Stock Market Today: September 24th - 28th, 2018

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by Stockaholic, Sep 22, 2018.

  1. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of September 24th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]


    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]


    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]


    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
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    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    U.S./China latest tariffs take effect

    • Tuesday

    FOMC begins two-day meeting

    8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing

    9:15 a.m. S&P Case/Shiller home prices

    9:15 a.m. FHFA home prices

    10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence

    • Wednesday

    10:00 a.m. New home sales

    2:00 p.m. Fed statement/projections

    2:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell briefing

    • Thursday

    8:30 a.m. Jobless claims

    8:30 a.m. Durable goods

    8:30 a.m. Q2 GDP (final reading)

    8:30 a.m. Advanced economic indicators

    10:00 a.m. Pending home sales

    2:00 p.m. Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan

    4:45 p.m. Fed Chair Jerome Powell on economy

    • Friday

    8:30 a.m. Personal income/spending

    8:30 a.m. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin

    9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI

    10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment

    4:45 p.m. New York Fed President John Williams
     
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  2. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Tariff-Tantrum, Walmart-Warning, & Dollar-Dump Spark Global Stock-Buying Panic (Except US Tech)
    Seriously...


    Chinese stocks soared higher this week (SHCOMP +4.3%) - the best week since March 2016...

    [​IMG]



    While China surged in two major National Team pumps, Europe was a one-way-street of stock-love all week...

    [​IMG]

    But US markets were a little more mixed with The Dow leading, S&P holding gains, and Nasdaq, Small Caps, & Trannies all red...

    [​IMG]



    It was quad-witch today, and a massive index reclassification, which prompted yuuge volume in stocks...the biggest NYSE Volume Day since July 2010...

    [​IMG]

    On the day, The Dow trod water rather too calmly as the rest of the market rolled over...and some serious moves into the close...

    [​IMG]

    Nasdaq broke back below 8,000...

    [​IMG]



    Dow (blue) leads the way in September (+3%) as Small Caps (red) and Nasdaq (green) remain in the red...

    [​IMG]



    US still leads the world on the year...

    [​IMG]



    FANG Stocks ended lower on the week

    [​IMG]



    Making headlines all week were the weed-stocks, as Tilray exploded higher and crashed back to earth, but the broader cannabis market (ETF MJ), had a big week...

    [​IMG]

    But it's not a bubble...

    [​IMG]



    Ahead of today's major index reclassification, the S&P Tech sector ETF (XLK) saw an unprecedented inflow (at a time when heavyweight tech growth stocks like FB and GOOGL are about to be removed from it)...

    [​IMG]



    Treasury yields rose for the 4th week in a row (longest losing streak since Feb)...

    [​IMG]



    The yield curve steepened on the week (but was well off its steepest levels by the close)...

    [​IMG]



    Notably after Tuesday's major surge in yields - back above 3.00%, 10Y Yields have largely trod water in a very narrow range...

    [​IMG]



    But 10Y remains off 2018 yield highs for now...

    [​IMG]



    The Dollar Index fell for the second straight week - the biggest two-week drop since January...

    [​IMG]

    NOTE - this week played out almost exactly like last week from a price-pattern perspective

    Cable crashed most since June 2017 today following May's "no deal" speech...

    [​IMG]



    And as the Argentine Peso soared, Cable was even worse on the day than the Turkish Lira...

    [​IMG]

    EM FX had the best week since February... back to 4-week highs...

    [​IMG]



    The Hong Kong dollar jumped by the most since October 2003 this week, with analysts citing the prospect of higher rates in the city and stop losses as possible triggers.

    [​IMG]



    Cryptocurrencies had a big week, but none bigger than altcoin Ripple, up over 100% on the week...

    [​IMG]


    Copper soared this week on China stimulus hopes but despite USD weakness, PMs managed only modest gains...

    [​IMG]



    Gold had a chaotic moment of manipulation this morning as someone decided 0845ET was the perfect time to puke $1.2 billion notional of paper gold into the futures market... Silver bounced back but gold was less able to...

    [​IMG]



    Copper had its best week since Nov 2016 (Trump election)...

    [​IMG]



    Finally, we note that U.S. stock valuations are increasingly in a world of their own...

