The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Well-Known Member

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    AMD earnings are at 5:00pm today. I currently own 0 shares but it's still a good report to see how the markets react to their AI outlook for the year.
     
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Sounds like a NO-BRAINER....Strathmore.
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A nice BIG FAT gain for me today. Every stock in the green. It was all led by PLTR which was up by +$20......or.....24% today

    I also beat the SP500 today by....2.33%.

    Now show me the CMG and GOOGL earnings.....and...on Thursday AMZN.
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE is GOOGL:

    Alphabet earnings are out – here are the numbers

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/04/alphabet-q4-earnings-report-2024.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Google parent company Alphabetreported its fourth-quarter resultsafter the bell Tuesday.

    Here are the numbers:

    • Revenue: $96.47 vs. $96.56 billion expected by LSEG
    • Earnings per share: $2.15 vs. $2.13 expected by LSEG"
    MY COMMENT

    Very preliminary.......so lets see what else is reported.
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Here is the real data from Investor Relations:

    "Alphabet Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2024 Results

    MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. – February 4, 2025 – Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG, GOOGL) today announced financial results for the quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2024.
    Consolidated Alphabet revenues in Q4 2024 increased 12% year over year to $96.5 billion reflecting robust momentum across the business.

    Google Services revenues increased 10% to $84.1 billion, reflecting the strong momentum across Google Search & other and YouTube ads.

    Google Cloud revenues increased 30% to $12.0 billion led by growth in Google Cloud Platform (GCP) across core GCP products, AI Infrastructure, and Generative AI Solutions.

    Total operating income increased 31% and operating margin expanded by 5% percentage points to 32%.

    Net income increased 28% and EPS increased 31% to $2.15.

    Sundar Pichai, CEO, said: “Q4 was a strong quarter driven by our leadership in AI and momentum across the business.
    We are building, testing, and launching products and models faster than ever, and making significant progress in compute and driving efficiencies. In Search, advances like AI Overviews and Circle to Search are increasing user engagement. Our AI-powered Google Cloud portfolio is seeing stronger customer demand, and YouTube continues to be the leader in streaming watchtime and podcasts. Together, Cloud and YouTube exited 2024 at an annual revenue run rate of $110 billion. Our results show the power of our differentiated full-stack approach to AI innovation and the continued strength of our core businesses. We are confident about the opportunities ahead, and to accelerate our progress, we expect to invest approximately $75 billion in capital expenditures in 2025."

    https://abc.xyz/assets/a3/91/6d1950c148fa84c7d699abe05284/2024q4-alphabet-earnings-release.pdf

    MY COMMENT

    Looks pretty good....but who know what the expectations were and how the media will spin the earnings and guidance.
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    AND....here is the short term media and traders....."vote"....regarding the earnings.

    Alphabet stock tumbles after cloud revenue miss, cap-ex growth.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alph...oud-revenue-miss-cap-ex-growth-210708945.html

    How I miss the old days when the only thing said or seen about earnings was a glossy brochure that you got in the mail from the company. This obsessive analysis from the media and the big analysts is ridiculous. It does nothing to support business and often simply means that good earnings are totally ignored and disrespected. BALONEY.
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE is CMG:

    Chipotle Q4 earnings largely meet Wall Street estimates as it delivers conservative guidance


    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chip...delivers-conservative-guidance-211235510.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Chipotle (CMG) had to fight off multiple headwinds to meet expectations for its fourth quarter.

    The burrito chain contended with inclement weather and tough comparisons to its second quarter, where its chicken al pastor boosted results. Same store sales for its fourth quarter and full-year earnings, which came out Tuesday after market close, jumped 5.4% and 7.4%, respectively.

    New CEO Scott Boatwright, who reported to former CEO Brian Niccol as chief operations officer since 2017, called it "another outstanding year" where the company delivered "strong transaction" driven sales-growth each quarter and expanded margins.

    For fiscal 2025, the company expects same-store sales to increase in the low to mid-single digit range. It also plans to open between 315 to 345 locations. The chain has over 3,700 restaurants and aims to reach 7,000 in North America.

