80KWh battery with range estimated as 280 miles. It will be very interesting to see how epa epa rates the range. Why do you suppose they wouldn't put a 120KWh battery in the eqs and beat tesla, once and for all? Lol.
I shouldn't put down the eqs. I strongly suspect it will be an excellent ev. I think mbz is going to be sewing some infertile ground with their customer base. Audi will have an easier time. I like any ev. I tend to look at Mercedes as the domain of geezers and pimps, neither of which seem likely to nerd out with an electric vehicle.
It's interesting that 5% of the world's oil supply disappears and TSLA's stock price went down...not a good sign considering it is in the electric car business and solar business. Another sign I think that the stock is held by weak public hands and wants to go much lower (sub 100) to where the smart money can find value and flush the public out of the stock.
Can you imagine the mood at other car companies that are trying to bootstrap their own EV programs as we see images leak of Model 3 sample runs coming out of GF3? It appears they are running sample runs of 6+ cars at a time. It will take a bit of time to get the robots calibrated and the QC dialed in. I don't see anything wrong with Tesla running a prototype drivetrain at Nurbergring and blowing away the Porsche Taycan but it's not all that useful of an exercise. I suppose it shows the world that Tesla has all sorts of kung-fu in development. That's worth something. As far as a direct comparison goes, the Taycan is near shipping while the Tesla Plaid drivetrain is a year out. I'm confident Porsche will beat their tools into weapons by then.
This pic, taken yesterday, will give us something to look at while we discuss sub $100 valuations and the inevitable bankruptcy of Tesla. Bodies in white are rolling through Gigafactory 3. More pics here -> https://m.weibo.cn/status/4417863399973668?
Daimler stops developing internal combustion engines. https://electrek.co/2019/09/19/daim...combustion-engines-to-focus-on-electric-cars/
It's almost impossible to believe the progress at GF3. The only negative aspect of the GF3 project is how much garbage and debris is strewn around the grounds and the rooftop of every building. This is not a tentative project. What I find most striking is how bold and future looking this development is. This building is going to be there for 100 years. They have an outdoor test track finished. The substation is externally complete but they are adding more service structures around the perimeter of this rather large substation. Foundations for the battery factory are substantially complete. In two weeks, we are going to see another massive vertical structure take shape. I suspect some of the ground work being done is for landscaping and even more buildings to come. I'm staggered by the scale and scope of this project. Even more humbling is to consider GF3, in it's current state, is less than half the current size of GF1.
Yeah, it's an awesome scar on the landscape, totally void of any redeeming architectural value. I hope Tom is right, that it'll only be there for 100 years.
Let's consider some GF3 operational possibilities. Tesla likely has battery pack and module assembly lines inside the phase one building at GF3. LG will ship cells to GF3 where they will be assembled into modules and then further assembled into packs. It's possible the batts will be shipped to Nevada where they will be built into modules and packs. Tesla definitely needs the new battery source because they are desperately short on cells. I think it's far more likely they are building modules and packs in Shanghai, though. Assuming the battery assembly lines are inside the general assembly building, that could mean there will be no room for a second GA line before they get phase 2 online and cranking out packs. This assumes all battery lines will be moved to the battery plant once it is completed. One GA line should be able to produce 3000 cars per week with perhaps a 3 month production ramp. I expect it to take 6 months to bring production online in the dedicated battery plant. That means they won't be able to tear down the battery lines and build the second GA line until roughly April 2020. Motors are probably also built inside the phase 1 building and I expect this equipment is up and running. I'm not sure what the plan is for a seat factory. Tesla has a facility near the Freemont factory where they build their own seats. My guess is they will outsource the seats for the Asian versions of their cars. I expect the running gear will be manufactured in the phase 1 building of GF3 and that is likely where it will stay. If this shopping list of assumptions turns out to be true, Tesla won't see full GF3 production until mid 2020. I expect GF3 will make a real contribution to Tesla's bottom line in 19Q4 and a major contribution in 20Q2. This would mean: 19Q3 -> probably another loss 19Q4 -> probably a small profit 20Q1 -> would be another small profit, unless GF4 money starts flowing, in which case it would be roughly break even 20Q2 -> roughly break even 20Q3 -> reasonable profit 20Q4 -> even better profit and Tesla approximately achieving 1M vehicle per year production rate It's less easy to predict other factors which will blow modify my predictions out of the water: - robotaxi fleet operational start (2023?) - Heavy truck tooling and manufacturing ramp (end of 2020?) - Truck line (2021?) - Van line (2022?) - Roadster (irrelevant) - major energy storage ramp of 4x annual or more (2021?) - LG battery availability? If Tesla soaks up huge amounts of LG cells, will this cramp other car makers? We are going to find out the minimum delivery numbers on these contracts for various manufacturers in the near future.
With GF3 sampling cars and most facilities now online, it's clear they will be pumping out a few hundred cars in the next few weeks. It's also clear the few samples they have built will not make any difference at all on the Q3 financials. The Q4 ramp will start to make a difference but just. It's difficult to imagine a positive Q3. I would assume similar losses to last quarter, were it not for Elon's projection of a profitable quarter. It does seem clear they will break 100K deliveries this quarter. That's a rate of 400K vehicles per year and they are on the cusp of GF3 coming online. If we re-visit Elon's February projection, "annualized production rate at end of 2019 probably around 500k, ie 10k cars/week", for which he got in trouble, we can see there is a very real chance of that projection being accurate. They are currently building 7800 cars per week at Freemont. If GF3 can produce 2000 cars per week over the next three months, they will have hit the half million cars per year production rate. Meanwhile: There is no visible progress on the GA5 line at Freemont The battery plant at GF3 is being frantically built. There is daily visible progress. GF1 expansion is difficult to determine. There is a tiny bit of groundwork activity but it is not necessarily the start of a building extension.
Leaked email. You gotta give the circus barker credit for knowing how to manage the stock price in the face of a decline, and wonder who was owed a favor.
Tesla Motos seems to be turning up. The week closed above the Tenkan and Kijun lines. Stochastic has not yet reached level 80 and can move up. And the fall down last week was repulsed, and the candle turned out in the form of a hammer.
Gas prices popped at the pump to $4.19 out here in SoCal, yet declined nationwide. The reason for the hike we are told is because of "refinery maintenance". That would seem reasonable if it weren't the same excuse every time there is a spike. Wouldn't common sense dictate that you have a backup plan that doesn't screw the consumer if indeed the price increase is due to maintenance? Anyway, this is good news for the EV advocates. In a few months look back on October EV sales data and see if there is an increase. If yes, chalk up another victory for the tree huggers out here in LaLa Land.
We pay almost half that in NC. Im looking forward to the day when gas prices are $1 because demand dries up.
Four days ago, when I posted the last update, activity at GF3 had mostly quiesced. Activity was small scale landscape operations. Between Thursday and today, they have worked as hard as they ever have at GF3. Two more small buildings are going up on the south side of the property, near the electrical substation. Several structural vertical steel columns are in place for the battery plant. They also have a fully completed 20 station Supercharger between the battery building and the south side of the plant. Lots of groundwork. There appears to be a moat along the west side of the property. There is a massive amount of work happening at GF3. This is not going to be a makeshift facility. Tesla is going to have a tremendous presence in the Chinese market. If this works out, I expect GF5~10 will be in China. The quick build, high return, massive market opportunity could make Tesla a world beater. Time will tell.
‘They Don’t Need Us Anymore’: Auto Workers Fear Electric Unrest Batteries require fewer people and assembly hours than engines Transition to plug-in cars poses social, political challenges https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-us-anymore-auto-workers-fear-electric-unrest
