The pattern seems to be repeating. Large trading houses (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, et al.) have a sell rating all quarter and raise it to equal weight just before the earnings call. M-S just adjusted their rating to equal weight yesterday. A few days after the earnings call is over, large trading houses will restore their sell rating. An outlier in this seems to be Oppenheimer. Oppenheimer rates Tesla a buy and has for a while. Whatever the case, my OTM calls are now ITM. I expect some nice gains over the next week and then CNBC will again flood the airwaves with analysts who continue to talk about the demand problem and Bob Lutz will explain to us that Tesla was an interesting company that is about to go under.
A rumour has been floating around for several days. I hesitate to comment on it. Again, this is a rumour, not fact. The rumour is that, somehow, Panasonic has found a way to massively increase battery production. It sounds too good to be true. I'm certainly not interested in trading it. My few calls are not connected to the rumour and they will be sold off next week. I'm slightly embarrassed about spreading a rumour. The rumour has a bit of credibility because it seems to have come from the same person who was accurate about the early model 3 ramp difficulties. You never know about these things and the leaked email from Jerome Guillen about new production records is pretty vague. Using the cell production ramp as a guide, Tesla is on track to produce at a rate of about 425K cars annually, by the end of the year. Elon has said that 500K vehicles per year production rate is possible by the start of 2020. That won't be possible without something big. Either Tesla producing their own cells to the tune of 75K vehicles per year or Panasonic finding a way to increase their production by 25%. Whatever the case, I think the best thing a grumpy, old, investor like me can do is not be lured to buy based on rumour nor panic and sell based on fear. Anything could happen. I hold a nice tranche of Tesla. I think I'll just wait several more years and enjoy the ride.
With respect to the calls: I have declared myself a non-trader, anti-trader, long term investor. Why then am I doing something that can accurately be described as trading? This might best be discussed in the investing forum but I'm only doing this with Tesla and it is an experiment. The calls are part of a strategy I have developed and paper tested to arbitrage the influence of media and rating services based on a cynical view they are dishonest. I have allocated an amount of money that is basically a rounding error to this strategy. If I am able to make money on this strategy, it will not be extracted from the folks who are dishonest but from the folks who consume the ill intended content. Shame. So, I think it could best be termed as an attempt to go long on nefarious market influences. By the way, it has become clear the next anti-Tesla campaign will be based on leading questions about gross margin.
I like that you are starting to see the light, that profit from either investing or trading is simply a matter of buying low and selling high and solely dependent on price. Your trading rationale needs improvement imo, but that will come.
Some may remember the great tennis player, John McEnroe, who would throw tirades when a ball was called "in" when he thought it was "out". A lot of the reason he did that was to deflect his opponent's focus from the ball to him. In tennis you have to stay focused on the ball not on what your opponent is doing or what is happening in the stands. In trading you must stay focused on what is happening in the market for the stock (the price and volume action) not on what is happening in the stands (the fundamentals, the news, etc.)
I don't defend my rationale as correct. It's an experiment, as I have documented above. As far as trading goes, I evolved out of that level of thinking three decades ago and have no desire to go back to those levels of return now that I'm eating at the adult table. I see trading primarily as being embraced by gamblers who feel an honest return wouldn't be worth bothering with at their net worth level so they have little to lose by taking risks. As I wind down my business and we sell our real estate, we will soon be living off our returns. I'm confident we will get by just fine. There is no need to hold a charity drive for us. None of this is to say I'm against trading or wish traders badly. I can't think of a single person I wish badly. It's more a case of my decision to manage our money according to the philosophy which I believe will best serve our needs and I respect others decisions in the same regard. Best wishes, Onepoint272.
Gee, I stand ashamed as a childish dishonest gambler and humbled by your magnificence and disingenuous salutation.
I see by your melt down you didn't enjoy my last post. Please consider looking at this from my perspective. How do I know you are getting better returns than me? What information exists that would cause me to think you are a better investor than I am? One of the traps we are faced with in life is to respond to someone who thinks differently than we do by assuming they are dumber than we are. It's not a sign of objectivity, to say the least. When I'm on facebook and someone posts something political, there are always ignorant, profane, responses calling down the a person for even just mentioning the name of someone in the party they hate. Suffice to say, it's not flattering. In order to succeed in life, a person must embrace the idea they could be wrong. Without this, we cannot learn. I thought this site was a philosophical buffet where some of us share and those who read can decide who they wish to follow, if anyone. The vast bulk of what I have shared are objective events and data. I've shared a bit of philosophy and I've shared a couple of predictions; most recently, I predicted the price would ramp from last week to a couple of days after the Q2 earnings call. I've alluded to a strategy I've been working on for 18 months to objectify anti-Tesla forces and attempt to profit from them. If it bears fruit over a reasonable length of time, I may share it. I encourage you to be critical of the information and philosophy I provide. I do not suggest my returns or net worth are beyond yours. I'm not going to share my personal information so you will never know how well I'm doing or even what most of my holdings are. I have simply shared with the site that which what I felt had value. That is a positive thing. I encourage you to share that with you feel is of value so we have the opportunity of benefiting from your contributions, also. Just keep in mind that trading is a redistribution of wealth. The people most interested in wealth redistribution tend to be those who have the least. It tends to be far less appealing to those who have some. Please have a great weekend, Onepoint272. I wish you well in the markets and also in life.
I think people have been trading since the dawn of time, but it's bad huh, redistribution of wealth, oooh. Hmmm, yeah I guess that's why poor people make such good traders and you wealthy people don't like doing it at all. Maybe that's why Warren Buffet hires poor people in Manhattan to do his trading.
