Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of October 29th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: T.B.A.
Global Bloodbath: World Stocks Puke Over $8 Trillion As US Markets Collapse Aaaaaand, it's gone! Global capital markets are down five weeks in a row, losing just under $9 trillion - the biggest, fastest drop since Lehman... (around $8.2 trillion from global equity markets) Chinese stocks managed to end the week green thanks to numerous National Team interventions... European stocks ended the week red (down 4 of the last 5 weeks) to the lowest since Dec 2016... with DAX worst of all (worse than Italy)... European banks were ugly led by Deutsche... US Equity markets closed the week in the red for the year (but the rest of the world also continued to collapse)... Buy the dip and sell the rip...all major US equity indices red on the week... Another ugly open, immediate ramp fest and puke... Futures show the complete picture of chaotic lower highs and lower lows...Octoberfest... was full of dead cats The S&P 500 had dropped 15 times this month. That was the most for a full month since October 2008, when the world's biggest central banks cut interest rates and U.S. money-market funds got a bailout. It's been ugly: Dow down 9% from record high (down 4 of last 5 weeks) S&P down 10.1% from record high (down 4 of last 5 weeks) Nasdaq down 13% from record high (down 4 weeks in a row) Dow Transports down 15.2% from record high (down 6 weeks in a row) Small Caps down 15.8% from record high (down 6 weeks in a row) With all the major US equity indices languishing below their 200DMA... Only Nasdaq remains green for 2018... VIX term structure remains inverted for the 15th day and unusually has re-accelerated without normalizing)... Global Systemically Important Banks had their worst week since March, tumbling for the 5th week in a row to the lowest since Nov 2016...down 30% from their highs... FANG Stocks were hammered, worst week since March (down 4 weeks in a row) down 20% from their highs... FB -33% from highs (well below 200DMA) AMZN -19.75% from highs (closing below its 200DMA) NFLX -28.8% from highs (closing below its 200DMA) GOOGL -16.4% from highs (closing below its 200DMA) Financials are f**ked...erasing all the gains since Trump was elected... Biotech bust with the worst week since April 2016 (down 4 weeks in a row) and down 15.4% from the highs... Semis slumped 6% on the week (5th weekly drop in a row) to lowest since Sept 2017 and are down 21% from their highs... Homebuilders hemorrhaged... We note that the tech/financials relationship with Treasuries remains broken... Treasury yields tumbled today (led the belly again) as there has been a notable decoupling between the long-end (underperforming) and the belly (5s and 7s) This dramatically steepened the yield curve (5s30s steepest since April 2018).. HY Bonds puked this week... The dollar surged for the 4th week in the last 5 (despite a big reversal today), closing at its highest since May 2017... PMs managed modest gains on the week, despite dollar's gains, as copper and crude slumped... Gold rose for the 4th week in a row... Finally, we leave you with this little beauty from Deutsche Bank... Let's hope it's different this time!! However, the last word goes to Glusdkin Sheff's David Rosenberg... David Rosenberg@EconguyRosie Go ahead, blame Powell. Don't tell anyone that foreign buying of Treasury debt has been cut in half this year and keep it a secret that the dollar share of world FX reserves has shrunk to a 5-year low of 62.5%. The USD role as the reserve currency is on its last legs. 8:20 AM - Oct 24, 2018
Spoiler: Weekend Reading: Recession Risks Rising Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, In yesterday’s post, we discussed the importance of the S&P 500 as a leading indicator of recessions in the U.S. “The problem with making an assessment about the state of the economy today, based on current data points, is that these numbers are “best guesses” about the economy currently. However, economic data is subject to substantive negative revisions in the future as actual data is collected and adjusted over the next 12-months and 3-years. Consider for a minute that in January 2008 Chairman Bernanke stated: ‘The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.’ In hindsight, the NBER called an official recession that began in December of 2007.” My friend David Stockman from Stockman’s ContraCorner (a must-read site) sent me an email on Thursday morning stating: “On your topic of today regarding recession recognition, here’s another point about after-the-fact revisions. NF payrolls were revised down by about 500,000 per month during the September-February 2008 plunge:” The point here is that while CURRENT economic data points are positive, there are numerous ancillary data points which suggest the economy is already weakening. My colleague, Richard Rosso, sent me this note on the Fed’s alternative GDP calculation called GDP Plus: “GDPplus is the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s measure of the quarter-over-quarter rate of growth of real output in continuously compounded annualized percentage points. It improves on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s expenditure-side and income-side measures. Currently, it is showing GDP at 4.0% annual growth with both GDI and GDP-Plus running at 2.0% or less.” Historically, when GDP has deviated above both GDP-Plus and GDI, GDP has eventually “caught-down” with the rest of the data. Currently, it is currently believed that the U.S. can remain an island of economic growth in a world struggling with weakness. As shown in the Ned Davis Research chart below, recession risk on a global scale has now surged above 70. What does that mean? “Readings above 70 have found us in recession 92.11% of the time (1970 to present). Several months ago, the model score stood at 61.3. It has just moved to 80.04. Expect a global recession. It either has begun or will begin shortly. Though no guarantee, as 7.89% of the time since 1970 when the global economic indicators that make up this model were above 70, a recession did not occur.” – Stephen Blumenthal As we discussed yesterday, the dynamics of the market have now changed in a manner which suggests that “something has broken” in both the outlook for the economy and earnings. While we have had corrections in the past, those corrections have not violated important long-term trends which have remained solidly intact since the 2009 lows. However, this past week, those violations began to occur. Over the long-term, trends are important to consider. The chart below shows the market versus a 75-week moving average. During bullish trends, the market trades above that average. During bearish trends, it’s the opposite. With the market starting to violate that long-term support, it is worth paying attention to the risk of the market currently. However, this does not mean you should “panic sell” the market currently. So far, this has been an expected, while painful, pickup in volatility as we discussed in our weekly missives. Most importantly, while the risks of a more meaningful mean reversion are rising, the market does not historically go straight up or down. Therefore, the change of the market’s tone from bullish to bearish does change the trading backdrop from buying dips to selling rallies. Use rallies to reduce risk, rebalance portfolios, and raise cash for whatever happens next. If the market stabilizes, there are lots of great companies on “sale” currently. If the market declines further, you will appreciate the reduced volatility. Just something to think about as you catch up on your weekend reading list. Economy & Fed Trump’s Views On Trade Are Infiltrating Foreign Policy by Caroline Baum via MarketWatch Tariffs Caused The Crash In 1929 by Michael Markowski via BullsNBears Last 2X Economy Was This Strong, A Recession Came by Lakshman Achuthan via ZeroHedge Our Easy Money Economy Is Not Sustainable by Carmen Dorobat via The Mises Institute Europe’s Rattling Political Power PLays by Simon Constable via Korn Ferry Institute 8-Reasons A Financial Crisis Is Coming by Mike “Mish” Shedlock via MishTalk.com Caterpillar’s Tanking Stock Shows Risk To Trump Boom by Josh Barro via Intelligencer Empowering Harmful Polices At The Fedby Edward Woodson via Washington Post Are Tax Cuts Paying For Themselves? by Tim Fernholz via QZ.com America’s Inflation Risks by Stephen Roach via Project Syndicate Fed’s Restrictive Chatter Rattles Stocks by Ed Yardeni via Yardeni Research If There’s A Recession, Will It Be Trump’s Fault by Scott Sumner via The Money Illusion Markets Breslow: The Market Has Disengaged From The Real World by Tyler Durden via Zerohedge An Overview Of Markets & Economic Growth by Joe Calhoun via Alhambra Partners Why Stock Prices Could Be Higher In 6-Months by Mark Hulbert via MarketWatch Market Says 2019 Growth Estimates Are Still Too Highby Bob Pisani via CNBC The Black(Rock) Canary In A Coal Mine by Macromon via Global Macro Monitor Back To Trading Basics by Dana Lyons via The Lyons Share The Glaring Problem For U.S. Shale by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com Another Nasty Drop In S&P 500 Coming by Mark DeCambre via MarketWatch Is There More Trouble Ahead For Stocks by Jeffrey Kleintop via Charles Schwab America Is Not An Island by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist Would You Be Prepared For A 5700 Point Drop by Nigam Arora via MarketWatch “Unlimited Downside Risk” by JC Parets via AllStar Charts Most Read On RIA Is The Market Predicting A Recession? by Lance Roberts Higher Rates Are Crushing Investors by Michael Lebowitz The #MAGA Market Trendline Is Broken by Jesse Colombo An Open