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Wave Analysis from InstaForex

Discussion in 'FOREX Forums' started by InstaForex Gertrude, May 10, 2016.

  1. InstaForex Gertrude

    InstaForex Gertrude Active Member

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    Aussie messed up the policy

    Following Donald Trump, other representatives of the US administration called on the Fed to lower the Federal funds rate. Vice President Michael Pence and chief economic adviser to the head of state Larry Kudlow believe that the economy works very well and the time has come to further disperse it by easing monetary policy. However, the US central bank has not yet followed the White House. Moreover, his colleagues from Australia have the best chance of monetary expansion. According to estimates of the derivatives market, the likelihood that the RBA will reduce the cash rate to a record low of 1.25% at the May meeting, is at 50: 50. It is interesting that even here it can not do without pressure from politicians.
    Australia will have Parliamentary elections on May 18, and regardless of who comes to power (for now, according to opinion polls, Labor is in the lead), the new government will focus on stimulating monetary and fiscal policies. A significant slowdown in GDP growth in the second half of 2018, cooling of retail sales and a fall in real estate prices require increasing consumer activity. It is possible that the Reserve Bank will become a hostage of the current ruling party. 17 out of 42 experts polled by Reuters expect that at a meeting on May 7 it will reduce the cash rate by 25 bp. Most experts believe that by the end of the year the rate may fall to 1% against the background of a significant slowdown in inflation.
    Australian Inflation Dynamics and RBA Rates

    [​IMG]

    It should be noted that in recent months, the RBA's outlook has changed significantly. If in December Philip Lowe said that monetary policy could be tightened for the first time since 2010, in February he focused on keeping the rate at 1.5%, by April he began to hint at monetary expansion. If it does happen, the RBA will be the first central bank of a developed country to decide to reduce borrowing costs. According to AMP Capital, the beginning of the monetary easing cycle will lead to the peak of AUD/USD to 0.6.

    While the "bears" on the aussie rely on the weakness of the Australian economy, "bulls", on the contrary, adopt external factors. BofA Merrill Lynch sees the analyzed pair at 0.78 by the end of the year, Goldman Sachs recommends buying it as the Chinese economy recovers. Even the best forecaster of Bloomberg, during the end of the first quarter Tempus Inc expects the growth of AUD/USD to 0.74 by the end of 2019. Donald Trump, who announced an increase in tariffs for imports from China, could spoil the karma for aussie fans. The market was confident that Beijing and Washington were about to sign the deal, but such threats undermined this belief, contributing to the deterioration of the global risk appetite.

    Technically, the implementation of the "Expanding wedge" and AB=CD patterns reinforces the risks of continuing the Australian dollar's downward hike to the target by 161.8% according to the latest model. It corresponds to $0.687.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
     
  2. InstaForex Gertrude

    InstaForex Gertrude Active Member

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    Brent: in war as in war

    When pursuing many goals, you need to be prepared for the fact that they will begin to contradict each other. With a statement about raising tariffs from 10% to 25% for $200 billion worth of Chinese imports from May 10, Donald Trump brought Brent and WTI down by more than 2%, but at the same time strengthened the dollar (safe-haven asset) against currencies of developing countries (risky assets) . The risks of escalating the trade conflict between the United States and China, the two countries, which account for one-third of global oil consumption, led to a swift attack on black gold, but information about the United States sending bombers and aircraft carriers to the Middle East messed up all the cards.

    The White House wants to punish Iran by reducing its oil exports to zero, but is unhappy with the growth of Brent and WTI quotes. Threats to Tehran to block the Strait of Hormuz, which will create serious supply disruptions, force Americans to demonstrate military force. At the same time, the growth of geopolitical tensions is a "bullish" factor for black gold. Try to make both goals accomplished at the same time!

    The problem with China is as difficult. Trump declares that the United States annually loses $600-800 billion from trade, of which $500 billion falls on China. This can no longer continue! But excuse me, historically, the US is a consumer country. The better their economy feels, the faster the import grows and the trade balance deficit widens. At the same time, threats to raise tariffs from May 10 and then impose the entire Chinese imports on them provoked a 6% collapse of the Shanghai Composite on fears of a slowdown in the largest Asian economy. If there is no V-shaped recovery in China's GDP, then one of the key drivers of growth of world stock indices and oil will disappear, triggering them into a deep correction.

