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TSLA - Tesla Inc

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Administrator, Mar 21, 2016.

  1. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    Further...

    I believe the contract with Panasonic is for 10 years at 35GWh production level. That contract was cut 18 months ago.

    Even if the new Tesla batteries are the best EV batteries known to man, and they might be, Tesla will need Panasonic for 8.5 more years. It's going to take years for Tesla to redesign their cars to use a new form factor.

    8.5 years from now, Tesla will probably have figured out how to make tightly wound cylindrical cells which don't fracture the anode away from the cathode during formation. I doubt they will go that way, however, because pouch cells seem to be more efficient.

    The advantage of 18650 batteries was they were a standard package that was widely available. Laptops drove EVs, in the early days. That efficiency is no longer of any significance since BEVs consume the majority of lithium batteries the planet uses.
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  2. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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  3. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    I don't understand the Ford/Rivian relationship. Why would Ford invest $0.5B into Rivian and then partner with VW for a pickup truck platform? There are rumors that Ford and VW have other EV projects, as well.

    Meanwhile, Ford is pouring money into Argo AI to develop self driving technology. Apparently, FSD is a huge investment for Ford and they are trying to mitigate their risk.

    Meanwhile, over at the startup Tesla, FSD is marching toward being a full retail product.

    I think it's a race for survival now, among non-Tesla auto makers.
     
  4. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    Sunday GF3 update:

    Lots of progress inside, more floor poured, mechanical systems being installed, some windows, the final wall that was left open to bring in large equipment is now being sheathed. I have no view into the factory production gear so I cannot report on that.

    Meanwhile, they are pouring the walls of the substation. There was a concrete pump at the substation all day, yesterday.

    I expect the walls of the substation will be allowed to cure for 2~3 weeks and then the roof will be poured. Did I mention I think it will have a concrete roof?
     
  5. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    Speaking of the demand problem...


    Here are the global EV sales in for 2019 until June 1 (first 5 months). Thank you, Tesla Stock Channel.

    Tesla started shipping globally a couple of weeks into January so it has taken a while for them to ramp. Also, there was a minor re-tooling the factory in February.

    EV sales jan-may.png


    Here are the global EV sales for May. Notice Tesla is ahead of even the largest Chinese manufacturer. By May, Tesla was dominating and the lead is getting wider.

    EV sales - may.png


    Here is the global EV sales by model for May. The model 3 is absolutely dominating.

    EV sales by model - may.png



    At this point, we know Tesla has 40% extra battery module capacity and perhaps 30% extra model 3 production capacity. The production ramp can be 100% attributed to increased cell production. It's clear, Panasonic is improving their game.

    The numbers are in a weird spot. It appeared there were problems in January but there were not. It was just a matter of a few weeks to fill the shipping pipeline. The second quarter looks unreal, but some of the delivery numbers came from the 1st quarter pipeline. The third quarter will be another nice, but small, bump.

    The fourth quarter will feature production from GF3. Even if Tesla only manages to produce 5000 cars at GF3 the entire quarter, that will push them over 100K cars shipped for the quarter.

    Meanwhile, we can see solar and storage shipments are ramping like Bo Duke running from Rosco P. Coltrane.

    I'm not sure about Q2 earnings. It will be tight. I expect a tiny loss.

    I expect income in Q3 and Q4.

    From here, Tesla should be able to build GF4 and maintain positive cash flow. Perhaps the best move a trader could make is to start thinking of shorting some traditional automakers later in 2019.
     
    #1005 TomB16, Jul 7, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2019
  6. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Take it with a grain of salt, but one of our Summer interns has a friend who had a Summer internship last Summer and this Summer at Tesla in Las Vegas (I believe that was the plant he's in). He said that all the workers in that place are extremely miserable and angry, management is always pissed off, every interaction with anybody there's always someone yelling. He also said their FTC (first time capability) coming off the line is like 10% - in other words, only 10% of the vehicles they build come off the line and ship immediately. 90% need to go to repair, or somewhere else before going out the door.

    Obviously it's word of mouth, but it's one of our interns who's in the same field as his college friend who's an intern in that same field, so I'm sure they share stories and info with each other about the field.

    One of my coworkers just retired and is now working at Rivian, speaking of them. If I hear anything from him I'll pass it on. They took over an old Mitsubishi plant and are re-purposing it for their launch. Still getting set up as far as I know.
     
    Onepoint272 likes this.
  7. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    The pattern seems to be repeating.

    Large trading houses (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, et al.) have a sell rating all quarter and raise it to equal weight just before the earnings call. M-S just adjusted their rating to equal weight yesterday.

