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The Chartists Thread - Chart Setups and Trade Ideas

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Jan 16, 2017.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    The Chartists Thread - Chart Setups and Trade Ideas

    [​IMG]

    The purpose of this thread is simple, to not let a nice chart setup that either gets posted to the main daily discussion thread, or on a company specific thread get lost in the pile of other posts. This thread would essentially act as the charting central on Stockaholics if you will. A place for people to showcase their charts! These can be anything market related. Stocks, Indices, Forex, Bitcoin, you name it. If you have chart you want to share, this is your place to post it!

    While the title of this thread is mainly geared for "charts", it is technically not required to post a chart in here, but it is very much encouraged! If you do have a chart you'd like to share with the community, it would be helpful to also include some commentary to go along with your chart(s). It can be brief if you wish...but at the very least something so we can all get an idea of what you are showing us in your chart!

    So, w/o getting into further ado here, have at it with your charts and chart setups in here Stockaholics!

    Looking forward to seeing some great charts in here soon! :cool:
     
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  2. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    The daily chart on AAPL appears like it wants to correct.

    • In the larger structure it has only printed a secondary test (ST) of the buying climax (BC) and should need to build more cause (consolidate); stronger hands need to accumulate near or below the preliminary supply (PSY) line. This move off of the automatic reaction (AR) to the ST did not have exceptional volume and no exceptional large price-range bars that would indicate interest by the kind of buyers with serious business to execute. Rather it appears like routine buying by the public who need to be flushed out of the stock to make room for stronger hands.
    • It appears 5 waves have completed on the impulse to the ST; some sort of corrective wave structure should follow
    • There is negative momentum divergence between the peaks at 3 and 5.
    • It can't seem to tag the top of the Keltner channel this time up
    • Shortening of thrust on wave from 4 to 5 as compared to the other impulse waves 1 and 3.
    Daily:
    upload_2017-1-16_5-3-45.png
     
    #2 Onepoint272, Jan 16, 2017
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2017
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  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Great stuff @Onepoint272 thank you for starting this thread off with a bang! I'm a huge fan of your charts. ;)

    So, here was a chart that sorta caught my eye last week if you will. Nice day on Friday closing up on the day's high, and a convincingly break through the 50-day and also breaking into the large gap. I'm thinking this has some potential to run some (perhaps up to the 200-day?). It might be just a tad bit overextended on this daily frame though as we're up 8 of 9 days off the lows. Plus the volume was pretty blah on the rally. But, overall I am liking this for a continuation higher. Maybe finds support at around 11 where I have that horizontal line drawn on the upper wick of that post-ER gap candle. But, this looks poised for a move higher to maybe fill the gap in my opinion. We'll see.

    [​IMG]
     
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  4. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Nice. Definitely a lot of accumulation beginning with that gap down volume and then more into that lengthy decline into the low. One thing I've learned about massive accumulation like this, is that the volume on the way up does not need to be large. The reason being is that the large interests have so tied up the stock that they can hold it back from the market and severely limit the supply available to trade. The public has so few shares to trade that the price rises rapidly.
     
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  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Keeping an eye on this one for a potential bounce ... fugly chart but this to me looks a little overdone on the downside. Thinking a short-term bounce to perhaps those prior lows around $7-7.50 might be in order soon.

    [​IMG]
     
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  6. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Cy, on SNAK, just above, that last bar took one heck of a lot more volume to drop the same distance as the previous bar. It must be close to your bounce; big buyer stepping in and buying on the weakness.

    Cy you'd be the perfect compliment to a trader I knew back in the early 2000s. You're looking to play bounces off of a crash. He used to wait and then short the dead cat bounce back down for the retest of the low. He went by an appropriate handle: Pile Driver.

    On BETR, I charted it with 240-minute sticks (4-hr). I also examined it with a $0.25-box by 1-box-reversal point and figure and came up with objectives between 13.25 and 14.50, average 13.875.

    Phase E is confirmed, that is, an uptrend is confirmed; 2 higher lows and 2 higher highs and it broke above the 2nd high. There should be no significant going-back now until it reaches its objective. There could be some stepping-stone accumulations but for now that doesn't seem necessary; there is still no volume coming in; the big interests are apparently not having to sell many shares if any. Nevertheless, to play the game properly, I can't chase price and will wait for dip into the 10.50 area. Since it has more than 7 closes above the 5-period MA, I suspect it will bounce right back above it on a dip and then possibly consolidate a little.

    upload_2017-1-16_14-28-50.png
     
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  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Nice! Big time props for taking the time to delve into in that in great detail there @Onepoint272. That was really good stuff. [​IMG]

    Your chart post is precisely the kind of stuff I was envisioning for this thread when I started it up early this morning. Greatly appreciate the input here. You da man.
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    I had posted this over on the weekly thread last week, but thought to post it up in here as well, but over the past 1 month (or 21 trading days) the Dow 30 has been trading in a range of just 1.07% (using the closing prices) and a 1.42% (using the intraday high and low). That is evidently the smallest monthly range ever on record. No particular significance here, but just merely pointing this out. Interesting.

    [​IMG]

    Just How Boring Have Things Been? (Part 1)
    Posted by lplresearch

    A funny thing happened after the third-largest rally, since 1900, for the Dow from the U.S. election until year-end (+7.8%)—it is now in the midst of the smallest monthly range ever. That’s right, with the Dow flirting with the big 20,000 level, it has simply stopped moving, up or down, and the daily ranges have been historically small.

    Going clear back to 1900, using closing prices, the Dow has traded in a range of only 1.07% over the past month (21 trading days), for the smallest monthly range ever in history. The bottom line is tight ranges don’t stay that way forever, and higher volatility sometime later this year is very likely.

