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What do you think will be the max. drawdown for this bear market?

Discussion in 'Stock Market Polls' started by bigbear0083, Mar 17, 2020.

?

What will be the maximum pullback on this bear market?

Poll closed Monday at 2:21 AM.
  1. -30% to -33.99%

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. -34% to -36.99%

    18.8%
  3. -37% to -39.99%

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. -40% to -42.99%

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  5. -43% to -45.99%

    18.8%
  6. -46% to -48.99%

    12.5%
  7. -49% to -51.99%

    6.3%
  8. -52% to -54.99%

    31.3%
  9. -55% to -57.99%

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  10. -58% or greater.

    12.5%
  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Poll: What do you think will be the max. drawdown for this bear market?

    [​IMG]

    OK, so I thought this might be an interesting poll to have up in here.

    I wanted to open this up for some good quality, and thoughtful discussions on the current state of the market, and how we all might see how this current bear market might end up playing out.

    I have posted a chart above of the S&P 500 index monthly chart going back over 20 years. I've highlighted in red squares each of the past 2 bear markets and their max. % pullback from peak to trough. As you can see, each of the prior 2 bears were of about -50% each respectively.

    Currently, we are at just a touch over -30% on this bear (calculating from the ATH made last month to our low print this morning).

    The one stark difference between this current bear market over the past 2, or really any of the previous ones since 1950 are that this one has occurred over a much shorter time period. In fact, this was the fastest bear market coming off of an ATH ever in history. Just 16 trading days!:eek:

    (Pulled from this thread)

    [​IMG]

    Here is a list of all the prior bears going back to 1950, their max. pullbacks, start and end dates, and other notes. I had posted this over on the main market weekly discussion thread over this past week btw. But, maybe worth a quick re-post in here as well.

    ======================================================================================

    The Bear Market of 1956-1957:

    Max. Pullback: -21.5%

    Start: August 6th, 1956

    Bottom: October 22th 1957.

    Recovery: Septemer 24th, 1958 (15 months to bottom; 11 months for recovery)

    Catalyst: The "Eisenhower Recession" of 1957-'58 that lasted 8 months.

    ======================================================================================

    The Bear Market of 1961-1962:

    Max. Pullback: -28%

    Start: December 13th, 1961

    Bottom: June 26th, 1962

    Recovery: September 3rd, 1963 (7 months to bottom; 14 months for recovery)

    Catalyst: Flash Crash of 1961-'62: The "Kennedy Slide". Market came close to the bottom again during the Cuban Missile Crisis in Oct 1962.

    ======================================================================================

    The Bear Market of 1966:

    Max. Pullback: -22.2%

    Start: February 10th, 1966

    Bottom: October 7th, 1966

    Recovery: May 4th, 1967 (8 months to bottom; 7 months for recovery)

    Catalyst: Financial Crisis/Credit Crunch of 1966.

    ======================================================================================

    The Bear Market of 1968-1970:

    Max. Pullback: -36.1%

    Start: December 2nd, 1968

    Bottom: May 26th, 1970

    Recovery: March 6th, 1972 (18 months to bottom; 22 months for recovery)

    Catalyst: 1969-'70 Recession - a "mild one" that lasted 11 months.

    ======================================================================================

    The Bear Market of 1973-1974:

    Max. Pullback: -48.2%

    Start: January 12th, 1973

    Bottom: October 3rd, 1974

    Recovery: July 17th, 1980 (21 months to bottom; 70 months for recovery)

    Catalyst: Oil crisis of 1973, 1973-'75 recession that lasted 17 months, stagflation (high unemployment & high inflation).

    ======================================================================================

    The Bear Market of 1980-1982:

    Max. Pullback: -27.1%

    Start: November 21st 1980

    Bottom: August 12th, 1982

    Recovery: November 3rd, 1982 (21 months to bottom; 3 months for recovery)

    Catalyst: Volcker tightening and 1981-'82 recession that lasted 18 months. Recession ended in 1982, as bear market recovered to prior peak.

    ======================================================================================

    The Bear Market of 1987:

    Max. Pullback: -33.5%

    Start: August 26th, 1987

    Bottom: December 4th, 1987

    Recovery: July 26th, 1989 (3 months to bottom; 20 months for recovery)

    Catalyst: Black Monday (Oct 19), but bottom was only in Dec. Recovery surprisingly long but Fed made a series of rate hikes in 1988 to fight inflation.