    Dynamics of the Chinese stock and oil market

    [​IMG]

    Donald Trump will be pleased to rub his hands over the rollback of Brent and WTI, but the S&P 500's fall is unlikely to please him . At the same time, the dollar will strengthen, which the White House also does not want. The goals of the US president are often contradictory, but they can still be achieved. For example, during the trade war, China reduced the import of American oil from 430 thousand b/d to 100 thousand b/d. Potentially, thanks to the negotiations, not only will it return the previous figures, but also increase them by $12 billion a year.

    In my opinion, the further fate of Brent and WTI will depend on two factors: a trade war and a prolongation of the agreement between OPEC and other producing countries on reducing production. The signing of an agreement on the contract of trade friction between Washington and Beijing, as well as the extension of the terms of the obligations of the cartel and Russia will make it possible for oil to continue the rally. On the contrary, the escalation of the conflict between the largest economies of the world and the increase in world production will launch a serious correction in the oil market. Technically, this can be expressed in the growth of quotations of futures for the North Sea variety above the resistance by $72.75 and $75.65, or in their fall below the support by $68.45 per barrel as part of the transformation of the "Shark" pattern in 5-0.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
     
  3. InstaForex Gertrude

    InstaForex Gertrude Active Member

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    EUR/USD approaching resistance, potential reversal!

    [​IMG]

    Price is approaching resistance where we might see a corresponding drop in price to our first support level.
    Entry : 1.12270

    Why it's good : horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
    Stop Loss : 1.1277

    Why it's good : 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, pullback retracement
    Take Profit : 1.1144

    Why it's good : horizontal swing low support, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
     
  4. InstaForex Gertrude

    InstaForex Gertrude Active Member

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    EUR/GBP approaching resistance, potential reversal!

    [​IMG]

    Price is approaching resistance where we might see a corresponding drop in price to our first support level.
    Entry : 0.8587
    Why it's good : horizontal overlap resistance, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement Stop Loss : 0.8679
    Why it's good : horizontal swing high resistance
    Take Profit : 0.8587

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
     
  5. InstaForex Gertrude

    InstaForex Gertrude Active Member

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    GBP/USD approaching support, potential bounce!

    [​IMG]

    Price is approaching support where we are expecting a bounce above this level.
    Entry : 1.2930
    Why it's good : 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension Stop Loss : 1.2861
    Why it's good : horizontal swing low support
    Take Profit : 1.3053 Why it's good : horizontal overlap resistance, 50% Fibonacci retracement

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
     
  6. InstaForex Gertrude

    InstaForex Gertrude Active Member

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    USD/CHF reversed off resistance, potential for further drop

    [​IMG]

    Price reversed from our first resistance where there is potential for further drop.
    Entry : 1.0095 Why it's good : 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension
    Stop Loss : 1.0123
    Why it's good : horizontal overlap resistance, 100% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
    Take Profit : 1.0008
    Why it's good : horizontal overlap support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
     
  7. InstaForex Gertrude

    InstaForex Gertrude Active Member

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    EUR/USD 3 Star Sell Signal | Fundamental + Technical Analysis

    Fundamentals: Heightened transatlantic tensions drove the currency lower as EU is ready to retaliate against $23 billion of US goods with US auto tariffs deadline of 18 May approaching. Those duties would be based on the same national - security grounds invoked for controversial American levies on foreign steel and Aluminum. US tariffs on European cars and auto parts will mark a significant escalation of transatlantic tensions because the value of EU automotive exports to the America market is about 10 times greater than that of the bloc's steels and aluminum exports combined. Hence, if the auto tariffs are imposed, EU retaliatory duties would target a bigger amount of US exports to Europe. Elsewhere, Italian 2 year yield rose sharply while EUR plummeted on as Italy Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini said the nation is ready to break EU fiscal rules if necessary to boost employment.
    Technical analysis:

    [​IMG]

    Price is starting to break an ascending support line and we expect it to drop further to 1.1180. It reacted perfectly from our resistance level yesterday and is on track to reaching its profit target.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
     
  8. InstaForex Gertrude

    InstaForex Gertrude Active Member

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    Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 17/05/2019:

    [​IMG]

    Technical Market Overview:
    There is no rest for the bears on the GBP/USD pair as the market keeps doing the lower lows in the downtrend despite the extremely oversold conditions. The price just recently hit the technical support at the level of 1.2788 after a series of down candles were made in order the break out of the channel. The momentum is still weak and negative, so the next target for bears is located at the level of 1.2772.

    Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.3288
    WR2 - 1.3229 WR1 - 1.3095
    Weekly Pivot - 1.3031
    WS1 - 1.2885
    WS2 - 1.2821
    WS3 - 1.2676

    Trading Recommendations:
    The market is moving below the trendline, so the best trading strategy for daytraders is to open the sell orders during the local pull-backs. All the targets for this week have been hit already, so. please pay attention to the price action signs of reversal and candlestick patterns at the range support and range resistance to confirm the level for the trading position.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
     
  9. InstaForex Gertrude

    InstaForex Gertrude Active Member

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    Control zones NZDUSD 05/20/19

    The downward movement is a medium-term impulse, so selling is still a priority. It is not profitable to sell on Monday from current grades, since the target of the fall is the weekly CZ of 0.6470-0.6456. Any growth should be used as an opportunity to sell the pair. The first resistance will be WCZ 1/4 06545-0.6542.

    [​IMG]

    The downward trend is so strong that it will be possible to look for opportunities for buying only if a daily absorption takes place and the US session closes above Friday's maximum. This model will be the starting point in the formation of a deep correctional model, the next goal of which will be WCZ 1/2 0.6584-0.6577. While the pair will be trading below the specified zone, the bearish trend will not turn.

    [​IMG]

    Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
    Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

    Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
     
  10. InstaForex Gertrude

    InstaForex Gertrude Active Member

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    Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 21.05.2019

    [​IMG]

    Technical Market Overview:
    After making the local low at the level of 1.1150, the EUR/USD pair has tried to bounce or even rally higher, but this attempt was capped at the technical resistance zone located between the levels of 1.1167 - 1.1173 and the price reversed. The short-term outlook remains bearish and there is no signs or any trend reversal for now. The next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.1111.

    Weekly Pivot Points:
    WR3 - 1.1317
    WR2- 1.1287
    WR1 - 1.1208
    Weekly Pivot - 1.1178
    WS1 - 1.1099
    WS2 - 1.1069
    WS3 - 1.0986

    Trading Recommendations:
    The best trading strategy in the current market conditions is to sell the local pull-backs with a tight protective stop loss. Due to the oversold market conditions please pay attention to the candlestick trend reversal patterns and market trend reversal patterns. The next important technical support is located at the level of 1.1111 and this is the next target for bears.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
     
  11. IFX Yvonne

    IFX Yvonne Member

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    Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 22.05.2019

    Technical Market Overview:

    The EUR/USD market is still hovering around the technical resistance zone located between the levels of 1.1167 - 1.1174 with no intention of breaking higher so far. There were some attempts to rally but were quickly capped by the bears. The short-term outlook remains bearish and there is no signs or any trend reversal for now. The next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.1135 and 1.1111.

    Weekly Pivot Points:

    WR3 - 1.1317
    WR2- 1.1287
    WR1 - 1.1208
    Weekly Pivot - 1.1178
    WS1 - 1.1099
    WS2 - 1.1069
    WS3 - 1.0986

    Trading Recommendations:
    The best trading strategy in the current market conditions is to sell the local pull-backs with a tight protective stop loss. Due to the oversold market conditions please pay attention to the candlestick trend reversal patterns and market trend reversal patterns. The next important technical support is located at the level of 1.1111 and this is the next target for bears.

    [​IMG]

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
     
  12. InstaForex Gertrude

    InstaForex Gertrude Active Member

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    EUR/GBP approaching resistance, potential drop!

    [​IMG]

    Price is approaching our first resistance level.
    Entry : 0.8858 Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, channel's resistance
    Stop Loss : 0.8956 Why it's good : horizontal overlap resistance, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement
    Take Profit : 0.8773
    Why it's good :23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
     

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