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Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (1/15-1/19)

Cy's official Stockaholics thread archives group.

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How do you see the SPX closing for the week of (1/15-1/19)?

Poll closed Jan 16, 2018.
  1. Up.

    33.3%
  2. Flat. (+/-0.50% or less)

    50.0%
  3. Down.

    16.7%
  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

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    Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest for the Week of (1/15-1/19)
    (Read this first post for the Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest)


    [​IMG]

    Congrats to @bigbear0083 the Stockaholics Weekly Contest Winner for the Week of (1/8-1/12)!

    *Link to Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest Thread for the Week of (1/8-1/12)*

    On to the next! The Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest for the Week of (1/15-1/19) starts at the opening bell on Tuesday, January 16th, 2018.

    If you want to be eligible to participate in this week's contest here is what you need to do (REQUIRED!):

    • 1.) Post 2 tickers (ex. AAPL = Apple) but YOU MUST pick 2 not just 1 or else I will not add you to our list of contestants!
    • 2.) Choose either Long or Short for each ticker (Obviously LONG = if you think it will go up ... or SHORT = if you think it will go down this week)
    • 3.) Both of your picks MUST each be at least $2 at the bare minimum! If you pick something that is under $2 then your pick will not count, and you will not be entered into this week's contest!
    Contest Rules (PLEASE READ THESE AND FOLLOW THEM!):
    • 1.) No OTC or IPOs.
    • 2.) No Futures, Forex, Indexes stuff like that... Equities ONLY that trade on the U.S. Stock Exchange!
    • 3.) If you don't post both the ticker AND the direction (LONG/SHORT) you won't be added to the list of contestants for this week's stock picking contest!
    • 4.) You cannot duplicate someone's exact play! For example- If someone picks AAPL - Long and BAC - Long first then you may only pick AAPL - Short and BAC - Long or AAPL - Long and BAC - Short <-- you may only duplicate 1 pick but not BOTH! This is a first come, first serve basis here!
    • 5.) Picks absolutely MUST be posted in here before the 9:30AM eastern time cash market open on the first trading day of the week!
    • 6.) You are NOT allowed to pick any leveraged ETFs (2x/3x). If you choose one, it will not count. If incorrect picks go un-noticed, you risk your position being forfeited!
    • 7.) RATIONALE - You may post up a rationale (either technical or fundamental) for both of your picks but they are not required. This is optional for everyone.
    • 8.) Please DO NOT EDIT your original post with your picks! If you absolutely must choose another pick, please use a separate post and state that you are changing your original pick to something else!
    • 9.) You may choose to close out one or both of your picks at any time during the trading week. PLEASE POST YOUR OWN CLOSING PRICE(S)!We will be using the intraday 1 minute closing price using the time stamp of your post on Stockaholics for when you closed out your pick. You will need to state which pick(s) you are closing out as well as the price & the time of when you closed out. I will be confirming that your closing price is correct by looking at the 1 min. intraday chart. If it is not correct, I will then post up your correct price and input that into the live spreadsheet. If you choose to close out after the trading day is finished (after the closing bell), you will then get the next day's opening price.
    If you have any questions, feel free to ask, and if anyone sees someone else messing up, please correct them. Also, please look at your positions after I post the spreadsheets. I try to catch mistakes, in and out of my control, but need your help in making sure the information is accurate.

    Remember...the contest starts at the opening bell on Tuesday, January 16th!

    GLTA.

    Click the button below to view this week's contest spreadsheet-
    [​IMG]

    Click the button below to view the Stockaholics 2018 weekly contest winners-
    [​IMG]

    Click the button below to view the Stockaholics 2018 weekly contest winners spreadsheet-
    [​IMG]

    Click the button below to view the 2018 Stockaholics stock picking contest members leaderboard-
    [​IMG]

    Click the button below to view the 2018 weekly stock picking contest members records-
    [​IMG]

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    This is a poll for the week of 1/15-1/19, 2018
    Expires Tuesday at the opening bell on: 1/16/18
    Don't forget to click the "Vote Now" button! ;)

    How does Stockaholics think the S&P500 will close the week?