    This is the first guidance set under Boatwright. The Street may find it conservative — Stifel Chris O'Cull expected the full-year same store sales growth in the mid-single digit range, keeping with Wall Street consensus estimates of 5.3%, he wrote in a note to clients.


    Earnings estimate breakdown
    Here's Chipotle posted for its fourth quarter results, compared to Bloomberg consensus estimates:

    • Adjusted earnings per share: $0.25 versus $0.25

    • Revenue: $2.85 billion versus $2.85 billion

    • Same-store sales growth: 5.4% versus 5.67%

    • Average check growth: 1.4% versus 1.29%

    • Traffic growth: 4% versus 4.41%
    For the full fiscal year, here's what Chipotle reported, compared to Bloomberg consensus estimates:

    • Adjusted earnings per share: $1.12 versus $1.12

    • Revenue: $11.3 billion versus $11.32 billion

    • Same-store sales growth: 7.4% versus 7.4%
    • Average check growth: 2.1% versus 1.99%
    • Traffic growth: 5.3% versus 5.45%

    Investors are waiting to hear more about the potential impact of tariffs. The Trump administration announced a 25% tariff on Mexican an Canadian imports, set to take effect in about a month's time.

    That could affect avocado pricing, a key ingredient for Chipotle. In the quarter, food, beverage and packaging costs accounted for 30.4% of total revenue, a jump of 29.7% from the year prior.

    The change was driven by the company's effort to ensure "consistent and generous portions," a protein mix shift due to its Smoked Brisket offering, and "to a lesser extent, inflation across several items including higher avocado and dairy costs,
    " per Chipotle's release.

    TD Cowen analyst Andrew Charles estimated that 85% of Chipotle's avocados are imported from Mexico. Tomatoes are another major Mexican import.

    Avocado supply is already tight, per Wells Fargo agricultural economist Michael Swanson. Charles projects that avocados make up roughly 7% percent to 11% of Chipotle's cost of goods, though tomatoes only make up low-single digits.

    Higher menu prices, including a 2% increase in December, offset the inflation for the quarter and the year.

    "We think about value very differently [than competitors] at Chipotle," Boatwright said to Yahoo Finance in December.

    "I think about it as an equation, as benefit over price," he said. "As price moves up, benefit has to improve at the same pace to keep value the same for the consumer."

    Meanwhile, the potential release of Chipotle Honey Chicken as a limited time offering in March has Wall Street excited. Per Charles, it could provide a 50 basis point tailwind in first quarter 2025, relative to the fourth quarter.

    Deutsche Bank analyst Lauren Silberman called "concerns on underlying fundamentals ... overblown" in a note to clients.

    She added that the team expects "strength to continue in 2025, supported by a strong innovation and marketing pipeline" including the Chipotle Honey Chicken.

    Throughput also remains "one of the most meaningful multi-year traffic drivers," she wrote."

    Automating the kitchen will be crucial to Chipotle's expansion.

    In October 2023, Chipotle and Hyphen introduced a digital makeline, in which a burrito bowl or salad travels along a conveyor belt while the system automatically dispenses each ingredient into the bowl. The process is currently in the testing phase in Southern California restaurants.

    Boatwright said the company "fully [intends] to leverage that automation" to fulfill online orders, which make up 65% of bowl and salad orders. It only takes the makeline 30 to 60 seconds to complete a bowl, freeing up employees to work on burritos or in-store orders.

    In September 2024, it added Autocado, a robot that peels and cores avocados for guacamole, to local testing.

    Additionally, produce slicers are being rolled out to help with prep and ensure "consistent cut sizes.""

    MY COMMENT

    I dont remember another earnings that so totally matched expectations. A good report and I am still liking this company as a long term holding....although for me it is still a micro-position. Some day I will have some extra money to add to it.

    What I really like is the brief comment that "Margins" expanded.
     
    TireSmoke likes this.
  8. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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  9. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Looks like the earnings are getting a red showing in most of the above...after hours at the moment.
     
  10. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Nice to see the market move on today from the previous tariff tantrum.

    Although, moving the drama on down the road another 30 days is just going to be added noise and drama to be used at a later date. And of course, now it is China's turn. It didn't get much attention today, although the media tried to push it as best they could.

