The Adventures of an unhealthy amount of free time.

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by Alexander Gray, Aug 13, 2016.

  1. Alexander Gray

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2016
    Messages:
    61
    Likes Received:
    23
    For the last half year or so I have found a great interest in the stock market and economics, After dedicating a lot of time towards bettering my knowledge through reading books and articles on the subject I thought it best to attempt to successfully hypothesize various share prices as well as macroeconomic events that may influence the share prices. In simple, I hope to create a virtual portfolio on here to write about occasionally because I have nothing better to do.

    So prior to this I wrote some fairly remedial theses about AT&T (t) and CCE (cce). I successfully theorized that AT&T would outperform the tech sector, and I thought that the price to equity ratio prior to the recent increase in share price reflected a value price for the share, not even mentioning the low debt/equity and comfortable dividend and earnings per share.

    I also compared AT&T to its main competitor Verizon Communications (VZ). From a statistical glance you can see how superior AT&T was, all metrics were far more in favour with AT&T (with the exception of having a similar price/equity if memory serves). This due diligence was also done during the VZ strike.

    Because of low interest rates acquisitions are making a lot of recent value for shareholders. So I think debt-to-equity is especially important and if a company maintains minimal leverage it is more beneficial and allows room for future acquisitions and therefore future value for shareholders if the aforementioned statement is true.

    On top of this there were many other reasons but this is just supposed to be a brief summary.

    CCE however was unsuccessfully theorized since my novice self was unable to successfully evaluate the future price of the share after a three-way merger. I have since begun to learn about special situation value investing (How to value shares after corporate action has been taken), if you are at all interested in special situation investing I highly encourage you to read Special Situations by Maurece Schiller.

    I also forgot to account for the macroeconomic threat that brexit placed to the company since the majority of its' manufacturing is in the UK whilst a lot of its supply is in Europe. Despite this I still theoretically retained a profit since I sold after 1 1/2 weeks of viewing the share as a long the threat of brexit on the tv successfully swayed me.

    Returns:
    CCE : bought @ $36.50 after the merger
    sold @ $40.00 after threat of brexit swayed me (+ I viewed it as having little upside after the optimism followed by the merger).
    AT&T: bought @ $38.62 after analysis of the stock
    still believe there is further upside. (currently trading @ $43.28).

    Would anyone benefit from any more threads by me on stock picks or is this a waste of time and effort?
     
    Elialpha likes this.
  2. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2016
    Messages:
    8,448
    Likes Received:
    3,268
    Nice job. All content and reading material is good. We will see your thoughts and they will make us think. We could also have an open dialogue with you that makes you think about other things as well. I'd suggest you start a journal with your thoughts and I'm sure you'll have some people who are reading it regularly and posting their thoughts as well.

    Definitely not a waste of time or effort.
     
  3. Tiptopptrader

    Tiptopptrader Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2016
    Messages:
    4,895
    Likes Received:
    1,124
    You done good on T @Alexander Gray. If you go long and let those divi's keep compounding you can weather most storms. T is the biggest position in my portfolio...Good luck to you on your trades...TTT
     
  4. Alexander Gray

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2016
    Messages:
    61
    Likes Received:
    23
    So After looking out onto the bleak day I thought I should update my journal. So this entry will be hopefully much better than the last in that I will list every position, the date of entry and or exit of a particular position. I will then explain the reasoning behind them. Since my portfolio is not traded with real currency and is pure paper trading I will put a rough percentage weight on each one as a measure of (1) my conviction and (2) my risk aversion (and the volatility to be expected).
    Current Positions:
    Ticker - Buy price - Profit/Loss (%) - Current Price - Weight (%) - Date Entered
    JPM - $60.36 - 11% - $67 - 5% - 6/29/2016
    GS - $152.19 - 10% - $168 - 5% - 7/11/2016
    AAPL - $95.53 - 8% - $103 - 10% - 6/30/2016
    BRK-B - $148.23 - (-)2% - $146 - 5% - 8/29/2016
    SIEN - $8.12 - 0.4% - $8.15 - 0.5% - 8/17/2016
    PSX - $78.88 - (-)1% - $77.86 - 5% - 9/2/2016
    NFLX - $91.06 - 5% - $96 - 2% - 6/29/2016
    TWLO - $52.78 - 6% - $56 - 2% - 8/12/2016
    LSXMK - $33.03 - 0.4% - $33.19 - 2% - 9/9/2016
    WFC - $48.72 - 0% - $48.72 - 1% - 9/9/2016
    NTDOY - $25.78 - 28% - $33 - 1% - 7/29/2016

