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TSLA - Tesla Inc

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Administrator, Mar 21, 2016.

  1. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    While the rest of the world busies itself with throwing shade on Tesla, Tesla has been aggressively advancing battery tech.

    A year ago, Tesla was citing $100/KWh at the module level. As some might recall, VW dismissed this number as a lie and said the industry all pays $250/KWh at the cell level. This was said at the same time VW said they would make a car with similar capabilities/features to Tesla at half the price.

    With their dry anode technology, Tesla should easily achieve $30~40/KWh at the module level.

    I'm not familiar with the new cathode but, hopefully, it will reduce internal resistance and we will have a whole new ball game.

    The next step on the horizon is multi-ion. If we can achieve multi-ion reactions, people will start complaining about the weight, cost, and limited range of gasoline vehicles.
     
    StockJock-e likes this.
  2. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Let’s consider why all of the Tesla killers are dead and why Tesla isn’t going to be dethroned any time soon.

    Batteries.

    Tesla has the most efficient motors. That helps a lot. Still, their motors were so efficient that a 5% is a huge deal, at this point. We are hitting a wall for motor efficiency.

    I don’t think it’s possible to dominate the world EV market for long, if the only competitive advantage is having the best motors. It’s too easy to copy. Even though Audi motors are upsettingly inefficient, at the moment, we can be sure they will be world class two generations from now. They will figure it out.

    Batteries, however, are another story.

    Why doesn’t Ford design an F-150e with 200KWh and build 2m per year? Why don’t they just kill Tesla and be done with it?

    Non-Tesla EV manufacturers are starved for batteries. When they design cars, they need to stretch their battery supply across as many vehicles as they can. That’s why the Audi inefficient motor is doubly tragic. They can't just add cells to increase capacity to compensate for their sophomoric motor. If they could at least get 300+ miles of range, like the Model X, with their 95KWh battery, they might do OK. Why would anyone buy an e-Tron with 205 miles of range when they could have an X with 325 miles of range with about the same battery size for about the same price?

    Audi needs to build the e-Tron and they have a lot of loyal customers who will buy it but it will not knock the world on it’s ear like the 3 or even the S.

    Ford needs to wait for LG Chem, CATL, or whoever, to scale up production high enough they can supply enough cells for Ford while also fulfilling their other contracts. If they build a truck or van with a massive battery, they will not be able to build as many as they could if they try to get away with the smallest battery possible.

    Remember, Tesla produces only 350K cars per year because thats how many batteries they can produce. They are starved for cells. This, with the largest batter manufacturing facility in the world. They account for comfortably half of the global Li-ion battery production.

    How is Ford, or anyone, going to build 1M electric trucks or cars per year when the company with half the global production can only build 350K because of their battery limit?

    Think about global battery demand and what that is doing to battery prices. VW is not going to be building a Tesla equivalent at half the price any time soon. They should focus on staying in business while they ramp their EV program.

    You don’t need to be a battery scientist to understand that nobody is going to out-battery Tesla any time soon. It’s going to take a long time for the world to ramp up battery production and Tesla isn’t standing still. We will be lucky to have enough batteries to produce 2M EVs by the start of 2021 and half of that production will be coming from Tesla.

    Tesla doesn't need to build the best car to win the short and medium term race. Good on them for putting a lot of resource into developing a great car. The 3 is a world beater but I'm confident the e-Tron will also be a very good car.

    ... and when the e-Tron comes out, it will not sell in as high of numbers as analysts expect. Why isn't it selling millions? ... and people will, again, be confounded by the lack of interest in the car. No problem, the next car on the drawing board will be declared the hair apparent and will surely sell by the millions, killing Tesla once and for all.
     
    #1142 TomB16, Sep 14, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2019
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  3. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Tesla's move to dry anodes is not going to have an impact on the current models. At this point, I'm pretty confident the Tesla truck will contain the new battery architecture. They will circle back and convert the legacy models to the new architecture in time but I wouldn't expect it right away.

    Tesla is doing their best to secure large quantities of additional lithium. That tells me Panasonic is ramping production at GF1.

    As far as I understand, the 18650 and 20700 cells produced at GF1 are not compatible with Maxwell anodes due to mechanical issues. That's why Tesla is developing pouch cells.

    I think the Tesla truck prototype will be driving around in the next few months with prismatic cells that feature dry anodes. They could also be pouch cells but my bet is on prismatic. Either way, they aren't so different.

    I believe the new batteries will be flooding out of GF1 in the form of energy storage by mid 2020. Converting energy storage products to the new design as early as possible will release 20700 battery production for the car platforms.
     
