A Wyckoff Student Notebook

Zooming into AG's 65-minute chart shows the trading range that began on June 25th with break-out on Tuesday July 16th. Using 65-minute data and a 10-cent-box by 3-box-reversal PnF count gives a short-term target of $10.20. Below is the 65-minute vertical bar chart which shows that the monthly and weekly pivots have been tagged.

 

Hmmm, well it's just Support/Resistance (S/R) and actually there are two in that area, the Jan 2018 swing low and a swing high from late May 2019. The strength of S/R seems to be dependent on the time frame and on the vertical rise or fall from where it originated. The weekly swings are more important than the daily or intraday and the long swings are more important than the short ones.

What I'm about to say initially here, I know you already know, but it's for the benefit of background: When you and I buy we generally try to let the price come to us, we place a limit order and wait for the ask to come to us and even if for some reason we buy the ask we are such small timers we can't move the price up. But in every time frame there are traders (the composite man/operator, CM/CO) with enough capital who can move the price up with an end game of selling into a climax. They do this by taking out the asks. They chase the stock up, absorbing all sellers. It gets easier and easier for them as it moves up because the would-be sellers realize the price is moving higher and they no longer want to sell and then demand from the public overcomes supply with their market orders eager to buy the ask. But eventually it gets to a point, the swing point, where there is nobody left to buy, nobody in the whole world is willing to buy the ask. That is significant.

That January 2018 swing low (the reverse of the example) was important because it was a swing point on the weekly chart and it came from a lofty height and it was the point after about 3 weeks of decline where absolutely nobody was willing to sell the bid.

The May 2019 swing high was also on the weekly and was a long swing as well, where nobody was willing to buy the ask after about 8 weeks of uptrend.

In a nutshell, I guess the market has a memory since it is composed of thinking beings with memories and memory tools, like charts.

Weekly bars:


There was something else going-on in that area and that was the pivot-support-1 level at about 9121. The use of pivots is a very old practice and was very practical for floor traders and I'm convinced that professionals are still using them. The 3-hour intraday chart below shows the monthly pivot in black and the weekly pivot in magenta. The weekly R1, S1, and S2 levels are also shown. S/R is yellow. The weekly pivot is the average of the previous week's high, low, and close. The monthly uses the same for the previous month. You can also plot the daily pivots which use the previous day's H, L, and C. The monthly is stronger than the weekly which is stronger than the daily. Pivots supposedly have a 70 to 80 percent chance of being hit and there is a whole set of rules for their use, like don't go long when price is below the pivot or short when above the pivot, wait for price to tag the pivot before taking a position, etc.

3-Hour bars:


pivot = (high + low + close) / 3.0;

pivotPoint.r1 = pivot * 2 - low;
pivotPoint.s1 = pivot * 2 - high;
pivotPoint.r2 = pivot + (high - low);
pivotPoint.s2 = pivot - (high - low);
pivotPoint.r3 = pivot * 2 + (high - 2 * low);
pivotPoint.s3 = pivot * 2 - (2 * high - low);
pivotPoint.r4 = pivot * 3 + (high - 3 * low);
pivotPoint.s4 = pivot * 3 - (3 * high - low);
pivotPoint.r5 = pivot * 4 + (high - 4 * low);
pivotPoint.s5 = pivot * 4 - (4 * high - low);

 

Riding a rocket named Majestic Silver. Silver futures are up again tonight.

Note that the upward thrust is shortening.

30-minute bars:

 

Thanks, I was a day late but I'll take it and maybe sooner than later; silver seems to be at some strong resistance here....trailing a stop.

Weekly bars as of Thursday premarket:

 

I've been watching Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) for some time. It's been in a downtrend all year and is now just under the demand line of a long-term up channel. It has dividend yield of 4.4%. I've never been on a cruise, it's just not my thing, to be crowded onto a giant floating city of tiny houses destined for a series of tourist traps, but I figure retired boomers don't need to spend on much but cruises are probably one thing on which they'll splurge.

The upside PnF targets did not pan out and so the downside target of $30 may also be suspect.

The big picture in Monthly bars:


Zooming in on the 65-minute chart, it's been in a trading range (TR) since the last ER plunge. It needs to show a change of character and SOS to reverse the trend. One encouragement for bulls is that it has shown diminishing volume through the TR. I'm leaning toward some sort of reversal, either a mark-up phase out of this range or at least a UTAD, but just watching for now.

As a side note for those who like to cruise, according to a work mate of mine who cruises, if you own 100 shares of CCL you get like a 10% discount on tickets.

65-minute bars:

 

Long term, a conservative count gets AG up to $19, but as I posted on the "What Stocks are You Watching this Weekend" thread, in response to a post by @Bodacious about MAG, since my AG hit 10.24 on Friday and since the silver futures showed a change of character, I sold the AG at the close at 9.90. I'll get back in once silver is done consolidating or perhaps even when it retraces down to the 15.56 area.

Silver Futures 1-hour bars (as of Monday night 9:20 cdt):

 

It did retrace to 1385 and went into a trading range. Appears to sell off when up thrusting the top of the range so far.

Daily:


But I really like the looks of the 3-hour chart. Last night it came down and tested the PS line at 1415. Note the higher supports. It's been struggling to get above the weekly pivot but once it does...could be explosive enough to break the TR.

3-Hour bars:

 

Heads up guys. Feast your eyes on this. I don't think there's a better example of a classic Wyckoff accumulation than this. The 3rd best buy point, at the BUC, approaches maybe next week, the first being the test after the spring and the second-best at the LPS. The cause points to a price projection of $53, a potential five-bagger, set it and forget it.

Weekly Bars:

 

Yep, I just checked and it is working fine....oh yeah, I did notice they now require you to put a zero in the one's place, e.g., 0.25. Try that.