAHB’s Housing Market Index, but more housing data follows Tuesday and Wednesday with housing starts, permits, and mortgage applications. Manufacturing data also releases Wednesday with transportation expected to drag down durable goods. Nothing will release on Thursday on account of Thanksgiving, but we cap off Friday with preliminary manufacturing and services PMIs.

    As always you can check in on our Economic Monitor to get updated on the day’s economic releases.

    [​IMG]

    Let’s Talk Volatility
    Posted by lplresearch

    After the least volatile third quarter for the S&P 500 Index since 1963, volatility has come back in a big way over the past six weeks. One of the big themes from Outlook 2018: Return of the Business Cycle was to expect significantly more volatility this year versus what we saw in 2017.


    “Last year we saw the S&P 500 change at least 1% (up or down) only eight times—one of the least volatile years ever. Well, so far this year we’ve seen that number jump up to 50. One thing is for sure, markets don’t stay calm forever, and we are seeing that in 2018,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick.

    As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, the average year actually has 50 1% changes— which makes this year maybe not as extreme as some might think. Of course, many of the 1% moves this year have come in bunches, making things seem worse.

    [​IMG]

    So this year feels really volatile, but would you believe it is actually one of the tightest trading ranges we’ve seen in years? Yes, there are still seven weeks to go before the year is over (so this could change), but as of now, the S&P 500 has traded in a range of only 13.6% from the February closing low to the September peak. This is about half the 27% average range for all years going back to 1950.

    [​IMG]

    S&P 500 Not the Best Economic Indicator
    [​IMG]
    On a closing basis, the S&P 500 nearly reached correction territory in late October when it declined 9.88% from its high close on September 20 to its recent low close on October 29. After bouncing higher ahead of and after Election Day, S&P 500 has fallen for four straight days and is on track for a fifth day of losses today. But, just how good of an indicator is the S&P 500? Is it really on track to forecast a U.S. or global recession in the near future? A look back at S&P 500 past track suggests about a 1 in 3 chance of recession at this point.
    [​IMG]
    First a quick review of definitions. A bear market is defined as a 20% or greater decline in the S&P 500. A correction would be a decline greater than 10% and less than 20%. Based upon these definitions every bear market begins as a correction, but not every correction becomes a bear market. As of today, the S&P 500 is not yet even in a correction. To be in a correction it would need to close below 2637.67.

    Since June 15, 1948 there have been 11 S&P 500 bear markets and 24 corrections. Excluding the current pullback from the tally there have been 35 declines in excess of 10%. However, the National Bureau of Economic Research has only identified 11 recessions over the same time period. This works out to less than 1 recession for every 3 S&P 500 declines in excess of 10%.

    Current market weakness could manifest into a full blown bear market, but economic data, corporate earnings and consumer sentiment would need to deteriorate significantly. Currently forecasts are looking for a slowing in growth as the initial effects of tax cuts and deficit spending wane, but corporate profits are not expected to decline, only slow their pace of growth. A slower pace of gains from the market would likely result.

    Small Caps On Sale: Seasonal Bounce Ahead?
    [​IMG]
    There has been a good deal of rhetoric lately as to how small caps have underperformed badly recently. On closer examination however small caps have actually performed right in line with historical seasonal patterns (yes, the magnitude of the moves have been greater) and they appear poised for their usual seasonal breakout which tends to begin in late-November, but does not fully get underway until mid-December.

    The chart below taken from page 110 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2018 shows the one-year seasonal pattern of the ratio of the Russell 2000 to the Russell 1000 from July through June to highlight the perennial low point of this relationship, November and the winter rally mentioned above.
    [​IMG]
    We have added the performance of this ratio in 2018 so far through today’s close and updated the historical average pattern through June 30, 2018. While this year’s pattern has more amplitude, the trend is quite similar to the historical pattern. Small caps underperformed from late June through mid-August, then had the usual pre Labor Day rally, followed by a customarily weak October. It now appears that small caps could be setting up nicely for their season of outperformance.
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for November 16th, 2018
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 11.18.18
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 11.16.18-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-
    [​IMG]
     
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the weekly earnings calendar posted in here as well once it's out)

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 11.19.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 11.19.18 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 11.20.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 11.20.18 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 11.21.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 11.21.18 After Market Close:
    NONE.

    Thursday 11.22.18 Before Market Open:
    NONE. (MARKETS CLOSED FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.)

    Thursday 11.22.18 After Market Close:
    NONE. (MARKETS CLOSED FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.)

    Friday 11.23.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 11.23.18 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    And as promised here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($JD $TGT $BBY $LOW $KSS $TJX $BZUN $LB $GWGH $DE $INTU $URBN $ROST $MDT $SPB $ADSK $CPB $PSTG $JT $A $ADI $LEJU $JEC $SOL $JACK $HRL $BILI $FL $GPS $GHG $BJ $BECN $QD $KEYS $DY $BRKS $NUAN $VBLT $SSI $NM $SFL $NJR $MMS $KLIC)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
  13. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Just a quick reminder to everyone in here that we have a holiday-shortened trading week ahead this week.

    The U.S. markets will be closed on this upcoming Thursday, November 22nd, 2018 for the Thanksgiving Day holiday, as well as an early closing at 1pm eastern time the following day Friday, November 23rd, 2018.

    I just wanted to take this opportunity to wish everyone on Stockaholics a very Happy Thanksgiving, as well as to all of your families and friends!

    Many thanks goes out to all of you who contribute to this forum on a daily basis, and have been all year. I cannot tell you all how much we appreciate it. Happy Turkey Day! ;)

    Here is the Globex futures holiday schedule for this upcoming week-

    [​IMG]
     
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  14. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Going short on soft drink companies. Looking for a double top in the index
    [​IMG]

    They're part of the consumer staples, I am looking for them to lag while the market rallies.
     
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  15. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  16. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Good Monday morning to all.

    Here is the pre-market thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
    [​IMG] <-- click there to read!

    Good trading to all on this holiday-shortened trading week ahead.
     
  17. Frankenstein

    Frankenstein Active Member

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    I had totally exited for profit taking and risk management at 2730 on Friday. I entered long Lot #1 at 2710 this morning
     
  18. Frankenstein

    Frankenstein Active Member

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    My theory says a test of 2730 should happen at some point. Of course, it could go higher than that. But, we'll see how things go
     
  19. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

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    This market remains very volatile :eek: We could still have a Santa Claus rally next month but probably would need a little bit of a good news from the meeting between Trump and Xi end of this month
     
  20. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    This drop in Facebook is causing a lot of damage.
     
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