    [​IMG]

    Let’s consider another way to look at this: the intraday high-to-low range over the past month (21 trading days) has come in at an all-time low of only 1.42% over the past month (using intraday highs and lows). Going back to 1970, using reliable intraday data, only the summers of 2014 and 2005 were the other times to even see a range less than 2%.

    What makes the monthly range so rare for the Dow is it is also happening right near all-time highs. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “Incredibly, the Dow has now traded 45 straight days within 1.5% of the all-time high. When you consider the past month has also been the smallest monthly range ever, we have an index that climbed right up to 20,000 and simply froze.”

    [​IMG]

    Tomorrow, we will take a look at what appear to be some historically “boring” stats for the S&P 500 and what it could mean for equities.
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Paging @heyimsnuffles... I can't find where he posted this but I'm pretty sure he was looking for a move lower in the buck recently. Wasn't sure of his downside targets though. You thinking the dollar has topped out for now? And this eventually makes a move for the lower TL support? That's a pretty long ways down though.

    [​IMG]

    This is obviously important because this tends to move the previous metals. Gold for example which has seen a nice little move off the lows on the recent dollar weakness.

    [​IMG]
     
  10. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Bot 1/5 position in Cy's BETR (charts above) near close @ 11.06.
     
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  11. heyimsnuffles

    heyimsnuffles Active Member

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    Here we go. I have been Bearish dollar for Many reasons
    1. One technical reason is because it has moved into the .618 retracement from the big breakdown which you can see above.
    2. The dollar has "broken out" except the Euro has failed to break down and held multi year support for 3 weeks straight (Bears Fumbled)
    3. Emerging Markets held support and ripped up making higher highs, this is going to 40+ in my opinion.
    4. EVERYONE and there mom believe Rates are going higher and dollar is up. They may near the end of 2017, however bonds and rates RIGHT NOW are saying they are not.
    5. I believe most election moves are about to be unwound as you saw in the financials today.

    Below is the dollar and I am going to post some more charts and please comment on them.

    If dollar breaks 100 with authority I see it making a move to the 50 week MA at 97 AT LEAST. I think this is a massive failed breakout that will result in the dollar testing low 90s. the strong dollar was killing the other markets and the rest of the world, they are tired of it.

    [​IMG]
     
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  12. heyimsnuffles

    heyimsnuffles Active Member

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    EURUSD. I am a very Strong Euro bull and pound the table on this in my blog. In my chart of the week I see a MASSIVE FAILED BREAKDOWN and expect the Euro to rip the dollar bulls up and lead. I see 1.15-1.20 in 2017. This buying opportunity with minimum risk is something you can't miss.

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. heyimsnuffles

    heyimsnuffles Active Member

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    Emerging Markets. Such as Brazil, Sout[​IMG] h Korea, Mexico. I love them. EEM is the ETF for emerging markets and stocks. Look at this. EEM held and led the dollar breakdown.

    I see it breaking this and moving to 40.
     
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  14. heyimsnuffles

    heyimsnuffles Active Member

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    Lastly, RATES.

    Let's be honest....a 30 year bear market in Rates and Bull in Bonds is not going to give in THAT EASY. I am not surprised this held one bit and I expect TLT to head to 125-127 possibly 130. what happens when it gets there will likely be the biggest inflection point and decision of the next decade.

    Either 100 or 150.

    [​IMG]
     
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  15. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    ^^ nice. thx for chiming in with your charts & insights there @heyimsnuffles much appreciated :)

    ya that 97 area that you're targeting for the dollar index is about where i'm also looking to next should that 100 handle breach convincingly

    as for the e/u cross ... wow 1.15-1.20 in 2017 ... i don't think i know of anyone who is quite that bully on the euro this year ... it'll be very interesting to see if that does indeed play out here ... a nice recovery thus far though.

    nice charts overall ... thx for sharing!
     
  16. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Any other interesting chart setups you guys are eyeing out there? Also I'm thinking of giving this thread title a rename. Charts-ONLY sounds kind of blunt, no? I was thinking of something along the lines of maybe "The Chart Hub"? Or, "Chart Central". But, those to me don't seem very catchy or welcoming enough? Anyone have any good names we could give this thread? Basically, I'm looking for a title that best describes the purpose of this thread. Back on the old HSM boards this was simply called "Charts-ONLY" which meant only chart posts were allowed on the thread. But, after giving this some thought this week it would seem to me that the thread title sounds a bit unwelcoming to the viewer out there. Yes, the purpose of this thread is primarily for people who want to post up charts, but at the same time I don't want to discourage people who want to discuss people's charts, not just solely for posting up charts on every single post which is what "Charts-ONLY" kind of screams out at. Thoughts? Thx in advance! :)
     
  17. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Wherefore Chart Thou?
    God, Who Chart in Heaven
    Martial Charts
    Renaissance Chartists
    Charts and Crafts
    Beans? Give me the Charts!
     
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  18. Baggi

    Baggi Active Member

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    Guess I'll toss this here. I think for tomorrow we stay within this range. Not dropping below the yellow line and not going above the red. Friday, I think we finally break out. It's possible we have a false break out one direction or another, first.

    Range.jpg
    I think I'll enter a euro long trade.

    Any tips for a good entry point? Looking a little short term toppy right now.
     
  19. Baggi

    Baggi Active Member

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    Hrmmm, do I have two posts in one up there?

    How'd that happen? Thought I posted the top part yesterday??

    Confused.
     
  20. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Nice. Thx for those Marcy. I just went ahead and changed the thread title to:

    Charts and Crafts - The Official Stockaholics Charting Discussion Thread

    How's that looking now?
     
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