    A few days after the earnings call is over, large trading houses will restore their sell rating.

    An outlier in this seems to be Oppenheimer. Oppenheimer rates Tesla a buy and has for a while.

    Whatever the case, my OTM calls are now ITM. I expect some nice gains over the next week and then CNBC will again flood the airwaves with analysts who continue to talk about the demand problem and Bob Lutz will explain to us that Tesla was an interesting company that is about to go under.
     
    Wildebeestmode likes this.
  8. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    A rumour has been floating around for several days. I hesitate to comment on it. Again, this is a rumour, not fact.

    The rumour is that, somehow, Panasonic has found a way to massively increase battery production. It sounds too good to be true. I'm certainly not interested in trading it. My few calls are not connected to the rumour and they will be sold off next week.

    I'm slightly embarrassed about spreading a rumour. The rumour has a bit of credibility because it seems to have come from the same person who was accurate about the early model 3 ramp difficulties. You never know about these things and the leaked email from Jerome Guillen about new production records is pretty vague.

    Using the cell production ramp as a guide, Tesla is on track to produce at a rate of about 425K cars annually, by the end of the year.

    Elon has said that 500K vehicles per year production rate is possible by the start of 2020. That won't be possible without something big. Either Tesla producing their own cells to the tune of 75K vehicles per year or Panasonic finding a way to increase their production by 25%.

    Whatever the case, I think the best thing a grumpy, old, investor like me can do is not be lured to buy based on rumour nor panic and sell based on fear. Anything could happen. I hold a nice tranche of Tesla. I think I'll just wait several more years and enjoy the ride.
     
  9. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    With respect to the calls: I have declared myself a non-trader, anti-trader, long term investor. Why then am I doing something that can accurately be described as trading?

    This might best be discussed in the investing forum but I'm only doing this with Tesla and it is an experiment.

    The calls are part of a strategy I have developed and paper tested to arbitrage the influence of media and rating services based on a cynical view they are dishonest. I have allocated an amount of money that is basically a rounding error to this strategy. If I am able to make money on this strategy, it will not be extracted from the folks who are dishonest but from the folks who consume the ill intended content. Shame.

    So, I think it could best be termed as an attempt to go long on nefarious market influences.


    By the way, it has become clear the next anti-Tesla campaign will be based on leading questions about gross margin.
     
    #1009 TomB16, Jul 13, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2019
  10. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    I like that you are starting to see the light, that profit from either investing or trading is simply a matter of buying low and selling high and solely dependent on price. Your trading rationale needs improvement imo, but that will come.
     
    bigbear0083 likes this.
  11. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Some may remember the great tennis player, John McEnroe, who would throw tirades when a ball was called "in" when he thought it was "out". A lot of the reason he did that was to deflect his opponent's focus from the ball to him. In tennis you have to stay focused on the ball not on what your opponent is doing or what is happening in the stands. In trading you must stay focused on what is happening in the market for the stock (the price and volume action) not on what is happening in the stands (the fundamentals, the news, etc.)
     
    #1011 Onepoint272, Jul 13, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2019
    bigbear0083 likes this.
  12. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    I don't defend my rationale as correct. It's an experiment, as I have documented above.

    As far as trading goes, I evolved out of that level of thinking three decades ago and have no desire to go back to those levels of return now that I'm eating at the adult table. I see trading primarily as being embraced by gamblers who feel an honest return wouldn't be worth bothering with at their net worth level so they have little to lose by taking risks.

    As I wind down my business and we sell our real estate, we will soon be living off our returns. I'm confident we will get by just fine. There is no need to hold a charity drive for us.

    None of this is to say I'm against trading or wish traders badly. I can't think of a single person I wish badly. It's more a case of my decision to manage our money according to the philosophy which I believe will best serve our needs and I respect others decisions in the same regard.

    Best wishes, Onepoint272.
     
    #1012 TomB16, Jul 13, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2019
  13. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Gee, I stand ashamed as a childish dishonest gambler and humbled by your magnificence and disingenuous salutation.
     
    #1013 Onepoint272, Jul 13, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2019
    bigbear0083 likes this.
  14. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    I see by your melt down you didn't enjoy my last post. Please consider looking at this from my perspective. How do I know you are getting better returns than me? What information exists that would cause me to think you are a better investor than I am?

    One of the traps we are faced with in life is to respond to someone who thinks differently than we do by assuming they are dumber than we are. It's not a sign of objectivity, to say the least.

    When I'm on facebook and someone posts something political, there are always ignorant, profane, responses calling down the a person for even just mentioning the name of someone in the party they hate. Suffice to say, it's not flattering.

    In order to succeed in life, a person must embrace the idea they could be wrong. Without this, we cannot learn.

