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TSLA - Tesla Inc

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Administrator, Mar 21, 2016.

  1. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    I've read some conflicting opinions on what Maxwell means to Tesla. I've read two orders of magnitude production speed increase of anodes. I've read 4x increase in capacity *or* 4x increase in longevity.

    This morning, I read an article on CleanTechnica citing 10~15% reduction in cell production cost.

    The same article also cited 20% improvement in energy density.

    These numbers worlds away from earlier notions of potential improvements but are still profound.

    If I understand the technology, future energy storage density benefits will come from multi-ion technology. As far as I know, multi-ion is still in the lab.
     
  2. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    This graphic does a nice job of illustrating what Tesla longs hear when people who have never driven an electric car analyse Tesla.

    I understand Tesla is doing a ton of stuff and it seems impossible for them to do a good job at all of it. Perhaps that's why I find it reassuring their solar business has tanked. Still, the EV market is Tesla's to loose. Every time I hear a new Tesla killer hyped, I chuckle.

    People are still hyping the Ford/Rivian partnership. How many cars has Rivian sold, again?

    Rivian could be amazing. The point is, we don't know that at this time. All we know is they came up with an interesting couple of prototypes. Where Ford/Rivian will come up with cells to power their energy hungry vehicles at scale is beyond me. Perhaps I'm the only one who concerns myself with trivialities like.... reality.

    [​IMG]
     
    Onepoint272 likes this.
  3. Unicorn Dreams

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    I don't know about the other stuff on TSLA but I'm fairly certain Elon bought out FSLR because
    1. They're his cousins
    2. Huge tax write off

    It's probably why I don't really trust the guy either, he's a shrewd businessman imo but I do find it extremely ironic that Elon is much more similar to Edison than Tesla.
     
    Onepoint272 likes this.
  4. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    Back in early March, I was pretty sure Audi was lieing about their charge rates. You cannot charge a Li-ion pack at 5C without pretty substantial negative consequence.

    At that time, I knew there were only three options:

    1) They were lieing

    2) They were going to trash their battery packs

    3) They developed new battery technology


    I also posted they were going to have extreme difficulty getting their packs to last 100K miles. The math I used at the time was:

    5C charge rate will cause a *good* cell to have cycle life of around 300 cycles. That is to 50% capacity. At 300 miles per cycle, that is 90K miles.


    Yesterday, someone at CleanTechnica posted an article about this.

    https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/1...charges-over-2-times-faster-than-audi-e-tron/


    From Tesloop data, we know Tesla packs last 300~500K miles and still carry 80% capacity. For those unfamiliar, Tesloop supercharges their Teslas for every charge (which is a worst case usage profile for a battery).

    Meanwhile, Elon has indicated Tesla is working on a 1M mile pack. That would be difficult to believe, were it not for Tesla's work on efficiency and the dry anode technology they just bought from Maxwell. It's plausible.


    While the world is waiting for other manufacturers to catch up, Tesla is padding their lead.


    I'm also looking forward to VW's car that will be as good as Tesla at half the price. lol!

    Over the next two years, it's going to become clear, even to a lot of people who have strong opinions based on no knowledge whatsoever, that Tesla has no peers in the EV market. These folks simply aren't smart enough to realize it, yet.
     
    #904 TomB16, May 19, 2019
    Last edited: May 19, 2019
  5. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    Meanwhile, in Shanghai, the roof on GF3 is 95% done. I count 5 more roof panels remaining to be attached to the tall section. It appears this will be done within 24 hours.

    The walls are 85% done but apertures are not yet filled with doors and windows. It appears this work has not started.

    They have started coating the roof with a white membrane. This is early stages of work, perhaps 5% done. This is the first I've seen this process so we will need a couple more data points before we can predict completion of this phase. If it's a torch down membrane, I expect it will be complete before June. We will see.
     
  6. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    Someone in a private Tesla group just posted some images from Shanghai. A small amount more white membrane has been applied to the roof.

    Of far more significance, a caravan of heavy haul trucks streamed into GF3 with huge loads, covered in giant blue tarps. I suspect it's module and pack production equipment. They will also need to set up a seat shop (Tesla is the only domestic maker that produces their own seats).

    I understand setting up a factory is an epic undertaking. It may be optimistic to think Tesla can get one general assembly line operating in four months but I expect they can. They certainly got GA3 operating in far less time, although GA3 is only the final link in the manufacturing chain.