    [​IMG]

    The gap between these indicators widened in the 12 months ended Thursday by 20 percent, more than it has in any calendar year since 1997, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

    And as stocks hit record highs in price and valuations, @ETF.com reports that a massive $34 bn poured into ETFs this week...

    [​IMG]
     
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  3. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

    An interesting thing has begun to occur in the market which is more a symptom of exuberance than prudence as there seems to be nothing that can derail the market advance to new highs. However, as Doug Kass noted recently in his diary, the ingredients to shock market participants are already in place.

    • Speculative activity is on the rise (materially so in the case of Tilray (TLRY) and others in the space).

    • Investor complacency (not a soul, save permabears, are looking for anything like a large markdown in market).

    • Rising interest rates — with the pace of the yield climb now accelerating to the upside.

    • Trade and tariff risk is rising.

    • An extreme change in the market structure — much like portfolio insurance in 1987, (ETF and Quant strategies and products dominate the market) — in which participants are all on the same side (long) of the boat.

    • Social unrest as the benefits of monetary and fiscal policies failed to trickle down.

    • Weak market seasonals.

    • Technical divergences.
    The market is currently ignoring, in my opinion, two of the biggest risks to the fundamental underpinnings of the market which are earnings growth and valuation.

    While the market has been rising on stronger rates of earnings growth, due primarily to tax cuts and share buybacks, that effect will begin to roll off in the months ahead. Tariffs and higher interest costs are a direct threat to bottom line profitability, particularly when combined with higher labor costs.

    Today, however, I want to focus on the interest rate issue as it is the biggest threat the markets currently face if rates do indeed continue to rise further.


    The following video takes a deep dive into rates and historical outcomes.

    (Subscribe to our YouTube channel for daily videos on market-moving topics.)

    But this is THE chart you should be paying attention to:

    [​IMG]

    There are several important points to note in the chart above:

    1. In the past 40-years, there have only been seven (7) other occasions where rates were this overbought. In each case, it was a great time to buy bonds and sell stocks. (When rates got oversold, it was time sell bonds and buy stocks.)

    2. There were only two (2) other periods where rates were this extended above their long-term moving averages. The one that occurred between 1980-1982 began the long-term decline in bond prices.

    3. Economic growth has peaked every time rates got this extended. (Which shouldn’t be a surprise.)

    4. Whenever rates have previously pushed 2-standard deviations of their 2-year moving average – bad things have tended to occur such as the Crash of 1974, Crash of 1987, Long-Term Capital Management, Russian Debt Default, Asian Contagion, Dot.com crash, and the Financial Crisis.

    While the markets are currently ignoring the risk of higher rates, even a cursory glance at the chart above suggests that we are near the point where “rates will matter.”

    I suspect the “Magic Number” is likely no higher than 3.25%.

    But we will only know for sure when the “rabbit pops out of the hat.”

    Just something to think about as you catch up on your weekend reading list.

    Economy, 2008 & Fed
    Markets
    Most Read On RIA
    Research / Interesting Reads
    “It’s all fun and games until someone gets their eye put out.”Every Mom In History
     
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  4. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2018-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
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  5. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    What Happens if Republicans Lose Control of Congress?
    Posted by lplresearch

    Among the most common questions we’ve received in the past few months are: What happens to stocks if Republicans lose control of Congress? And what happens if they retain control of both the House and the Senate?

    According to Washington insiders, there is a more likely chance of the House flipping than the Senate, based on polling data. Considering that since the Civil War, the party that controls the White House has lost House seats in 35 out of 38 midterm elections, this is indeed a strong pattern. Should that happen, it could be good for stocks, as historically the best scenario under a Republican president is a split Congress.

    “Markets tend to perform quite well under a gridlock scenario, but stocks have obviously done quite well since 2017 with Republicans in control of Congress,” explained LPL Research Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “Even more importantly than how Washington is divided up, though, is to remember that robust corporate profits and solid economic fundamentals drive long-term gains, and those are still quite positive.”

    As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, a Democratic president and Republican-controlled Congress has historically been the best combination for the S&P 500 Index, followed closely by a Democratic president and split Congress. Next up, though, is a Republican president and split Congress (which appears to be a reasonable prediction for this November).

    [​IMG]

    For more on what midterms could mean for stocks, be sure to read Midterm Mayhem?