    ======================================================================================

    The Bear Market of 2000-2002:

    Max. Pullback: -49.1%

    Start: March 27th, 2000

    Bottom: October 9th, 2002

    Recovery: May 30th, 2007 (31 months to bottom - 56 months for recovery)

    Catalyst: Dot-com crash, 2001 recession, 9/11.

    ======================================================================================

    The Bear Market of 2007-2009:

    Max. Pullback: -56.8%

    Start: October 10th 2007

    Bottom: March 9th, 2009

    Recovery: March 28th, 2013 (17 months to bottom; 49 months for recovery)

    Catalyst: Housig bubble crash, Great Financial Crisis.

    ======================================================================================

    The Bear Market of 2020-?:

    Max. Pullback: -30.2% (so far...)

    Start: February 20th, 2020

    Bottom: ?

    Recovery: ?

    Catalyst: COVID-19, Oil crash.

    ======================================================================================

    Here it is for the visuals as well (NOTE: this includes the corrections on an "intraday" basis as well, not just on a closing basis as I like to use).

    [​IMG]

    I don't want to make this post too lengthy, but I just wanted to open this poll up to get some input from all of you on your thoughts on where we all might think the ultimate bottom will be for this bear.

    As you guys all know by now, I have a google spreadsheet that I maintain that lists all of the pullback levels going from 1-100%. :p

    Here is the screenshot listing from 30-54%

    It's interesting to me that a -54% correction on this bear would bring us back to the 2008 peak (or at least on the cash SPX). Could that be where things ultimately go in a worst case scenario for the market? That would also fall inline with the past 2 bears on the correction levels. Hmm, that is kind of interesting to me.

    [​IMG]

    Anyway, I will just leave this at that, and have you guys all vote and post some additional input if you guys wish. Hope to make this a great discussion thread to discuss the current bear market.

    Thanks for participating in advance everyone! :D

    [​IMG]
     
  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Oh and BTW all before I forget here, I'm not too sure how many of you maybe missed this post, but I had also set up a quick poll over this past weekend for you guys to vote on what "shaped" recovery you guys all think we might see here. Would be super cool to get some votes on there as well. Just sayin'. :p
     
  3. kyleh2k20

    kyleh2k20 New Member

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    -54%

    I think we go down to test the 2008 top in the SP500 and that will effectively act as strong support. But this won’t happen in a few days like the sell off from the ATHs happened lol. Thinking we bounce around here give or take during the Spring and Summer, then come election time the rug gets pulled from underneath and shit hits the fan.

    Disclaimer: l’ve got no skin in the game right now. SOH for now.

    BTW, nice thread idea!
     
  4. Three Eyes

    Three Eyes 2018 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    -58% or greater.

    The news isn't baked in yet, because all the news is not out yet in this rapidly developing global health care and economic situation.
     
  5. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Same, +50%

    This time there are repercussions that will linger way past the next 30 days.
     
  6. rStock

    rStock Well-Known Member

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    -34% to -36.99%
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    so, i had to think this one over for a bit, but i think i'm ready to call it now.

    i'll guess -52% to -54.99% as the bottom for this bear.

    funny cause @kyleh2k20 stole my thoughts lol.

    i'm right there with him that i feel like we can test the 2000 and 2007 bull market peaks in the SPX (1550ish) and that would bring us to a -54% correction from the ATHs on the nose.

    that's still a long ways down to go from where we are today.

    i feel that is the worst case scenario.

    interestingly, it would fall right inline with the 2000-02 and 2007-09 bear markets as they were both -50% declines from ATHs.

    i don't think we get there in a straight line though, like these past few weeks.

    i feel like things will get a bit squirrely come election time.
     
  8. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    -49% to -51.99%, hope I am wrong though :p I want life back to normal ASAP:(
     
  9. Ken34

    Ken34 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

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    46 - 48.99%
     
  10. Daniel Rizzo

    Daniel Rizzo New Member

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    I have mass mutual account, should I move my money around or just leave it ?
     
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    here's a quick update to the -% drawdown on a closing basis as of yesterday's close:

    -33.9% is the official bear bottom (as of right now) if things were to hold here.

    [​IMG]
     

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