    [​IMG]

    Starting point:
    [​IMG]

    **Starting point will be edited into this post after Friday close**
    *Link to Previous Weekly Poll Thread*
    Don't forget to post your vote to be listed in the 2018

    [​IMG]

    Click the button below to view the 2018 Poll Member Voting Record Leaderboard-
    [​IMG]

    Results from the last poll (1/8-1/12)
    2,743.15
    2,786.24 +1.57%


    Stockaholics Voted
    [​IMG]


    No weekly poll tally for Stockaholics this week. Credit goes to the UP votes! :cool:


    Post your Vote!
    [​IMG]


    Notes/Guidelines:
    1) For purpose of the spreadsheet record flat is currently based on +/-0.50% or less. Of course, everyone can define flat any way they choose.
    2) Up, Flat, or Down must be clearly specified in a post in order to be listed in the spreadsheet, otherwise it'll be assumed that post was not intended to be a part of the official record.
    3) Because of the poll expiration at Sunday midnight GMT time zone, (Sunday 4pm PST / 7pm EST) I manually close the poll around 9pm - midnight in PST, or before I go to bed. You may notice the poll says to expire on Monday, but it does not. It will expire on Sunday the date that is in this post.4 pm PST / 7pm EST is just a bit too early and I want to give as much possible time for everyone to get a chance to vote.
    4) You may notice that some members have monthly and quarterly statistics in the spreadsheet. I add these based on at the start of the month or quarter taking into account past consistent voter-ship.
    5) It's OK to post your vote if you missed the deadline after the poll has expired and if the market has not really moved that much or especially if your late vote is opposite or flat of the S&P futures ATM. It will be up to my discretion and obviously, the more active voters will be given more leeway.
    6) Starting and ending points based on official close of the market Friday.
    7) The primary goal of this game is to track our performance. You can consider it a contest or as a personal critiquing tool to better ones performance
    .
     
    #1 bigbear0083, Jan 3, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2018
  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
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    Congratulations to this week's contest winner and 1st time winner of the weekly stock contest in 2018 (1st time winner in Q1!) -- @bigbear0083! :cool:

    Some worthy mentions also go out to our 2nd place winner -- @anotherdevilsadvocate and 3rd place winner -- @fireopal!

    Here was this week's final contest results:
    [​IMG]

    Here are this year's weekly contest winners & their winning picks in 2018 thus far-
    [​IMG]

    Click the button below to view the complete weekly contest winners & their winning picks in 2018 thus far-
    [​IMG]

    And here is the weekly contest members leaderboard as of week ending 1.12.18-
    @anotherdevilsadvocate is our current leader with 20 points this quarter! :cool:
    [​IMG]

    Click the button below to view the 2018 Stockaholics stock picking challenge leaderboard-
    [​IMG]

    And finally, we have the complete weekly stock picking challenge members history which includes every pick from our active participants this year.

    Click the button below to view the 2018 weekly stock picking contest members records-
    [​IMG]
     
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
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    Post #1 Updated!
    Scores Graded!


    Click the button below to view the full 2018 Stockaholics Poll Member Voting Record-
    [​IMG]

    *Link to Previous Weekly Poll Thread*

    No weekly poll tally for Stockaholics this week. Credit goes to the UP votes! :cool:

    Shout outs go out to our 3 posted UP voters for this week!-

    @anotherdevilsadvocate
    @stock1234
    @fireopal

    Special commendation go out to our current weekly poll consecutive leaders with 2 in a row!-

    @anotherdevilsadvocate
    @stock1234

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    And lastly a special commendation goes out to our current overall weekly poll percentage leaders for the year with a 100.00% voting accuracy thus far in 2018!-

    @anotherdevilsadvocate
    @stock1234

    Here is a look at the weekly poll members voting record leaderboard as of week ending 1.12.18-
    We currently have a tie between @anotherdevilsadvocate & @stock1234 with 10 points so far this quarter! :cool:
    [​IMG]

    Click the button below to view the complete 2018 Poll Member Voting Record Leaderboard-
    [​IMG]

    Whelp, that is a wrap from me this week ... and I hope you all have an awesome weekend ahead! Have fun and be safe! Cheers y'alls! :cool:

    ...and please do not forget to click in your vote on the poll & post your vote before the opening bell on Tuesday!!!
     
