Got the idea from a similar poll by @emmett kelly , think it could be an interesting one. This poll will be closed after 30 days from now. The recent lows for the SPX is 3636.87 Anyway, I will go with H1 2023
we are hovering around bottom as i type. and for all of you aspiring pollsters who wish to emulate me, you have to write the word "poll" in the topic heading. it doesn't automatically appear when you create a poll. other than that, good job. @stock1234
agreed with @stock1234 on the time frame for where the market bottom might happen. for me, i don't think there can be a true bottom set in until things get a whole lot worse out there. and for me, that's not anywhere near where we are today. with the cash spx having only pulled down -20% from the ATH. i say "only" cause if that's what the bottom of this bear is than that was about as mild of a bear as i've ever seen. with inflation ripping new assholes seemingly on a daily occurrence (i mean, unless you been living under a doggone rock, you can see with your own eyes at places like the grocery stores, etc), gas prices reaching the stars, economic indicators going to hell in a hand basket, and the FED talking up rate hikes like there's no tomorrow. that to me spells deeeeeep recession all over it. and i just don't see why the market should ever rally, except to work off extreme oversold readings whenever we sell down too much lol. you can't have your cake and eat it too. when we were in that ZIRP and QE-infinity environment for years and years, sure it made perfect sense to keep BTFD. but, that punch bowl (or as i sometimes like to call it, the cocaine the FED was feeding the market all these years) is gone now (for now), so this to me a 100% a STFR (sell the fucking rip) market and has been since our last ATH print in the majors at the start of this year. until inflation readings stop ripping new assholes on the upside, and all of the geopolitics settle down some, i don't see any bottoms in sight yet. sure, we'll have a few nice dead cat bear market rallies along the way no doubt. cause, you can't just move down in a straight line forever lol. bear rallies can be just as ferocious on the upside, as the moves on the downside. but, just because a bear rally is happening doesn't mean bottoms in. that's what i like to call a SUCKER'S RALLY lmfao. anyway, should be another super interesting half (H2) in this market. LEZZZZZ GOOOO!!! EDIT: oh, and we still have not seen a true "washout/capitulation" in this market down move yet. when i say "true" i mean when you see the major indices pegged down some -5% or greater across the boards. which might even set off the market-wide circuit breakers. the fact that the VIX has just been chillin' in the 20s for much of this correction/bear move whatever you wanna call it, just doesn't spell washout to me. still a lot more to go on the downside me thinks. for starters, i'm targeting the COVID lows around 2200 in the spuz as a target for this bear, which would be about a -50% haircut in total from the ATH -- which would just about match the GFC (great financial crisis) bear market.
I voted next Q. Why do you think that? Is it because sentiment is so bearish? I'm hearing that the bull-bear spread is at an extreme low; and of course the Fear & Greed Index went below 20, that is a pretty good indicator to buy. I voted next Q because some indicators still haven't signalled a bottom. eg we just had a 3 week losing streak, the VIX still pretty moderate, etc.
H1 2023 sounds about right to me. All the crap hitting the fan takes time to digest and work out. Christmas is going to suck this year! At least it will give investors time to come across some non essential money and invest in sales.
i think that because nobody knows where the bottom is. if we are going to guess, might as well be optimistic. edit: also, i called the s&p bottom at 3600 on another post. see the chart at your site of choice.
Define "bottom". It is quite possible that the market has not "bottomed" since 1994 or even 1987. I expect (am guessing) SPX 666 will be eclipsed in the next 1-3 years.