    #1143 TomB16, Sep 14, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2019
  4. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Tesla has a huge efficiency problem. Even though they have the best batteries, best motors, and four production lines operating around the clock, they also have two of three Gigafactories that are not pulling their weight.

    Can you imagine if Ford or GM had 66% facility overhead? It would kill them.

    Tesla is doing OK, even with the overhead. GF2 is doing a lot better than it was but it wasn't doing anything, until this summer. GF3 isn't online yet, so it's a total liability.

    Imagine the cash flow when GF3 comes online as GF2 continues to scale solar production?

    Why then, is Elon predicting losses in the first two quarters of next year? That, surely, must be due to GF4 construction and GF1 expansion. I expect GF1 expansion to start this year. We will see.

    Meanwhile, Tesla has applied for a permit to build GA5 at Freemont. That would only make sense if they have found new battery capacity so consider my previous diatribe on batteries. I doubt they will scale up the Panasonic footprint so that means energy storage will be receiving Tesla batteries.

    Ignore articles which cite GA5 construction work as a sign the model Y is near production. GA1 is a dual purpose production line for the S and X. GA2~4 are dual purpose lines for the 3 and Y. GA5 will either be another dual purpose 3/Y line or it will be dedicated to the pickup truck and hopefully a van platform of some kind.

    Tesla has been wanting to build a van for some time. There was talk of Tesla buying van bodies from Mercedes or Chrysler (the Sprinter) and fitting them out with Tesla drivetrains. There was also talk of Tesla building a truck in conjunction with GM but that would have been a terrible idea. Can you imagine going into your GM dealer with a problem with your Sierra e1500? That's not going to end well.

    Tesla needs a lot more service resource so I predict a Tesla van will be a surprise release in 2020, shortly after the truck and based on the same platform. GA5 will most likely be a dual purpose T/V line.
     
    #1144 TomB16, Sep 14, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2019
  5. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I also predict the S/X will be converted to Tesla batteries long before the 3. That should happen by Q2 or Q3 2020, enabling further expansion of 3/Y production.
     
    #1145 TomB16, Sep 14, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2019
  6. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Now that phase 1 of GF3 is approximately complete and the substation is connected, I believe we will see sampling in the near future.

    I don't have any view into the spot testing process so this isn't based on anything other than speculation but I suspect spot testing is done or nearly so. I think we will see sampling soon, while we waiting on substation certification.
     
  7. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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  8. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    80KWh battery with range estimated as 280 miles.

    It will be very interesting to see how epa epa rates the range.

    Why do you suppose they wouldn't put a 120KWh battery in the eqs and beat tesla, once and for all?

    Lol.
     
  9. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I shouldn't put down the eqs. I strongly suspect it will be an excellent ev.

    I think mbz is going to be sewing some infertile ground with their customer base. Audi will have an easier time.

    I like any ev. I tend to look at Mercedes as the domain of geezers and pimps, neither of which seem likely to nerd out with an electric vehicle.
     
    #1149 TomB16, Sep 17, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2019
  10. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    It's interesting that 5% of the world's oil supply disappears and TSLA's stock price went down...not a good sign considering it is in the electric car business and solar business. Another sign I think that the stock is held by weak public hands and wants to go much lower (sub 100) to where the smart money can find value and flush the public out of the stock.
     
    #1150 Onepoint272, Sep 17, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2019
    bigbear0083 and OldFart like this.
  11. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Can you imagine the mood at other car companies that are trying to bootstrap their own EV programs as we see images leak of Model 3 sample runs coming out of GF3?

    It appears they are running sample runs of 6+ cars at a time. It will take a bit of time to get the robots calibrated and the QC dialed in.


    I don't see anything wrong with Tesla running a prototype drivetrain at Nurbergring and blowing away the Porsche Taycan but it's not all that useful of an exercise. I suppose it shows the world that Tesla has all sorts of kung-fu in development. That's worth something. As far as a direct comparison goes, the Taycan is near shipping while the Tesla Plaid drivetrain is a year out. I'm confident Porsche will beat their tools into weapons by then.
     
  12. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    This pic, taken yesterday, will give us something to look at while we discuss sub $100 valuations and the inevitable bankruptcy of Tesla.

    Bodies in white are rolling through Gigafactory 3.

    More pics here -> https://m.weibo.cn/status/4417863399973668?

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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  14. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    It's almost impossible to believe the progress at GF3. The only negative aspect of the GF3 project is how much garbage and debris is strewn around the grounds and the rooftop of every building.