    Real Fed Funds Signal Few More Innings Left
    Posted by lplresearch

    We dedicated a lot of real estate in our 2018 Midyear Outlookpublication to the idea that the business cycle may still have legs, considering indicators such as the ISM Manufacturing Index, the Leading Economic Index, and the yield curve. The strong growth in corporate profits also points to further economic growth ahead: The U.S. economy has never been in recession when corporate profits were growing.

    We can also look at the real federal funds rate (the Federal Reserve’s target short-term interest rate minus inflation) as an indicator of whether we are late in the cycle. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the current real fed funds rate is right around zero (2% inflation and ~2% fed funds rate).

    For inflation, we use the annual change in the personal consumption expenditures index excluding food and energy (core PCE).



    [​IMG]

    “The near zero level of the fed funds rate, on a real basis adjusted for inflation, suggests the Federal Reserve is not close to over-tightening,” noted LPL Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “That is a good sign for continued economic growth.” As the chart also shows, the real fed funds rate was 1.9% or higher ahead of each of the past eight recessions back to 1960.

    The Federal Reserve will almost certainly hike rates next week. Market odds favor another hike in December though that is less certain. But it would likely take a string of at least a half dozen more hikes to put the real fed funds rate in the range that has historically preceded recessions. Given benign recent inflation data, including smaller-than-expected increases in producer and consumer prices and soft import and export price data, and contained inflation expectations, we anticipate interest rate stability. That points to a business cycle that may still have a fair amount of room to run.

    Midterm Elections and Stocks: Friends or Foes?
    Posted by lplresearch

    2018 continues to be a solid year for U.S. equities, even in the face of many well-documented concerns (we’re looking at trade worries and the flattening yield curve here). Want some good news? The calendar may quickly become a bull’s best friend.

    “How do you make a bull smile? Tell him that the next three quarters are historically some of the strongest out of the entire four-year presidential cycle,“ said Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick.

    As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, going all the way back to when the Dow started trading in 1896, each of the next two quarters have closed higher 73.3% of the time—no other quarter is up more often. In addition, the average returns over the next three quarters have been 4.0%, 5.2%, and 3.6%—again some of the strongest in the four-year cycle.

    [​IMG]

    S&P 500 down 22 of 28 during week after September options expiration, average loss 0.96%
    [​IMG]
    The week after September options expiration week, next week, has a dreadful history of declines especially since 1990. The week after September options expiration week has been a nearly constant source of pain with only a few meaningful exceptions over the past 28 years. Substantial and across the board gains have occurred just three times: 1998, 2001, 2010 and 2016 while many more weeks were hit with sizable losses.

    Full stats are in the following sea-of-red table. Average losses since 1990 are even worse; DJIA –1.02%, S&P 500 –0.96%, NASDAQ –1.07% and a whopping –1.40% for Russell 2000. End-of-Q3 portfolio restructuring is the most likely explanation for this trend as managers trim summer losers and position for the fourth quarter.
    [​IMG]
    Asset Class Performance MTD, QTD, and YTD 2018
    Sep 19, 2018

    Below is an updated look at the performance of various asset classes using key ETFs tracked in our Trend Analyzer tool. For each ETF, we show its total return month-to-date, quarter-to-date, and year-to-date.

    While September has been an up month so far for the S&P 500 (SPY), we’ve seen some rotation out of the strategies that were working in 2018 prior to the start of the month. You’ll notice that areas like the Nasdaq 100, the Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors, and small-caps are all down in September, but they’re also the areas that are still up the most year-to-date. Conversely, the Dow 30 (DIA) has been the weakest of the three big US indices (Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100) in 2018, but it’s doing the best of the three in September.

    Outside of the US, we’ve seen big moves higher for Italy (EWI), Japan (EWJ), Mexico (EWW), Spain (EWP), and Russia (RSX), while India (PIN) and Australia (EWA) have both fallen. Brazil (EWZ) and China (ASHR) remain as the worst international performers on a year-to-date basis.