    Realised ROR (not annualized) as a Weighted sum(%): 2.21% (Hopefully my maths is correct)

    Current Holdings (%)
    CASH($) - 61.5%
    SHARES(NYSE/NASDAQ) - 38.5%

    Exited Positions:
    Ticker - Buy price - Sell Price - Profit/Loss (%) - Weight (%) - Date Entered - Date Exited
    T - $38.62 - $42.32 - 10.9% - 7% - 6/2/2016 - 8/16/2016
    TWLO - $52.78 - $59 - 11.5% - 3% - 8/12/2016 - 8/17/2016
    CCE - $36.50 - $40 - 9% - 4% - Forgot Exact Date :(
    NTDOY - $25.78 - $28 - 9% - 4% - 7/29/2016 - 8/22/2016

    ROR on closed positions: 1.828%
    Total Return: 4.038%
    S&P500 Return: 1.51% (From 7/10/2016)
    Rough Annualized Return Forecast From 7/5/2016 (That is the date I decided to fully commit to this prior to that minimal capital was invested): 20%
     
    #4 Alexander Gray, Sep 10, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2016
    OldFart likes this.
  5. Alexander Gray

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2016
    Messages:
    61
    Likes Received:
    23
    So after experiencing The Hampton Effect after Labor Day bank-holiday (where the big portfolio managers return from The Hamptons to readjusted their portfolios for the coming months leading to the end of the year) I decided to start socialising with people on this forum and on reddit more in the hopes that I can improve my macroeconomic knowledge of the news and also to improve my studies into one of my favourite (and obsessive) interests.

    Before I start explaining to you all why I made the decisions I made on the portfolio, I want to disclose that I am 14 years old. I have no qualification or certification worth mentioning. I would also appreciate positive feedback rather than the average /r/wallstreetbet comedic jargon. This is currently one of two interests in my life (this and runescape) so I very much want to learn how to improve from my mistakes.

    JPM & GS

    Almost a month prior to brexit I decided to invest into the American financial industry. From my relatively primitive understanding of financial balance sheets (especially in an industry filled with complextions and "interesting" valuations to say the least) I believed JPM and GS would be the ones for me to invest in. This was mainly down to (1) Growth, (2) Long-Term Growth, (3) PE Shiller Comparison in sector, (4) Debt/Equity, (5) Management, (6) Brexit.

    For the Quantitative research I will not list them here since they will have changed from my original analysis and they are very easy to look up on a stock screener website such as Yahoo Finance or Google.

    The CEO of JPM is Jamie Dimon and the CEO of GS is Lloyd Blankfein, both of which I believe are at the top of the investment banking industry and I admire both very much. Jamie Dimon successfully steered JPM in the financial crisis and has proved consistent returns for the bank. Lloyd Blankfein and his management have transitioned away from traditional investment banking and are moving GS in a direction I like, Goldman Sachs is also one of the brightest (having the best staff arguebly) out of the big american banks.

    The market prior to brexit was the catalyst of my investment that was causing alot of "fear" in the industry. I personally viewed that the panicking and extrapolation of fear into the future had lead to a situation where if brexit occurred the pound would fall and give a discount to American banks resulting in profit, or brexit did not occur and the fear monguring turned into a microboom.

    AAPL
    So it was Tim Cook's 5th year anniversary on the 24th August this year. During that time Apple has bought back shares and focused on creating shareholder value. My investment was focused on looking at (1) fundamentals (2) Carl Icahn (3) Berkshire Hathaway (4) Where is Apple heading?

    Carl icahn is a prominent "activist investor" who is basically a proponent of pump&dump growth investing known by the media as "The Icahn Lift". He finds a company that he thinks will do well recent news has depressed the price of the stock or the stock is depressed for another reason and then he creates good media for it and changes conventional wisdom until the stock price has reached his valuation and he sells. He did this for Apple. What was my greatest concern about this was his reasoning for exiting Apple. He changed his valuation of $200 for Apple because of macroeconomic issues that China could potential pose on Apple. I think this is overly pessimistic and for the time frame I am looking into (6 months - 1 year) I see no problem with Apple in relation to China. I am also of the belief that a macroeconomic event such of this is beyond anyones view unless you have invented time travel and have got a magazine with events such as these (like in Back to The Future with Sports)

    (I am not sure whether this happened before or slightly after I invested forgive me) I am for more in agreement with Berkshire Hathaway's viewpoint - it has great value. I think the reason it was added as a major edition to their portfolio was (1) the fundamentals and (2) the fact that Apple is heading towards being a consumer brand and focusing less on R&D and more on Shareholder value and Revenue Growth. Apple is working on expanding its brand into emerging markets and tapping into new consumer basis. Sure its new products aren't as visionary as the great Steve Jobs' but Tim Cook is certainly a great CEO working towards bettering the company as a whole. Even if the iphone7 does not hit ground-breaking sales records it is a strong consumer brand that should be taken into strong consideration when doing due diligence.