Letter To Larry Kudlow by Doug Kass Average Stock Is Overvalued: Between Tremendously & Enormously by Vitaliy Katsenelson Fed’s Survey Of Economic Un-Well Being by Richard Rosso An Investor’s Desktop Guide To Trading by Lance Roberts Research / Interesting Reads JPM: Expect $7.4 Trillion In ETF Selling In Next Downturn by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge The Big Blockchain Lie by Nouriel Roubini via Project Syndicate What’s Wrong With 2% Inflation Target by Paul Volcker via Bloomberg Inside S&P 500, Most Stocks Already In Correction by Noel Randewich via Reuters Real Retirement Crisis Is High Cost Of Low Risk by Allison Schrager via Quartz Deutsche Bank: After The Pullback by Deutsche Bank Siegel Vs Shiller: Is The Market Overvalued? by David Hay via Evergreen Gavekal The George Costanza Portfolio by Cliff Asness via AQR Capital Management TSLA: Every Trick From Every Fraud To Put Lipstick On The Pig by Adventures In Capitalism Not All Corrections Become Bear Markets by Sue Chang via MarketWatch “Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected..” – George Soros
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2018- S&P sectors for the past week-
When Do Markets Get Volatile? Posted by lplresearch After the S&P 500 Index’s least volatile third quarter since 1963, October has ushered in a wave of volatility: Daily moves in excess of 1% now feel like the norm. Here’s what you need to know about volatility: It tends to happen when the S&P 500 is in a downtrend and beneath the 200-day moving average. For example, the S&P 500 gained more than 7.0% in the third quarter and did not gain more than 1% in a single day. In contrast, the S&P 500 has gained more than 1% three times already this month, but it is still down 7.2% so far in October. The 200-day moving average is simply the average close of the previous 200-day trading days. This is a long-term trendline that many investors use to determine if stocks are in an uptrend or downtrend, but history has shown that the most volatility tends to happen beneath this trendline. “Big moves tend to happen beneath the 200-day moving average,” said LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “In fact, 23 of the 25 largest one-day rallies for the S&P 500 took place beneath the 200-day moving average.” As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, the majority of the largest gains and losses took place beneath the 200-day moving average. With the S&P 500 currently beneath this important trendline, more volatility could be in store for investors. Five Takeaways on October’s Rough Ride Posted by lplresearch October has been a rough month for equities, but then again it’s historically been one of the most volatile periods of the year. “October is known for volatility, and we’ve sure seen it so far,” explained Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “In fact, by many measures, October is poised to be one of the worst months in years. The S&P 500 Index has had two separate six-day losing streaks this month for the first time in history. That pretty much sums it up.” Here are five takeaways from October’s action so far: The bad news. The S&P 500 is down 8.8% month to date, which would make this the worst month since February 2009 and the worst October since 2008 if it finishes the month at its current level. After not posting a daily move of more than 1% throughout the entire third quarter for the first time since 1963, this month has already seen six days out of 18 (33%) close at least 1% higher or lower. The S&P 500 has been down 14 days so far in October, the most for any month since May 2012. Also, 78% of the days this month have closed in the red (14 of 18), the worst for any month since 82% of days in April 1970 closed down. Now, for some good news. Since 1950, there have been seven other years when the S&P 500 was positive year-to-date at the end of September, but fell negative year to date at some point during the month of October. The final two months of those years were higher six times and up 4.1% on average. Historically, the last few days of October have been some of the strongest of the year. With markets looking extremely oversold, the stage could be set for a rally. November Kicks Off the “Best Months” November maintains its status among the top performing months as fourth-quarter cash inflows from institutions drive November to lead the best consecutive three-month span November-January. The month has taken hits during bear markets and November 2000, down –22.9% (undecided election and a nascent bear), was NASDAQ’s second worst month on record—only October 1987 was worse. November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months” for NASDAQ. Small caps come into favor during November, but don’t really take off until the last two weeks of the year. November is the number-three DJIA (since 1950) and