    If production can begin in earnest in September, that will be an additional 2000 cars per week for 4Q19.

    The next question is: when will they will break ground on GF4. Will they wait until GF3 can carry itself or will they spend some of the 2.7B they just raised to get an early start on GF4?
     
  7. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    Bloomberg is reporting Tesla model 3 production at over 6000 cars per week. That's 312,000 cars per year. Add in the S/X and they have achieved an annual production rate of 400k cars today.

    Note Bloomberg plots an abysmal drop in production starting immediately, just as they always have. Just as they've always been wrong but continue to predict doom. lol!

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

    My thoughts on the relentless lie and smear campaign against Tesla are this:

    How would Ford fare if it was under the same media scrutiny? Ford recalled 874,000 trucks for fire risk. It was barely reported by the media. What if it was reported vigorously? What if there was endless media discussion about each fire incident involving a Ford? What if the articles were hyperbolized with titles like, "Another Ford Fire!" ? Do you think Ford could survive such an onslaught? I don't. Between damage to sales and severely hampering their ability to raise capital, I don't think Ford could survive.

    And yet, Tesla is surviving just such an onslaught. Tesla has some severely positive fans, arguably beyond realistic levels. Without these fans, I doubt Tesla could survive, either. Still, Tesla is surviving. I have no doubt, Tesla will achieve a 500k production rate by the end of 2019. Tesla is thriving.

    I have come to the conclusion that, at this point in time, Tesla is more durable than Ford.
     
  8. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Thats the curious part.

    If anything, you would assume that everybody should be cheering for electric vehicles to dominate, its just a matter of time!

    Never mind that environmental and geopolitical advantages, but its also AMERICAN MADE!

    Why is Tesla not pushing itself as the American patriot brand like Harley?

    Tesla is missing an opportunity to slap the "I AM A PATRIOT!" bumper sticker on every car they make here.
     
    T0rm3nted and Onepoint272 like this.
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Tesla's (TSLA) Shrinking Market Cap

    In late April, we highlighted that Ford (F) had retaken Tesla (TSLA) in terms of market capitalization following a massive jump for Ford in response to earnings. Notwithstanding some weakness today on news of job cuts, in both terms of price and market cap, F has held pretty steady since that gap up. On the other hand, TSLA has continued its fall from grace from the title of largest US auto manufacturer that it earned for the first time back in 2017. Analyst downgrades today were the catalyst of an early 3%+ decline for TSLA, sending the stock to a 52-week low—its lowest level since December of 2016—further diminishing the company's market cap. TSLA is now similar to its size in early 2017. With a market cap of $4.8 billion less than Ford, it is also the lowest of the auto manufacturers. Meanwhile, with a market cap of roughly $52 billion, General Motors (GM) is now distinctively the largest automaker in the country.

    [​IMG]
     
    Onepoint272 likes this.
  10. Rca Jht

    Rca Jht New Member

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    Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG ,NASDAQ: GOOGL ) unit Waymo appears to have a big lead on the front, with Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA ) and myriad other automobile manufacturers launching their own efforts.
     
  11. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    I would love to see this in the $170 range!

    [​IMG]
     
    T0rm3nted and Onepoint272 like this.
  12. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    The CleanTechnica article is obviously incorrect with regard to cost reduction. Maxwell's dry anode should provide wildly improved cell production rates out of the same factory footprint. The solvent doped anode is, by far, the most expensive component in a cell, as far as I understand.

    The storage density improvements are less clear. Based on Elon's comment regarding tripling battery life at the autonomous driving event, it seems unlikely CT is correct here, either.

    Meanwhile, enjoy the fire sale on Tesla stock.
     
  13. Kat

    Kat Member

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    Tesla moved down below the canal. I wanted to buy. Now I don't know what to do. The oscillators are oversold, but now the downtrend is on.
    2018-08-26_192450.png
     
    StockJock-e likes this.
  14. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Let the sellers make their way out and see where support comes in.
     
    Three Eyes likes this.
  15. Three Eyes

    Three Eyes 2018 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    As I hinted at in Post #900, crashing below 193 is kind of a big deal in terms of using the volume profile to identify potential support. There are a LOT of shares (and new owners) traded above today's price. TSLA might (probably should) get a bounce in here somewhere, but at this point I personally want to see some sideways consolidation to help confirm that downward slide is in check before opening a long-term position.
     