    There is always something going on in this big ol' world it seems. It is amazing that we can still generate long term wealth despite all of the noise and distractions. That may change someday as has previously been pointed out. Until then....we just have to keep sailing on.
     
    TireSmoke likes this.
  11. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    PLTR mentioned earlier upthread. Impressive gain today for sure.

    I like their work with our military to be on the cutting edge of this new front. I can only imagine how quickly this area will continue to evolve.
     
  12. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Well-Known Member

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    Poor AMD can't catch a break! Such a great company and CEO but the stock price constantly takes a beating. I made the right choice getting out of it and moving it over to NVDA but I still believe in the company and want to see it prosper. But, You don't want to marry your stocks! End of the day it's about making money for sitting back and doing nothing.
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    It is not.....retail investors.....that are causing the market weakness. They are mostly locked in for the long term.

    Tech investors are aggressively buying the dip: Morning Brief


    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tech...y-buying-the-dip-morning-brief-110034264.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Two market shocks less than three weeks into Trump's second presidential term have revived a playbook familiar to tech investors: "Buy the dip" is alive and kicking.

    Tariff fears sparked the latest rout Sunday evening, sending small-cap stock futures down 4% overnight — only to recover nearly all the losses by Tuesday close.

    Only a week before, "fears" of cheap AI from the likes of Chinese up-and-comer DeepSeek sent chip stocks crashing, led by AI poster child Nvidia (NVDA).

    On both occasions, investors not only bought the dip, but many bought it in the most aggressive way possible: with leverage.

    On Monday, Jan. 27, Nvidia suffered a 17% decline — its worst since the depths of the early pandemic in 2020.

    Yet, ETF strategist Todd Sohn, CMT of Strategas ETF Research, recently wrote in a note to clients that the GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA ETF (NVDL) pulled in $1.6 billion singlehandedly last week. That product seeks to deliver twice the daily returns of the underlying Nvidia stock, which means that last Monday's 17% NVDA loss was inflated to 34% in the leveraged product.

    "It's a reflection that the 'buy the dip' mentality still exists for Tech," said Sohn.

    According to Vanda Research, during the height of the Nvidia washout, retail traders were funneling cash into the market at the highest rate since the November election period.

    "Mom-and-pop traders poured roughly [$4.25 billion] of new capital into US financial markets," said Vanda, measuring both ETF and single-stock flows over two market days.

    This "buy the dip" mentality isn't new, but it's become nearly reflexive. Years of easy money and rapid rebounds during the quantitative easing-driven years of global financial crisis recovery up through the COVID rebound conditioned a generation of traders.

    This mentality has a good chance of being tested again soon. (And maybe again, and again.) So far this year, markets have been sensitive to event risk, as the DeepSeek and tariff developments have shown. And with an active president in the first year of his term, stocks are already navigating a seasonally choppy stretch — one that tends to invite volatility even in calmer times. Factor in the sheer number of market-moving headlines, and even the most bullish strategists acknowledge turbulence ahead.

    As Tuesday's close underscored, this market may be sensitive, but the dip-buying optimism is unbowed."

    MY COMMENT

    The tale of two markets. the short term is being totally driven by the speculators, the traders, the gamblers, and most importantly the headline trading AI Systems. The longer term markets are the little retail investors.

    It is clear who will win out in the end.....the little retail investors....if we can avoid the short term MORONS destroying the entire market system.
     
    TireSmoke likes this.
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    This is the perfect sample of what drives the news headline trading AI SYSTEMS. This headline is.....BS. There is NOTHING in this article to document...."SLUMPING"....cloud sales. There is ONLY a small miss of cloud expectations. There is also NOTHING in the article about investors being spooked.

    See this is how the modern media works......when I go to the site......"YAHOO FINANCE"..... this is the headline I see.....trying to lure me to click on it.

    "ALPHABETS SLUMPING CLOUD SALES SPOOK INVESTORS"

    Here is the headline....on the actual article.... when you click on the BAIT above:

    Alphabet stock tumbles after cloud revenue miss, spending growth

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alph...d-revenue-miss-spending-growth-210708696.html

    Here is the ONLY content in the actual article that is even close to what is HEADLINED:

    "Advertising revenue topped out at $72.4 billion versus expectations of $71.7 billion, while Google Cloud revenue hit $11.9 billion in revenue, falling short of the $12.1 billion Wall Street anticipated.