NASDAQ (since 1971) month. November is second best for S&P 500 (since 1950) and Russell 2000 (since 1979). November is the Russell 1000’s best month (since 1979). In midterm years, November’s market prowess is relatively unchanged. DJIA has advanced in 13 of the last 17 midterm years since 1950 with an average gain of 2.5%. S&P 500 has also been up in 13 of the past 17 midterm years, gaining on average 2.6%. Small-caps perform well with Russell 2000 climbing in 6 of the past 9 midterm years, averaging 3.5%. The only real blemish in the November midterm-year record is 1974 (DJIA –7.0%, bear market ended in December). Not a subscriber? Sign up today for a Free 7-Day Trial to Almanac Investor to continue reading our latest market analysis and trading recommendations. Get a full run down of seasonal tendencies that occur throughout each month of the year in an easy-to-read calendar graphic with important economic release dates highlighted, Daily Market Probability Index bullish and bearish days, market trends around options expiration and holidays. In addition, the Monthly Vital Statistics Table combines stats for the Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 and puts them all in a single location available at the click of a mouse. Normal October Volatility Continues The recent spell of 2-3% daily market moves has many concerned that this could turn into something more sinister or bearish. That is always a concern and still possible, but it does not appear to be highly likely at this time. Current market action is less tame than it has been over the past several months and years, but the quantity and magnitude of these larger daily moves is minor and not indicative of a deeper downdraft. Hat Tip to the folks at TradeNavigtor.com and Genesis Financial Technologies, especially Heath in tech support for help with these charts and having the software to do it easily. For the past several months we have often heard investors and commentators saying, “Sell in May did not work this year and it hasn’t worked for the past several years” or “Sell in May is dead.” Not true. Everyone forgot about October. We always are leery of October. In response to our post last week on “What Happened Last Time We Had 2% Moves?”, we looked back further to 1997 and found that mild clusters of 2-3% daily market moves like the current one, have occurred around mild corrections, as we had from late January to early April 2018, and “mini-bears” like we had from August 2015 to February 2016. Just compare the image up top of the past two years of the S&P 500 with daily moves of +/- 2% highlighted in blue with the images below of 2015-2016 and 2007-2008 and you can clearly see that what is going on right now does not compare with the more alarming rate of big daily moves at more negative market junctures. This is October, this is normal. VIX is still relatively calm. Sentiment has come off its high horse and fundamentals remain supportive. Yes we are having some rather typical midterm election politicking and there are some geopolitical, diplomatic and trade concerns, but from our historical vantage point and current analysis our outlook remains positive for the next several months for the “Sweet Spot” of the 4-Year cycle, and in fact this sell off makes it more attractive and sets us up for an excellent MACD buy trigger for our Best Six Months Seasonal Buy Signal. Expect some more churning and selling and rallying over the next several days and weeks as the market finds support and wait patiently for technical confirmation and our buy signal before allocating fresh capital to the long side or coming off the sidelines and getting less defensive as we have been for several months. Prosperity More than Peace Determines Outcome of Midterm Congressional Races Historically, the President’s party will lose a number of House seats in these elections (1934, 1998 and 2002 were exceptions). It is considered a victory for the President when his party loses a small number of seats and a repudiation of sorts when a large percentage of seats is lost. The table below would seem to indicate that there is no relationship between the stock market’s behavior in the ten months prior to the midterm election and the magnitude of seats lost in the House. Roaring bull markets preceded the elections of 1954 and 1958, yet Republicans lost few seats during one, and a huge number in the other. If the market does not offer a clue to the outcome of House races, does anything besides the popularity and performance of the Administration? Yes! In the two years prior to the elections in the first ten midterm years listed, no war or major recession began. As a result, the percentage of House seats lost was minimal. A further observation is that the market gained ground in the last seven weeks of the year, except 2002. Our five major wars began under four Democrats and