Onepoint272, there may be an interesting discussion with regard to where trading gains come from. I would be happy to explain it to you. I invite you to the Investment forum where this discussion would be more appropriate. Sunday GF3 update. Considering it's been two weeks and they've been hard at work, there aren't many visible changes. They've had torrential rains and there is a huge amount of standing water on the site, so it's tough to fault them. A lot of HVAC and interior walls have been installed. Most of the walls I've seen have been framed with steel studs and no further finishing. They still need electrical, drywall, paint, etc. Quite a bit more interior floor has been poured. The concrete work is really coming along. I suspect the story on the floor is they have to let it cure for a few weeks before they can drive on it with equipment so they are essentially growing the floor in 10*10m pours, at this point. A lot of concrete trucks have been seen coming to the site so they are pouring something. The substation doesn't look much further along but I believe the walls were poured 10 days ago. As I understand concrete, they will need to let the walls cure for three weeks, or so, before they can pour the roof. I expect the walls to be de-formed in the next week and they will start working on roof forms. It may end up with a steel roof but I doubt it. The concrete forms on the substation obscure the view inside but I speculate a lot of equipment has been placed inside the building. It's difficult to imagine the substation could be operational in two months but I've heard a September target. Production can't begin until the substation comes online. It seems pretty clear the factory will be worked on for the remainder of the year. When they talk about production beginning in September or October, that does not rely on the factory being 100% complete. They primarily need the paint line, general assembly line, stamping equipment, inventory storage, and power in place to be functionally complete to start production. If they can build cars in a tent, they can build cars in a factory where the interior walls have not been drywalled. It's all pretty impressive. Where I live, it takes a year to install a substation. If they continue on pace, it will be a warning to the west of the strength of Chinese industrial power.
Junior, I don't care from where my trading gains come, and I'm much too old to endure further insults from the so-called "adult" table.
I can't answer your question about the truck but here is what we know: - It was developed off the side of Franz' desk (no formal project, Elon liked a sketch Franz drew and wants to build it) - A prototype is said to exist - there have been no visual leaks about this project - Elon has said it will be presented later this summer. Back to my own speculation: - There has been discussion of a big production ramp -> this means new battery availability -> either Panasonic has made a breakthrough or Tesla has their own cell manufacturing online -> I predict Panasonic is the source of the new capacity - I think it will need to be built at GF1. That means 2021 availability. - I expect there is a lot of work to turn the exterior design into a functional, mass producible, product.
Stochastic is some price information programmed in a certain way. With the help of indicators, including stochastics, I can work with large amounts of information. Nothing will predict your future price direction. But if you look at the bare graph, then most likely you will not see anything there. Indicators as signal lights. In this case, the overbought stochastic speaks of the intention of the market to move down. Because earlier it was often that way, in a similar situation.
Thanks, but I think you'd be surprised with practice what you can get from reading just price and volume, particularly as the price comes into support and resistance. Although I find indicators useful for scanning for divergences, personally I don't find them helpful at the hard right edge of the chart because the indicator goes where the price goes
Another CNBC attack article yesterday. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/15/tes...-describe-pressure-to-make-model-3-goals.html I notice the subsequent Tesla attack coverage include "alleged" accusations. lol! https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/16/ban...-on-capitol-hill-alleged-tesla-shortcuts.html
I've been thinking Tesla will fall just shy of breaking even on this earning call. This is based on non-objective information. To break even while hyper-scaling is an epic feat more rare than an competent Goldman Sachs analyst. I believe it will be two years before Tesla net earnings get into the billions. TomB16's expectations: 2019Q2 EPS -> $-0.15 2019Q3 EPS -> $0.20 2019Q4 EPS -> $0.50 2020Q1 EPS -> $1.25 Once spending on GF4 starts to ramp, EPS will decline sharply but it will not be nearly as severe as the GF3 ramp. I don't think there will be a much financial impact until fall of 2020. If they build in Germany, they won't start until the spring thaw of 2020 and initial site preparations aren't a significant expense, in the grand scheme. I look forward to reading the earning expectations of other people.
I just read an extremely plausible Q2 earnings estimate of about $1.45. This man dug deep into Solar, generation, storage, etc. and carefully analyzed Tesla financials. His analysis was so good, I consider it far more plausible than my own pessimistic forecast. My best case analysis came in at $0.45. This may be of interest to you traders..... If Tesla can break even this quarter, they have an excellent chance of hitting numbers in Q3 that will make them profitable over the last year. If Tesla makes $1.45, they will be profitable on the year this quarter. Even the most pessimistic forecasts I can see would have Tesla achieving an annual profit in Q4. I believe Tesla being profitable over a 12 month period will be a game changer. As best I can tell, it will happen in 2H2019.
I get it. Seriously, traders should ignore everything I have to say about Tesla. The only thing I was confident of, when I bought Tesla in 2016, was they would do well over the next decade. I have no idea what the price will do, day to day. Actually, I don't believe any retail investor can predict micro-fluctuations in price but it could be I'm just not sufficiently knowledgeable in the ways of short term trading to understand. Tesla IPOed 9 years ago (June 2010). Tesla released their first mass production vehicle 7 years ago (June 2012). Since the first Model S was released, Tesla has scaled to annualized production volume of 380,000 cars. In terms of ramp speed for an automotive startup, Tesla is shooting up like Keith Richards. As for the moon landing, that will have to wait for autopilot v4.0.