    The commodities ETF (DBC) is pretty much flat on the month along with oil (USO) and gold (GLD), while Treasury ETFs are down across the board. The 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) has been one of the worst performing asset classes in September with a drop of 3.37%.
    [​IMG]

    Another Seasonal Trend Fails to Deliver
    Sep 19, 2018

    We pay close attention to historical trends in the market and believe that investors should be aware of them, and in certain cases incorporate them into their process, but we have also always contended that investing based solely on the calendar is not the wisest of investment strategies. This year has been a perfect example. Sell in May and go away? Nope. September swoon? Not quite. The latest seasonal trend not to work this year is the somewhat less well-known, sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur.

    In recent history, this seasonal trend based on the holidays of the Jewish New Year and Day of Atonement has actually been pretty consistent. Going back to 2000, the S&P 500 has seen an average decline of 1.11% (median: -0.71%) during the ten-day period with positive returns less than 40% of the time (see table below). What’s more, being out of the market during this period also would have avoided the nearly 18% decline that took place during the Financial Crisis in 2008. While there are a number of theories as to why this trend has worked over time, the most likely probably has to do with the fact that the period always occurs somewhere between early September and early October which has historically been one of the worst times of the year for equities.

    While it has worked relatively well in the past, in 2018, the sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur trade hasn’t worked out for anyone following it. Through early afternoon Wednesday (Yom Kippur ends today), the S&P 500 is up 1.3% since the start of Rosh Hashanah, which is its best showing during this period since 2013.

    While the period between Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur has historically been weak for equities, the two weeks after Yom Kippur have been very positive. Since 2000, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 0.91% (median: 1.04%) with positive returns nearly three-quarters of the time. For the remainder of the year, the results are similarly as strong with an average gain of 4.76% (median: 5.75%).

    With the S&P 500 bucking the typical trend over the last week and a half, does that mean we can expect the market to do the opposite going forward? It’s possible, but prior history doesn’t suggest it. In fact, in prior years where the S&P 500 traded up during this period, it saw even stronger returns going forward. In the seven years where the S&P 500 was up from Rosh Hashanah through Yom Kippur, it traded up an average of 2.35% (median: 1.83%) in the following two weeks with positive returns all seven times. For the remainder of the year, the S&P 500’s average gain was 6.64% (median: 7.50%) with gains in all but one period (2007).

    [​IMG]

    Best Performing S&P 500 Stocks QTD
    Sep 18, 2018

    With under two weeks left to go in the quarter, Q2 2018 is shaping up to be a good one for US equities. S&P 500 stocks have posted an average gain of 5.7% so far this quarter with over three-quarters of the index in the black. So much for the weak breadth argument! In terms of top performers, the 34 stocks listed below are all up 20% or more QTD. Leading the way higher is Advanced Micro (AMD), which is up an unbelievable 113%. Trailing way behind in AMD’s dust, the next best-performing stock on the list is Flowserve (FLS), which is still up a respectable 38% followed by Arconic (ARNC), QUALCOMM (QCOM), HCA Healthcare (HCA), and PerkinElmer (PKI), which are all up over 30%.

    In terms of the FANG stocks, you have to go down to position number – wait. There are no FANG stocks on the list of top performers! In fact, in order to include even one FANG stock on this list, we would have to extend it to the top 100 stocks (AMZN – 95th). For the list to include two FANG stocks we would have to extend it to the top 300 names (GOOGL – 287th), and finally to include all the FANG stocks, we would simply have to show all the stocks in the S&P 500, as Facebook (FB) is all the way down at position number 490 in terms of its QTD rank. That’s right, only ten other stocks in the S&P 500 have done worse this quarter than Facebook.

    [​IMG]

    Cash is Less Trashy
    Sep 18, 2018

    As interest rates have risen over the last few months, we have seen a number of charts similar to the one below comparing the yield on the 3-Month US Treasury (UST) to the dividend yield on the S&P 500. Up until just a couple of months ago, this entire bull market has occurred during a period where short-term interest rates have been lower than the dividend yield on the S&P 500. After over two years of rate hikes from the FOMC, though, short-term interest rates rose above the S&P 500’s dividend yield this summer and have continued higher ever since. With yields crossing this key inflection point, there’s been a decent amount of chatter that the higher yield on cash makes it more attractive than equities given their lower yield.

