The employment revision now makes it look like the tax cuts didn't boost employment in 2018. There are often sharp employment revisions which is why the first BLS reading can’t be fully relied upon. The latest revision was horrible. Job creation was revised lower by 501,000 making this the worst revision since 2009. Retail trade created 146,400 less jobs. Leisure and hospitality created 175,000 less jobs. Professional and business created 163,000 less jobs. It’s not that job growth fell. It’s that these jobs were never created and the original calculation was wrong. This March 2019 preliminary benchmark will get its final revisions published in January 2020. It takes that long to see how the labor market really did. The chart below shows the yearly change in the number of jobs. english news capread
I wouldn't disagree with your statistics but it is difficult to believe the labor market wasn't strong last year, as the economy was really booming. This year, it's easy to cast a skeptical eye on the numbers because, while the economy remains strong, it does not seem to be expanding like it was last year. Government numbers have long been suspect but I stopped trusting them on January 20, 2017. Even people who like Trump tend to acknowledge the massive pressure the administration exerts on people and departments to misrepresent the truth. I'm not sure we will ever return to a position of trust, with regard to government stats. That is regardless of what party or person occupies the white house.
For employment indicators, I look to several stocks. They seem to provide a more accurate insight into employment numbers than the government published data. For example, I monitor Norbord quarterly statements to get an idea of housing starts. You cannot build a home in 2019 without OSB and LVLs. Norbord just came off a boom quarter so I expect the housing industry to remain healthy, at least on the short term. The news has reported a housing slowdown but I trust Norbord's sales numbers far more than the news. Automobile sales are easy to track directly and other industries all have their own indicators.