one Republican in the shaded area. The percentage of seats lost was greater during these midterm elections. But the eight worst repudiations of the President are at the bottom of the list. These were preceded by: the sick economy in 1930, the botched health proposals in 1994, the severe recession in 1937, the post-war contraction in 1946, the recession in 1957, financial crisis and the second worst bear market in history from 2007 to 2009, Watergate in 1974, and rumors of corruption (Teapot Dome) in 1922. Obviously, prosperity is of greater importance to the electorate than peace! Source: Stock Trader’s Almanac 2018, page 32. Octoberphobia Presses Market’s Reset Button In the month or so since these charts were last updated, the market has undergone a swift pullback in typical seasonal fashion, in October. As of today’s close, DJIA is up just 2.4% year-to-date. S&P 500 is fractionally better at 3.1%. NASDAQ is doing best, as it has been for the majority of the year, up 8.2%. DJIA’s performance is just above its historical average midterm year at this time of the year. S&P 500 is also just above its average midterm performance while NASDAQ is currently well above average for midterm and sitting right above its average in all years. The current pullback, during the “Worst Six Months” of the year, May through October, does have a something of a silver lining. Whether it was triggered by the Fed and interest rates or not, the pullback has caused valuations to retreat and become more attractive and frothy levels of bullish sentiment have also eased. Provided economic data remains firm, corporate profits continue to beat and the Fed continues to toe the line, then this pullback is likely to end up being a launching pad for a solid fourth quarter/yearend rally. Lots of New Lows Oct 23, 2018 While most didn’t finish near those levels, a lot of stocks in the S&P 500 hit 52-week lows today. For the S&P 500 as a whole, 17.6% of stocks in the index traded down to their lowest levels in at least a year. The last time we saw that many stocks trade at new lows in unison with each other was way back in February 2016. Anyone know if Jamie Dimon is planning to buy some more stock in JPMorgan right about now? The chart below shows the net percentage of stocks in each S&P 500 sector that hit 52-week lows today. Leading the way down the tubes was the Materials sector where half of the stocks in the sector made an appearance on the new low list. The last time the Materials sector saw a larger percentage of new lows was back in August 2015 during the last China devaluation. Behind Materials, Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials all saw at least 20% of the stocks in their sector hit 52-week lows on Tuesday, and for all three sectors, it was the greatest percentage of new lows for each sector since early 2016. So which stocks hitting new lows are the furthest from their 52-week highs? The table below lists the ‘unlucky 13’ stocks in the S&P 500 that hit 52-week lows today and are also down more than 40% from their 52-week highs. Topping the list, shares of Newell Brands (NWL) are down a 60% from their 52-week high of $41.31. Behind NWL, Coty (COTY) is the only other stock down more than 50%, but among the other elven stocks there are a number of well-known names like Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Applied Materials (AMAT), Lennar (LEN), and Micron (MU) that are all down over 40%. Remember, for a stock that is down 50% to get back to even, it has to double, while a stock like NWL that is down 60% has to rally 150%! 2018 Dogs of the Dow Oct 22, 2018 Below is a check-up on the performance of the “Dogs of the Dow” strategy so far in 2018. For those unfamiliar with the strategy, it’s a simple portfolio allocation and re-balance at the start of each year into the 10 highest yielding stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. As shown in the table, the 2018 Dogs are currently up an average of 4.77% YTD on a total return basis compared to a total return of 5.11% for the 20 non-Dogs. Coming into the month, the non-Dogs were outperforming the Dogs by a much wider margin, however. With investors shifting out of cyclicals and into more defensive names, the lower-yielding non-Dogs have fallen 4.61% in October, while the Dogs are down just 0.61%. If it weren’t for IBM’s 13.91% drop this month due to another bad earnings report, the Dogs would actually be up 87 basis points MTD. Merck (MRK) and Pfizer (PFE) have been the best performing Dogs of the Dow this year with total returns of more than 25%. Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) have been the best performing non-Dogs with gains of more than 30%. If we were to re-balance the strategy now, Merck (MRK) would be removed and JP Morgan (JPM) would enter the Dogs. Note that IBM is now the highest yielding stock in the Dow at 4.82%!
