Bloomberg is reporting Tesla model 3 production at over 6000 cars per week. That's 312,000 cars per year. Add in the S/X and they have achieved an annual production rate of 400k cars today. Note Bloomberg plots an abysmal drop in production starting immediately, just as they always have. Just as they've always been wrong but continue to predict doom. lol! https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/ My thoughts on the relentless lie and smear campaign against Tesla are this: How would Ford fare if it was under the same media scrutiny? Ford recalled 874,000 trucks for fire risk. It was barely reported by the media. What if it was reported vigorously? What if there was endless media discussion about each fire incident involving a Ford? What if the articles were hyperbolized with titles like, "Another Ford Fire!" ? Do you think Ford could survive such an onslaught? I don't. Between damage to sales and severely hampering their ability to raise capital, I don't think Ford could survive. And yet, Tesla is surviving just such an onslaught. Tesla has some severely positive fans, arguably beyond realistic levels. Without these fans, I doubt Tesla could survive, either. Still, Tesla is surviving. I have no doubt, Tesla will achieve a 500k production rate by the end of 2019. Tesla is thriving. I have come to the conclusion that, at this point in time, Tesla is more durable than Ford.
Thats the curious part. If anything, you would assume that everybody should be cheering for electric vehicles to dominate, its just a matter of time! Never mind that environmental and geopolitical advantages, but its also AMERICAN MADE! Why is Tesla not pushing itself as the American patriot brand like Harley? Tesla is missing an opportunity to slap the "I AM A PATRIOT!" bumper sticker on every car they make here.
Tesla's (TSLA) Shrinking Market Cap In late April, we highlighted that Ford (F) had retaken Tesla (TSLA) in terms of market capitalization following a massive jump for Ford in response to earnings. Notwithstanding some weakness today on news of job cuts, in both terms of price and market cap, F has held pretty steady since that gap up. On the other hand, TSLA has continued its fall from grace from the title of largest US auto manufacturer that it earned for the first time back in 2017. Analyst downgrades today were the catalyst of an early 3%+ decline for TSLA, sending the stock to a 52-week low—its lowest level since December of 2016—further diminishing the company's market cap. TSLA is now similar to its size in early 2017. With a market cap of $4.8 billion less than Ford, it is also the lowest of the auto manufacturers. Meanwhile, with a market cap of roughly $52 billion, General Motors (GM) is now distinctively the largest automaker in the country.
Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG ,NASDAQ: GOOGL ) unit Waymo appears to have a big lead on the front, with Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA ) and myriad other automobile manufacturers launching their own efforts.
The CleanTechnica article is obviously incorrect with regard to cost reduction. Maxwell's dry anode should provide wildly improved cell production rates out of the same factory footprint. The solvent doped anode is, by far, the most expensive component in a cell, as far as I understand. The storage density improvements are less clear. Based on Elon's comment regarding tripling battery life at the autonomous driving event, it seems unlikely CT is correct here, either. Meanwhile, enjoy the fire sale on Tesla stock.
Tesla moved down below the canal. I wanted to buy. Now I don't know what to do. The oscillators are oversold, but now the downtrend is on.
As I hinted at in Post #900, crashing below 193 is kind of a big deal in terms of using the volume profile to identify potential support. There are a LOT of shares (and new owners) traded above today's price. TSLA might (probably should) get a bounce in here somewhere, but at this point I personally want to see some sideways consolidation to help confirm that downward slide is in check before opening a long-term position.
Insulation and roof membrane are rolling out in wholesale quantities at GF3. I hesitate to comment on the speculative side of Tesla, as I have zero competence in it. None the less..... lol! I'm seeing comments on StockTwits surrounding Tesla nearing insolvency. CNBC and Bloomberg have all but said Tesla is doomed and relentlessly beat the drum of a negative smear campaign. Morgan Stanley has presented a bear case for Tesla stock hitting $10. Meanwhile, I hear projections of $1000 and $4000 per share valuations in the medium term from Tesla fans. Why is rational thought so difficult? Tesla is doing well. They are approximately breaking even while hyper-scaling. Show me any other company that can hyper-scale without raising massive amounts of capital; They don't exist. Tesla just raised $2.4B. That's a 5% capital raise. Considering they are hyper-scaling, that's pretty modest. As for the calls of insolvency, should wait for Tesla to be less flush with cash to make their claims credible. Seriously, these are good for a laugh. I don't know if Tesla is going to do great or go out of business, on the long term, but it is clear they are doing well on the short term. Certainly, nobody can match their pace. Tesla was 6 months late scaling the model 3 ramp. Show any other EV production schedule that is less than 1 year behind schedule. Oh.... as for new "Tesla killer" products that will all have more range than a Tesla at half the price, this is plausible only to stock traders and meth addicts. Tesla owns 60% of global lithium battery production. They have the most efficient car, by a pretty good margin. Tesla has *pack* cost below $100/KWh. No one else is even close. They aren't going to be out-batteried by anyone in the near future. If someone builds a bigger pack, they either will not be able to scale production due to cell supply or they will not be able to compete on price. Perhaps someone could build a massive pack and sell it cheaply but that fire will soon go out. lol! Tesla. Long term. It's a very reasonable business risk. Not guaranteed to do well but strongly looking to succeed.
Speaking if falling demand..... Tesla sold 15805 cars into California in 19Q1. That's over 5K cars per month, just into California, during a period when they dominated in Europe and started volume sales in China. Two days ago, I read an article trashing Tesla for slow rolling Supercharging v3. They first demonstrated the Supercharger v3 in March. It's already June and they haven't finished rolling it out to all 14K charging points. lol! To be a Tesla long, you have to be an independent thinker. The lies and hysteria are beyond comprehension.