    I must confess however, I believe I had too much conviction for Apple and I think I should not have made it the largest position in my current portfolio.
     
    OldFart likes this.
  6. Alexander Gray

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2016
    Messages:
    61
    Likes Received:
    23
    BRK-B & SIEN
    In terms of Berkshire Hathaway, this choice is fairly self-explanatory - Warren Buffett "The Oracle of Omaha". I would recommend anyone interested in this safe long term buy to read his Annual Letters where he talks in detail about even how to value his own company accuratley. From a macroeconomic viewpoint however Berkshire seems like a safe investment going forward into the low-interest rate uncertainty that looms over the market currently.

    Sientra Inc is an interesting position. I purchased it after reading a blog about it from https://reminiscencesofastockblogger.com/. But here is a quick summary - Sientra sells breast implants that are reportedly better than Allergan's and Johnson & Johnsons however they were forced to stop selling the product because of fears for the safety of the product. Recently, it has been reintroduced therefore since it is a better product, it should be able to take over market share and improve sales. It is also worth noting that Sientra is currently holding alot of the product - so its valuation will hopefully go up after it begins to lower its holdings of the product and establish better manufacturing (which it had problems with causing 2014 sales figures to go down).

    Sientra is a bit of an experiment which is why it is so low on the portfolio, I may consider increasing this position if it falls significantly below my original purchase.
     
  7. Alexander Gray

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2016
    Messages:
    61
    Likes Received:
    23
    PSX
    Phillips 66, in case you don't know, is a multinational energy company spin off from ConcoPhillips. It is a much longer time horizon trade than many of the others in the portfolio (1-3+ years). Phillips66 has reinvested alot of earnings into improving its Refiners which will increase its' value into the future. This is currently the least sexy (by profit/loss and news metrics) position in my portfolio but I think in the long-term it will pay off. I will probably write a better due diligence of this stock some time into the future.

    NFLX & TWLO
    I made the decision to purchase Twilio Inc just after its IPO which was very successful, I originally planned to swing trade the entire position. The trade decision was based on market sentiment at the time and alot of optimistic wall street analysts. I have kept a small position to see if the wall street analysts are right.

    I decided to buy into Netflix because it is a great platform for movies and has the potential to be a great business. However, it's management keeps shooting itself in the foot with unjustifiably good forecasts and poor managerial decisions all round. Nevertheless I think that it will go back up in coming months as Netflix Original Series and Movies pay off. I also think the subscription base should steadily increase sufficiently to warrant the share outperforming the market. However, due to poor management and me already having a high exposure in the technology sector I decided to keep this as a small position.

    NTDOY
    I invested in Nintendo after the release and massive rise of the stock following Pokemon Go. I view Nintendo as a "bubble" stock where the company has a great release every now and then but a few months after it goes back to low (or just matching) performance of the market. This is why i sold the majority of my position after a few weeks, but I held some to see what the realised profits would be like after Pokemon Go. However, due to forces (Apple) beyond my control the stock has sky rocketed (again) since I originally purchased.

    As you can see, I added to new positions yesterday which I hope to publish more in depth due diligence of hopefully in the coming week / month.

    Looking Ahead
    After the recent dip in the S&P500 it has convinced me to look at readjusting my portfolio allocation. This is especially the case for AAPL, JPM and GS. Although I think it is a waste of time trying to analyse and successfully predict macroeconomic events I think I should begin to prepare my portfolio for a potential fed rate hike or any other measure the fed decides. One of the ways I am already doing this is by keeping a high % of the portfolio invested in Cash so that if the market does fall I can begin dollar cost averaging some of my positions.

    Although above I showed an annualized ROR of 20% I do not think I will reach this figure. A major reason why my portfolio has experienced much success was due to Brexit and Swing trades of T, CCE and TWLO which has resulted in a much higher forecast than I would hope to reach. Having said this, I do think I will be able to beat the market this year but only time will tell.