    Kat and bigbear0083 like this.
  16. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Play it safe...Sell short the counter-trend rally when it comes and when it peters out.
     
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  17. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    Insulation and roof membrane are rolling out in wholesale quantities at GF3.

    I hesitate to comment on the speculative side of Tesla, as I have zero competence in it. None the less..... lol!

    I'm seeing comments on StockTwits surrounding Tesla nearing insolvency. CNBC and Bloomberg have all but said Tesla is doomed and relentlessly beat the drum of a negative smear campaign. Morgan Stanley has presented a bear case for Tesla stock hitting $10.

    Meanwhile, I hear projections of $1000 and $4000 per share valuations in the medium term from Tesla fans.

    Why is rational thought so difficult?

    Tesla is doing well. They are approximately breaking even while hyper-scaling. Show me any other company that can hyper-scale without raising massive amounts of capital; They don't exist. Tesla just raised $2.4B. That's a 5% capital raise. Considering they are hyper-scaling, that's pretty modest.

    As for the calls of insolvency, should wait for Tesla to be less flush with cash to make their claims credible. Seriously, these are good for a laugh.

    I don't know if Tesla is going to do great or go out of business, on the long term, but it is clear they are doing well on the short term. Certainly, nobody can match their pace. Tesla was 6 months late scaling the model 3 ramp. Show any other EV production schedule that is less than 1 year behind schedule.

    Oh.... as for new "Tesla killer" products that will all have more range than a Tesla at half the price, this is plausible only to stock traders and meth addicts. Tesla owns 60% of global lithium battery production. They have the most efficient car, by a pretty good margin. Tesla has *pack* cost below $100/KWh. No one else is even close. They aren't going to be out-batteried by anyone in the near future. If someone builds a bigger pack, they either will not be able to scale production due to cell supply or they will not be able to compete on price.

    Perhaps someone could build a massive pack and sell it cheaply but that fire will soon go out. lol!

    Tesla. Long term. It's a very reasonable business risk. Not guaranteed to do well but strongly looking to succeed.
     
    #917 TomB16, May 23, 2019
    Last edited: May 23, 2019
  18. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    Speaking if falling demand.....

    Tesla sold 15805 cars into California in 19Q1. That's over 5K cars per month, just into California, during a period when they dominated in Europe and started volume sales in China.

    Two days ago, I read an article trashing Tesla for slow rolling Supercharging v3. They first demonstrated the Supercharger v3 in March. It's already June and they haven't finished rolling it out to all 14K charging points. lol!

    To be a Tesla long, you have to be an independent thinker. The lies and hysteria are beyond comprehension.
     
  19. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    The stock is not without risk, but if we are to believe that more and more countries are pushing towards an electric future, Tesla is the name brand associated with electric vehicles!
     
  20. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    All the news is bad news in a bear market. Tesla is in a bear market, therefore the news is bad. This principle is as old as the hills, as old as the railroad stocks of the 1800s, as old as the collapse of the tulip market. Stock prices are manipulated by those with the biggest concentrations of capital...period...TSLA is not special in that regard. Those big players are the dog, the news is the tail. The dog wags the tail. Follow the money (the price and volume action), ignore the news.

    If anyone is chomping at the bit to take a counter-trend long position, this looks like the time to do it with the printing of that buying tail at support. Set a stop 1/2 way into the tail (between the LOD and close) at $190.86. If the price starts chewing its tail you'll be stopped out for a minimal loss. The upside may reach the $220 area and perhaps higher but I suspect not more than the $231 area. If you buy at $195.86 and place the stop at $190.86, the risk is $5. If you can sell at 230.86, the reward is $35. The reward to risk ratio would be 35:5 or 7:1. That's a great edge. Buy only the number of shares that limit your total risk on the trade to 2% of your bag. So if you have a $50,000 bag you can only risk $1000 on the trade and thus $1000 divided by risk per share of $5 gives 200 shares. If the trade stops out, you lose 200 x $5= $1000 but if it works out, you win 200 x $35 = $7000.

    Once set DO NOT LOWER YOUR STOP. If the trade works out, be on the lookout to reverse your position to trade with the trend.

    Daily bars:
    upload_2019-5-23_22-55-45.png
     
    #920 Onepoint272, May 24, 2019
    Last edited: May 24, 2019
    hipchack, Three Eyes and bigbear0083 like this.

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