    [​IMG]

    While any trader under the age of 30 (or algorithm using just ten years worth of history) has never known a world during their career where the dividend yield on equities was less than the yield on short-term Treasuries, those who are older or familiar with market history know that it is much more common for equities to yield less than short-term Treasuries. The chart below is the same as the one above except that instead of going back to just the start of 2009, it goes all the way back to 1970. As shown, prior to 2009, instances, where short-term Treasuries yielded less than the S&P 500 were few and far between. After all, unless you have some short-term needs for the capital, who would want to own an asset with zero upside potential (short-term treasury) if held through maturity that pays a lower coupon than equities, which outside of a couple of periods have always increased in value?

    [​IMG]

    Below we compare the spread between the yield on the 3-month UST to the dividend yield of the S&P 500. While short-term Treasuries currently yield nearly 31 basis points (0.31%) more than the dividend yield of the S&P 500, that spread is still more than 150 bps below the historical average. Furthermore, even when the spread has been above the historical average, it has hardly represented a warning sign for equities. Throughout the entire mid to late 1990s period and nearly all of the 1980s (two very strong periods for equities), the spread was not only positive but well above the long-term average as well. The only thing that makes cash look less trashy when it is yielding marginally more than the S&P 500 is when it follows an outright garbage period of years where it yielded less.

    [​IMG]

    S&P 500 Average Daily Change Down to +/-0.40%
    Sep 17, 2018

    2017 was one of the least volatile years ever for the US equity market. The S&P 500 averaged an absolute daily change of just 0.30% last year.

    Due to a pick-up in volatility during the S&P’s correction in the first quarter, the average absolute daily change for the index is more elevated this year at +/-0.64%, but more recently we’ve seen a pretty big drop in the action. As shown in the chart below, the S&P has averaged an absolute change of just +/-0.40% over the last 50 trading days, which is well below the average of 0.70% seen throughout the current bull market.

    From a seasonal perspective, September and October have historically been the most volatile months of the trading year, but so far this September, the S&P has averaged a daily move of less than 0.24%. It’s starting to feel like 2017 all over again!

    [​IMG]
     
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  6. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Stock Market Analysis Video for September 21st, 2018
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon
    (VIDEO NOT YET UP!)

    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 9.23.18 - How to Play the FOMC Announcement Next Week
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
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  7. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 9.21.18-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
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  8. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
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  9. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
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  10. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-
    [​IMG]
     
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  11. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the weekly earnings calendar posted in here as well once it's out)

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 9.24.18 Before Market Open:
    NONE.

    Monday 9.24.18 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 9.25.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 9.25.18 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 9.26.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 9.26.18 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 9.27.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 9.27.18 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 9.28.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 9.28.18 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
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  12. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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  13. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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  14. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    good monday morning to all.

    here is the pre-market thread for anyone wanting to get a quick read in before today's open-
    [​IMG] <-- click there to read!

    hope everyone has a great trading week ahead on this final trading week of september and q3.
     
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  15. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Energy stocks having a really good day :eek: Treasury yields continue to move higher, we could see another new multi year highs on yields if the FED is hawkish on Wednesday :D
     
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  16. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    This Week in Economic Data
    Sep 24, 2018

    Last week was fairly quiet on the economic data front. This week is set to be busier with 22 US reports including an anticipated rate hike by the FOMC on Wednesday. Some releases worth mentioning are Consumer Confidence on Tuesday; followed by Michigan Confidence on Friday. Additionally, Thursday will be a busy day of economic data with the third release of Q2 GDP alongside Personal Consumption, Core PCE, Durable Goods, and Pending Home Sales. On Thursday we will also see if jobless claims continue to impress. Finally, after last week’s mixed manufacturing reports from the NY Fed and Philly Fed, Friday’s Chicago PMI release can hopefully provide some clarity to the overall manufacturing outlook of the US.

    [​IMG]
     
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  17. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    tech (nasdaq) briefly turning green here :eek:
     
  18. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    CMCSA down 7% right now. They won the bid for Sky, but also are selling their 30% stake in Hulu, to Disney. They say they don't want any ownership in a company they cannot control.
     
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  19. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    looks like brent crude over $80 for the first time since 2014 :eek:

    [​IMG]

    is there a fed presser followed by the fomc anouncement on wednesday? i believe there is...hmm o_O
     
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  20. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Apr 3, 2016
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    Yeah, there goes the Nasdaq again. Was the weakest index overnight, now it's the leader.
     

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