    Any feedback is much appreciated and thanked. Thank you if you have read this far.
     
    Tiptopptrader likes this.
  8. Tiptopptrader

    Tiptopptrader Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2016
    Messages:
    4,895
    Likes Received:
    1,124
    Regarding financials I went with BAC as it has the most to gain from rate hikes. Next would be C that should run good as well. Now if your looking for growth and Divi;s then WFC and JPM would be a choice in that order

    I am long BAC and VLY in financials
     
    Alexander Gray likes this.
  9. Alexander Gray

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2016
    Messages:
    61
    Likes Received:
    23
    @Tiptopptrader Interesting. I may begin to shortern the positions in JPM and GS and begin to buy into BAC. I think I will probably look to exit GS however. For me the recent news with WFC has caused the stock to become depressed and fall in price further (I will wait to see if it falls any further as to see if it is "undervalued"). Also I suppose looking at d/e and lt d/e of each bank will also be important if a fed rate hike were to happen. Personally I find financial stock the hardest to valuate and accuratley judge as it is probably the most "sophisticate" (or confusing) sector to valuate based on fundamentals. I would prefer to go with a bank that will do good regardless of any fed decision rather than see superior returns if a certain decision was taken by the fed.
     
    Tiptopptrader likes this.
  10. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    4,319
    Likes Received:
    3,375
    I looked at a monthly chart of AAPL (we have a thread here) and this month may be a bit down, but it looks like a good time to be getting in to AAPL. You already have a lot of cash in your portfolio, so I would not be anxious to sell any AAPL yet. Not so long as it's above 100.

    Low interest rates are a certainty. They'll either be 0.50% or 0.75% going into next year. Neither rate is high.
     
    Alexander Gray likes this.
  11. Alexander Gray

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2016
    Messages:
    61
    Likes Received:
    23
  12. Tiptopptrader

    Tiptopptrader Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2016
    Messages:
    4,895
    Likes Received:
    1,124
    Yes I would kick the tires on WFC as I have not checked their fundamentals of late. Here is a 3 month chart of BAC, C, JPM, and WFC that might help make your decision.

    upload_2016-9-11_7-56-32.png
     

    Attached Files:

    Alexander Gray likes this.
  13. Alexander Gray

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2016
    Messages:
    61
    Likes Received:
    23
    That is very interesting indeed. I will be conducting a full analysis and review of the US financial industry in preparation for the coming macroeconomic conditions ahead. I think my financial portfolio allocation needs readjusting and reviewing.
     
    #13 Alexander Gray, Sep 11, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2016
  14. Alexander Gray

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2016
    Messages:
    61
    Likes Received:
    23
    After much thought, I will be writing these journal entries on my website as well as on this site. This is because the site provides me with greater flexibility and I can work on presenting more in-depth content. I am also doing it on there because a friend of mine (Akhmed in /r/investing discord chat) also wants to do paper investing. So if you would be interested in more in-depth stock valuations please check out my website: http://letsbeatmrmarket.wordpress.com/ also I have created a spreadsheet (based on Rohit's) that shows the portfolio, you can find it at my website. I really enjoy doing this and I thank all of you greatly for the warm responses.


    New Position: Ford Motors Company (F)

    I have decided to buy into Ford Motors Company (F) after the company's stock has been on the fall for the last year. In my mind, the share price of the company has fallen low enough to be considered undervalued and the good fundamentals reflect this. When valuing the stock I looked at the (1) Fundamentals, (2) Future Growth Potentials, (3) Comparison against Competitors and (5) The Catalyst for the investment.

    The most important fundamental of this stock is the high dividend yield of 4%. This will allow the mitigation of small losses. Aside from this, the fundamentals are very good in comparison to the market and the sector. Further research: http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=f. The fundamentals worth noting are the PEG ratio and PE ratio, Although the D/E and LT D/E are above ideal.

    So growth in the industry has slowed as a result of the macroeconomic climate following from the financial crisis and great recession. The main area for expansion of growth in coming years is in Europe and the emerging markets for Ford which should lead higher than previous growth rates. In the US, lower gasoline prices and economic growth will also help improve growth.

    I compared Ford to General Motors and Tesla. Tesla is a share that is riding on a lot of "goodwill" as well as media. Also, Elon Musk the CEO of Tesla has run into trouble as he uses Tesla to bailout his other company SolarCity. Although the Growth of Tesla is very much higher, I believe the current price has more than factored this in. General Motors on the other hand has been made more competitive in comparison after Bankruptcy Fillings allowing the company to remove a lot of its' liabilities. The fundamentals of each stock are very attractive - if not favouring General Motors with significantly less D/E. However, I believe the growth of Ford to be more consistent as General Motors experienced very good growth the previous year. Either way both seem attractive dividend investments and should have good value in the next 1-3 years depending on how long it takes for growth rates in the industry to pick up.