The stock is not without risk, but if we are to believe that more and more countries are pushing towards an electric future, Tesla is the name brand associated with electric vehicles!
All the news is bad news in a bear market. Tesla is in a bear market, therefore the news is bad. This principle is as old as the hills, as old as the railroad stocks of the 1800s, as old as the collapse of the tulip market. Stock prices are manipulated by those with the biggest concentrations of capital...period...TSLA is not special in that regard. Those big players are the dog, the news is the tail. The dog wags the tail. Follow the money (the price and volume action), ignore the news. If anyone is chomping at the bit to take a counter-trend long position, this looks like the time to do it with the printing of that buying tail at support. Set a stop 1/2 way into the tail (between the LOD and close) at $190.86. If the price starts chewing its tail you'll be stopped out for a minimal loss. The upside may reach the $220 area and perhaps higher but I suspect not more than the $231 area. If you buy at $195.86 and place the stop at $190.86, the risk is $5. If you can sell at 230.86, the reward is $35. The reward to risk ratio would be 35:5 or 7:1. That's a great edge. Buy only the number of shares that limit your total risk on the trade to 2% of your bag. So if you have a $50,000 bag you can only risk $1000 on the trade and thus $1000 divided by risk per share of $5 gives 200 shares. If the trade stops out, you lose 200 x $5= $1000 but if it works out, you win 200 x $35 = $7000. Once set DO NOT LOWER YOUR STOP. If the trade works out, be on the lookout to reverse your position to trade with the trend. Daily bars:
There was a time when the expression "as goes California so goes the nation" rang true. Not sure that is still the case, but if it is stand by for a Tesla explosion. I live out here in La La land and not a day goes by that I don't see numerous Teslas. Keep in mind, people freakin' love their cars out here and I'd venture to say most Tesla drivers are doing so mostly for social status and don't give a rat's ass about alternative fuel. This state also mandates new home builders add solar roofs to their houses. Not sure that will catch on nationwide based on number of sunny days out there in normal America.
We have been fortunate to have had a long period of low fuel prices. If we ever get hit with another big spike in oil, I think a lot of new car buyers will look to electric. Question is, will there ever be another big spike in oil now that the States is producing so much of it?
Even in our market where oil is subsidized and power sold at fair market price, EVs are starting to squeeze out oil. I recall an early interview in about 2007 when Elon said that EVs would have to be able to compete against gasoline cars without subsidy. That was one of the drivers behind building the Gigafactory. He knew he had to scale to drive cost down or he could not survive. That's why I'm so skeptical about "Tesla killers". Tesla is now the 800# gorilla with massive leads in vehicle platform, charging, and batteries. The Model 3 is already cheaper than it's main competitors, when you factor in fuel cost over the life of the vehicle. Not to mention, if you just factor in the life of the vehicle. Next year, when Tesla brings there 1M mile battery into mass production, it will be a whole new ball game following this ball game in which Tesla pitched a no-hitter. At some point, ICE auto manufacturers will require subsidies to prevent them from going out of business. It is going to happen sooner, rather than later. I suspect in about two years. By the way, I'm not against this. If subsidies allow ICE automakers to bootstrap themselves into the EV world, it might be worth it to save jobs and prevent the economy from imploding. Then again, it might not. For a manufacturer who wants to keep building ICE vehicles at a loss, there is no point wasting money on their existence. By the way, I didn't believe Tesla would ever build the Gigafactory when Elon broached the idea about a decade ago. I was pretty confident Tesla would go out of business like every other EV startup of the time. Somehow, they pulled a rabbit out of a hat. Now the EV market is theirs to lose. Tesla is the incumbent.
Speaking of what an abomination it is to live with an electric car.... A good friend of mine bought a Nissan Leaf new in 2013. I believe he has one of the lowest serial numbers in north America (within the first two dozen, or something... I don't recall. I glaze over when he tells the story... lol!). Whenever we go somewhere, we always take his car. He insists on it. When we go somewhere with our wives, my wife and I ride in his back seats. At this point, the car has a lot of miles on it. The little 20KWh battery is down to about 3/4 capacity. The elevated internal resistance of the battery has noticeably reduced the car's ability to regenatively brake but the car still works fine. In the years he has owned it, he hasn't had it repaired. Ever. He has put two sets of tires on it and I seem to recall he had to replace the front brakes, recently. The car is so simple, it's ridiculous. The only time he spends energizing his transportation is when he puts gas in his truck. He just plugs the car in when he pulls in the garage and then walks inside the house. His transport cost is about $35 per month and he does a lot of miles every day for that. The truck would probably cost about 20x what he spends on electricity. He told me he didn't realize how annoying it was to stand around while pumping gas until he got the EV. Once that activity was removed from his life, it was noticeably aggravating when he has to do it for his truck. He doesn't drive the truck a lot so I imagine he fills the truck every 6 weeks, or so. Most of the population is too busy complaining and explaining how EVs are going to be terrible to notice how wonderful it is to live with one. The EV revolution has only just begun.
New topic.... Has anyone else viewed Musk posted of a Model 3 driving on autopilot at 127mph in the Boring Company test loop tunnel? It was presented as an alternative to the model X they converted to run on rails. The model 3 is silky smooth, by comparison. Autopilot may make the skateboard car hauler idea obsolete and add an order of magnitude efficiency to the idea of tunnels. This doesn't impact the stock but it's interesting to watch the ecosystem evolve.
Speaking of falling Tesla demand, check out this EV sales time lapse graph. It does a brilliant job of illustrating the trend. https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/26/see-why-tesla-scares-the-legacy-players/