  4. BermudianOption

    BermudianOption Active Member

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    Market flat

    SPWR - Long
    ABT - Long
     
    #4 BermudianOption, Jan 13, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2018
  5. Ken34

    Ken34 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

    Joined:
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    Messages:
    1,438
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    569
    voting market up

    NVDA - long
    AMD - long
     
  6. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Market FLAT

    CMA - long
    TEAM - long
     
  7. ApexC

    ApexC Active Member

    Joined:
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    229
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    PPL - Long
    CAI - Long
     
  8. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
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    Market - Flat

    AMD - Long
    TWTR - Long
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

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    Market - Flat

    ASML - long
    MS - long
     
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

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    Here is this week's contest spreadsheet in case I'm unable to get around to it later tomorrow-
    [​IMG] <-- click there to view!

    NOTE: *Ignore the current "opening prices" as those will automatically correct to tomorrow's opening prices after 9:30am eastern time.*

    Good luck to all of our participants in here for this week! :cool:

    @BermudianOption
    @Ken34
    @anotherdevilsadvocate
    @ApexC
    @Onepoint272
    @bigbear0083

    NOTE: I am just posting up this week's spreadsheet a little earlier than usual in here as I have a pretty busy day ahead of me for tomorrow. I will continue adding members picks up until the 9:30am eastern time opening bell tomorrow morning so don't think you are excluded from this week's contest if I haven't listed your name up right now. I just wanted to get this spreadsheet posted in here and out of the way so I don't have to worry about getting it up at a later time tomorrow. ;)
     
  11. Three Eyes

    Three Eyes Well-Known Member

    Joined:
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    Market - Down

    AAPL - Long
    FEYE - Long

    Rationale: FEYE gonna close that gap; AAPL breakout in run-up to earnings.
     
  12. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

    Joined:
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    Market Up

    BAC - Long
    BA - Short
     
  13. fireopal

    fireopal Well-Known Member

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    Market - up

    PETS - Long
    XON - Long
     
  14. Andre

    Andre Active Member

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    Market FLAT

    C - long
    GE - short
     
  15. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

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    Midweek SPX update-

    START: 2,786.24
    CURRENT: 2,802.56 (+0.59%)


    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Midweek weekly contest update:

    Shout out to our current leader -- @bigbear0083!

    [​IMG]
     
    BermudianOption likes this.
  16. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    What is the rationale for using a baseline of the Monday open instead of the Friday close? o_O
     
    bigbear0083 likes this.
  17. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Hey @Onepoint272 great question there and I figured this was going to be brought up in here again at some point as it was a couple of times in the past as well.

    So, basically the quick rationale I would say for using the opening prices of the first trading day of the week as opposed to using the closing prices of the last trading day of the prior week is simply to avoid having people making picks that have large pre-market gaps in either direction.

    For example sake: say if someone was picking something long and it came out with ER or some binary news event in the pre-market on the first trade day of the week that made the stock have a HUGE gap higher, they could easily pick that for the competition and (at least initially) start off with a large lead since we'd be starting off with the closing prices of the previous trade week. And, since we allow participants to close picks at any time during the trading week, they could essentially close out right off the open, and hold that large gap.

    Using the "open" of the first trade day of the week would essentially cancel out those large pre-market gaps. Does that makes sense? If not let me know.

    I do the same for all the other contest formats here as well.

    In addition to all of that, this has been a long standing tradition that we've kept using for the competitions here since going back many many years on the old HSM.

    Personally, I think it makes sense to use the opening prices over the closing prices of the prior week and makes the competitions a bit more fair/interesting for everyone. But that might just be me?

    Honestly, I wouldn't mind changing this over to using the closing prices of the prior week if everyone preferred using that over the open of the new trading week.

    Perhaps I will start up a poll to see what the participants prefer more. Ultimately it is up to you guys for what you feel is best for the competitions.
     
    Onepoint272 likes this.
  18. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Closing out both of these picks at today's open.

    Will post opening prices a little later.
     
  19. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

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    ASML: 202.18
    MS: 55.90
     

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