    The macroeconomic catalyst of this trade is the decline in revenue growth and sales in the industry. However, with the high dividends this problem should be mitigated until growth does eventual pick up. Also, "The Hampton Effect" where portfolio managers return to readjust portfolios after Labor Day with the combination of a few convoluted FED statements on the potential Fed Rate Hike have caused the market to fall 2% and Ford Motors to fall 3%.

    I will review the position when the price of Ford Shares reach around $15 mark.
     
  15. Tiptopptrader

    Tiptopptrader Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2016
    Messages:
    4,895
    Likes Received:
    1,124
    We appear to cross paths on your choices @Alexander Gray. I have been invested F for many years and the compounding of the Divi's have kept me above board. You may also check out the gaming sector with special attention to WYNN, LVS, MGM, and MPEL that I cal the Big 4. As Macau gaming is getting better and Vegas is heating they are positioned to go higher.Much downside pressure was applied from Fridays drop and WYNN and MPEL trended higher on strong volume. I am long MPEL and MGM.

    upload_2016-9-11_10-8-58.png
     
    #15 Tiptopptrader, Sep 11, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2016
    Alexander Gray likes this.
  16. Alexander Gray

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2016
    Messages:
    61
    Likes Received:
    23
    Great mind's Think Alike :) I will look into these stocks although I will have to put it on the backburner while I spend time (1) Reviewing US financials, (2) Looking into passively managed funds (ETFS / REITS) and (3) Reviewing portfolio allocation. But after that I will definitley spend time looking at these. Thanks for all the help and advice by the way :)
     
    Tiptopptrader likes this.
  17. Alexander Gray

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2016
    Messages:
    61
    Likes Received:
    23
    Daily Update #1

    Since I am really enjoying sharing my positions with the internet I have decided to make a daily update to all of my actions / readjustments as well as various opinions on the long term market. In case you are not interested in reading all of my daily update I will have a short summary at the top.

    In Short
    I have decided to readjust my portfolio positions in financials (JPM, GS, WFC & BRK.B). JPM & GS have both been shortened to 3% and 2% respectively. WFC will remain unchanged. BRK.B will remain unchanged. This adjustment has been (1) to lower my exposure in the financial sector, (2) to diversify my investments in financials further as a means to reduce risk and (3) to add a new position in the financial sector.

    I have added BAC as a new, small position at 2%. This is because (1) the fundamentals are good, (2) it has good growth and growth potential and (3) I want to diversify my financial sector exposure further (the dividends it provides are also helpful to mitigate risk and small losses that may be incurred).

    I have added T as a new very small position at 1%. This is because (1) it is a great dividend investment, (2) the growth is good, (3) it is significantly better in comparison with the rest of its' sector.

    I have added a very small short position of the S&P500 at 0.25%. This is because (1) the CAPE ratio indicates it is priced too high relative to its long-term average, (2) Low-interest rates have created bubbles and fragility in the market and (3) it acts a hedge position against my other investments. I will look to increase this position if the S&P500 increases above its current price.

    New Position: BAC
    I do not feel as if I need to write a long analysis of this stock as it is fairly self-explanatory. It is a good dividend stock that provides safety and exposure to the financial sector. Although the fundamentals are good and so is the growth it was purchased as a defensive investment. Also, it provides further profit potential if on an off shot the fed were to raise interest rates (which is very improbable). It also works out well in relation to my other investments.

    New Position:T
    AT&T is a stock that I have swing traded before with success. Due to the surge the stock experienced during the holding period I decided to sell the stock as I thought the rise would be met by a marginal fall - which it was. The dividend is great as a defensive measure and the fundamentals are also good. From my perspective it is far superior than its competitors in the technology - communications sector. This decision was a de facto buy as it has fallen again to roughly $40 (I sold at $43 previously).

    US Financials Portfolio Adjustment
    I was hoping to publish a 10 page or so analysis on the US financial sector but after reviewing my positions in the US financials sector I think it is unnecessary. After the financial crisis and great recession I think the financial sector is probably one of the best sectors to invest in this is because (1) the media and conventional wisdom has discounted much of the sector's profitability and (2) everyone is (or should be) rooting for the US financial sectors to do well.

