TSLA - Tesla Inc

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Administrator, Mar 21, 2016.

  1. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    That is a trader problem, not an investor problem.
     
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  2. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Apparently, LG Chem has approached Tesla with regard to a supply contract for cells. This isn't necessarily a direct result of the cancelled fourth plant at Ultium. We are left to speculate a possible connection.

    [Edit: LG has had a supply contract with Tesla for a long time. Apparently, they have approached Tesla with an offer of additional cells from their AZ plant.]
     
    #3542 TomB16, Jan 27, 2023
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2023
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  3. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    No argument there, but speaking of traders, $170!

    Tough to wrap your head around a market cap like TSLA doing +70% in this short of a time frame!
     
  4. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I listened to the first 90 seconds of an Electric Viking piece on the Tesla $25K car that has been in development for years.

    Why do people seem to think this is a great idea? Why do people think this is good for automakers? It is not a good idea for EV manufacturers. It is not a case of the first manufacturer to create one will win some sort of a race.

    Tesla sold every more expensive, much higher margin, car it could make last year. Why would they create a new platform that is going to have massive demand to out strip demand for the Y and take battery cells away from the more lucrative platform?

    Given Tesla's galactic lead in cell supply, any manufacturer that creates a cheap EV is going to go broke much more quickly than Tesla would. It's a bad idea for Tesla and suicide for others (who aren't Chinese... they live in an upside down world). Imagine having to replace battery packs in 2M cheap, low margin, cars? You know, the way Porsche had to with the Taycan (after bragging about their superiority). If there is a quicker way to go broke, I don't know what it is.

    Tesla is not waiting on the design studio or on factory construction. They need to focus on building as many Y as they can because there is more demand than supply.

    In fact, there is way more justification in a next generation 3/Y than there is a 25K budget EV. I think a next gen 3/y is likely design complete and waiting on 4680 scale to begin production. As soon as it is announced, they won't be able to give away the current design. I'm not sure if they will redesign the 3 or Y first. Y is larger volume but the 3 is older. Tough to say but I doubt they will do both at once.

    Meanwhile, I understand the semi is *only* being built with 4680 cells. That's OK, as it's a low volume product. The Roadster NG will be the same. These platforms have been heavily delayed due to cell availability.

    Once Tesla has to throttle 3/Y production, we are more likely to see a 25K Tesla. Elon has $200B to earn back.

    The process is as follows:

    - produce expensive, low volume EVs
    - learn as much as you can
    - learn how to make battery packs that can last and don't cost the company an existential, fleet wide recall
    - only then... produce more affordable EVs
     
    #3544 TomB16, Jan 27, 2023
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2023
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  5. Spud

    Spud Well-Known Member

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    Papa Elon works in mysterious ways. I reckon tweetergate isn't going bankrupt and the Tesla board isn't trying to relinquish his jedi powers any time soon. Can you imagine that? :lauging:

    It's all about laying the rope on the ground. :D
     
  6. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Nobody said tweetergate was going to bankrupt the company, but him bashing the left does not help the image of the brand.

    The affect of him owning the libs on actual sales was not going to be in Q4, its the Q1 and Q2 numbers, future orders that will, if at all, show if his twitter antics will affect sales.

    Also consider the 20% drop in price will very likely juice the sales higher, but its the margins that we need to watch.

    Bottom line is, a CEO bashing the political beliefs of his largest consumer base is not a good thing for any brand.
     
  7. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    this is from the los angeles times . no subscription, so no access to story. the headline pretty much says all i need to know.

    Editorial: California electric car sales are zooming. Too bad they’re mostly Teslas
     
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  8. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    That is an interesting headline. They lament majority Tesla EV sales despite Tesla having the only production facility in the state.

    This supports Stockjock-e's contention Elon has alienated a bunch of potential customers.
     
  9. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    It appears gm and lg are having a bit of a tiff and both Tesla and Ford have scooped some capacity that was previously going to GM.
     
  10. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    We will only really see if his Twitter antics have affected sales in the next quarter coming up, but keep in mind we also had a 20% price cut.

    The only reason Elon would toss in a 20% price cut is if a) there was a notable drop in pre-orders or b) increased competition from other EV makers or c) both a and b.

