NYSE:WBEV Company As reported in the Company’s Website: We are one of the fastest growing at scale wineries in the United States. Over the past two years we have grown by approximately 80% in case volume sold, with the sale of over 430,000 cases in 2020. Our growth is fueled by the joint capabilities of our data-driven brand development strategy paired with a true omni-channel distribution network. We believe our balanced platform is well- suited to gain market share and drive meaningful long-term growth in the approximately $400 billion Alcoholic Beverages market. Winc's mission is to become the leading brand builder within the alcoholic beverages industry through an omnichannel growth platform. Market & Competition From Company’s IPO prospect Technically speaking they describes themselves as an Omnichannel operator. They compare themselves to CTZ (Constellation Brands) which is real. They are online over 10 years so can’t be comparable to Naked Wines & other Ecommerce competitors. They have far less choice, compared to many others (like wine.com) but they have an interesting business model, a monthly subscription-based, to get revenues. More Facts & Less Marketing Let’s have a look at one of their first charts of the IPO document: They suggest that the company is growing at 56% YOY. Which is impressive, but we must take in account that most of the growth is due to “stay at home measures”. The Growth rate seems affected by “WWC” brand. It’s important to notice that excluding 2020 each brand reaches a “plateau” after 2-3 Yrs and Winc is in business over 10 years. Meaning that the growth can be achieved with new brands only & not by enhancing the old ones, which is not case here. Let’s dig deeper in these numbers by seeing the half year Reportin2021 : Half Year Report 2021 So, Let’s begin from the end. Wholesale, they sell also to Retailers their wines. There is a flat number of retailers involved in 2021 compared to end 2020 (7839 vs 7869). Looking into DTC business they register a growth in revenues from 24’823’000$ to 26’852’000$ - a 2029000$ Growth YoY – An 8,2% Growth The Valuation The base of clients is strong and revenue is increasing average by 10% per year. We estimate the increase in revenues in 2021 of about 8.12%. Then growth is expressed in mid-single digit (5-7% YOY). The fair value is 11,78$ in this scenario Very important on the industry level If they have a profit margin like STZ (Consellation Brands)14-15 % In 10Y the value will be: 22$ Insider Ownership In attachment are available top Firm owner: Top 12 shareholders own 49.38% of the company https://prnt.sc/226td8h https://prnt.sc/226tfjs Relevant insider Ownership is a good sign. No Selling ATM at this moment is good. Valuation Metrics Below is a table of relevant capitalization and valuation figures for the company: Source: Company Financials Very low debt/equity Ratio that is for sure a good sign. Interestingly they have a quite low P/S which is very good sign of steady base. Final Comments I must be sincere with you: 1. I do not understand their business model as an Italian Wine taster. But I like creating my wine according to my taste, which is very rare. So far, there are almost 8000 monthly subscription accounts, which is increasing over 8% per year, so I want to be in and idea to invest in such a rare model is very interesting. 1. The steady increase of Winc and success in the last ten years is over the projection given at the start of the company's formation. The stock has enormous potential to go over 20$ per share at any moment, which is a good sign that Winc can compete with more prominent brands. 2. From what I saw, this is a long-term investment strategy going steady without any fast fluctuation in any asset and price of the share. We should expect to increase the share price at any moment and be online from 8$ up to 22$. Also there is few version of the video presentation but I recommend you to watch this