    Having said in the last paragraph I am bullish in the long term for the sector, I am also in fear of macroeconomic events and the market in general that has led me to readjust my positions in US financials. JPM & GS which have both proved very good invests have been shortened to allow for BAC and because they are beginning to hit my fair value estimate of each of the stocks. Having said this, nothing has changed to warrant exiting the entire position of the stock and I still think the annual performance will beat the market.

    Sexy Short: SPY S&P500 SPDR ETF
    So I have decided to short the american market. It is initially intended to be as a hedge against my outstanding positions but I will be aggressively increasing my short position if the price rises above the entry position by 2+% to a 0.5-1% position. This is my first ever short position but I believe the fundamentals have been swayed to the side as the S&P500 has recently been climbing past 2,100. The fundamentals suggest there will be a deleveraging of some form in the market. The S&P500 is unsustainable at its current price level. It is also very hard to predict if the deleveraging will happen rapidly or over a longer duration of time,

    Although this is a fairly minimal explanation I intend to publish a much more detailed research of this position in the coming weeks.

    George Soros also increased his put option on this ETF last quarter. I have chosen to short the same security since it allows me to accuratley weight the portfolio more effectively.

    For a brief explanation of the CAPE ratio and a similar opinion from Uk value investor blog: http://www.ukvalueinvestor.com/2016/08/sp500-forecast.html/
     
    #17 Alexander Gray, Sep 12, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2016
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  18. Alexander Gray

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2016
    Messages:
    61
    Likes Received:
    23
    Daily Update #3

    In short
    Since I have nothing to report I will instead review how the portfolio is currently faring in the market.

    Highest Performer:
    AAPL has performed as expected. Although from a pure fundamental analysis of the stock, it has marginal value but from the outlook of a consumer brand in the macroeconomic climate we are currently facing, it seems like a very sensible addition to a portfolio (The PE ratio being a significant factor as well as brand value). Regardless of if AAPL comes up with new innovations - in my mind it seems profitable even with this due to the value of its brand and current products as well as successful and innovative brand marketing. I will continue to hold this stock at 10% weight of the portfolio although I may consider shortening the position after the price reaches $110+.

    Lowest Performer:
    WFC is down around 3% since my initial investment. I somewhat thought this as my position is fairly low (1%) however I do believe it will rebound in the coming months after the news has moved on from the company and the issues have been resolved sufficiently. I also do not intend on increasing this position unless it falls 5-7% from my initial investment, where I will (1) reconduct due diligence and (2) consider increasing the position to 2-3% if I still believe WFC is a good addition to the portfolio.
     
    #18 Alexander Gray, Sep 13, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2016
  19. Alexander Gray

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2016
    Messages:
    61
    Likes Received:
    23
    Daily Update #4

    In short
    It was my birthday today. Also, we are coming up to the 8th year anniversary of lehman brothers filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy which happened on the 15th september 2008. In terms of my portfolio, I have decided to increase positions marginally in certain stocks I am currently holding. Although contradictory to my former statement after much thought today I think it would be (1) illogical and (2) irresponsible to not buy at a discounted price to the original entry position. There is also a small new position.

    WFC has been increased from 1% to 2.5%. This is because it has (1) fallen close to 4% and (2) because I believe it may fall further, in that case I will possibly be able to readjust the position appropriately.

    PSX has been increased from 5% to 6%. This is because it has (1) fallen 2% and (2) because I think it is bound to perform well in the long run.

    F has been increased from 1.5% to 2.5%. This is because it has (1) fallen 2%.

    I have added a new position to the portfolio - KO. This is because it is a (1) safe dividend investment, (2) because I want to increase my exposure to the market to around 45%. The position is low at 0.5% as I forsee it potentially continuing to decline and anticipating adding to the position until it is around 2%.

    I do not feel I need to go into more detail about any of this since it has been explained adequately in the short section. But also, AAPL has surged today which is a relieving sign to see my initial due diligence pay off in such a way - it leads me to admire the beauty of the stock market as there is hidden potential everywhere whether on the sell side or the buy side. Even the smallest detail waiting to be found can lead to profitability.
     
  20. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    13,767
    Likes Received:
    7,050
    Hey Happy BDAY man! September seems to be a very popular month for birthday's haha. Hope it's a good one. Thank you for sharing your daily updates in here. I'm sure there are plenty of lurkers out who are reading this thread and appreciating that you're posting these here. Keep 'em coming!

    @Alexander Gray
     

Share This Page