    Cloud growth is an important metric for Alphabet as it seeks to gain market share from rivals Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT). Microsoft's cloud revenue jumped 21% year over year during its most recent quarter, climbing to $40 billion. Still, that was shy of Wall Street's expectations of $41.1 billion, sending shares of the Windows maker lower."

    Take out the irrelevant content about MSFT in the quote above and the ONLY content about GOOGL cloud revenue is:

    "Google Cloud revenue hit $11.9 billion in revenue, falling short of the $12.1 billion Wall Street anticipated."


    So in....MEDIA TALK......a slight miss of expectations of cloud revenue becomes a......GASP......"SLUMP". At the same time there is nothing to support the claim that investors are........"SPOOKED".

    A classic case of media BS.
     
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The article above is right next to the one about investors aggressively buying the dips......very disorienting stuff.....when taken together. LOL.
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES....the markets would operate much smoother if we did not always have to meet the "EXPECTATIONS" of non-management and non-company market "experts".

    These people are actually MORONS......but they have now taken over control of short term investing. They set up the expectations and than they go on and on and on when those expectations are not met to their satisfaction. There is ALWAYS some little part of earnings or guidance they are not satisfied with.

    Why "they" are allowed to call this stuff is beyond me.......they NEVER see or talk about the BIG PICTURE....of the companies they are creating the expectations for. They nit-pick little bits and pieces of earnings and guidance.

    As a long term investor the one thing I care about is the......WHOLE....the BIG PICTURE....of the business I own.
     
    #23156 WXYZ, Feb 5, 2025
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2025
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Here....for example....is how the positive is IGNORED and acknowledged at the same time.

    "Google stock falls after missing revenue expectations despite strong momentum"

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alphabet-stock-falls-missing-revenue-214522982.html

    Google's rising holiday's season ad sales aren't enough to ease worries about AI letdown

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/googles-ad-sales-rose-robust-213556546.html

    Google is spending massively on AI—but an analyst says it’s making the ‘right moves at the right time’

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/google-spending-massively-ai-analyst-123536369.html

    MY COMMENT

    The media has one move.....bait for clicks. That means NEGATIVITY and scary headlines. The stories above.....on the flip side show:

    The company earnings are showing..... "STRONG MOMENTUM"......"RISING HOLIDAY SALES".....MASSIVE SPENDING ON AI ( a very good thing for future growth and earnings).

    Basically you will.....NEVER see or hear the positive....in earnings coverage.
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Here is a rare bit of TRUTH.....but it is behind a paywall.

    "Alphabet Earnings Beat Expectations. Why the Stock Is Tumbling."

    https://finance.yahoo.com/m/e88be967-65fb-3b90-a874-1d5b1c93906c/alphabet-earnings-beat.html

    As to why the stock is moving down......and.....at the same time pointing out the STUPIDITY:

    "Google Spanked On 2025 Capital Spending But Meta Platforms Gets Pass"

    https://www.investors.com/news/technology/google-stock-googl-google-earnings-q42024/?src=A00220

    MY COMMENT

    The current media coverage of earnings and everything else to do with business drives me CRAZY.

    It is irrational and at time simply dishonest. It is often created by MORONS that have no clue about business, investing, or the topics they are writing about. It is formulaic click bait.

    So I wasted a bit of time documenting some it in the posts above. I did this to show the STUPIDITY of the short term and what drives the short term.

    This is why the short term markets are IRRATIONAL....because the AI TRADERS are micro-second trading these headlines. All those AI SYSTEMS have HUGE money and leverage behind them....and they basically MANIPULATE the short term markets with their massive trades and power and money. Of course this is....all legal....even though the all act in concert.

    As I said I want to see ONE THING......on the stocks that I own.....THE BIG PICTURE.
     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I am actually doing OK today even though I only have three stocks in the green. It helps that one of the three is NVDA. The other two are COST and HD.

    My "FEELING" for the market today is that it will moderate the losses as the day goes on.......this open today is a HUGE over-reaction.
     
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