1) The Bank of England Throws Money at the Brexit The Bank of England is afraid of the Brexit, so they’re throwing everything including the kitchen sink at the problem. This morning, the BoE cut rates by 25 bps, expanded its QE program by 60 billion pounds, and started a new 10 billion-pound corporate bond purchase plan. The BoE took a massive hack at its growth forecasts, and now sees 2017 GDP at 0.8% vs. 2.3% previously, the biggest cut in its history. 30-year UK Gilt yields dropped to all-time lows, and European equity markets rebounded intraday. The UK’s FTSE 100 Index rose 1.6%, while the German DAX was up 0.6%. 2) The Grind Continues Markets have been in a holding pattern over the past few days ahead of tomorrow’s pivotal NFP report, which could move markets in a big way. (more on this below) And the S&P 500’s epic boring sideways grind continued today with the index rising 0.02% to 2164.25. Not 2%, not 0.2%, but 0.02%. So you have some perspective on the action, the index has not made a 1% move since July 8, and market volatility is even lower now than during the April-May snoozefest. In fact, S&P 500 volatility hasn’t been this low since December 2014! Check out this chart of S&P 500 volatility: No wonder we can’t stay awake… Once again, the Russell 2000 showed a smidge of outperformance, though biotech (IBB) cooled off after 2 days of solid action. The Bank of England’s stimulus package pushed up gold and US Treasuries, and crude oil notched a 2.4% gain on what appears to be short covering. Energy stocks were mixed, but high-yield bonds were strong. When crude oil goes up, high-yield energy bonds perform well because default expectations fall. 3) NFP Preview Traders are expecting a 180K increase on nonfarm payrolls with a 4.8% unemployment rate. (see the full consensus estimates below) Last month, we saw a huge 107K beat on the headline number, which just about made up for the 122k miss the month before. Gold and bonds dipped on that report, and then ripped like mad. Equities followed through on the decline in rates with a big 1.5% rally in SPX. At this point, it seems like it may take a big headline number to get traders believing the Fed will hike rates — perhaps 250K or more — and it would also help to have the June number revised up.
A market on a personal basis it is what you make it. Make your buys when they become oversold and sell them when they become overbought and preferablly during a big marke rally. This is after you have kicked the tires on said stocks. I really like the old dot.com days. Like Warren Buffet had said: "In 1995, if a monkey had thrown a dart, at the stock page, the monkey on average would've made 150 percent. TTT
"In 1995, if a monkey had thrown a dart, at the stock page, the monkey on average would've made 150 percent. yes I remember clearly.. those where the daysss .. I was there .... still spend those profit
