I took a look at the weekly bars here: https://stockaholics.net/threads/a-wyckoff-student-notebook.804/page-46#post-109300
Looks like I bought a day early, but it didn't quite hit my stop, so I'm still in. Hopefully this is the start of the bounce.
I probably should add more on news like this, demand should increase. Shut-offs begin: First wave of PG&E blackouts affect 141,000 in northern Bay Area https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea...n-PG-E-imposes-mass-blackouts-on-14503033.php
An interesting and informative article. SunPower Partners with Hannon Armstrong to Safe Harbor 200 Megawatts of Solar Please read the entire article at: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rel...-harbor-200-megawatts-of-solar-300931605.html
Apparently solar panels are not helpful during blackouts https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ing-that-solar-panels-don-t-work-in-blackouts
SPWR- Sunpower has complete home systems with energy storage which allows usage during blackouts. https://us.sunpower.com/ SunPower Equinox® System Built by SunPower and backed by the industry’s only complete-system warranty. Generates more power in less space with fewer visible parts for a minimalist design. Eliminates unnecessary hardware and utility boxes on exterior walls. Easily add energy storage to provide backup power during an outage and to help reduce peak-time charges. A complete home solar + storage solution Gone are the days of clunky, piecemeal systems. SunPower Equinox® is the only home solar + storage system designed by one company. From record-breaking panels to seamless energy storage, every component is designed to work together perfectly. Explore SunPower Equinox® System SunPower Equinox® Home Solar
@T0rm3nted and @Onepoint272 's recent analyses of this one had me looking closer. I have sold some pretty far out-of-the-money puts, so I'm officially long on this one. But having set aside a little time to look more closely, my spidey-sense is tingling that maybe it's too early? For starters, the volume-by-price profile for the past 6 months is a little too top heavy for my liking. There are a LOT of buyers above 10. Moreover, it doesn't look like very many holders have been shaken out sub-10, in part owing to that mid-June gap where the profile indicates it was predominately buyers. [Aside: This volume profile data helps to demonstrate why gaps are important.] Anyhow, we're only a couple weeks peeking below 10, so hardly much time to begin shaking out all the buyers above 10. Hope I'm wrong, but I see all the supply tied up above, and not sure at the current price point how the MM creates more supply without moving the price down. It certainly looks like the least-resistance path to creating more supply. I honestly don't think this gets tested until about 8, which conveniently served as resistance in April to May, when it then began to flip over to support before the up-gap. The question being, of course, will 8 hold?
I like your analysis, "top heavy" is a good way to describe it and I agree. I do take issue with one thing where you said "...in part owing to that mid-June gap where the profile indicates it was predominately buyers..." Since every trade has a buyer and a seller I think what you meant to say is that the profile indicates more trade volume when price was up-ticking. So usually the question becomes, were the buyers of high-quality, the big boys, or were the buyers the low-quality weak hands of the public? In the case of the mid-June gap-up my take is that it was likely both. The biggest big boys were already positioned and they allowed it to gap up and may have initiated the gap up, above the remaining resistance (weak sellers). That excited the funds and specs (the public) into a mark-up. Apparently though there was too much public involvement and/or the biggest and/or the lesser dogs took an opportunity for profit and it is therefore going back down to test for and mop up, force out, the weak hands that previously held since their sell-price was gapped over. I believe there is a good chance that supply (trading volume) will continue to dry up and the big dogs will support it in the 8.00 to 8.45 area. Then I suspect it will have to build cause between 8 and 12 or 11.65 (the top of the Oct 7th reaction high). So it should be a profitable trading range if my hypothesis is correct. That swing low of the first down wave at 9.80 on Oct 3rd may prove to be Preliminary Support, the approximate center of the ensuing trading range. If so, and the selling climax reaches 8.00, then 1/2 the range will be 9.80 - 8.00 = 1.80 and 1.80 plus 9.80 equals 11.60, giving a range of 8 to 11.60...the best laid plans of mice and men. "The best laid schemes of Mice and Men oft go awry, And leave us nothing but grief and pain, For promised joy!" Robert Burns, To a Mouse (Poem, November, 1785) Scottish national poet (1759 - 1796). Daily bars:
I know, I know, I'm such an anal-retentive. Believe me it's a well honed trait I've acquired in my job, reviewing technical documents destined for public scrutiny. Sometimes I can't turn it off.
I think that's a bonus in a forum like this, where there are potentially a lot of lurkers and, judging from the introductions, quite a few newbies to personal finance/investing who could be following along to beef up their own knowledge base. A little more precision on our part isn't gonna hurt!
Just thought I'd chime in regarding volume profile. I don't mean to sound mysterious, but not all chart time frames are relevant when using it as a tool. In furthering that, six months is definitely not one I'd be concerning myself that is unless it's a benchmark in the industry I'm not aware of. You also want to compare prior period vs. developing (the latter becoming more important as the time period draws to a close).
Agreed. One need only change the period (and/or periodicity) of review to see how dramatically the profiles can change. I respectfully disagree about not using it for 6 month periods to help establish expected short-term levels of support and resistance, although I agree it is prudent to widen the period to confirm the shorter period volume profile data are relevant. For shorter-term trade set-ups, I find them particularly useful to delineate how much uptick and downtick volume there has been (relative to that timeframe) after a gap up or down in price, particularly when there was no similar earlier move to the gapped price area. In other words, the volume profile data to that portion of prices on the other side of the gap is unique. The relevance of the volume profile data in those instances may be of higher value in anticipating potential support/resistance levels.
Tried to lose the 200MA today, and bounced off the gap up level from back in June. Got bought back up off that bounce and sitting right at the open price just above the 200MA now.