    This is not a tentative project. What I find most striking is how bold and future looking this development is. This building is going to be there for 100 years.

    They have an outdoor test track finished. The substation is externally complete but they are adding more service structures around the perimeter of this rather large substation.

    Foundations for the battery factory are substantially complete. In two weeks, we are going to see another massive vertical structure take shape.

    I suspect some of the ground work being done is for landscaping and even more buildings to come.

    I'm staggered by the scale and scope of this project. Even more humbling is to consider GF3, in it's current state, is less than half the current size of GF1.

    GF comparison.jpg
     
    #1154 TomB16, Sep 21, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2019
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  15. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Current price 223.14.

    Someone big is getting out of this position.
     
  16. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    I love these updates :D
     
  17. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, it's an awesome scar on the landscape, totally void of any redeeming architectural value. I hope Tom is right, that it'll only be there for 100 years.
     
  18. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Let's consider some GF3 operational possibilities.

    Tesla likely has battery pack and module assembly lines inside the phase one building at GF3. LG will ship cells to GF3 where they will be assembled into modules and then further assembled into packs.

    It's possible the batts will be shipped to Nevada where they will be built into modules and packs. Tesla definitely needs the new battery source because they are desperately short on cells. I think it's far more likely they are building modules and packs in Shanghai, though.

    Assuming the battery assembly lines are inside the general assembly building, that could mean there will be no room for a second GA line before they get phase 2 online and cranking out packs. This assumes all battery lines will be moved to the battery plant once it is completed.

    One GA line should be able to produce 3000 cars per week with perhaps a 3 month production ramp.

    I expect it to take 6 months to bring production online in the dedicated battery plant. That means they won't be able to tear down the battery lines and build the second GA line until roughly April 2020.

    Motors are probably also built inside the phase 1 building and I expect this equipment is up and running.

    I'm not sure what the plan is for a seat factory. Tesla has a facility near the Freemont factory where they build their own seats. My guess is they will outsource the seats for the Asian versions of their cars.

    I expect the running gear will be manufactured in the phase 1 building of GF3 and that is likely where it will stay.

    If this shopping list of assumptions turns out to be true, Tesla won't see full GF3 production until mid 2020. I expect GF3 will make a real contribution to Tesla's bottom line in 19Q4 and a major contribution in 20Q2.

    This would mean:

    19Q3 -> probably another loss
    19Q4 -> probably a small profit
    20Q1 -> would be another small profit, unless GF4 money starts flowing, in which case it would be roughly break even
    20Q2 -> roughly break even
    20Q3 -> reasonable profit
    20Q4 -> even better profit and Tesla approximately achieving 1M vehicle per year production rate


    It's less easy to predict other factors which will blow modify my predictions out of the water:

    - robotaxi fleet operational start (2023?)
    - Heavy truck tooling and manufacturing ramp (end of 2020?)
    - Truck line (2021?)
    - Van line (2022?)
    - Roadster (irrelevant)
    - major energy storage ramp of 4x annual or more (2021?)
    - LG battery availability? If Tesla soaks up huge amounts of LG cells, will this cramp other car makers? We are going to find out the minimum delivery numbers on these contracts for various manufacturers in the near future.
     
    #1158 TomB16, Sep 24, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2019
  19. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    With GF3 sampling cars and most facilities now online, it's clear they will be pumping out a few hundred cars in the next few weeks. It's also clear the few samples they have built will not make any difference at all on the Q3 financials. The Q4 ramp will start to make a difference but just.

    It's difficult to imagine a positive Q3. I would assume similar losses to last quarter, were it not for Elon's projection of a profitable quarter.

    It does seem clear they will break 100K deliveries this quarter. That's a rate of 400K vehicles per year and they are on the cusp of GF3 coming online.

    If we re-visit Elon's February projection, "annualized production rate at end of 2019 probably around 500k, ie 10k cars/week", for which he got in trouble, we can see there is a very real chance of that projection being accurate.

    They are currently building 7800 cars per week at Freemont. If GF3 can produce 2000 cars per week over the next three months, they will have hit the half million cars per year production rate.


    Meanwhile:

    There is no visible progress on the GA5 line at Freemont

    The battery plant at GF3 is being frantically built. There is daily visible progress.

    GF1 expansion is difficult to determine. There is a tiny bit of groundwork activity but it is not necessarily the start of a building extension.
     
  20. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Leaked email. o_O You gotta give the circus barker credit for knowing how to manage the stock price in the face of a decline, and wonder who was owed a favor.
     
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