    I thought this site was a philosophical buffet where some of us share and those who read can decide who they wish to follow, if anyone.

    The vast bulk of what I have shared are objective events and data. I've shared a bit of philosophy and I've shared a couple of predictions; most recently, I predicted the price would ramp from last week to a couple of days after the Q2 earnings call. I've alluded to a strategy I've been working on for 18 months to objectify anti-Tesla forces and attempt to profit from them. If it bears fruit over a reasonable length of time, I may share it.

    I encourage you to be critical of the information and philosophy I provide. I do not suggest my returns or net worth are beyond yours. I'm not going to share my personal information so you will never know how well I'm doing or even what most of my holdings are. I have simply shared with the site that which what I felt had value. That is a positive thing. I encourage you to share that with you feel is of value so we have the opportunity of benefiting from your contributions, also.

    Just keep in mind that trading is a redistribution of wealth. The people most interested in wealth redistribution tend to be those who have the least. It tends to be far less appealing to those who have some.

    Please have a great weekend, Onepoint272. I wish you well in the markets and also in life.
     
  15. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    I think people have been trading since the dawn of time, but it's bad huh, redistribution of wealth, oooh.

    Hmmm, yeah I guess that's why poor people make such good traders and you wealthy people don't like doing it at all. Maybe that's why Warren Buffet hires poor people in Manhattan to do his trading.
     
    #1015 Onepoint272, Jul 13, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2019
    bigbear0083 likes this.
  16. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    Onepoint272, there may be an interesting discussion with regard to where trading gains come from. I would be happy to explain it to you. I invite you to the Investment forum where this discussion would be more appropriate.


    Sunday GF3 update.

    Considering it's been two weeks and they've been hard at work, there aren't many visible changes. They've had torrential rains and there is a huge amount of standing water on the site, so it's tough to fault them.

    A lot of HVAC and interior walls have been installed. Most of the walls I've seen have been framed with steel studs and no further finishing. They still need electrical, drywall, paint, etc.

    Quite a bit more interior floor has been poured. The concrete work is really coming along.

    I suspect the story on the floor is they have to let it cure for a few weeks before they can drive on it with equipment so they are essentially growing the floor in 10*10m pours, at this point. A lot of concrete trucks have been seen coming to the site so they are pouring something.
    The substation doesn't look much further along but I believe the walls were poured 10 days ago. As I understand concrete, they will need to let the walls cure for three weeks, or so, before they can pour the roof. I expect the walls to be de-formed in the next week and they will start working on roof forms. It may end up with a steel roof but I doubt it.

    The concrete forms on the substation obscure the view inside but I speculate a lot of equipment has been placed inside the building. It's difficult to imagine the substation could be operational in two months but I've heard a September target. Production can't begin until the substation comes online.

    It seems pretty clear the factory will be worked on for the remainder of the year. When they talk about production beginning in September or October, that does not rely on the factory being 100% complete. They primarily need the paint line, general assembly line, stamping equipment, inventory storage, and power in place to be functionally complete to start production. If they can build cars in a tent, they can build cars in a factory where the interior walls have not been drywalled.

    It's all pretty impressive. Where I live, it takes a year to install a substation. If they continue on pace, it will be a warning to the west of the strength of Chinese industrial power.
     
    Wildebeestmode likes this.
  17. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Junior, I don't care from where my trading gains come, and I'm much too old to endure further insults from the so-called "adult" table.
     
    bigbear0083 likes this.
  18. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Any news on the pickup truck from Tesla?
     
  19. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    I can't answer your question about the truck but here is what we know:

    - It was developed off the side of Franz' desk (no formal project, Elon liked a sketch Franz drew and wants to build it)
    - A prototype is said to exist
    - there have been no visual leaks about this project
    - Elon has said it will be presented later this summer.


    Back to my own speculation:

    - There has been discussion of a big production ramp
    -> this means new battery availability
    -> either Panasonic has made a breakthrough or Tesla has their own cell manufacturing online
    -> I predict Panasonic is the source of the new capacity
    - I think it will need to be built at GF1. That means 2021 availability.
    - I expect there is a lot of work to turn the exterior design into a functional, mass producible, product.
     
    #1019 TomB16, Jul 15, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2019
  20. Kat

    Kat Member

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    Stochastic is some price information programmed in a certain way. With the help of indicators, including stochastics, I can work with large amounts of information. Nothing will predict your future price direction. But if you look at the bare graph, then most likely you will not see anything there. Indicators as signal lights. In this case, the overbought stochastic speaks of the intention of the market to move down. Because earlier it was often that way, in a similar situation.
     

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