Stock Market Analysis Video for October 26th, 2018 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon ShadowTrader Video Weekly 10.28.18 - Down the Rabbit Hole Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 10.26.18- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!- ======================================================================================================== Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (10/29) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote and stock pick! Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (10/29-11/2) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote and stock picks! Stockaholics November 2018 Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll <-- click there to cast your monthly market vote and stock picks! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these! I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the weekly earnings calendar posted in here as well once it's out) ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 10.29.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 10.29.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 10.30.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 10.30.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 10.31.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 10.31.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 11.1.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 11.1.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 11.2.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 11.2.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!
And as promised here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($FB $AAPL $BABA $GE $IQ $MA $BIDU $EBAY $CHK $XOM $EA $TEVA $GM $UAA $TNDM $BP $SPOT $ON $FDC $ADP $CVX $KO $AMRN $SBUX $X $ABBV $PFE $FIT $PAYC $YNDX $OLED $ABMD $WTW $ANET $WLL $LL $FEYE $DDD $RIG $SNE $KEM $NWL $STX $BAH $FTNT) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning October 29th, 2018 <-- click there to view!
One of the accounts I follow on Twitter, that I think @bigbear0083 would like https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz Tweeted this last Friday: $SPX weekly RSI(5) is on pace to close 12-13. This has only happened in bear markets: 1981, 87, 90, 2001-02, 2008. None happened 5 wks after an ATH I don't think we're going straight down to -20% though. We haven't had all the triggers for a recession yet (one of them being yield curve inverting). Thing is, as long as we don't make a new all time high, we could technically be in a bear market right now. I'm looking for us to eventually get back to 2850-2900, it may take some weeks, but that's my expectation and then I'll reassess my holdings. Want to have all preparations for a bear market done by then.
One other thing from https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz on Friday: equities have been weak (falling or going nowhere for months) after every rate hike since tightening started in 2015 One way to look at what happened in October: We just lost all the tax cut gains, that's all. We were supposed to have seasonal weakness in July-October but it all got consolidated into the last couple of weeks. Now we are supposed to be entering the best stretch of days for stocks. See how things react, and if resistances form.
Good morning to all. Here is this morning's pre-market stock movers & news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open- <-- click there to read! Hope everyone has a great trading day ahead today.
This is a post from this week's earnings thread, thought it was worth a cross-posting in here as well. Here is the list of the 40 largest companies set to report Q3 numbers this week. Table below includes the historical earnings and revenue beat rates, the percentage of the time that the company has raised guidance, and the stock’s average one-day price change in reaction to earnings.
Market still up pretty nicely but tech is just barely green now. Looks like a busy earnings and economic data week then we get the midterm next Tuesday, should be interesting for the market for the coming days
Here's a new earnings whispers chart I thought to share in here. These are the companies reporting this week that have the highest percentage increase in short interest since their last earnings release.