    How much of the drop in pre-orders was because him owning libs on twitter and how much was because of economic and competitor reasons?

    Its a mixed bag, there will be no clear way to discern.
     
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  11. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    This is something different. I don't think it's clear that Elon has hurt the company but it is clear that his behavior has affected the mindset of many.

    I suspect his "own the libs" conduct will onboard some customers, as others exit. While I have no idea of the ratio, I suspect he has alienated more people than he has warmed. Whatever the case, Tesla has had more demand than supply for many years so I don't see how any of this will be reflected in the Q1 ER.

    You guys who claim Tesla has a demand problem seem to specifically avoid talking about all factories running full tilt for the entire year. Shanghai did idle the last week of December but car factories do this from time to time and they were dealing with severe supply constraints. Tesla's demand problem would have been a dream to big three auto, had they been in Tesla's shoes.

    One of the biggest mistakes in investing is declaring what you want to be the case to actually be the case. IMO, this is a poor way to go through life but 99% of people get by with it. With investing, there is an objective measure of right and wrong to decide how well we all do. Why do you think so many people lie about their gains? lol!
     
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  12. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Tesla factories working at max capacity is a very bullish indicator, no argument there.

    Nice website here showing the different car makers in every county:
    https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-repo...e-and-infrastructure-statistics/new-zev-sales

    California phasing out ICE by 2035 is a rising tide will lift all the boats, Tesla stands to benefit the most due to their lead, but I suspect increasing pressure from competitors will hit margins harder and harder in the coming years.
     
  13. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    This helps keeping those pre-orders coming

    upload_2023-1-30_13-45-33.png
     
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  14. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Something is driving this. There is a ton of capacity about to come online at Giga Texas that Elon is trying to soak up.

    I'm sure Elon has tweeted about this but I removed my bookmark to Twitter when I saw Elon walk into the head office carrying a large, ceramic, sink.
     
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  15. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    His owning of the libs has been in decline, there hasnt been a single tweet about wokism in at least two weeks.
     
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  16. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    He apologized to the Pelosi family, as well.

    I've lost a lot of friends to Q conspiracies. It's heartbreaking. Elon has fallen into the black hole of Q which is nothing short of mental illness. For the moment, he seems to have bounced back OK. His intellect has not changed but his emotional stability is in a state which makes him unfit to be CEO.


    Stockjock-e, the rest is not directed at you specifically.

    This prevents me from owning Tesla. I have no doubt, Tesla will do well but I do not want to be partners with someone who is unfit to lead their company.


    A friend of mine who I've known for 30 years as a humanitarian. He is a retired military person with a long track record of championing good causes. That's how I met him. I have massive respect for him and what he has done. A few weeks ago, he sent me a 4.5 hour podcast that justified and called for a return of slavery. It wasn't veiled or hidden in any way. Slavery. It walked right through the door in broad daylight.


    If Tesla can produce 2M vehicles per year and they have 5M vehicle annual demand, Elon can alienate half of the potential customer base and still not have enough production to meet demand. When production goes slack, we have no way to know if it would have done without Elon's obnoxious behavior and comments.

    This one will never be proven but I certainly recoiled from some of Elon's comments. That says a lot because I consider myself a pretty strong champion of Elon.
     
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  17. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Waymo and Cruise are struggling with robotaxi rollouts in the San Francisco area.

    Both of these systems use micro-data approaches, over giving AI full control. I mention this not in support of Tesla's AI approach.

    I do believe in Tesla's approach but it has not proven itself capable of operating unsupervised, either.
     
  18. Spud

    Spud Well-Known Member

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    It was a indication of the trash being booted to the curb. :lauging:

    If that's the case he would be a great politician. :cool2:
     
  19. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Same, I also lost a friend or two very early on to the Qhole, its very sad.

    I will have to disagree with Elon being a victim to it. I think its more a fun game to him when he says things like prosecute Fauci. He knows that kind of tweet will blow up and be all over the news, driving massive views to twitter, which is the reason he does it. The more outrageous the tweet, the more coverage it gets from media who won't stop talking about it until something new comes along.

    He is controlling the narrative, everybody else is running around reacting to it exactly the way he wants them to.
     
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  20. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    Gotta agree. He owns Twitter now. Outrage sells. He is definitely having fun throwing gasoline on fires.
     

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